{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "42.58499999998724370286937804",
|
"price_label": "当前价格处于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "WITHIN_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "0.3462486791121676776776146114"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "44.8365984",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "10",
|
"required_profit": "2397521147.51287776"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "12",
|
"required_profit": "1997934289.59406480"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "15",
|
"required_profit": "1598347431.67525184"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "18",
|
"required_profit": "1331956193.062709866666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "1198760573.75643888"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "959008459.005151104"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "799173715.83762592"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "685006042.1465365028571428571"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "599380286.87821944"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "479504229.502575552"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "399586857.91881296"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "319669486.335050368"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "239752114.751287776"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "C1汇总快照缺逐家报告日期；仅作市场预期锚，不替代法定利润。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "1.113333333333",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "595326208.0864884"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "1.361666666667",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "728116035.9385116"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "1.591666666667",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "851102587.9085116"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池6家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-13",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260813",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.113333333333",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000004247587231423604613915708402",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "25.00598802395958369329605248",
|
"profit_max": "595326208.0864884",
|
"profit_mean": "595326208.0864884",
|
"profit_median": "595326208.0864884",
|
"profit_min": "595326208.0864884"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.361666666667",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000003472935459717776693385874749",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "20.44553243573550833952718936",
|
"profit_max": "728116035.9385116",
|
"profit_mean": "728116035.9385116",
|
"profit_median": "728116035.9385116",
|
"profit_min": "728116035.9385116"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.591666666667",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000002971087194334580044386094374",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "17.49109947643612699875843752",
|
"profit_max": "851102587.9085116",
|
"profit_mean": "851102587.9085116",
|
"profit_median": "851102587.9085116",
|
"profit_min": "851102587.9085116"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-13",
|
"code": "002158.SZ",
|
"company": "汉钟精机",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-25",
|
"market": "深圳证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "1.660859314030082385379731632",
|
"annual_fcf": "736315737.27",
|
"book_value_per_share": "8.342536634127901227963826784",
|
"current_fcf": "34339705.21",
|
"deduct_pe": "34.67585615451222099723472901",
|
"diluted_shares": "534724139.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "13759670008.170",
|
"market_cap": "14886720029.760",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.8028640987535442457367723210",
|
"normalized_pe": "34.67585615451222745891331311",
|
"normalized_profit": "429310813.93999992",
|
"pb": "3.337114503772304196885786888",
|
"price": "27.84",
|
"ps": "4.947455369631916933088488087",
|
"reported_pe": "31.49811218514772708878294181",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "472622611.23",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "429310813.94",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.8838624942458414057121891032",
|
"ttm_revenue": "3008964996.66"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-43311797.29000008",
|
"basis": "2025年报+2026最新累计期-2025同期",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [],
|
"status": "PASS",
|
"warning_count": 0
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.784",
|
"implied_margin": "0.4947455369631916933088488087",
|
"implied_profit": "1488672002.976",
|
"pe": "10"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.32",
|
"implied_margin": "0.4122879474693264110907073406",
|
"implied_profit": "1240560002.480",
|
"pe": "12"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.856",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3298303579754611288725658725",
|
"implied_profit": "992448001.984",
|
"pe": "15"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.546666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2748586316462176073938048937",
|
"implied_profit": "827040001.6533333333333333333",
|
"pe": "18"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.392",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2473727684815958466544244043",
|
"implied_profit": "744336001.488",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.1136",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1978982147852766773235395235",
|
"implied_profit": "595468801.1904",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.928",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1649151789877305644362829362",
|
"implied_profit": "496224000.992",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.7954285714285714285714285714",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1413558677037690552310996596",
|
"implied_profit": "425334857.9931428571428571429",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.696",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1236863842407979233272122022",
|
"implied_profit": "372168000.744",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.5568",
|
"implied_margin": "0.09894910739263833866176976174",
|
"implied_profit": "297734400.5952",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.464",
|
"implied_margin": "0.08245758949386528221814146812",
|
"implied_profit": "248112000.496",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.3712",
|
"implied_margin": "0.06596607159509222577451317449",
|
"implied_profit": "198489600.3968",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.2784",
|
"implied_margin": "0.04947455369631916933088488087",
|
"implied_profit": "148867200.2976",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、价格、订单或验收低于预期，利润下修且估值回归行业低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.03809783517897736",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.1730210525124648",
|
"equity_value_high": "12258957276.91697010",
|
"equity_value_low": "5757995084.6125160",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "22.92575999999313683499147212",
|
"price_low": "10.76815999999677590766105287",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.1765172413795568665592143635",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.6132126436782767274547035607"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM扣非利润与6家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按业务质量和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.16254587750415617",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.01318812342495801",
|
"equity_value_high": "31611821649.3925290",
|
"equity_value_low": "13930633269.22382880",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "59.11799999998228806349062166",
|
"price_low": "26.05199999999219934224813442",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "1.123491379309708622970209111",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.0642241379313146787985583901"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构、良率或规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.33452307132477554",
|
"cagr_low": "0.18491892933237564",
|
"equity_value_high": "63012897821.1224375",
|
"equity_value_low": "34773003814.3317855",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "117.8418799999646873993096467",
|
"price_low": "65.02979999998052360228308302",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "3.232826149424018943940720068",
|
"upside_to_low": "1.335840517240679727093501545"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
