{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "72.92089285715923931825286255",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于乐观情景上限",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_OPTIMISTIC_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-2.922058394981940286680973867"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "460.605860",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "10",
|
"required_profit": "107060374533.5813260"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "12",
|
"required_profit": "89216978777.98443833333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "15",
|
"required_profit": "71373583022.38755066666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "18",
|
"required_profit": "59477985851.98962555555555556"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "53530187266.7906630"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "42824149813.4325304"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "35686791511.19377533333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "30588678438.16609314285714286"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "26765093633.3953315"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "21412074906.7162652"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "17843395755.59688766666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "14274716604.47751013333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "10706037453.3581326"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "C1汇总快照缺逐家报告日期；仅作市场预期锚，不替代法定利润。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "1.906428571429",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "4431184546.343139"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "2.881785714286",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "6698244305.814592"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "4.079230769231",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "9481511458.902843"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池27家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-13",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260813",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.906428571429",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0000000000000000004601478405323237309709598737",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "150.0187336080591940592275608",
|
"profit_max": "4431184546.343139",
|
"profit_mean": "4431184546.343139",
|
"profit_median": "4431184546.343139",
|
"profit_min": "4431184546.343139"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "2.881785714286",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000009973150716824436759817548699",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "99.24402032468963745801601049",
|
"profit_max": "6698244305.814592",
|
"profit_mean": "6698244305.814592",
|
"profit_median": "6698244305.814592",
|
"profit_min": "6698244305.814592"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "4.079230769231",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0000000000000001136971678695564898476913289",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "70.11125777861191945979133138",
|
"profit_max": "9481511458.902843",
|
"profit_mean": "9481511458.902843",
|
"profit_median": "9481511458.902843",
|
"profit_min": "9481511458.902843"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-13",
|
"code": "688041.SH",
|
"company": "海光信息",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-08",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "0.8239799430455870308954308754",
|
"annual_fcf": "926948297.91",
|
"book_value_per_share": "10.10927685548134830269836162",
|
"current_fcf": "-314775725.85",
|
"deduct_pe": "270.2948253609130643265320407",
|
"diluted_shares": "2324338091.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "664341153417.62",
|
"market_cap": "664760694026.00",
|
"normalized_eps": "1.058103867205435842078621255",
|
"normalized_pe": "270.2948253609130368507451622",
|
"normalized_profit": "2459391122.78000025",
|
"pb": "28.29084652528118432296669556",
|
"price": "286.0",
|
"ps": "41.52072916436400210678787753",
|
"reported_pe": "243.8512443477629565121745847",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "2726091047.04",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "2459391122.78",
|
"ttm_eps": "1.172846178271403632906345551",
|
"ttm_revenue": "16010332848.31"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-266699924.25999975",
|
"basis": "2025年报+2026最新累计期-2025同期",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [],
|
"status": "PASS",
|
"warning_count": 0
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "28.6",
|
"implied_margin": "4.152072916436400210678787753",
|
"implied_profit": "66476069402.60",
|
"pe": "10"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "23.83333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "3.460060763697000175565656461",
|
"implied_profit": "55396724502.16666666666666667",
|
"pe": "12"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "19.06666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "2.768048610957600140452525168",
|
"implied_profit": "44317379601.73333333333333333",
|
"pe": "15"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "15.88888888888888888888888889",
|
"implied_margin": "2.306707175798000117043770974",
|
"implied_profit": "36931149668.11111111111111111",
|
"pe": "18"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "14.3",
|
"implied_margin": "2.076036458218200105339393876",
|
"implied_profit": "33238034701.30",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "11.44",
|
"implied_margin": "1.660829166574560084271515101",
|
"implied_profit": "26590427761.04",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "9.533333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "1.384024305478800070226262584",
|
"implied_profit": "22158689800.86666666666666667",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "8.171428571428571428571428571",
|
"implied_margin": "1.186306547553257203051082215",
|
"implied_profit": "18993162686.45714285714285714",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "7.15",
|
"implied_margin": "1.038018229109100052669696938",
|
"implied_profit": "16619017350.65",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "5.72",
|
"implied_margin": "0.8304145832872800421357575506",
|
"implied_profit": "13295213880.52",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "4.766666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.6920121527394000351131312919",
|
"implied_profit": "11079344900.43333333333333333",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.813333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.5536097221915200280905050337",
|
"implied_profit": "8863475920.346666666666666667",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.86",
|
"implied_margin": "0.4152072916436400210678787753",
|
"implied_profit": "6647606940.26",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、价格、订单或验收低于预期，利润下修且估值回归行业低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.32778127328355366",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.42207143779033496",
|
"equity_value_high": "91246952178.2979150",
|
"equity_value_low": "42858416932.230840",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "39.25717714286596656733962202",
|
"price_low": "18.43897714286128781598150043",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.8627371428571120050093020209",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.9355280519480374551888758726"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM扣非利润与27家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按业务质量和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.18756279161643696",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.3103732921701353",
|
"equity_value_high": "235295899410.820635",
|
"equity_value_low": "103689718384.4294490",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "101.2313571428798802058611533",
|
"price_low": "44.61042857143859843064457184",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.6460442057941262929864994640",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8440194805194454600327112873"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构、良率或规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.06737770992897163",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.17192753788403148",
|
"equity_value_high": "469023159492.235725",
|
"equity_value_low": "258825489351.902730",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "201.7878385714738626636394955",
|
"price_low": "111.3544928571678817786925818",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.2944481168829585221551066591",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.6106486263735388748996762874"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
