{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "14.98455",
|
"price_label": "当前价格处于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "WITHIN_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "0.2071833989008678939307486711"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "19.1328588",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "10",
|
"required_profit": "3643506674.76186468"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "12",
|
"required_profit": "3036255562.30155390"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "15",
|
"required_profit": "2429004449.84124312"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "18",
|
"required_profit": "2024170374.86770260"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "1821753337.38093234"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "1457402669.904745872"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "1214502224.92062156"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "1041001907.07481848"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "910876668.69046617"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "728701334.952372936"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "607251112.46031078"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "485800889.968248624"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "364350667.476186468"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "C1汇总快照缺逐家报告日期；仅作市场预期锚，不替代法定利润。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "1.005",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "1913840606.0549998"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "1.215",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "2313747598.3650002"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "1.3425",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "2556548272.2675"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池10家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-19",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260819",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.005",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0000000000000001045019106435723810820772437",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "11.82089552238806093679870492",
|
"profit_max": "1913840606.0549998",
|
"profit_mean": "1913840606.0549998",
|
"profit_median": "1913840606.0549998",
|
"profit_min": "1913840606.0549998"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.215",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000008643985201381911352587630900",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "9.777777777777776932588113643",
|
"profit_max": "2313747598.3650002",
|
"profit_mean": "2313747598.3650002",
|
"profit_median": "2313747598.3650002",
|
"profit_min": "2313747598.3650002"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.3425",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "8.849162011173184357541899441",
|
"profit_max": "2556548272.2675",
|
"profit_mean": "2556548272.2675",
|
"profit_median": "2556548272.2675",
|
"profit_min": "2556548272.2675"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-19",
|
"code": "000830.SZ",
|
"company": "鲁西化工",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-29",
|
"market": "深圳证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "4.700104151710823507907963334",
|
"annual_fcf": "2218818152.66",
|
"book_value_per_share": "10.18132949604839081239419502",
|
"current_fcf": "285713512.25",
|
"deduct_pe": "31.56520825519231067360072039",
|
"diluted_shares": "1904319011.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "33650578240.910001",
|
"market_cap": "22623309850.680",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.3763637452968744321378830157",
|
"normalized_pe": "31.56520825519231860105378445",
|
"normalized_profit": "716716635.21999982",
|
"pb": "1.166841717931916696445341758",
|
"price": "11.88",
|
"ps": "0.7810018692052576417453474887",
|
"reported_pe": "24.28025837123608118576907957",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "931757376.91",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "716716635.22",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.4892863913702744629061522298",
|
"ttm_revenue": "28967036754.60"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-215040741.69000018",
|
"basis": "2025年报+2026最新累计期-2025同期",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [],
|
"status": "PASS",
|
"warning_count": 0
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.188",
|
"implied_margin": "0.07810018692052576417453474887",
|
"implied_profit": "2262330985.068",
|
"pe": "10"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.99",
|
"implied_margin": "0.06508348910043813681211229073",
|
"implied_profit": "1885275820.890",
|
"pe": "12"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.792",
|
"implied_margin": "0.05206679128035050944968983258",
|
"implied_profit": "1508220656.712",
|
"pe": "15"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.66",
|
"implied_margin": "0.04338899273362542454140819382",
|
"implied_profit": "1256850547.260",
|
"pe": "18"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.594",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03905009346026288208726737444",
|
"implied_profit": "1131165492.534",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.4752",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03124007476821030566981389955",
|
"implied_profit": "904932394.0272",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.396",
|
"implied_margin": "0.02603339564017525472484491629",
|
"implied_profit": "754110328.356",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.3394285714285714285714285714",
|
"implied_margin": "0.02231433912015021833558135682",
|
"implied_profit": "646380281.448",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.297",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01952504673013144104363368722",
|
"implied_profit": "565582746.267",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.2376",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01562003738410515283490694977",
|
"implied_profit": "452466197.0136",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.198",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01301669782008762736242245815",
|
"implied_profit": "377055164.178",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1584",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01041335825607010188993796652",
|
"implied_profit": "301644131.3424",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1188",
|
"implied_margin": "0.007810018692052576417453474887",
|
"implied_profit": "226233098.5068",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、价格、订单或验收低于预期，利润下修且估值回归行业低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.08575221626186735",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.2212702066193729",
|
"equity_value_high": "14450262111.957672",
|
"equity_value_low": "6478733219.617386",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "7.588152",
|
"price_low": "3.402126",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.3612666666666666666666666667",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.7136257575757575757575757576"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM扣非利润与10家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按业务质量和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.12434819417094167",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.062076576890679025",
|
"equity_value_high": "40649974472.6082",
|
"equity_value_low": "16420752399.9519",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "21.3462",
|
"price_low": "8.6229",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.796818181818181818181818182",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.2741666666666666666666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构、良率或规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.29067474613973343",
|
"cagr_low": "0.14598613630115365",
|
"equity_value_high": "81028949115.3989990",
|
"equity_value_low": "44714971919.86902",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "42.55009199999999317341268721",
|
"price_low": "23.48082",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "2.581657575757575182947195893",
|
"upside_to_low": "0.9765"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
