{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "26.60899999982680671366894216",
|
"price_label": "当前价格处于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "WITHIN_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "0.006727047233190717166618915040"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "42.5657793",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "1744969677.706294545"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "1395975742.165035636"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "1163313118.47086303"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "997125530.1178825971428571429"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "872484838.8531472725"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "697987871.082517818"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "581656559.235431515"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "465325247.388345212"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "348993935.541258909"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "0.902",
|
"profit": "739543678.126"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "1.024",
|
"profit": "839570650.112"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "1.198",
|
"profit": "982232069.1739999"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池5家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-06",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260806",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.902",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "29.30155210643015521064301552",
|
"profit_max": "739543678.126",
|
"profit_mean": "739543678.126",
|
"profit_median": "739543678.126",
|
"profit_min": "739543678.126"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.024",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "25.810546875",
|
"profit_max": "839570650.112",
|
"profit_mean": "839570650.112",
|
"profit_median": "839570650.112",
|
"profit_min": "839570650.112"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.198",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0000000000000001018089340985315107317565366",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "22.06176961602671343139409702",
|
"profit_max": "982232069.1739999",
|
"profit_mean": "982232069.1739999",
|
"profit_median": "982232069.1739999",
|
"profit_min": "982232069.1739999"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-06",
|
"code": "600038.SH",
|
"company": "中直股份",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-28",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "-16.53176954691419202344401327",
|
"annual_fcf": "-11561108106.30",
|
"book_value_per_share": "21.48705130703405029893813745",
|
"current_fcf": "3844872797.31",
|
"deduct_pe": "56.25528833862719067089508802",
|
"diluted_shares": "819893213.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "16211717552.350",
|
"market_cap": "21669777619.590",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.4698224963474604588536824490",
|
"normalized_pe": "56.25528833862717314607768592",
|
"normalized_profit": "385204276.07000012",
|
"pb": "1.230043137252053505485203017",
|
"price": "26.43",
|
"ps": "0.7450896906079473306877479342",
|
"reported_pe": "44.42853051508967177118437137",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "487744639.95",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "385204276.07",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.5948880076288666631516560682",
|
"ttm_revenue": "29083448466.33"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-102540363.87999988",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 1
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.3215",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03725448453039736653438739671",
|
"implied_profit": "1083488880.9795",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.0572",
|
"implied_margin": "0.02980358762431789322750991737",
|
"implied_profit": "866791104.7836",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.881",
|
"implied_margin": "0.02483632302026491102292493114",
|
"implied_profit": "722325920.653",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.7551428571428571428571428571",
|
"implied_margin": "0.02128827687451278087679279812",
|
"implied_profit": "619136503.4168571428571428571",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.66075",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01862724226519868326719369835",
|
"implied_profit": "541744440.48975",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.5286",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01490179381215894661375495868",
|
"implied_profit": "433395552.3918",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.4405",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01241816151013245551146246557",
|
"implied_profit": "361162960.3265",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.3524",
|
"implied_margin": "0.009934529208105964409169972456",
|
"implied_profit": "288930368.2612",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.2643",
|
"implied_margin": "0.007450896906079473306877479342",
|
"implied_profit": "216697776.1959",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.11466850449945931",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.2267518695248779",
|
"equity_value_high": "11786477370.25",
|
"equity_value_low": "5990303792.88",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "14.37562500014254905168973511",
|
"price_low": "7.306200000072448459211724198",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.4560868331387609136704602683",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.7235641316658173114183986304"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与5家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.06555298938705367",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.0854190959785156",
|
"equity_value_high": "29766633044.40",
|
"equity_value_low": "13866443964.75",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "36.30549999979082641826918014",
|
"price_low": "16.91249999986278700906870417",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.373647370404495891724146051",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.3601021566453731740798825513"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.2140464337608008",
|
"cagr_low": "0.08605942506430297",
|
"equity_value_high": "57151935445.44",
|
"equity_value_low": "32743296349.05",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "69.70655999983256356093290408",
|
"price_low": "39.93605000002603997650118370",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "1.637402951185492378393223764",
|
"upside_to_low": "0.511012107454636397143442440"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
