{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "7.09598980007798648765139633",
|
"price_label": "当前价格处于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "WITHIN_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-0.2598665234696007363095463240"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "14.3979594",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "1080314679.19019073"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "864251743.352152584"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "720209786.12679382"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "617322673.8229661314285714286"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "540157339.595095365"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "432125871.676076292"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "360104893.06339691"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "288083914.450717528"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "216062935.838038146"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "no_usable_forecasts",
|
"detail": [],
|
"summary": {}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-06",
|
"code": "600072.SH",
|
"company": "中船科技",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-30",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": null,
|
"annual_fcf": "-5337668698.25",
|
"book_value_per_share": "5.068564142912847491179568809",
|
"current_fcf": "-1804365478.20",
|
"deduct_pe": null,
|
"diluted_shares": "1500649709.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "27569345796.940",
|
"market_cap": "13415808398.460",
|
"normalized_eps": "-2.197976192897126293981775596",
|
"normalized_pe": null,
|
"normalized_profit": "-3298392334.26000044",
|
"pb": "1.763813132857441030833364853",
|
"price": "8.94",
|
"ps": "1.176460194669405815942283612",
|
"reported_pe": null,
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "-3274877440.97",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "-3298392334.26",
|
"ttm_eps": "-2.182306384580786934334453664",
|
"ttm_revenue": "11403537883.60"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-23514893.29000044",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 1,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "补充法定披露、行情接口或机构预测汇总页来源。",
|
"field": "institutions",
|
"issue_id": "QA-CORE-SOURCE-MISSING",
|
"message": "核心字段没有由注册表中允许承载核心数字的来源支持。",
|
"recalc_scope": "institutions",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
},
|
{
|
"action": "使用正常化情景、PB 或反向估值。",
|
"field": "metrics.ttm_attributable_profit",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-TTM-PROFIT",
|
"message": "TTM 归母利润不为正，报告 PE 不适用。",
|
"recalc_scope": "PE 模块",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
},
|
{
|
"action": "检查主营盈利恢复条件。",
|
"field": "metrics.ttm_deduct_profit",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-TTM-DEDUCT",
|
"message": "TTM 扣非利润不为正，扣非 PE 不适用。",
|
"recalc_scope": "扣非 PE 模块",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
},
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
},
|
{
|
"action": "不得以公司业绩预告或自有情景冒充机构预期。",
|
"field": "institutions",
|
"issue_id": "QA-INSTITUTION-NONE",
|
"message": "估值日没有可用机构盈利预测，已明确记录为空。",
|
"recalc_scope": "机构预期模块",
|
"severity": "INFO"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 4
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.447",
|
"implied_margin": "0.05882300973347029079711418060",
|
"implied_profit": "670790419.923",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.3576",
|
"implied_margin": "0.04705840778677623263769134448",
|
"implied_profit": "536632335.9384",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.298",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03921533982231352719807612040",
|
"implied_profit": "447193613.282",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.2554285714285714285714285714",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03361314841912588045549381748",
|
"implied_profit": "383308811.3845714285714285714",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.2235",
|
"implied_margin": "0.02941150486673514539855709030",
|
"implied_profit": "335395209.9615",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1788",
|
"implied_margin": "0.02352920389338811631884567224",
|
"implied_profit": "268316167.9692",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.149",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01960766991115676359903806020",
|
"implied_profit": "223596806.641",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1192",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01568613592892541087923044816",
|
"implied_profit": "178877445.3128",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.0894",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01176460194669405815942283612",
|
"implied_profit": "134158083.9846",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "亏损继续且现金消耗偏高，按归母净资产折价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.10729187893454817",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.19399128864163406",
|
"equity_value_high": "7606139306.1099990",
|
"equity_value_low": "4563683583.6659994",
|
"method": "pb",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "5.068564142912847491179568809",
|
"price_low": "3.041138485747708494707741285",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.4330465164527016229105627730",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.6598279098716209737463376639"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "业务逐步接近盈亏平衡，按成长型资产的中性净资产倍数定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.004069989338749469",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.10729187893454817",
|
"equity_value_high": "13691050750.9979982",
|
"equity_value_low": "7606139306.1099990",
|
"method": "pb",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "9.123415457243125484123223856",
|
"price_low": "5.068564142912847491179568809",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.020516270385137078760987009",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.4330465164527016229105627730"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "核心产品或订单放量并形成可持续盈利，给予成长溢价。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.11207412645726844",
|
"cagr_low": "0.004069989338749469",
|
"equity_value_high": "22818417918.3299970",
|
"equity_value_low": "13691050750.9979982",
|
"method": "pb",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "15.20569242873854247353870643",
|
"price_low": "9.123415457243125484123223856",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.700860450641895131268311681",
|
"upside_to_low": "0.020516270385137078760987009"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
