{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "41.31000000000000489496326636",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-0.7494553376906316009799173534"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "116.3915577",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "10",
|
"required_profit": "1426669227.52885575"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "12",
|
"required_profit": "1188891022.940713125"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "15",
|
"required_profit": "951112818.35257050"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "18",
|
"required_profit": "792594015.29380875"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "713334613.764427875"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "570667691.01154230"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "475556409.17628525"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "407619779.2939587857142857143"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "356667306.8822139375"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "285333845.50577115"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "237778204.588142625"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "190222563.67051410"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "142666922.752885575"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "C1汇总快照缺逐家报告日期；仅作市场预期锚，不替代法定利润。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "1.08",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "132380973.00000001"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "1.76",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "215731956.0"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "2.69",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "329726682.75"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池3家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-13",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260813",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.08",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000007553955657963021048806186221",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "66.91666666666666161181133888",
|
"profit_max": "132380973.00000001",
|
"profit_mean": "132380973.00000001",
|
"profit_median": "132380973.00000001",
|
"profit_min": "132380973.00000001"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.76",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "41.0625",
|
"profit_max": "215731956.0",
|
"profit_mean": "215731956.0",
|
"profit_median": "215731956.0",
|
"profit_min": "215731956.0"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "2.69",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "26.86617100371747211895910781",
|
"profit_max": "329726682.75",
|
"profit_mean": "329726682.75",
|
"profit_median": "329726682.75",
|
"profit_min": "329726682.75"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-13",
|
"code": "688261.SH",
|
"company": "东微半导",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-30",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "-4.149052899033565869714148933",
|
"annual_fcf": "-314662892.38",
|
"book_value_per_share": "24.05018864078903544544879573",
|
"current_fcf": "-83813070.18",
|
"deduct_pe": "2175.127899567214909960442132",
|
"diluted_shares": "122574975.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "7120916483.460",
|
"market_cap": "8858493443.250",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.03322563239356157323303553601",
|
"normalized_pe": "2175.127899567214909960442132",
|
"normalized_profit": "4072631.06",
|
"pb": "3.004966034962001665449109573",
|
"price": "72.27",
|
"ps": "7.089190321883731209685708562",
|
"reported_pe": "201.5007147723671672327312370",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "43962590.67",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "4072631.06",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.3586587773727875530874062997",
|
"ttm_revenue": "1249577602.10"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-39889959.61",
|
"basis": "2025年报+2026最新累计期-2025同期",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 1
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "7.227",
|
"implied_margin": "0.7089190321883731209685708562",
|
"implied_profit": "885849344.325",
|
"pe": "10"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "6.0225",
|
"implied_margin": "0.5907658601569776008071423802",
|
"implied_profit": "738207786.9375",
|
"pe": "12"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "4.818",
|
"implied_margin": "0.4726126881255820806457139042",
|
"implied_profit": "590566229.550",
|
"pe": "15"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "4.015",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3938439067713184005380949201",
|
"implied_profit": "492138524.625",
|
"pe": "18"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.6135",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3544595160941865604842854281",
|
"implied_profit": "442924672.1625",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.8908",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2835676128753492483874283425",
|
"implied_profit": "354339737.730",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.409",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2363063440627910403228569521",
|
"implied_profit": "295283114.775",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.064857142857142857142857143",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2025482949109637488481631018",
|
"implied_profit": "253099812.6642857142857142857",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.80675",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1772297580470932802421427141",
|
"implied_profit": "221462336.08125",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.4454",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1417838064376746241937141712",
|
"implied_profit": "177169868.865",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.2045",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1181531720313955201614284760",
|
"implied_profit": "147641557.3875",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.9636",
|
"implied_margin": "0.09452253762511641612914278083",
|
"implied_profit": "118113245.910",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.7227",
|
"implied_margin": "0.07089190321883731209685708562",
|
"implied_profit": "88584934.4325",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、价格、订单或验收低于预期，利润下修且估值回归行业低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.20998953175118673",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.3208020010453979",
|
"equity_value_high": "2725988996.01600060",
|
"equity_value_low": "1280388770.85600020",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "22.23936000000000489496326636",
|
"price_low": "10.44576000000000163165442212",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.6922739726027396582957898663",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8554620174346201517689992788"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM扣非利润与3家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按业务质量和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.04520080457592768",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.18953117978313871",
|
"equity_value_high": "7029429666.30000090",
|
"equity_value_low": "3097714768.20000030",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "57.34800000000000734244489954",
|
"price_low": "25.27200000000000244748163318",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.2064757160647570590501605156",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.6503113325031132911653295533"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构、良率或规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.09604410409274577",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.026825811985849213",
|
"equity_value_high": "14011996468.1580",
|
"equity_value_low": "7732372632.93000135",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "114.31368",
|
"price_low": "63.08280000000001101366734931",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.581758405977584059775840598",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.1271232876712327243162121308"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
