{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "32.03819999999999603877437594",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-0.4638774962388650360740943182"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "75.532919",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "10",
|
"required_profit": "3260639603.7024425"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "12",
|
"required_profit": "2717199669.752035416666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "15",
|
"required_profit": "2173759735.801628333333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "18",
|
"required_profit": "1811466446.501356944444444444"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "1630319801.85122125"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "1304255841.4809770"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "1086879867.900814166666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "931611315.3435550"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "815159900.925610625"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "652127920.7404885"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "543439933.9504070833333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "434751947.1603256666666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "326063960.37024425"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "C1汇总快照缺逐家报告日期；仅作市场预期锚，不替代法定利润。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "1.396",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "602631666.6999999"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "1.868",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "806386786.1"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "2.434",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "1050720255.5500001"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池5家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-25",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260825",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.396",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0000000000000001659388404655171709281238250",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "33.59598853868195399894815031",
|
"profit_max": "602631666.6999999",
|
"profit_mean": "602631666.6999999",
|
"profit_median": "602631666.6999999",
|
"profit_min": "602631666.6999999"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.868",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.000",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "25.10706638115631691648822270",
|
"profit_max": "806386786.1",
|
"profit_mean": "806386786.1",
|
"profit_median": "806386786.1",
|
"profit_min": "806386786.1"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "2.434",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000009517281071892436734962392637",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "19.26869350862777137896268582",
|
"profit_max": "1050720255.5500001",
|
"profit_mean": "1050720255.5500001",
|
"profit_median": "1050720255.5500001",
|
"profit_min": "1050720255.5500001"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-25",
|
"code": "603530.SH",
|
"company": "神马电力",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-08-13",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-06-30"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "0.2715476684183438708899259126",
|
"annual_fcf": "-121354957.79",
|
"book_value_per_share": "4.204951484472198247991603592",
|
"current_fcf": "184173617.94",
|
"deduct_pe": "43.03176653666064101851664141",
|
"diluted_shares": "431684575.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "20480368637.79999999",
|
"market_cap": "20246006567.50",
|
"normalized_eps": "1.089892509061737964577492721",
|
"normalized_pe": "43.03176653666064083559336466",
|
"normalized_profit": "470489784.570000002",
|
"pb": "11.15351750744083699731046868",
|
"price": "46.9",
|
"ps": "10.59590958282842992927292818",
|
"reported_pe": "41.64230011849581892126877626",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "486188479.26",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "470489784.57",
|
"ttm_eps": "1.126258632845521524599297994",
|
"ttm_revenue": "1910737951.21"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-15698694.689999998",
|
"basis": "2025年报+2026最新累计期-2025同期",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 1
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "4.69",
|
"implied_margin": "1.059590958282842992927292818",
|
"implied_profit": "2024600656.75",
|
"pe": "10"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.908333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.8829924652357024941060773484",
|
"implied_profit": "1687167213.958333333333333333",
|
"pe": "12"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.126666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.7063939721885619952848618790",
|
"implied_profit": "1349733771.166666666666666667",
|
"pe": "15"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.605555555555555555555555556",
|
"implied_margin": "0.5886616434904683294040515657",
|
"implied_profit": "1124778142.638888888888888889",
|
"pe": "18"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.345",
|
"implied_margin": "0.5297954791414214964636464091",
|
"implied_profit": "1012300328.375",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.876",
|
"implied_margin": "0.4238363833131371971709171273",
|
"implied_profit": "809840262.70",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.563333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3531969860942809976424309394",
|
"implied_profit": "674866885.5833333333333333333",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.34",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3027402737950979979792265195",
|
"implied_profit": "578457330.50",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.1725",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2648977395707107482318232046",
|
"implied_profit": "506150164.1875",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.938",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2119181916565685985854585636",
|
"implied_profit": "404920131.35",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.7816666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1765984930471404988212154697",
|
"implied_profit": "337433442.7916666666666666667",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.6253333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1412787944377123990569723757",
|
"implied_profit": "269946754.2333333333333333333",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.469",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1059590958282842992927292818",
|
"implied_profit": "202460065.675",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、价格、订单或验收低于预期，利润下修且估值回归行业低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.18132322308275484",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.2961566320692468",
|
"equity_value_high": "7445634768.41183928",
|
"equity_value_low": "3497192088.19343952",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "17.24785919999999833211552671",
|
"price_low": "8.101267199999998888077017809",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.6322418081023454513408203260",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8272650916844349917254367205"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM扣非利润与5家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按业务质量和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.010554974485766588",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.1601225196447782",
|
"equity_value_high": "19199844901.0619973",
|
"equity_value_low": "8460948600.46799928",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "44.47655999999999374543322517",
|
"price_low": "19.59983999999999833211552671",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.0516724946695097282423619367",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.5820929637526652807651273623"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构、良率或规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.12992977553874785",
|
"cagr_low": "0.008486772825341049",
|
"equity_value_high": "37290365430.0626286",
|
"equity_value_low": "21119829391.1681973",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "86.38336319999997359182917296",
|
"price_low": "48.92421599999999374543322517",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.841862754797440801531538869",
|
"upside_to_low": "0.043160255863539312269365142"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
