{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "56.0637550918184536367015422",
|
"price_label": "当前价格处于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "WITHIN_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "0.3639384314946829665243277745"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "57.4307866",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "10",
|
"required_profit": "52634578220.44612300"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "12",
|
"required_profit": "43862148517.03843583333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "15",
|
"required_profit": "35089718813.63074866666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "18",
|
"required_profit": "29241432344.69229055555555556"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "26317289110.22306150"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "21053831288.17844920"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "17544859406.81537433333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "15038450920.12746371428571429"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "13158644555.11153075"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "10526915644.08922460"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "8772429703.407687166666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "7017943762.726149733333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "5263457822.04461230"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "C1汇总快照缺逐家报告日期；仅作市场预期锚，不替代法定利润。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "1.892368421053",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "17343313504.227062"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "2.159210526316",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "19788887123.094036"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "2.423611111111",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "22212084520.485092"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池19家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-13",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260813",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.892368421053",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000007252650998284877602304076941",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "18.84411069391928916939315787",
|
"profit_max": "17343313504.227062",
|
"profit_mean": "17343313504.227062",
|
"profit_median": "17343313504.227062",
|
"profit_min": "17343313504.227062"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "2.159210526316",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000006519820907434002251201204962",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "16.51529555149138073475684237",
|
"profit_max": "19788887123.094036",
|
"profit_mean": "19788887123.094036",
|
"profit_median": "19788887123.094036",
|
"profit_min": "19788887123.094036"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "2.423611111111",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000003565851729357197397018668395",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "14.71358166189179255133095390",
|
"profit_max": "22212084520.485092",
|
"profit_mean": "22212084520.485092",
|
"profit_median": "22212084520.485092",
|
"profit_min": "22212084520.485092"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-13",
|
"code": "002415.SZ",
|
"company": "海康威视",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-08-01",
|
"market": "深圳证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-06-30"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "1.785047357093938782441069995",
|
"annual_fcf": "21717364418.43",
|
"book_value_per_share": "9.203265543190291630437526427",
|
"current_fcf": "1736668894.45",
|
"deduct_pe": "20.52098052370225775841072958",
|
"diluted_shares": "9164871550.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "302757101165.290",
|
"market_cap": "326819319473.000",
|
"normalized_eps": "1.737733728600920879245710760",
|
"normalized_pe": "20.52098052370225637970280223",
|
"normalized_profit": "15926106410.73000107",
|
"pb": "3.874711626286351825539054810",
|
"price": "35.66",
|
"ps": "3.351570418880307716980293294",
|
"reported_pe": "19.88710829975585785125096650",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "16433727545.85",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "15926106410.73",
|
"ttm_eps": "1.793121426328119132231591396",
|
"ttm_revenue": "97512293828.57"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-507621135.11999893",
|
"basis": "2025年报+2026最新累计期-2025同期",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [],
|
"status": "PASS",
|
"warning_count": 0
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.566",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3351570418880307716980293294",
|
"implied_profit": "32681931947.300",
|
"pe": "10"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.971666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2792975349066923097483577746",
|
"implied_profit": "27234943289.41666666666666667",
|
"pe": "12"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.377333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2234380279253538477986862196",
|
"implied_profit": "21787954631.53333333333333333",
|
"pe": "15"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.981111111111111111111111111",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1861983566044615398322385163",
|
"implied_profit": "18156628859.61111111111111111",
|
"pe": "18"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.783",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1675785209440153858490146647",
|
"implied_profit": "16340965973.650",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.4264",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1340628167552123086792117318",
|
"implied_profit": "13072772778.920",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.188666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1117190139626769238993431098",
|
"implied_profit": "10893977315.76666666666666667",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.018857142857142857142857143",
|
"implied_margin": "0.09575915482515164905657980841",
|
"implied_profit": "9337694842.085714285714285714",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.8915",
|
"implied_margin": "0.08378926047200769292450733236",
|
"implied_profit": "8170482986.825",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.7132",
|
"implied_margin": "0.06703140837760615433960586589",
|
"implied_profit": "6536386389.460",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.5943333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.05585950698133846194967155490",
|
"implied_profit": "5446988657.883333333333333333",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.4754666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.04468760558507076955973724393",
|
"implied_profit": "4357590926.306666666666666667",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.3566",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03351570418880307716980293294",
|
"implied_profit": "3268193194.730",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、价格、订单或验收低于预期，利润下修且估值回归行业低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.034646745325496164",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.17369429122738456",
|
"equity_value_high": "273992734690.198874",
|
"equity_value_low": "125895871176.820635",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "29.89597106685023577880914218",
|
"price_low": "13.73678512459027699084336867",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.1616385006491801520244211391",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.6147844889346529166897541035"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM扣非利润与19家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按业务质量和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.1699165400608973",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.00964766309635845",
|
"equity_value_high": "716278847724.577690",
|
"equity_value_low": "311355380329.771477",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "78.15481578948890887619696099",
|
"price_low": "33.97269439414799839720612342",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "1.191666174691220103090212030",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.0473164780104319013683083730"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构、良率或规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.34001941358196675",
|
"cagr_low": "0.19243143937968155",
|
"equity_value_high": "1412092585514.167400",
|
"equity_value_low": "787906732497.03555",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "154.0766368421352724796235688",
|
"price_low": "85.97029736843780969303383199",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "3.320713315819833776770150555",
|
"upside_to_low": "1.410832792160342391840544924"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
