{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "11.61824556584559879783433086",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于乐观情景上限",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_OPTIMISTIC_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-3.801929833881893329148673655"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "89.8503529",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "10",
|
"required_profit": "3664773344.45190199"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "12",
|
"required_profit": "3053977787.043251658333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "15",
|
"required_profit": "2443182229.634601326666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "18",
|
"required_profit": "2035985191.362167772222222222"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "1832386672.225950995"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "1465909337.780760796"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "1221591114.817300663333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "1047078098.41482914"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "916193336.1129754975"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "732954668.890380398"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "610795557.4086503316666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "488636445.9269202653333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "366477334.445190199"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "no_usable_forecasts",
|
"detail": [],
|
"summary": {}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-25",
|
"code": "603407.SH",
|
"company": "长裕集团",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-08-24",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-06-30"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "1.270820969919357845395641933",
|
"annual_fcf": "305687709.15",
|
"book_value_per_share": "5.255219861021666206546383789",
|
"current_fcf": "15117196.00",
|
"deduct_pe": "84.51396507632131046556628636",
|
"diluted_shares": "407875231.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "21595972325.700",
|
"market_cap": "22755359137.490",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.6601275889684999271259989798",
|
"normalized_pe": "84.51396507632132317798779180",
|
"normalized_profit": "269249692.8399999595",
|
"pb": "10.61611149969163757039017645",
|
"price": "55.79",
|
"ps": "13.02245380384826187116591297",
|
"reported_pe": "82.97731035885155198368899777",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "274235921.11",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "269249692.84",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.6723524751371823311330223923",
|
"ttm_revenue": "1747394114.83"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-4986228.2700000405",
|
"basis": "2025年报+2026最新累计期-2025同期",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 1,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "补充法定披露、行情接口或机构预测汇总页来源。",
|
"field": "institutions",
|
"issue_id": "QA-CORE-SOURCE-MISSING",
|
"message": "核心字段没有由注册表中允许承载核心数字的来源支持。",
|
"recalc_scope": "institutions",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
},
|
{
|
"action": "不得以公司业绩预告或自有情景冒充机构预期。",
|
"field": "institutions",
|
"issue_id": "QA-INSTITUTION-NONE",
|
"message": "估值日没有可用机构盈利预测，已明确记录为空。",
|
"recalc_scope": "机构预期模块",
|
"severity": "INFO"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 1
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "5.579",
|
"implied_margin": "1.302245380384826187116591297",
|
"implied_profit": "2275535913.749",
|
"pe": "10"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "4.649166666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "1.085204483654021822597159415",
|
"implied_profit": "1896279928.124166666666666667",
|
"pe": "12"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.719333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.8681635869232174580777275314",
|
"implied_profit": "1517023942.499333333333333333",
|
"pe": "15"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.099444444444444444444444444",
|
"implied_margin": "0.7234696557693478817314396094",
|
"implied_profit": "1264186618.749444444444444444",
|
"pe": "18"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.7895",
|
"implied_margin": "0.6511226901924130935582956487",
|
"implied_profit": "1137767956.8745",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.2316",
|
"implied_margin": "0.5208981521539304748466365189",
|
"implied_profit": "910214365.4996",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.859666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.4340817934616087290388637658",
|
"implied_profit": "758511971.2496666666666666667",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.594",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3720701086813789106047403707",
|
"implied_profit": "650153118.214",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.39475",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3255613450962065467791478243",
|
"implied_profit": "568883978.43725",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.1158",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2604490760769652374233182595",
|
"implied_profit": "455107182.7498",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.9298333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2170408967308043645194318829",
|
"implied_profit": "379255985.6248333333333333333",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.7438666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1736327173846434916155455063",
|
"implied_profit": "303404788.4998666666666666667",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.5579",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1302245380384826187116591297",
|
"implied_profit": "227553591.3749",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、价格、订单或验收低于预期，利润下修且估值回归行业低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.36139711934499785",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.4509720869535154",
|
"equity_value_high": "2416785242.93183976",
|
"equity_value_low": "1135156705.01344",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "5.925305238581255648740288424",
|
"price_low": "2.783097915091196111391230815",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.8937927005093877818831280082",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.9501147532695609229003185012"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM扣非利润与无家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按业务质量和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.2162053293409708",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.34485966443100213",
|
"equity_value_high": "6731242320.99999900",
|
"equity_value_low": "2746346866.96799964",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "16.50318972421249820879660133",
|
"price_low": "6.733301407478699386872060392",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.7041908993688385336297436578",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8793098869424861196115422048"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构、良率或规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.10586369183250477",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.20112129770947584",
|
"equity_value_high": "13004760164.17199636",
|
"equity_value_low": "7404366553.100",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "31.88416254717854235183994294",
|
"price_low": "18.15350869663375072657942301",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.4284968175805961220319063821",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.6746099893057223386524570172"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
