{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "11.81925",
|
"price_label": "当前价格处于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "WITHIN_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "0.05493157349239587960318971170"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "17.9893967",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "10",
|
"required_profit": "5421705922.76999004"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "12",
|
"required_profit": "4518088268.97499170"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "15",
|
"required_profit": "3614470615.17999336"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "18",
|
"required_profit": "3012058845.98332780"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "2710852961.38499502"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "2168682369.107996016"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "1807235307.58999668"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "1549058835.077140011428571429"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "1355426480.69249751"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "1084341184.553998008"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "903617653.79499834"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "722894123.035998672"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "542170592.276999004"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "C1汇总快照缺逐家报告日期；仅作市场预期锚，不替代法定利润。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "0.515",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "1552124619.18"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "0.555",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "1672677987.66"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "0.5975",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "1800765941.67"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池4家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-13",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260813",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.515",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "21.68932038834951456310679612",
|
"profit_max": "1552124619.18",
|
"profit_mean": "1552124619.18",
|
"profit_median": "1552124619.18",
|
"profit_min": "1552124619.18"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.555",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "20.12612612612612612612612613",
|
"profit_max": "1672677987.66",
|
"profit_mean": "1672677987.66",
|
"profit_median": "1672677987.66",
|
"profit_min": "1672677987.66"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.5975",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.000",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "18.69456066945606694560669456",
|
"profit_max": "1800765941.67",
|
"profit_mean": "1800765941.67",
|
"profit_median": "1800765941.67",
|
"profit_min": "1800765941.67"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-13",
|
"code": "601611.SH",
|
"company": "中国核建",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-25",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "0.004565193302964013144898704194",
|
"annual_fcf": "-1795881470.3",
|
"book_value_per_share": "11.15474984191001678097613951",
|
"current_fcf": "-9744316033.9",
|
"deduct_pe": "29.28930296473790363062563933",
|
"diluted_shares": "3013834212.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "115847361128.750",
|
"market_cap": "33664528148.040",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.3813679012248202589585574722",
|
"normalized_pe": "29.28930296473790363062563933",
|
"normalized_profit": "1149379628.07",
|
"pb": "1.001367144786401767441143178",
|
"price": "11.17",
|
"ps": "0.3529767506328368280711589607",
|
"reported_pe": "28.75947644793114952038263689",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "1170554276.57",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "1149379628.07",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.3883937185095568222980939470",
|
"ttm_revenue": "95373216756.30"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-21174648.5",
|
"basis": "2025年报+2026最新累计期-2025同期",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 1
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.117",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03529767506328368280711589607",
|
"implied_profit": "3366452814.804",
|
"pe": "10"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.9308333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.02941472921940306900592991339",
|
"implied_profit": "2805377345.670",
|
"pe": "12"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.7446666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.02353178337552245520474393071",
|
"implied_profit": "2244301876.536",
|
"pe": "15"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.6205555555555555555555555556",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01960981947960204600395327559",
|
"implied_profit": "1870251563.780",
|
"pe": "18"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.5585",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01764883753164184140355794804",
|
"implied_profit": "1683226407.402",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.4468",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01411907002531347312284635843",
|
"implied_profit": "1346581125.9216",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.3723333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01176589168776122760237196536",
|
"implied_profit": "1122150938.268",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.3191428571428571428571428571",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01008505001808105223060454173",
|
"implied_profit": "961843661.3725714285714285714",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.27925",
|
"implied_margin": "0.008824418765820920701778974018",
|
"implied_profit": "841613203.701",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.2234",
|
"implied_margin": "0.007059535012656736561423179214",
|
"implied_profit": "673290562.9608",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1861666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.005882945843880613801185982678",
|
"implied_profit": "561075469.134",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1489333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.004706356675104491040948786143",
|
"implied_profit": "448860375.3072",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1117",
|
"implied_margin": "0.003529767506328368280711589607",
|
"implied_profit": "336645281.4804",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、价格、订单或验收低于预期，利润下修且估值回归行业低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.10644607428937158",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.2317822830297671",
|
"equity_value_high": "19176810094.8927378",
|
"equity_value_low": "9007289590.025376",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "6.362928000000000597245858061",
|
"price_low": "2.988648",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.4303555953446731784023403705",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.7324397493285586392121754700"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM扣非利润与4家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按业务质量和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.07994084081911912",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.08330632937543248",
|
"equity_value_high": "49450690367.0748",
|
"equity_value_low": "21791829653.2872",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "16.4079",
|
"price_low": "7.2306",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.468925693822739480752014324",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.3526768128916741271262309758"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构、良率或规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.23327449266590916",
|
"cagr_low": "0.10072416891876279",
|
"equity_value_high": "96044229735.1630446",
|
"equity_value_low": "54395759403.78228",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "31.86778799999999621744289895",
|
"price_low": "18.04869",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "1.852980125335720341758540640",
|
"upside_to_low": "0.615818263205013428827215756"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
