{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "2.472953089532975289213667379",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-0.6821993177337741775965438718"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "6.6997216",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "10",
|
"required_profit": "1382957396.26611424"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "12",
|
"required_profit": "1152464496.888428533333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "15",
|
"required_profit": "921971597.5107428266666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "18",
|
"required_profit": "768309664.5922856888888888889"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "691478698.13305712"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "553182958.506445696"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "460985798.7553714133333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "395130684.6474612114285714286"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "345739349.06652856"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "276591479.253222848"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "230492899.3776857066666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "184394319.5021485653333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "138295739.626611424"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "C1汇总快照缺逐家报告日期；仅作市场预期锚，不替代法定利润。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "-0.03",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "-61926038.669999994"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "0.33",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "681186425.37"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "0.515",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "1063063663.835"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池2家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-19",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260819",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "-0.03",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000009688977575287233500896973356",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": null,
|
"profit_max": "-61926038.669999994",
|
"profit_mean": "-61926038.669999994",
|
"profit_median": "-61926038.669999994",
|
"profit_min": "-61926038.669999994"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.33",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "12.60606060606060606060606061",
|
"profit_max": "681186425.37",
|
"profit_mean": "681186425.37",
|
"profit_median": "681186425.37",
|
"profit_min": "681186425.37"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.515",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "8.077669902912621359223300971",
|
"profit_max": "1063063663.835",
|
"profit_mean": "1063063663.835",
|
"profit_median": "1063063663.835",
|
"profit_min": "1063063663.835"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-19",
|
"code": "600481.SH",
|
"company": "双良节能",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-30",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": null,
|
"annual_fcf": "1437396373.34",
|
"book_value_per_share": "2.150393990898239381924928156",
|
"current_fcf": "595052260.29",
|
"deduct_pe": null,
|
"diluted_shares": "2064201289.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "15696294007.210",
|
"market_cap": "8587077362.240",
|
"normalized_eps": "-0.7032973942348894396025154308",
|
"normalized_pe": null,
|
"normalized_profit": "-1451747387.72999995",
|
"pb": "1.934529215393840304236025453",
|
"price": "4.16",
|
"ps": "1.261600163081682533648495218",
|
"reported_pe": null,
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "-1348856478.18",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "-1451747387.73",
|
"ttm_eps": "-0.6534520084683466157839416018",
|
"ttm_revenue": "6806496712.29"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-102890909.54999995",
|
"basis": "2025年报+2026最新累计期-2025同期",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "使用正常化情景、PB 或反向估值。",
|
"field": "metrics.ttm_attributable_profit",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-TTM-PROFIT",
|
"message": "TTM 归母利润不为正，报告 PE 不适用。",
|
"recalc_scope": "PE 模块",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
},
|
{
|
"action": "检查主营盈利恢复条件。",
|
"field": "metrics.ttm_deduct_profit",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-TTM-DEDUCT",
|
"message": "TTM 扣非利润不为正，扣非 PE 不适用。",
|
"recalc_scope": "扣非 PE 模块",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 2
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.416",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1261600163081682533648495218",
|
"implied_profit": "858707736.224",
|
"pe": "10"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.3466666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1051333469234735444707079348",
|
"implied_profit": "715589780.1866666666666666667",
|
"pe": "12"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.2773333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.08410667753877883557656634786",
|
"implied_profit": "572471824.1493333333333333333",
|
"pe": "15"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.2311111111111111111111111111",
|
"implied_margin": "0.07008889794898236298047195656",
|
"implied_profit": "477059853.4577777777777777778",
|
"pe": "18"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.208",
|
"implied_margin": "0.06308000815408412668242476090",
|
"implied_profit": "429353868.112",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1664",
|
"implied_margin": "0.05046400652326730134593980872",
|
"implied_profit": "343483094.4896",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1386666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.04205333876938941778828317394",
|
"implied_profit": "286235912.0746666666666666667",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1188571428571428571428571429",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03604571894519092953281414908",
|
"implied_profit": "245345067.4925714285714285714",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.104",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03154000407704206334121238045",
|
"implied_profit": "214676934.056",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.0832",
|
"implied_margin": "0.02523200326163365067296990436",
|
"implied_profit": "171741547.2448",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.06933333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.02102666938469470889414158696",
|
"implied_profit": "143117956.0373333333333333333",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.05546666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01682133550775576711531326958",
|
"implied_profit": "114494364.8298666666666666667",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.0416",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01261600163081682533648495218",
|
"implied_profit": "85870773.6224",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "行业供需继续承压或盈利修复延后，账面资产按折价情景定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.1419088095790585",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.23708010154951775",
|
"equity_value_high": "3994961443.083",
|
"equity_value_low": "2219423023.935",
|
"method": "pb",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "1.935354591808415443732435340",
|
"price_low": "1.075196995449119690962464078",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.5347705308152847491027799663",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.7415391837862693050570999812"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "供需逐步改善、产能利用率企稳，按中性归母净资产倍数定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.06263108240368331",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.1419088095790585",
|
"equity_value_high": "6214384467.018",
|
"equity_value_low": "3994961443.083",
|
"method": "pb",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "3.010551587257535134694899418",
|
"price_low": "1.935354591808415443732435340",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.2763097146015540541598799476",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.5347705308152847491027799663"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "景气、良率或产品结构显著改善，盈利修复与资产回报同步上升。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.02605225125868138",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.06263108240368331",
|
"equity_value_high": "9765461305.314",
|
"equity_value_low": "6214384467.018",
|
"method": "pb",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "4.730866779976126640234841942",
|
"price_low": "3.010551587257535134694899418",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.137227591340415057748760082",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.2763097146015540541598799476"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
