{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "8.40419999999999880028971372",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于乐观情景上限",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_OPTIMISTIC_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-4.380643011827420391615236202"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "72.8272622",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "10",
|
"required_profit": "9105606124.17131676"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "12",
|
"required_profit": "7588005103.47609730"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "15",
|
"required_profit": "6070404082.78087784"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "18",
|
"required_profit": "5058670068.984064866666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "4552803062.08565838"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "3642242449.668526704"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "3035202041.39043892"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "2601601749.76323336"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "2276401531.04282919"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "1821121224.834263352"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "1517601020.69521946"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "1214080816.556175568"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "910560612.417131676"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "C1汇总快照缺逐家报告日期；仅作市场预期锚，不替代法定利润。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "0.21",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "262563390.17999998"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "0.25",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "312575464.5"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "0.29",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "362587538.82"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池2家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-25",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260825",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.21",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000007617208166869351748953576592",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "215.3333333333333497357215860",
|
"profit_max": "262563390.17999998",
|
"profit_mean": "262563390.17999998",
|
"profit_median": "262563390.17999998",
|
"profit_min": "262563390.17999998"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.25",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "180.88",
|
"profit_max": "312575464.5",
|
"profit_mean": "312575464.5",
|
"profit_median": "312575464.5",
|
"profit_min": "312575464.5"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.29",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "155.9310344827586206896551724",
|
"profit_max": "362587538.82",
|
"profit_mean": "362587538.82",
|
"profit_median": "362587538.82",
|
"profit_min": "362587538.82"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-25",
|
"code": "688432.SH",
|
"company": "有研硅",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-08-14",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-06-30"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "1.310157817437765680813273669",
|
"annual_fcf": "130401705.86",
|
"book_value_per_share": "3.649941675572555215702158862",
|
"current_fcf": "70431292.16",
|
"deduct_pe": "390.0979932739683731525955367",
|
"diluted_shares": "1250301858.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "54503095601.3899998",
|
"market_cap": "56538650018.760",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.1159195914351748727866003059",
|
"normalized_pe": "390.0979932739682924061799577",
|
"normalized_profit": "144934480.55000003",
|
"pb": "12.38923906719864956567955671",
|
"price": "45.22",
|
"ps": "50.41109147273959855353779790",
|
"reported_pe": "239.1207949664771145940868353",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "236443886.14",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "144934480.55",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.1891094415537531737395850531",
|
"ttm_revenue": "1121551792.81"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-91509405.58999997",
|
"basis": "2025年报+2026最新累计期-2025同期",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [],
|
"status": "PASS",
|
"warning_count": 0
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "4.522",
|
"implied_margin": "5.041109147273959855353779790",
|
"implied_profit": "5653865001.876",
|
"pe": "10"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.768333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "4.200924289394966546128149825",
|
"implied_profit": "4711554168.230",
|
"pe": "12"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.014666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "3.360739431515973236902519860",
|
"implied_profit": "3769243334.584",
|
"pe": "15"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.512222222222222222222222222",
|
"implied_margin": "2.800616192929977697418766550",
|
"implied_profit": "3141036112.153333333333333333",
|
"pe": "18"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.261",
|
"implied_margin": "2.520554573636979927676889895",
|
"implied_profit": "2826932500.938",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.8088",
|
"implied_margin": "2.016443658909583942141511916",
|
"implied_profit": "2261546000.7504",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.507333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "1.680369715757986618451259930",
|
"implied_profit": "1884621667.292",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.292",
|
"implied_margin": "1.440316899221131387243937083",
|
"implied_profit": "1615390000.536",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.1305",
|
"implied_margin": "1.260277286818489963838444947",
|
"implied_profit": "1413466250.469",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.9044",
|
"implied_margin": "1.008221829454791971070755958",
|
"implied_profit": "1130773000.3752",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.7536666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.8401848578789933092256299650",
|
"implied_profit": "942310833.646",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.6029333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.6721478863031946473805039720",
|
"implied_profit": "753848666.9168",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.4522",
|
"implied_margin": "0.5041109147273959855353779790",
|
"implied_profit": "565386500.1876",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、价格、订单或验收低于预期，利润下修且估值回归行业低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.37465820883110124",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.4623730820098019",
|
"equity_value_high": "5406705330.586560",
|
"equity_value_low": "2539513109.820960",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "4.32432",
|
"price_low": "2.03112",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.9043715170278637770897832817",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.9550835913312693498452012384"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM扣非利润与2家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按业务质量和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.2343991687894762",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.3584641671338795",
|
"equity_value_high": "14871590419.79519760",
|
"equity_value_low": "6143983330.21199940",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "11.89439999999999808046354195",
|
"price_low": "4.913999999999999520115885487",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.7369659442724458628822746141",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8913312693498452118505996133"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构、良率或规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.12454919051349511",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.21966527535107316",
|
"equity_value_high": "29073959270.6996092",
|
"equity_value_low": "16358749461.77472",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "23.25355199999999456131336886",
|
"price_low": "13.08384",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.4857684210526316992190763189",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.7106625386996904024767801858"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
