{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "31.36499999998470077777777778",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-1.713215367449115577390191370"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "137.054401",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "10",
|
"required_profit": "4933958436.0000000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "12",
|
"required_profit": "4111632030.0000000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "15",
|
"required_profit": "3289305624.0000000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "18",
|
"required_profit": "2741088020.0000000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "2466979218.0000000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "1973583374.4000000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "1644652812.0000000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "1409702410.285714285714285714"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "1233489609.0000000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "986791687.2000000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "822326406.0000000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "657861124.8000000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "493395843.6000000"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "C1汇总快照缺逐家报告日期；仅作市场预期锚，不替代法定利润。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "0.878571428571",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "316285714.28556"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "1.324285714286",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "476742857.14296"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "1.848571428571",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "665485714.28556"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池7家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-13",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260813",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.878571428571",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "96.86178861793342851477297566",
|
"profit_max": "316285714.28556",
|
"profit_mean": "316285714.28556",
|
"profit_median": "316285714.28556",
|
"profit_min": "316285714.28556"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.324285714286",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "64.26105717366466859607903675",
|
"profit_max": "476742857.14296",
|
"profit_mean": "476742857.14296",
|
"profit_median": "476742857.14296",
|
"profit_min": "476742857.14296"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.848571428571",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "46.03554868625487686600145013",
|
"profit_max": "665485714.28556",
|
"profit_mean": "665485714.28556",
|
"profit_median": "665485714.28556",
|
"profit_min": "665485714.28556"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-13",
|
"code": "688545.SH",
|
"company": "兴福电子",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-28",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "0.9062695222135870608380278935",
|
"annual_fcf": "-312048366.51",
|
"book_value_per_share": "8.38351229275",
|
"current_fcf": "-203637844.11",
|
"deduct_pe": "146.2766264638065805104218678",
|
"diluted_shares": "360000000.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "30505813377.62",
|
"market_cap": "30636000000.00",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.5817744232777776916666666667",
|
"normalized_pe": "146.2766264638066021614988667",
|
"normalized_profit": "209438792.379999969",
|
"pb": "10.15087674811353905019297915",
|
"price": "85.1",
|
"ps": "19.20788860380048645821560532",
|
"reported_pe": "140.7993587970360447759344429",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "217586218.16",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "209438792.38",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.6044061615555555555555555556",
|
"ttm_revenue": "1594969683.13"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-8147425.780000031",
|
"basis": "2025年报+2026最新累计期-2025同期",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 1
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "8.51",
|
"implied_margin": "1.920788860380048645821560532",
|
"implied_profit": "3063600000.00",
|
"pe": "10"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "7.091666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "1.600657383650040538184633777",
|
"implied_profit": "2553000000.00",
|
"pe": "12"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "5.673333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "1.280525906920032430547707021",
|
"implied_profit": "2042400000.00",
|
"pe": "15"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "4.727777777777777777777777778",
|
"implied_margin": "1.067104922433360358789755851",
|
"implied_profit": "1702000000.00",
|
"pe": "18"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "4.255",
|
"implied_margin": "0.9603944301900243229107802659",
|
"implied_profit": "1531800000.00",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.404",
|
"implied_margin": "0.7683155441520194583286242127",
|
"implied_profit": "1225440000.00",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.836666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.6402629534600162152738535106",
|
"implied_profit": "1021200000.00",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.431428571428571428571428571",
|
"implied_margin": "0.5487968172514424702347315805",
|
"implied_profit": "875314285.7142857142857142857",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.1275",
|
"implied_margin": "0.4801972150950121614553901330",
|
"implied_profit": "765900000.00",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.702",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3841577720760097291643121064",
|
"implied_profit": "612720000.00",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.418333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3201314767300081076369267553",
|
"implied_profit": "510600000.00",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.134666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2561051813840064861095414042",
|
"implied_profit": "408480000.00",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.851",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1920788860380048645821560532",
|
"implied_profit": "306360000.00",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、价格、订单或验收低于预期，利润下修且估值回归行业低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.27636999836414855",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.382380125782126",
|
"equity_value_high": "6078758399.9970352",
|
"equity_value_low": "2753203885.71294312",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "16.88543999999176444444444444",
|
"price_low": "7.647788571424842",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.8015811985899910171040605824",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.9101317441665705992949471210"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM扣非利润与7家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按业务质量和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.12542760999335778",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.2576306551995934",
|
"equity_value_high": "15675119999.9923536",
|
"equity_value_low": "6907679999.99663096",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "43.54199999997876",
|
"price_low": "19.18799999999064155555555556",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.4883431257346796709753231492",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.7745240893068079723201462331"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构、良率或规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.001732979286434455",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.10859657236484199",
|
"equity_value_high": "30902379428.55635040",
|
"equity_value_low": "17242631999.99158812",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "85.83994285710097333333333333",
|
"price_low": "47.89619999997663366666666667",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.008694980694488523305914610",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.4371774383081476654915785350"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
