{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "23.80459999999999739332451200",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-0.3904875528259245534287415172"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "53.307881",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "10",
|
"required_profit": "3476589169.5014986"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "12",
|
"required_profit": "2897157641.251248833333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "15",
|
"required_profit": "2317726113.000999066666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "18",
|
"required_profit": "1931438427.500832555555555556"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "1738294584.7507493"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "1390635667.80059944"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "1158863056.500499533333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "993311191.2861424571428571429"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "869147292.37537465"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "695317833.90029972"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "579431528.2502497666666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "463545222.6001998133333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "347658916.95014986"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "C1汇总快照缺逐家报告日期；仅作市场预期锚，不替代法定利润。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "0.82",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "534780798.91999996"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "1.12",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "730432310.72"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "1.45",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "945648973.6999999"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池2家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-13",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260813",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.82",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000007479700109050430413661951231",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "40.36585365853658838509845865",
|
"profit_max": "534780798.91999996",
|
"profit_mean": "534780798.91999996",
|
"profit_median": "534780798.91999996",
|
"profit_min": "534780798.91999996"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.12",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "29.55357142857142857142857143",
|
"profit_max": "730432310.72",
|
"profit_mean": "730432310.72",
|
"profit_median": "730432310.72",
|
"profit_min": "730432310.72"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.45",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0000000000000001057474843003681573971219444",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "22.82758620689655413809774506",
|
"profit_max": "945648973.6999999",
|
"profit_mean": "945648973.6999999",
|
"profit_median": "945648973.6999999",
|
"profit_min": "945648973.6999999"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-13",
|
"code": "603005.SH",
|
"company": "晶方科技",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-29",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "1.309270085012411558924398694",
|
"annual_fcf": "-68459572.58",
|
"book_value_per_share": "7.145820295261322637017313352",
|
"current_fcf": "46764713.87",
|
"deduct_pe": "64.50922350870050261454667523",
|
"diluted_shares": "652171706.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "19272928201.90",
|
"market_cap": "21586883468.60",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.5131049205007982821014930691",
|
"normalized_pe": "64.50922350870050454230985779",
|
"normalized_profit": "334632511.35999999",
|
"pb": "4.632078422396085885866579601",
|
"price": "33.1",
|
"ps": "14.22897394649501793240230161",
|
"reported_pe": "58.39066322724903550767357037",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "369697521.41",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "334632511.36",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.5668714511972403782877388428",
|
"ttm_revenue": "1517107526.50"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-35065010.05000001",
|
"basis": "2025年报+2026最新累计期-2025同期",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 1
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.31",
|
"implied_margin": "1.422897394649501793240230161",
|
"implied_profit": "2158688346.86",
|
"pe": "10"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.758333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "1.185747828874584827700191801",
|
"implied_profit": "1798906955.716666666666666667",
|
"pe": "12"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.206666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.9485982630996678621601534405",
|
"implied_profit": "1439125564.573333333333333333",
|
"pe": "15"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.838888888888888888888888889",
|
"implied_margin": "0.7904985525830565518001278672",
|
"implied_profit": "1199271303.811111111111111111",
|
"pe": "18"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.655",
|
"implied_margin": "0.7114486973247508966201150806",
|
"implied_profit": "1079344173.43",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.324",
|
"implied_margin": "0.5691589578598007172960920644",
|
"implied_profit": "863475338.744",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.103333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.4742991315498339310800767204",
|
"implied_profit": "719562782.2866666666666666667",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.9457142857142857142857142857",
|
"implied_margin": "0.4065421127570005123543514746",
|
"implied_profit": "616768099.1028571428571428571",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.8275",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3557243486623754483100575403",
|
"implied_profit": "539672086.715",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.662",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2845794789299003586480460322",
|
"implied_profit": "431737669.372",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.5516666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2371495657749169655400383602",
|
"implied_profit": "359781391.1433333333333333333",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.4413333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1897196526199335724320306882",
|
"implied_profit": "287825112.9146666666666666667",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.331",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1422897394649501793240230161",
|
"implied_profit": "215868834.686",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、价格、订单或验收低于预期，利润下修且估值回归行业低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.17118387116324907",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.2905648834099127",
|
"equity_value_high": "8442691428.709824",
|
"equity_value_low": "3879299915.365680",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "12.945504",
|
"price_low": "5.94828",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.6088971601208459214501510574",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8202936555891238670694864048"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM扣非利润与2家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按业务质量和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.0012211054458832749",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.14972059597637266",
|
"equity_value_high": "21455405652.6703966",
|
"equity_value_low": "9593967532.6248",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "32.89839999999999478664902399",
|
"price_low": "14.7108",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.0060906344410877707961019943",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.5555649546827794561933534743"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构、良率或规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.1412942728706803",
|
"cagr_low": "0.018000271022084346",
|
"equity_value_high": "41800178542.1437344",
|
"equity_value_low": "23600946217.9374366",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "64.09382399999998527995018539",
|
"price_low": "36.18823999999999478664902399",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.936369305135951216916924030",
|
"upside_to_low": "0.093300302114803467874592870"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
