{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "3.721162499999999645108858106",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-0.5801513639890761450975930053"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "9.4697988",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "10",
|
"required_profit": "2801785552.30299264"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "12",
|
"required_profit": "2334821293.58582720"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "15",
|
"required_profit": "1867857034.86866176"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "18",
|
"required_profit": "1556547529.057218133333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "1400892776.15149632"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "1120714220.921197056"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "933928517.43433088"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "800510157.80085504"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "700446388.07574816"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "560357110.460598528"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "466964258.71716544"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "373571406.973732352"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "280178555.230299264"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "C1汇总快照缺逐家报告日期；仅作市场预期锚，不替代法定利润。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "0.213125",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "630563075.78"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "0.351875",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "1041076280.54"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "0.47",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "1390567252.1599998"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池16家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-19",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260819",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.213125",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "27.58944281524926686217008798",
|
"profit_max": "630563075.78",
|
"profit_mean": "630563075.78",
|
"profit_median": "630563075.78",
|
"profit_min": "630563075.78"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.351875",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "16.71047957371225577264653641",
|
"profit_max": "1041076280.54",
|
"profit_mean": "1041076280.54",
|
"profit_median": "1041076280.54",
|
"profit_min": "1041076280.54"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.47",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0000000000000001438261973229525163545035519",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "12.51063829787234222488944736",
|
"profit_max": "1390567252.1599998",
|
"profit_mean": "1390567252.1599998",
|
"profit_median": "1390567252.1599998",
|
"profit_min": "1390567252.1599998"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-19",
|
"code": "601636.SH",
|
"company": "旗滨集团",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-23",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "2.848593036627904488931464626",
|
"annual_fcf": "-228002155.13",
|
"book_value_per_share": "5.049946562563741828999868686",
|
"current_fcf": "-591995800.41",
|
"deduct_pe": "333.4993290140237150522555269",
|
"diluted_shares": "2958653728.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "29050462054.150",
|
"market_cap": "17396883920.640",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.01763121988096337646174185883",
|
"normalized_pe": "333.4993290140236511202301365",
|
"normalized_profit": "52164674.43000001",
|
"pb": "1.164368756610141061432938018",
|
"price": "5.88",
|
"ps": "1.099585817569405190894678700",
|
"reported_pe": "107.3382905498011135491334048",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "162075283.96",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "52164674.43",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.05478007866421061626850845859",
|
"ttm_revenue": "15821306207.00"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-109910609.52999999",
|
"basis": "2025年报+2026最新累计期-2025同期",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 1
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.588",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1099585817569405190894678700",
|
"implied_profit": "1739688392.064",
|
"pe": "10"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.49",
|
"implied_margin": "0.09163215146411709924122322500",
|
"implied_profit": "1449740326.720",
|
"pe": "12"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.392",
|
"implied_margin": "0.07330572117129367939297858000",
|
"implied_profit": "1159792261.376",
|
"pe": "15"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.3266666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.06108810097607806616081548334",
|
"implied_profit": "966493551.1466666666666666667",
|
"pe": "18"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.294",
|
"implied_margin": "0.05497929087847025954473393500",
|
"implied_profit": "869844196.032",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.2352",
|
"implied_margin": "0.04398343270277620763578714800",
|
"implied_profit": "695875356.8256",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.196",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03665286058564683969648929000",
|
"implied_profit": "579896130.688",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.168",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03141673764484014831127653429",
|
"implied_profit": "497053826.304",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.147",
|
"implied_margin": "0.02748964543923512977236696750",
|
"implied_profit": "434922098.016",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1176",
|
"implied_margin": "0.02199171635138810381789357400",
|
"implied_profit": "347937678.4128",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.098",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01832643029282341984824464500",
|
"implied_profit": "289948065.344",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.0784",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01466114423425873587859571600",
|
"implied_profit": "231958452.2752",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.0588",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01099585817569405190894678700",
|
"implied_profit": "173968839.2064",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、价格、订单或验收低于预期，利润下修且估值回归行业低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.20208700255989454",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.3249022354880078",
|
"equity_value_high": "5626640437.800096",
|
"equity_value_low": "2439522427.577664",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "1.901757",
|
"price_low": "0.824538",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.6765719387755102040816326531",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8597724489795918367346938776"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM扣非利润与16家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按业务质量和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.02125022673098842",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.18142400428634675",
|
"equity_value_high": "15625353017.8283979",
|
"equity_value_low": "6393909588.4092",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "5.281237499999999290217716211",
|
"price_low": "2.1610875",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.1018303571428572635684156104",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.6324681122448979591836734694"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构、良率或规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.12105748770006652",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.0024143082283850648",
|
"equity_value_high": "30804267378.0045540",
|
"equity_value_low": "17187888319.61124",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "10.41158249999999797205061775",
|
"price_low": "5.80936125",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.770677295918367002049424787",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.0120133928571428571428571429"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
