{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "26.81036199999823882629845870",
|
"price_label": "当前价格处于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "WITHIN_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "0.2629715331705965762359692402"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "31.8236776",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "14630942836.68287556"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "11704754269.346300448"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "9753961891.12191704"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "8360538763.818786034285714286"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "7315471418.34143778"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "5852377134.673150224"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "4876980945.56095852"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "3901584756.448766816"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "2926188567.336575112"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "1.17332",
|
"profit": "10788682606.02084"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "1.45992",
|
"profit": "13423970877.665041"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "1.758666666667",
|
"profit": "16170947803.207064"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池26家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-06",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260806",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.17332",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "16.84110046705076194047659632",
|
"profit_max": "10788682606.02084",
|
"profit_mean": "10788682606.02084",
|
"profit_median": "10788682606.02084",
|
"profit_min": "10788682606.02084"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.45992",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000007449360618502321395114465703",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "13.53498821853252132172060235",
|
"profit_max": "13423970877.665041",
|
"profit_mean": "13423970877.665041",
|
"profit_median": "13423970877.665041",
|
"profit_min": "13423970877.665041"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.758666666667",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000006193075459691880932541178419",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "11.23578468536557389813680192",
|
"profit_max": "16170947803.207064",
|
"profit_mean": "16170947803.207064",
|
"profit_median": "16170947803.207064",
|
"profit_min": "16170947803.207064"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-06",
|
"code": "600031.SH",
|
"company": "三一重工",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-30",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "2.375728542277960294512751281",
|
"annual_fcf": "17203942000.0",
|
"book_value_per_share": "9.850486491940340974519531926",
|
"current_fcf": "3096718000.0",
|
"deduct_pe": "23.20169822722261198201923271",
|
"diluted_shares": "9195004437.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "147489468675.120",
|
"market_cap": "181693287675.120",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.8516617967565641969684239316",
|
"normalized_pe": "23.20169822722261198201923271",
|
"normalized_profit": "7831034000.0",
|
"pb": "2.005992294509272603082693645",
|
"price": "19.76",
|
"ps": "1.960654582780383855315482380",
|
"reported_pe": "21.58031561102164180602439675",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "8419399000.0",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "7831034000.0",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.9156492590825706852239118718",
|
"ttm_revenue": "92669708000.0"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-588365000.0",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [],
|
"status": "PASS",
|
"warning_count": 0
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.988",
|
"implied_margin": "0.09803272913901919276577411898",
|
"implied_profit": "9084664383.756",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.7904",
|
"implied_margin": "0.07842618331121535421261929519",
|
"implied_profit": "7267731507.0048",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.6586666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.06535515275934612851051607932",
|
"implied_profit": "6056442922.504",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.5645714285714285714285714286",
|
"implied_margin": "0.05601870236515382443758521084",
|
"implied_profit": "5191236790.717714285714285714",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.494",
|
"implied_margin": "0.04901636456950959638288705949",
|
"implied_profit": "4542332191.878",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.3952",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03921309165560767710630964759",
|
"implied_profit": "3633865753.5024",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.3293333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03267757637967306425525803966",
|
"implied_profit": "3028221461.252",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.2634666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.02614206110373845140420643173",
|
"implied_profit": "2422577169.0016",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1976",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01960654582780383855315482380",
|
"implied_profit": "1816932876.7512",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.07386041858522474",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.2034653759258358",
|
"equity_value_high": "123800132904.12",
|
"equity_value_low": "58258886072.52",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "13.46384700000335627896772052",
|
"price_low": "6.335928000000811745122162794",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.3186312246961864231291639413",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.6793558704453030493359229355"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与26家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.13840575087066176",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.04326280051222864",
|
"equity_value_high": "347395579913.76",
|
"equity_value_low": "145647215181.36",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "37.78090399998792300745901206",
|
"price_low": "15.83982000000855464513790533",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.911989068825299747341043120",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.1983896761129273965011181513"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.2943382966547219",
|
"cagr_low": "0.16031422894346758",
|
"equity_value_high": "660051601836.22",
|
"equity_value_low": "382135137905.36",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "71.78371759998531907179328749",
|
"price_low": "41.55899440001107636224624043",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "2.632779230768487807276988233",
|
"upside_to_low": "1.103187975709062568939587066"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
