{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "79.3847083333110659148109052",
|
"price_label": "当前价格处于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "WITHIN_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-0.1519850852891040841811040756"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "147.2811395",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "2962610012.528505625"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "2370088010.02280450"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "1975073341.685670416666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "1692920007.159146071428571429"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "1481305006.2642528125"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "1185044005.01140225"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "987536670.8428352083333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "790029336.6742681666666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "592522002.505701125"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "3.474166666667",
|
"profit": "1397680787.4793007"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "4.550833333333",
|
"profit": "1830831081.8956993"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "5.9375",
|
"profit": "2388696476.5625"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池13家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-06",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260806",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "3.474166666667",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000004931383518858075586784796499",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "26.32285919884612047685793599",
|
"profit_max": "1397680787.4793007",
|
"profit_mean": "1397680787.4793007",
|
"profit_median": "1397680787.4793007",
|
"profit_min": "1397680787.4793007"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "4.550833333333",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000003764683737433216216881389309",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "20.09522065555906133618353601",
|
"profit_max": "1830831081.8956993",
|
"profit_mean": "1830831081.8956993",
|
"profit_median": "1830831081.8956993",
|
"profit_min": "1830831081.8956993"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "5.9375",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "15.40210526315789473684210526",
|
"profit_max": "2388696476.5625",
|
"profit_mean": "2388696476.5625",
|
"profit_median": "2388696476.5625",
|
"profit_min": "2388696476.5625"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-06",
|
"code": "688213.SH",
|
"company": "思特威",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-30",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "0.1077145466426912676294902841",
|
"annual_fcf": "-487570950.95",
|
"book_value_per_share": "13.57098173671074766265121933",
|
"current_fcf": "290951132.19",
|
"deduct_pe": "35.34734418793189720214083519",
|
"diluted_shares": "402306775.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "38312637879.7299997",
|
"market_cap": "36790954573.750",
|
"normalized_eps": "2.587181642665600056076609697",
|
"normalized_pe": "35.34734418793189849263521657",
|
"normalized_profit": "1040840702.999999962",
|
"pb": "6.738642920181624013869332612",
|
"price": "91.45",
|
"ps": "3.916797524515558130489076511",
|
"reported_pe": "35.15482730113145194783302420",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "1046540614.71",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "1040840703.0",
|
"ttm_eps": "2.601349715549781631194254683",
|
"ttm_revenue": "9393121381.30"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-5699911.710000038",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 1
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "4.5725",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1958398762257779065244538255",
|
"implied_profit": "1839547728.6875",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.658",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1566719009806223252195630604",
|
"implied_profit": "1471638182.950",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.048333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1305599174838519376829692170",
|
"implied_profit": "1226365152.458333333333333333",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.612857142857142857142857143",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1119085007004445180139736145",
|
"implied_profit": "1051170130.678571428571428571",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.28625",
|
"implied_margin": "0.09791993811288895326222691277",
|
"implied_profit": "919773864.34375",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.829",
|
"implied_margin": "0.07833595049031116260978153022",
|
"implied_profit": "735819091.475",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.524166666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.06527995874192596884148460852",
|
"implied_profit": "613182576.2291666666666666667",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.219333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.05222396699354077507318768681",
|
"implied_profit": "490546060.9833333333333333333",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.9145",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03916797524515558130489076511",
|
"implied_profit": "367909545.7375",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.15299899293890906",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.27152921407389863",
|
"equity_value_high": "16038387036.36",
|
"equity_value_low": "7547476252.44",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "39.86606250009088213838804977",
|
"price_low": "18.76050000013049742948027659",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.5640671131756054440854231846",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.7948551120816785409570226726"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与13家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.04112904445587939",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.125015939583616",
|
"equity_value_high": "45005321356.8",
|
"equity_value_low": "18868690630.98",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "111.8681666665941680947331797",
|
"price_low": "46.90125000002796373488863070",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.223271368688837267301620336",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.4871377802074580236753566900"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.18373716310561083",
|
"cagr_low": "0.06116544432810089",
|
"equity_value_high": "85510110577.92",
|
"equity_value_low": "49505853492.48",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "212.5495166665289193799930414",
|
"price_low": "123.0549833332535849042064976",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "1.324215600508790807873078638",
|
"upside_to_low": "0.345598505557720994031782369"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
