{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "10.2336375",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于乐观情景上限",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_OPTIMISTIC_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-2.640934125329336709454482827"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "60.0076026",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "10",
|
"required_profit": "6211922693.00201280"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "12",
|
"required_profit": "5176602244.16834400"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "15",
|
"required_profit": "4141281795.33467520"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "18",
|
"required_profit": "3451068162.77889600"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "3105961346.50100640"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "2484769077.20080512"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "2070640897.66733760"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "1774835055.143432228571428571"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "1552980673.25050320"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "1242384538.60040256"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "1035320448.83366880"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "828256359.06693504"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "621192269.30020128"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "C1汇总快照缺逐家报告日期；仅作市场预期锚，不替代法定利润。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "0.33875",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "350670368.6"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "0.462375",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "478645643.34"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "0.6045",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "625771919.76"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池8家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-25",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260825",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.33875",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "109.9926199261992619926199262",
|
"profit_max": "350670368.6",
|
"profit_mean": "350670368.6",
|
"profit_median": "350670368.6",
|
"profit_min": "350670368.6"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.462375",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "80.58394160583941605839416058",
|
"profit_max": "478645643.34",
|
"profit_mean": "478645643.34",
|
"profit_median": "478645643.34",
|
"profit_min": "478645643.34"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.6045",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.000",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "61.63771712158808933002481390",
|
"profit_max": "625771919.76",
|
"profit_mean": "625771919.76",
|
"profit_median": "625771919.76",
|
"profit_min": "625771919.76"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-25",
|
"code": "301236.SZ",
|
"company": "软通动力",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-25",
|
"market": "深圳证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "-1.174235020432828254541940754",
|
"annual_fcf": "-1225127360.15",
|
"book_value_per_share": "12.89471553571343107417031985",
|
"current_fcf": "-3583795255.21",
|
"deduct_pe": null,
|
"diluted_shares": "1035189280.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "39894727033.710",
|
"market_cap": "38571152572.800",
|
"normalized_eps": "-0.09850899904025279318966672452",
|
"normalized_pe": null,
|
"normalized_profit": "-101975459.78999998",
|
"pb": "2.889555794914905123989521712",
|
"price": "37.26",
|
"ps": "1.065599973002181910818885662",
|
"reported_pe": "715.4605319647987331676444516",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "53910943.86",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "-101975459.79",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.05207834441639503840302519361",
|
"ttm_revenue": "36196653106.26"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-155886403.64999998",
|
"basis": "2025年报+2026最新累计期-2025同期",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "检查主营盈利恢复条件。",
|
"field": "metrics.ttm_deduct_profit",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-TTM-DEDUCT",
|
"message": "TTM 扣非利润不为正，扣非 PE 不适用。",
|
"recalc_scope": "扣非 PE 模块",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
},
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 2
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.726",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1065599973002181910818885662",
|
"implied_profit": "3857115257.280",
|
"pe": "10"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.105",
|
"implied_margin": "0.08879999775018182590157380517",
|
"implied_profit": "3214262714.400",
|
"pe": "12"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.484",
|
"implied_margin": "0.07103999820014546072125904414",
|
"implied_profit": "2571410171.520",
|
"pe": "15"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.07",
|
"implied_margin": "0.05919999850012121726771587011",
|
"implied_profit": "2142841809.600",
|
"pe": "18"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.863",
|
"implied_margin": "0.05327999865010909554094428310",
|
"implied_profit": "1928557628.640",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.4904",
|
"implied_margin": "0.04262399892008727643275542648",
|
"implied_profit": "1542846102.912",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.242",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03551999910007273036062952207",
|
"implied_profit": "1285705085.760",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.064571428571428571428571429",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03044571351434805459482530464",
|
"implied_profit": "1102032930.651428571428571429",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.9315",
|
"implied_margin": "0.02663999932505454777047214155",
|
"implied_profit": "964278814.320",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.7452",
|
"implied_margin": "0.02131199946004363821637771324",
|
"implied_profit": "771423051.456",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.621",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01775999955003636518031476103",
|
"implied_profit": "642852542.880",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.4968",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01420799964002909214425180883",
|
"implied_profit": "514282034.304",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.3726",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01065599973002181910818885662",
|
"implied_profit": "385711525.728",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、价格、订单或验收低于预期，利润下修且估值回归行业低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.3217523263426991",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.4194457604084614",
|
"equity_value_high": "5536103243.16192046",
|
"equity_value_low": "2543762853.82440",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "5.347914000000000444363179650",
|
"price_low": "2.4572925",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.8564703703703703584443591076",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.9340501207729468599033816425"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM扣非利润与8家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按业务质量和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.17326905792656178",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.3041882177810128",
|
"equity_value_high": "14896477258.128",
|
"equity_value_low": "6291026412.684",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "14.3901",
|
"price_low": "6.077175",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.6137922705314009661835748792",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8368981481481481481481481481"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构、良率或规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.05838469204077301",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.1573587230546929",
|
"equity_value_high": "28551581411.41200",
|
"equity_value_low": "16386124983.94080180",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "27.581025",
|
"price_low": "15.82911000000000173881244211",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.2597685185185185185185185185",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.5751714975845410161349317738"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
