fix multi valuation inputs and quarantine batch anomalies

Cai

2026-08-26 96f271048f97056125ac0b6aeb9ef99a18d871a8

 ana-data/result/股票估值/20260825_industry_gap_002407_valuation/calculation/valuation_results.json

@@ -1,9 +1,9 @@
{
  "conclusion": {
    "base_midpoint": "74.77875",
    "price_label": "当前价格低于基准合理区间",
    "price_position": "BELOW_BASE_RANGE",
    "safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "0.5469301104926198953579726861"
    "base_midpoint": "25.15892187422167210547815582",
    "price_label": "当前价格高于基准合理区间",
    "price_position": "ABOVE_BASE_RANGE",
    "safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-0.3466395805582637729549248745"
  },
  "engine_version": "1.0.0",
  "holding_period": {
@@ -70,63 +70,117 @@
    "coverage_status": "available",
    "detail": [
      {
        "core_assumption": "C1汇总快照缺逐家报告日期；仅作市场预期锚，不替代法定利润。",
        "core_assumption": "半年报后因二季度六氟磷酸锂价格和价差收窄，下调2026至2028年盈利预测。",
        "estimates": {
          "2026": {
            "eps": "1.955",
            "eps": "1.12",
            "mark": "E",
            "profit": "2327295672.395"
            "profit": "1336000000.0"
          },
          "2027": {
            "eps": "2.39",
            "eps": "1.65",
            "mark": "E",
            "profit": "2845133839.9100003"
            "profit": "1964000000.0"
          },
          "2028": {
            "eps": "3.095",
            "eps": "2.49",
            "mark": "E",
            "profit": "3684388801.0550003"
            "profit": "2961000000.0"
          }
        },
        "included": true,
        "institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池2家）",
        "report_date": "2026-08-25",
        "source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260825",
        "institution": "华安证券",
        "report_date": "2026-08-20",
        "source_id": "SRC-THS-FORECAST-DETAIL-20260825",
        "statuses": [
          "CURRENT"
        ]
      },
      {
        "core_assumption": "发布早于2026年半年报，仅保留为公告前市场预期差证据，不进入当前一致预期。",
        "estimates": {
          "2026": {
            "eps": "1.80",
            "mark": "E",
            "profit": "2137000000.0"
          },
          "2027": {
            "eps": "2.26",
            "mark": "E",
            "profit": "2694000000.0"
          },
          "2028": {
            "eps": "3.19",
            "mark": "E",
            "profit": "3794000000.0"
          }
        },
        "included": false,
        "institution": "中原证券",
        "report_date": "2026-04-28",
        "source_id": "SRC-THS-FORECAST-DETAIL-20260825",
        "statuses": [
          "STALE_BEFORE_LATEST_DISCLOSURE"
        ]
      },
      {
        "core_assumption": "发布早于2026年半年报，仅保留为公告前市场预期差证据，不进入当前一致预期。",
        "estimates": {
          "2026": {
            "eps": "2.11",
            "mark": "E",
            "profit": "2506000000.0"
          },
          "2027": {
            "eps": "2.52",
            "mark": "E",
            "profit": "2998000000.0"
          },
          "2028": {
            "eps": "3.00",
            "mark": "E",
            "profit": "3570000000.0"
          }
        },
        "included": false,
        "institution": "光大证券",
        "report_date": "2026-04-27",
        "source_id": "SRC-THS-FORECAST-DETAIL-20260825",
        "statuses": [
          "STALE_BEFORE_LATEST_DISCLOSURE"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "summary": {
      "2026": {
        "eps_mean": "1.955",
        "eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
        "eps_mean": "1.12",
        "eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.002032576886227544910179640719",
        "institution_count": 1,
        "pe_on_mean": "17.32992327365728900255754476",
        "profit_max": "2327295672.395",
        "profit_mean": "2327295672.395",
        "profit_median": "2327295672.395",
        "profit_min": "2327295672.395"
        "pe_on_mean": "30.18851454919161676646706587",
        "profit_max": "1336000000.0",
        "profit_mean": "1336000000.0",
        "profit_median": "1336000000.0",
        "profit_min": "1336000000.0"
      },
      "2027": {
        "eps_mean": "2.39",
        "eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0000000000000001054431941976725621613752523",
        "eps_mean": "1.65",
        "eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0001088283350305498981670061100",
        "institution_count": 1,
        "pe_on_mean": "14.17573221757322026258769062",
        "profit_max": "2845133839.9100003",
        "profit_mean": "2845133839.9100003",
        "profit_median": "2845133839.9100003",
        "profit_min": "2845133839.9100003"
        "pe_on_mean": "20.53556794181262729124236253",
        "profit_max": "1964000000.0",
        "profit_mean": "1964000000.0",
        "profit_median": "1964000000.0",
        "profit_min": "1964000000.0"
      },
      "2028": {
        "eps_mean": "3.095",
        "eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000008142463138366314365705540315",
