{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "14.30549999999999900595117306",
|
"price_label": "当前价格低于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "BELOW_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "0.4212016357345076666069808792"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "13.3350228",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "10",
|
"required_profit": "6036685620.85908396"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "12",
|
"required_profit": "5030571350.71590330"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "15",
|
"required_profit": "4024457080.57272264"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "18",
|
"required_profit": "3353714233.81060220"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "3018342810.42954198"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "2414674248.343633584"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "2012228540.28636132"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "1724767320.24545256"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "1509171405.21477099"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "1207337124.171816792"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "1006114270.14318066"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "804891416.114544528"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "603668562.085908396"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "C1汇总快照缺逐家报告日期；仅作市场预期锚，不替代法定利润。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "0.374",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "1693075787.018"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "0.483",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "2186512313.1809998"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "0.58",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "2625625552.06"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池11家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-13",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260813",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.374",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "22.13903743315508021390374332",
|
"profit_max": "1693075787.018",
|
"profit_mean": "1693075787.018",
|
"profit_median": "1693075787.018",
|
"profit_min": "1693075787.018"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.483",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000009146987135372421366234043616",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "17.14285714285714442519779464",
|
"profit_max": "2186512313.1809998",
|
"profit_mean": "2186512313.1809998",
|
"profit_median": "2186512313.1809998",
|
"profit_min": "2186512313.1809998"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.58",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "14.27586206896551724137931034",
|
"profit_max": "2625625552.06",
|
"profit_mean": "2625625552.06",
|
"profit_median": "2625625552.06",
|
"profit_min": "2625625552.06"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-13",
|
"code": "002429.SZ",
|
"company": "兆驰股份",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-24",
|
"market": "深圳证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "2.534730718930087237295679376",
|
"annual_fcf": "2619032992.50",
|
"book_value_per_share": "3.736461103261388116550564676",
|
"current_fcf": "124177375.48",
|
"deduct_pe": "37.28745367663218669790623526",
|
"diluted_shares": "4526940607.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "37840543919.590",
|
"market_cap": "37483068225.960",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.2220586064097216948532410909",
|
"normalized_pe": "37.28745367663220079319303132",
|
"normalized_profit": "1005246122.48999962",
|
"pb": "2.216000587500499340848698160",
|
"price": "8.28",
|
"ps": "2.052270404837428792455719395",
|
"reported_pe": "31.80968752455525903084100819",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "1178353864.59",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "1005246122.49",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.2602980615137546910608275184",
|
"ttm_revenue": "18264195662.33"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-173107742.10000038",
|
"basis": "2025年报+2026最新累计期-2025同期",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [],
|
"status": "PASS",
|
"warning_count": 0
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.828",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2052270404837428792455719395",
|
"implied_profit": "3748306822.596",
|
"pe": "10"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.69",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1710225337364523993713099496",
|
"implied_profit": "3123589018.830",
|
"pe": "12"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.552",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1368180269891619194970479597",
|
"implied_profit": "2498871215.064",
|
"pe": "15"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.46",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1140150224909682662475399664",
|
"implied_profit": "2082392679.220",
|
"pe": "18"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.414",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1026135202418714396227859697",
|
"implied_profit": "1874153411.298",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.3312",
|
"implied_margin": "0.08209081619349715169822877579",
|
"implied_profit": "1499322729.0384",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.276",
|
"implied_margin": "0.06840901349458095974852397983",
|
"implied_profit": "1249435607.532",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.2365714285714285714285714286",
|
"implied_margin": "0.05863629728106939407016341128",
|
"implied_profit": "1070944806.456",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.207",
|
"implied_margin": "0.05130676012093571981139298487",
|
"implied_profit": "937076705.649",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1656",
|
"implied_margin": "0.04104540809674857584911438790",
|
"implied_profit": "749661364.5192",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.138",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03420450674729047987426198991",
|
"implied_profit": "624717803.766",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1104",
|
"implied_margin": "0.02736360539783238389940959193",
|
"implied_profit": "499774243.0128",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.0828",
|
"implied_margin": "0.02052270404837428792455719395",
|
"implied_profit": "374830682.2596",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、价格、订单或验收低于预期，利润下修且估值回归行业低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.01438351434132834",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.1526330704453387",
|
"equity_value_high": "34863816606.274650",
|
"equity_value_low": "16375429012.0380940",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "7.701407999999998674601564085",
|
"price_low": "3.617327999999999558200521362",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.0698782608695653774635792168",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.5631246376811594736472800287"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM扣非利润与11家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按业务质量和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.19120678184129258",
|
"cagr_low": "0.011140310695842093",
|
"equity_value_high": "89902324290.6557910",
|
"equity_value_low": "39617973416.22120",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "19.85939999999999801190234613",
|
"price_low": "8.7516",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "1.398478260869564977282892045",
|
"upside_to_low": "0.056956521739130434782608696"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构、良率或规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.3674238271771435",
|
"cagr_low": "0.21413140923361396",
|
"equity_value_high": "179205299752.7071825",
|
"equity_value_low": "98892556719.721380",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "39.58640399999998994906186097",
|
"price_low": "21.84534",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "3.780966666666665452785248909",
|
"upside_to_low": "1.638326086956521739130434783"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
