{
"snapshot_id": "SNAPSHOT-601606-20260731-REGRESSION-V1",
"meta": {
"company": "长城军工",
"code": "601606.SH",
"market": "上海证券交易所",
"as_of_date": "2026-07-31",
"currency": "CNY",
"report_period_end": "2026-06-30",
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-07-28"
},
"market": {
"price": 33.94,
"price_type": "收盘价",
"price_timestamp": "2026-07-31T15:00:00+08:00",
"diluted_shares": 724228400,
"shares_date": "2026-03-31",
"platform_market_cap": 24580310000
},
"financials": {
"annual": {
"period_end": "2025-12-31",
"basis": "audited",
"revenue": 1564260000,
"attributable_profit": 8350000,
"deduct_profit": -12860000,
"cfo": -73500000,
"capex": 171270000
},
"current_cumulative": {
"period_end": "2026-06-30",
"basis": "company_performance_forecast",
"revenue": 157630000,
"attributable_profit": -96000000,
"deduct_profit": -105000000,
"cfo": null,
"capex": null
},
"prior_year_same_period": {
"period_end": "2025-06-30",
"basis": "reported_comparative",
"revenue": 147930000,
"attributable_profit": -27400000,
"deduct_profit": -37740000,
"cfo": null,
"capex": null
}
},
"balance_sheet": {
"period_end": "2026-03-31",
"equity": 2182170000,
"cash_available": 349000000,
"non_operating_financial_assets": 43000000,
"interest_bearing_debt": 451000000,
"minority_interest": 0
},
"normalization": {
"adjustments": []
},
"valuation": {
"scenarios": [
{
"name": "悲观",
"role": "pessimistic",
"method": "pb",
"multiple_low": 0.8,
"multiple_high": 1.2,
"assumption": "继续亏损或仅盈亏平衡，使用净资产压力区间"
},
{
"name": "基准",
"role": "base",
"method": "pe",
"profit_low": 100000000,
"profit_high": 150000000,
"multiple_low": 30,
"multiple_high": 35,
"assumption": "利润恢复至较好历史阶段附近"
},
{
"name": "乐观",
"role": "optimistic",
"method": "pe",
"profit_low": 250000000,
"profit_high": 350000000,
"multiple_low": 40,
"multiple_high": 50,
"assumption": "订单、毛利和亏损子公司同时显著改善，不含未知资产注入"
}
],
"reverse_pe_multiples": [30, 40, 50, 60, 80],
"exit_pe_multiples": [30, 40, 50, 60],
"holding_period": {
"years": 5,
"required_return": 0.105,
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": 0
}
},
"institutions": {
"coverage_status": "no_usable_forecasts",
"forecasts": []
},
"sources": [
{
"id": "SRC-ANNUAL-2025",
"source_type": "financial_mirror",
"title": "长城军工 2025 年年度报告（公告原文镜像）",
"publish_date": "2026-04-25",
"period_end": "2025-12-31",
"url": "https://file.finance.sina.com.cn/211.154.219.97%3A9494/MRGG/CNSESH_STOCK/2026/2026-4/2026-04-25/12186260.PDF",
"supports": ["financials.annual"],
"revision_status": "current"
},
{
"id": "SRC-Q1-2026",
"source_type": "financial_mirror",
"title": "长城军工 2026 年第一季度报告（公告原文镜像）",
"publish_date": "2026-04-25",
"period_end": "2026-03-31",
"url": "https://file.finance.sina.com.cn/211.154.219.97%3A9494/MRGG/CNSESH_STOCK/2026/2026-4/2026-04-25/12186262.PDF",
"supports": ["market.diluted_shares", "balance_sheet.equity"],
"revision_status": "current"
},
{
"id": "SRC-H1-FORECAST-2026",
"source_type": "financial_mirror",
"title": "长城军工 2026 年半年度业绩预告",
"publish_date": "2026-07-15",
"period_end": "2026-06-30",
"url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?id=12442406&stockid=601606",
"supports": ["financials.current_cumulative", "financials.prior_year_same_period"],
"revision_status": "current"
},
{
"id": "SRC-QUOTE-20260731",
"source_type": "quote_provider",
"title": "东方财富行情接口",
"publish_date": "2026-07-31",
"period_end": "2026-07-31",
"url": "https://push2.eastmoney.com/api/qt/stock/get?secid=1.601606",
"supports": ["market.price", "market.platform_market_cap"],
"revision_status": "current"
},
{
"id": "SRC-INSTITUTION-20260731",
"source_type": "institution_aggregator",
"title": "同花顺机构盈利预测汇总",
"publish_date": "2026-07-31",
"period_end": "2026-07-31",
"url": "https://basic.10jqka.com.cn/601606/worth.html",
"supports": ["institutions"],
"revision_status": "current"
},
{
"id": "SRC-SSE-RISK-20260725",
"source_type": "sse",
"title": "长城军工股票交易异常波动公告",
"publish_date": "2026-07-25",
"period_end": null,
"url": "http://static.sse.com.cn/disclosure/listedinfo/announcement/c/new/2026-07-25/601606_20260725_F2ZX.pdf",
"supports": ["corporate_action", "restructuring_status"],
"revision_status": "current"
}
],
"analysis": {
"company_type": "项目制、订单集中、军工制造",
"primary_model": "正常化 PE 情景",
"cross_checks": ["PB/ROE", "PS", "反向 PE", "现金流压力测试"],
"profit_sources": [
"特品业务贡献约八成毛利润，是主要盈利来源。",
"民品有利润贡献，但规模和毛利率不足以决定整体估值。",
"政府补助等非经常性收益不作为高倍估值的核心利润来源。"
],
"profit_source_quality": [
"项目交付、验收和审价使利润跨期波动，不能机械年化。",
"亏损子公司改善、订单连续性和回款是利润恢复的关键验证项。"
],
"cashflow_notes": [
"最近年度 CFO 和简化 FCF 均为负，正向 DCF 可靠性不足。",
"应收、存货和受限资金需要在后续报告期继续核验。"
],
"risks": [
"项目延期、审价调整和原材料价格变化继续压低利润。",
"资产重组尚无涉及上市公司的可估值交易条款。",
"高估值依赖远期盈利兑现，预期落空会造成估值压缩。"
],
"upgrade_triggers": [
"连续报告期收入、毛利率、扣非利润和经营现金流同步改善。",
"正式披露重大订单并能验证交付、毛利与回款。",
"多家机构在最新公告后恢复覆盖且预测可由订单和财报支撑。"
],
"downgrade_triggers": [
"亏损继续扩大或应收、存货增速显著高于收入。",
"重组预期被正式澄清为不涉及上市公司。",
"新增融资、转债或股权激励造成明显摊薄。"
],
"executive_conclusion": "按现有业务情景，当前价格明显偏贵；其合理性依赖尚未被正式披露证明的超常利润增长或资产注入。"
}
}
