{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "4.714668893989710885993158675",
|
"price_label": "当前价格处于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "WITHIN_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-0.2089926415121951219512195122"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "9.179907",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "10",
|
"required_profit": "399154421.5117701"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "12",
|
"required_profit": "332628684.59314175"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "15",
|
"required_profit": "266102947.6745134"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "18",
|
"required_profit": "221752456.3954278333333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "199577210.75588505"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "159661768.60470804"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "133051473.8372567"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "114044120.4319343142857142857"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "99788605.377942525"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "79830884.30235402"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "66525736.91862835"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "53220589.53490268"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "39915442.15117701"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "no_usable_forecasts",
|
"detail": [],
|
"summary": {}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-17",
|
"code": "603086.SH",
|
"company": "先达股份",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-22",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "-1.082355457225461901545765624",
|
"annual_fcf": "-307800341.71",
|
"book_value_per_share": "4.883011210725983046009260120",
|
"current_fcf": "-33078807.72",
|
"deduct_pe": "20.42948406882440036020382323",
|
"diluted_shares": "434813143.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "2583286446.12",
|
"market_cap": "2478434915.10",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.2790085143999430992360780594",
|
"normalized_pe": "20.42948406882439732903737945",
|
"normalized_profit": "121316569.070000018",
|
"pb": "1.167312495101265786191327120",
|
"price": "5.7",
|
"ps": "1.010738071855720491083494981",
|
"reported_pe": "18.09003774829318323669191500",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "137005513.73",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "121316569.07",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.3150905531160542679364225198",
|
"ttm_revenue": "2452104045.66"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-15688944.659999982",
|
"basis": "2025年报+2026最新累计期-2025同期",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 1,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "补充法定披露、行情接口或机构预测汇总页来源。",
|
"field": "institutions",
|
"issue_id": "QA-CORE-SOURCE-MISSING",
|
"message": "核心字段没有由注册表中允许承载核心数字的来源支持。",
|
"recalc_scope": "institutions",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
},
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
},
|
{
|
"action": "不得以公司业绩预告或自有情景冒充机构预期。",
|
"field": "institutions",
|
"issue_id": "QA-INSTITUTION-NONE",
|
"message": "估值日没有可用机构盈利预测，已明确记录为空。",
|
"recalc_scope": "机构预期模块",
|
"severity": "INFO"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 2
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.57",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1010738071855720491083494981",
|
"implied_profit": "247843491.51",
|
"pe": "10"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.475",
|
"implied_margin": "0.08422817265464337425695791509",
|
"implied_profit": "206536242.925",
|
"pe": "12"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.38",
|
"implied_margin": "0.06738253812371469940556633207",
|
"implied_profit": "165228994.34",
|
"pe": "15"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.3166666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.05615211510309558283797194341",
|
"implied_profit": "137690828.6166666666666666667",
|
"pe": "18"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.285",
|
"implied_margin": "0.05053690359278602455417474905",
|
"implied_profit": "123921745.755",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.228",
|
"implied_margin": "0.04042952287422881964333979924",
|
"implied_profit": "99137396.604",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.19",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03369126906185734970278316604",
|
"implied_profit": "82614497.17",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1628571428571428571428571429",
|
"implied_margin": "0.02887823062444915688809985660",
|
"implied_profit": "70812426.14571428571428571429",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1425",
|
"implied_margin": "0.02526845179639301227708737453",
|
"implied_profit": "61960872.8775",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.114",
|
"implied_margin": "0.02021476143711440982166989962",
|
"implied_profit": "49568698.302",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.095",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01684563453092867485139158302",
|
"implied_profit": "41307248.585",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.076",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01347650762474293988111326641",
|
"implied_profit": "33045798.868",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.057",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01010738071855720491083494981",
|
"implied_profit": "24784349.151",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "产品价格、销量或价差低于周期中枢，利润和估值倍数同时承压。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.1530666250341649",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.3056531101297043",
|
"equity_value_high": "1080000000.0",
|
"equity_value_low": "400000000.0",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "2.483825563662872076523225058",
|
"price_low": "0.9199353939492118801937870585",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.5642411291819522672766271828",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8386078256229452841765285862"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以已披露法定财务、周期化利润和业务质量为锚，并用现金流或资产价值交叉核验。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.017272370625821987",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.10794813934431424",
|
"equity_value_high": "2700000000.0",
|
"equity_value_low": "1400000000.0",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "6.209563909157180191308062645",
|
"price_low": "3.219773878822241580678254705",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.089397177045119331808432043",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.4351273896803084946178500518"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "景气、份额或成本优势兑现，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.15252566053692318",
|
"cagr_low": "0.017272370625821987",
|
"equity_value_high": "5040000000.0",
|
"equity_value_low": "2700000000.0",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "11.59118596376006969044171694",
|
"price_low": "6.209563909157180191308062645",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "1.033541397150889419375739814",
|
"upside_to_low": "0.089397177045119331808432043"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