        "eps_mean": "2.49",
        "eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.001072981023302938196555217832",
        "institution_count": 1,
        "pe_on_mean": "10.94668820678513642692519829",
        "profit_max": "3684388801.0550003",
        "profit_mean": "3684388801.0550003",
        "profit_median": "3684388801.0550003",
        "profit_min": "3684388801.0550003"
        "pe_on_mean": "13.62102513938534278959810875",
        "profit_max": "2961000000.0",
        "profit_mean": "2961000000.0",
        "profit_median": "2961000000.0",
        "profit_min": "2961000000.0"
      }
    }
  },
@@ -146,7 +200,7 @@
    "current_fcf": "-148396886.41",
    "deduct_pe": "67.30314410031407103073652740",
    "diluted_shares": "1190432569.0",
    "enterprise_value": "46158570811.630",
    "enterprise_value": "48275865790.200",
    "market_cap": "40331855437.720",
    "normalized_eps": "0.5033940160284710842786089802",
    "normalized_pe": "67.30314410031406990762598447",
@@ -178,10 +232,26 @@
        "message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
        "recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
        "severity": "WARNING"
      },
      {
        "action": "保留作公告前预期对照，但不纳入当前一致预期。",
        "field": "institutions.中原证券",
        "issue_id": "QA-INSTITUTION-STALE",
        "message": "机构预测已早于最新经营信息或低于已实现累计利润。",
        "recalc_scope": "机构预期与 Forward PE",
        "severity": "WARNING"
      },
      {
        "action": "保留作公告前预期对照，但不纳入当前一致预期。",
        "field": "institutions.光大证券",
        "issue_id": "QA-INSTITUTION-STALE",
        "message": "机构预测已早于最新经营信息或低于已实现累计利润。",
        "recalc_scope": "机构预期与 Forward PE",
        "severity": "WARNING"
      }
    ],
    "status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
    "warning_count": 1
    "warning_count": 3
  },
  "reverse_pe": [
    {
@@ -265,46 +335,46 @@
  ],
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "assumption": "需求、价格、订单或验收低于预期，利润下修且估值回归行业低位。",
      "cagr_high": "0.035095398466845174",
      "cagr_low": "-0.11009442074332432",
      "equity_value_high": "47923672485.957840",
      "equity_value_low": "22509603743.404440",
      "assumption": "六氟磷酸锂价格与价差继续回落，电池业务低毛利拖累，归一化NTM扣非利润降至9至11亿元。",
      "cagr_high": "-0.11863496197172096",
      "cagr_low": "-0.16217520836793398",
      "equity_value_high": "21450000000.00",
      "equity_value_low": "16650000000.00",
      "method": "pe",
      "name": "悲观",
      "price_high": "40.25736",
      "price_low": "18.90876",
      "price_high": "18.01866024046927768489170091",
      "price_low": "13.98651249435027848267817343",
      "role": "pessimistic",
      "upside_to_high": "0.188233766233766233766233766",
      "upside_to_low": "-0.4418902007083825265643447462"
      "upside_to_high": "-0.4681623305646612253573878126",
      "upside_to_low": "-0.5871749558928489231795108197"
    },
    {
      "assumption": "以TTM扣非利润与2家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按业务质量和周期属性定价。",
      "cagr_high": "0.2510065288553067",
      "cagr_low": "0.06190054451672289",
      "equity_value_high": "123579400204.1745",
      "equity_value_low": "54458718734.0430",
      "assumption": "以半年报后华安证券2026年13.36亿元、2027年19.64亿元归母预测为外部锚，结合TTM扣非5.99亿元和二季度环比降速，采用14至17亿元归一化NTM扣非利润。",
      "cagr_high": "-0.03357947935918826",
      "cagr_low": "-0.08476986265031938",
      "equity_value_high": "34000000000.00",
      "equity_value_low": "25900000000.00",
      "method": "pe",
      "name": "基准",
      "price_high": "103.8105",
      "price_low": "45.747",
      "price_high": "28.56104653500957768234581962",
      "price_low": "21.75679721343376652861049201",
      "role": "base",
      "upside_to_high": "2.064064344746162927981109799",
      "upside_to_low": "0.350265643447461629279811098"
      "upside_to_high": "-0.1569939039253371404266287007",
      "upside_to_low": "-0.3578277091666538805014612748"
    },
    {
      "assumption": "订单、产品结构、良率或规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
      "cagr_high": "0.43606984243885205",
      "cagr_low": "0.2750819949931329",
      "equity_value_high": "246334937740.3211440",
      "equity_value_low": "135937340224.59195",
      "assumption": "六氟磷酸锂景气和新能源电池盈利超预期，电子信息材料逐步贡献增量；为避免周期利润与估值倍数双重上调，倍数不高于20倍。",
      "cagr_high": "0.052133935023510825",
      "cagr_low": "0.001818947928727388",
      "equity_value_high": "52000000000.00",
      "equity_value_low": "40700000000.00",
      "method": "pe",
      "name": "乐观",
      "price_high": "206.9289299999999781591997085",
      "price_low": "114.19155",
      "price_high": "43.68160058295582469064654766",
      "price_low": "34.18925276396734740210220172",
      "role": "optimistic",
      "upside_to_high": "5.107701593860684125123958338",
      "upside_to_low": "2.370470779220779220779220779"
      "upside_to_high": "0.289303441055366726406332576",
      "upside_to_low": "0.009127885595258187783417996"
    }
  ]
}