{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "4.775365384617149081669215066",
|
"price_label": "当前价格处于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "WITHIN_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "0.1812144862055465969601088314"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "6.2970941",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "10",
|
"required_profit": "31799580804.72602847"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "12",
|
"required_profit": "26499650670.605023725"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "15",
|
"required_profit": "21199720536.48401898"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "18",
|
"required_profit": "17666433780.40334915"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "15899790402.363014235"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "12719832321.890411388"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "10599860268.24200949"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "9085594515.636008134285714286"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "7949895201.1815071175"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "6359916160.945205694"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "5299930134.121004745"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "4239944107.296803796"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "3179958080.472602847"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "C1汇总快照缺逐家报告日期；仅作市场预期锚，不替代法定利润。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "0.208076923077",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "10507638640.791191"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "0.231307692308",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "11680765025.097769"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "0.248666666667",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "12557372709.610832"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池13家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-13",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260813",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.208076923077",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0000000000000001157975679974832105930227594",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "18.79112754158270416208828045",
|
"profit_max": "10507638640.791191",
|
"profit_mean": "10507638640.791191",
|
"profit_median": "10507638640.791191",
|
"profit_min": "10507638640.791191"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.231307692308",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000001138315852722900570238560615",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "16.90389092116141797728946006",
|
"profit_max": "11680765025.097769",
|
"profit_mean": "11680765025.097769",
|
"profit_median": "11680765025.097769",
|
"profit_min": "11680765025.097769"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.248666666667",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000007479980261166507094801174157",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "15.72386058979125605470763188",
|
"profit_max": "12557372709.610832",
|
"profit_mean": "12557372709.610832",
|
"profit_median": "12557372709.610832",
|
"profit_min": "12557372709.610832"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-13",
|
"code": "003816.SZ",
|
"company": "中国广核",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-29",
|
"market": "深圳证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "3.069065818792828881146949612",
|
"annual_fcf": "-4086242995.97",
|
"book_value_per_share": "2.493506596807996127265067569",
|
"current_fcf": "-7350987016.42",
|
"deduct_pe": "22.32017853352262946357886208",
|
"diluted_shares": "50498817867.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "522162761229.640",
|
"market_cap": "197450377859.970",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.1751778102548588654866383033",
|
"normalized_pe": "22.32017853352262265116344432",
|
"normalized_profit": "8846272334.4000027",
|
"pb": "1.568072851704220319838086914",
|
"price": "3.91",
|
"ps": "2.697264648982046646380827992",
|
"reported_pe": "20.82061503875157487976455879",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "9483407550.28",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "8846272334.40",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.1877946445252775564343291165",
|
"ttm_revenue": "73203931966.59"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-637135215.8799973",
|
"basis": "2025年报+2026最新累计期-2025同期",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 1
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.391",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2697264648982046646380827992",
|
"implied_profit": "19745037785.997",
|
"pe": "10"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.3258333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2247720540818372205317356660",
|
"implied_profit": "16454198154.9975",
|
"pe": "12"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.2606666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1798176432654697764253885328",
|
"implied_profit": "13163358523.998",
|
"pe": "15"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.2172222222222222222222222222",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1498480360545581470211571107",
|
"implied_profit": "10969465436.665",
|
"pe": "18"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1955",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1348632324491023323190413996",
|
"implied_profit": "9872518892.9985",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1564",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1078905859592818658552331197",
|
"implied_profit": "7898015114.3988",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1303333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.08990882163273488821269426641",
|
"implied_profit": "6581679261.999",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1117142857142857142857142857",
|
"implied_margin": "0.07706470425662990418230937121",
|
"implied_profit": "5641439367.427714285714285714",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.09775",
|
"implied_margin": "0.06743161622455116615952069981",
|
"implied_profit": "4936259446.49925",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.0782",
|
"implied_margin": "0.05394529297964093292761655985",
|
"implied_profit": "3949007557.1994",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.06516666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.04495441081636744410634713321",
|
"implied_profit": "3290839630.9995",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.05213333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03596352865309395528507770656",
|
"implied_profit": "2632671704.7996",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.0391",
|
"implied_margin": "0.02697264648982046646380827992",
|
"implied_profit": "1974503778.5997",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、价格、订单或验收低于预期，利润下修且估值回归行业低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.0804414475726214",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.20942524962395737",
|
"equity_value_high": "129823976934.703332",
|
"equity_value_low": "60977928560.23944",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "2.570832000000950279670434805",
|
"price_low": "1.207512000000446267872237200",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.3424982097184270384474591292",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.6911734015344127192142615857"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM扣非利润与13家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按业务质量和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.11136978722472102",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.05662827891614852",
|
"equity_value_high": "334773367095.607308",
|
"equity_value_low": "147527246516.708322",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "6.629330769233218494500565533",
|
"price_low": "2.921400000001079668837864600",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.695481015149160740281474561",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.2528388746800307752332827110"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构、良率或规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.2691658271430768",
|
"cagr_low": "0.13275796151619712",
|
"equity_value_high": "650204272981.246098",
|
"equity_value_low": "368250703805.168055",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "12.87563353846629357970352982",
|
"price_low": "7.292263846156540664750210756",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "2.293000904978591708364074123",
|
"upside_to_low": "0.865029116664076896355552623"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
