{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "20.69676296295654024975096660",
|
"price_label": "当前价格处于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "WITHIN_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "0.3071380280256383777834998373"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "23.0947134",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "10",
|
"required_profit": "30620503129.00695600"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "12",
|
"required_profit": "25517085940.83913000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "15",
|
"required_profit": "20413668752.67130400"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "18",
|
"required_profit": "17011390627.22608666666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "15310251564.50347800"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "12248201251.60278240"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "10206834376.33565200"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "8748715179.716273142857142857"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "7655125782.25173900"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "6124100625.80139120"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "5103417188.16782600"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "4082733750.53426080"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "3062050312.90069560"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "C1汇总快照缺逐家报告日期；仅作市场预期锚，不替代法定利润。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "1.551481481481",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "20570570734.289913"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "1.64",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "21744207976.0"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "1.731538461538",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "22957885625.686188"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池27家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-19",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260819",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.551481481481",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000002453018958578829965227037520",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "9.242778706137983925175005728",
|
"profit_max": "20570570734.289913",
|
"profit_mean": "20570570734.289913",
|
"profit_median": "20570570734.289913",
|
"profit_min": "20570570734.289913"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.64",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "8.743902439024390243902439024",
|
"profit_max": "21744207976.0",
|
"profit_mean": "21744207976.0",
|
"profit_median": "21744207976.0",
|
"profit_min": "21744207976.0"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.731538461538",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000001346813922855573615042068128",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "8.281652598847165367673194046",
|
"profit_max": "22957885625.686188",
|
"profit_mean": "22957885625.686188",
|
"profit_median": "22957885625.686188",
|
"profit_min": "22957885625.686188"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-19",
|
"code": "601898.SH",
|
"company": "中煤能源",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-28",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "1.665882278472589683819965100",
|
"annual_fcf": "8004801000.0",
|
"book_value_per_share": "12.37026237501436230744043174",
|
"current_fcf": "1356886000.0",
|
"deduct_pe": "10.78813405756108089901895844",
|
"diluted_shares": "13258663400.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "214826071156.000",
|
"market_cap": "190129233156.000",
|
"normalized_eps": "1.329238209637330411450071204",
|
"normalized_pe": "10.78813405756108089901895844",
|
"normalized_profit": "17623922000.0",
|
"pb": "1.159231677168314771355673961",
|
"price": "14.34",
|
"ps": "1.321683479074787524603446087",
|
"reported_pe": "10.70725817712206796604975085",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "17757042000.0",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "17623922000.0",
|
"ttm_eps": "1.339278437372503174037889822",
|
"ttm_revenue": "143853832000.0"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-133120000.0",
|
"basis": "2025年报+2026最新累计期-2025同期",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [],
|
"status": "PASS",
|
"warning_count": 0
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.434",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1321683479074787524603446087",
|
"implied_profit": "19012923315.600",
|
"pe": "10"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.195",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1101402899228989603836205072",
|
"implied_profit": "15844102763.000",
|
"pe": "12"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.956",
|
"implied_margin": "0.08811223193831916830689640579",
|
"implied_profit": "12675282210.400",
|
"pe": "15"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.7966666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.07342685994859930692241367147",
|
"implied_profit": "10562735175.33333333333333333",
|
"pe": "18"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.717",
|
"implied_margin": "0.06608417395373937623017230434",
|
"implied_profit": "9506461657.800",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.5736",
|
"implied_margin": "0.05286733916299150098413784347",
|
"implied_profit": "7605169326.240",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.478",
|
"implied_margin": "0.04405611596915958415344820290",
|
"implied_profit": "6337641105.200",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.4097142857142857142857142857",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03776238511642250070295560248",
|
"implied_profit": "5432263804.457142857142857143",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.3585",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03304208697686968811508615217",
|
"implied_profit": "4753230828.900",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.2868",
|
"implied_margin": "0.02643366958149575049206892174",
|
"implied_profit": "3802584663.120",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.239",
|
"implied_margin": "0.02202805798457979207672410145",
|
"implied_profit": "3168820552.600",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1912",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01762244638766383366137928116",
|
"implied_profit": "2535056442.080",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1434",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01321683479074787524603446087",
|
"implied_profit": "1901292331.560",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、价格、订单或验收低于预期，利润下修且估值回归行业低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.05777430405611028",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.20682868881892835",
|
"equity_value_high": "141196397520.165960",
|
"equity_value_low": "59687568042.615612",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "10.64936888888558404763484681",
|
"price_low": "4.501778666665269743554995144",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.2573661862701824234564263033",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.6860684332869407431272667264"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM扣非利润与27家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按业务质量和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.15355919944861252",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.033374140139689756",
|
"equity_value_high": "388372375463.393552",
|
"equity_value_low": "160450451727.461320",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "29.29197037036128030823981850",
|
"price_low": "12.10155555555180019126211470",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "1.042675758044719686767072420",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.1560979389433891080012472315"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构、良率或规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.3342399986643647",
|
"cagr_low": "0.17575930376758464",
|
"equity_value_high": "803930817209.224632",
|
"equity_value_low": "427209613009.73296",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "60.63437866664784868133842209",
|
"price_low": "32.22116740739741232136566647",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "3.228338819152569643050099169",
|
"upside_to_low": "1.246943333849191933149628066"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
