{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "29.23392857143949985588867150",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于乐观情景上限",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_OPTIMISTIC_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-7.752159306086765468900282188"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "412.0650886",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "10",
|
"required_profit": "5362572661.54278306"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "12",
|
"required_profit": "4468810551.28565255"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "15",
|
"required_profit": "3575048441.02852204"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "18",
|
"required_profit": "2979207034.190435033333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "2681286330.77139153"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "2145029064.617113224"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "1787524220.51426102"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "1532163617.583652302857142857"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "1340643165.385695765"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "1072514532.308556612"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "893762110.25713051"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "715009688.205704408"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "536257266.154278306"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "C1汇总快照缺逐家报告日期；仅作市场预期锚，不替代法定利润。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "0.764285714286",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "99463356.40718004"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "2.05",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "266784890.54999998"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "3.764285714286",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "489880269.40718"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池7家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-13",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260813",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.764285714286",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.000000000000000002955862446431345136067870365",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "334.7700934578187765456216082",
|
"profit_max": "99463356.40718004",
|
"profit_mean": "99463356.40718004",
|
"profit_median": "99463356.40718004",
|
"profit_min": "99463356.40718004"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "2.05",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000007496676426752759930367535333",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "124.8097560975609849663396612",
|
"profit_max": "266784890.54999998",
|
"profit_mean": "266784890.54999998",
|
"profit_median": "266784890.54999998",
|
"profit_min": "266784890.54999998"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "3.764285714286",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000008105245807929663752036519588",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "67.97039848196828100074419479",
|
"profit_max": "489880269.40718",
|
"profit_mean": "489880269.40718",
|
"profit_median": "489880269.40718",
|
"profit_min": "489880269.40718"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-13",
|
"code": "688167.SH",
|
"company": "炬光科技",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-08-08",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-06-30"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": null,
|
"annual_fcf": "-41802923.72",
|
"book_value_per_share": "17.47152835102714927721381783",
|
"current_fcf": "-71637141.17",
|
"deduct_pe": null,
|
"diluted_shares": "130138971.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "33192578035.160",
|
"market_cap": "33297357120.060",
|
"normalized_eps": "-0.8950190972387509503206383889",
|
"normalized_pe": null,
|
"normalized_profit": "-116476864.33999999",
|
"pb": "14.64439715057658467821180439",
|
"price": "255.86",
|
"ps": "36.76023131062449635705035243",
|
"reported_pe": null,
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "-80697643.33",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "-116476864.34",
|
"ttm_eps": "-0.6200882234576758717417552041",
|
"ttm_revenue": "905798356.89"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-35779221.00999999",
|
"basis": "2025年报+2026最新累计期-2025同期",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "使用正常化情景、PB 或反向估值。",
|
"field": "metrics.ttm_attributable_profit",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-TTM-PROFIT",
|
"message": "TTM 归母利润不为正，报告 PE 不适用。",
|
"recalc_scope": "PE 模块",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
},
|
{
|
"action": "检查主营盈利恢复条件。",
|
"field": "metrics.ttm_deduct_profit",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-TTM-DEDUCT",
|
"message": "TTM 扣非利润不为正，扣非 PE 不适用。",
|
"recalc_scope": "扣非 PE 模块",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
},
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 3
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "25.586",
|
"implied_margin": "3.676023131062449635705035243",
|
"implied_profit": "3329735712.006",
|
"pe": "10"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "21.32166666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "3.063352609218708029754196036",
|
"implied_profit": "2774779760.005",
|
"pe": "12"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "17.05733333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "2.450682087374966423803356829",
|
"implied_profit": "2219823808.004",
|
"pe": "15"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "14.21444444444444444444444444",
|
"implied_margin": "2.042235072812472019836130691",
|
"implied_profit": "1849853173.336666666666666667",
|
"pe": "18"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "12.793",
|
"implied_margin": "1.838011565531224817852517622",
|
"implied_profit": "1664867856.003",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "10.2344",
|
"implied_margin": "1.470409252424979854282014097",
|
"implied_profit": "1331894284.8024",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "8.528666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "1.225341043687483211901678414",
|
"implied_profit": "1109911904.002",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "7.310285714285714285714285714",
|
"implied_margin": "1.050292323160699895915724355",
|
"implied_profit": "951353060.5731428571428571429",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "6.3965",
|
"implied_margin": "0.9190057827656124089262588108",
|
"implied_profit": "832433928.0015",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "5.1172",
|
"implied_margin": "0.7352046262124899271410070486",
|
"implied_profit": "665947142.4012",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "4.264333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.6126705218437416059508392072",
|
"implied_profit": "554955952.001",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.411466666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.4901364174749932847606713658",
|
"implied_profit": "443964761.6008",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.5586",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3676023131062449635705035243",
|
"implied_profit": "332973571.2006",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、价格、订单或验收低于预期，利润下修且估值回归行业低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.42748037887661106",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.5077860399860127",
|
"equity_value_high": "2048149435.13665170",
|
"equity_value_low": "962009583.17024540",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "15.73817142857731447715227439",
|
"price_low": "7.392171428574192430029280007",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.9384891290995962069993266849",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.9711085303346588273664141327"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM扣非利润与7家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按业务质量和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.3080581896277579",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.412654236200908",
|
"equity_value_high": "5281504225.22125980",
|
"equity_value_low": "2327442539.92801320",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "40.58357142858659763031321340",
|
"price_low": "17.88428571429240208146412960",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.8413836808075252183603798429",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.9301012830677229653659652560"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构、良率或规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.2056981768853342",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.2947418549478691",
|
"equity_value_high": "10527798422.27437805",
|
"equity_value_low": "5809654647.7433865",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "80.89658571431595267492932613",
|
"price_low": "44.64192857144526292589173769",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.6838248037430002631324578827",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8255220488882777185730800528"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
