From 129e0ebd2ca859b3463ad2c31ae335c72bace22d Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Cai <cai@nbcai.cc>
Date: Sat, 05 Sep 2026 23:02:28 +0800
Subject: [PATCH] 刷新2026H1股票估值覆盖与半导体三子链
---
ana-data/result/股票估值/当前估值/03888.HK/金山软件估值快照_当前.json | 166 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
1 files changed, 166 insertions(+), 0 deletions(-)
diff --git "a/ana-data/result/\350\202\241\347\245\250\344\274\260\345\200\274/\345\275\223\345\211\215\344\274\260\345\200\274/03888.HK/\351\207\221\345\261\261\350\275\257\344\273\266\344\274\260\345\200\274\345\277\253\347\205\247_\345\275\223\345\211\215.json" "b/ana-data/result/\350\202\241\347\245\250\344\274\260\345\200\274/\345\275\223\345\211\215\344\274\260\345\200\274/03888.HK/\351\207\221\345\261\261\350\275\257\344\273\266\344\274\260\345\200\274\345\277\253\347\205\247_\345\275\223\345\211\215.json"
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..7bbb8ea
--- /dev/null
+++ "b/ana-data/result/\350\202\241\347\245\250\344\274\260\345\200\274/\345\275\223\345\211\215\344\274\260\345\200\274/03888.HK/\351\207\221\345\261\261\350\275\257\344\273\266\344\274\260\345\200\274\345\277\253\347\205\247_\345\275\223\345\211\215.json"
@@ -0,0 +1,166 @@
+{
+ "snapshot_id": "03888-HK-20260905-current",
+ "meta": {
+ "company": "金山软件",
+ "code": "03888.HK",
+ "market": "香港联合交易所主板",
+ "as_of_date": "2026-09-05",
+ "currency": "HKD",
+ "report_period_end": "2026-06-30",
+ "latest_operating_info_date": "2026-08-19"
+ },
+ "market": {
+ "price": 25.60,
+ "price_type": "香港市场最新完整交易日未复权收盘价",
+ "price_timestamp": "2026-09-04T16:00:00+08:00",
+ "diluted_shares": 1374440310,
+ "shares_date": "2026-09-05",
+ "platform_market_cap": 35185671936
+ },
+ "financials": {
+ "annual": {
+ "period_end": "2025-12-31",
+ "basis": "audited_converted_to_hkd_at_2026-09-04_central_parity",
+ "revenue": 11199519998.15,
+ "attributable_profit": 2318337227.32,
+ "deduct_profit": 2318337227.32,
+ "cfo": 2650558652.76,
+ "capex": null
+ },
+ "current_cumulative": {
+ "period_end": "2026-06-30",
+ "basis": "interim_report_unaudited_converted_to_hkd_at_2026-09-04_central_parity",
+ "revenue": 5698873441.44,
+ "attributable_profit": 1896037382.31,
+ "deduct_profit": 671511022.69,
+ "cfo": 820797381.39,
+ "capex": null
+ },
+ "prior_year_same_period": {
+ "period_end": "2025-06-30",
+ "basis": "reported_comparative_converted_to_hkd_at_2026-09-04_central_parity",
+ "revenue": 5373021582.73,
+ "attributable_profit": 944174049.83,
+ "deduct_profit": 770798538.02,
+ "cfo": 768999976.87,
+ "capex": null
+ }
+ },
+ "balance_sheet": {
+ "period_end": "2026-06-30",
+ "equity": 31325134747.51,
+ "cash_available": 28330625274.70,
+ "non_operating_financial_assets": 3903786809.78,
+ "interest_bearing_debt": 255509033.29,
+ "minority_interest": 9237049193.60
+ },
+ "normalization": {
+ "adjustments": [
+ {
+ "description": "2026H1以公司披露的经调整归母净利润替代受未实现投资收益显著影响的IFRS归母利润",
+ "amount": -1224526359.62,
+ "basis": "2026H1 IFRS归母16.393亿元人民币，非IFRS经调整归母5.806亿元人民币"
+ }
+ ]
+ },
+ "valuation": {
+ "scenarios": [
+ {
+ "name": "悲观",
+ "role": "pessimistic",
+ "method": "pe",
+ "profit_low": 925767889.61,
+ "profit_high": 1272298688.84,
+ "multiple_low": 12,
+ "multiple_high": 18,
+ "assumption": "游戏继续收缩、AI投入压制费用率，经调整利润低于H1年化水平。"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "基准",
+ "role": "base",
+ "method": "pe",
+ "profit_low": 1387957158.85,
+ "profit_high": 1850609561.40,
+ "multiple_low": 18,
+ "multiple_high": 24,
+ "assumption": "WPS维持较快增长，游戏降幅逐步收窄，估值以经调整利润并保留控股折价。"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "乐观",
+ "role": "optimistic",
+ "method": "pe",
+ "profit_low": 1966291112.45,
+ "profit_high": 2549237761.23,
+ "multiple_low": 24,
+ "multiple_high": 30,
+ "assumption": "WPS AI商业化超预期、游戏新品改善，经常利润恢复且投资收益占比下降。"
+ }
+ ],
+ "reverse_pe_multiples": [12, 15, 18, 20, 22, 24, 25, 30, 35, 40],
+ "exit_pe_multiples": [12, 15, 18, 20, 22, 24, 25, 30],
+ "holding_period": {
+ "years": 5,
+ "required_return": 0.1,
+ "cumulative_dividend_per_share": 0.13
+ }
+ },
+ "institutions": {
+ "coverage_status": "no_usable_forecasts",
+ "forecasts": []
+ },
+ "sources": [
+ {
+ "id": "SRC-HKEX-03888-H1-20260819",
+ "source_type": "archived_primary",
+ "title": "金山软件截至2026年6月30日止六个月及三个月业绩公告",
+ "publish_date": "2026-08-19",
+ "period_end": "2026-06-30",
+ "url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0819/2026081901069.pdf",
+ "supports": ["financials.current_cumulative", "financials.prior_year_same_period", "balance_sheet.equity", "balance_sheet.cash_available", "balance_sheet.interest_bearing_debt", "analysis"],
+ "revision_status": "current"
+ },
+ {
+ "id": "SRC-HKEX-03888-ANNUAL-2025",
+ "source_type": "archived_primary",
+ "title": "金山软件2025年年度业绩公告",
+ "publish_date": "2026-03-25",
+ "period_end": "2025-12-31",
+ "url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0325/2026032500615.pdf",
+ "supports": ["financials.annual"],
+ "revision_status": "current"
+ },
+ {
+ "id": "SRC-EM-03888-20260904",
+ "source_type": "quote_provider",
+ "title": "东方财富金山软件2026-09-04未复权日K与总股本",
+ "publish_date": "2026-09-05",
+ "period_end": "2026-09-04",
+ "url": "https://push2his.eastmoney.com/api/qt/stock/kline/get?secid=116.03888",
+ "supports": ["market.price", "market.diluted_shares", "market.platform_market_cap"],
+ "revision_status": "current"
+ },
+ {
+ "id": "SRC-FX-HKD-CNY-20260904",
+ "source_type": "professional_database",
+ "title": "2026-09-04人民币汇率中间价：1港元兑0.86458人民币",
+ "publish_date": "2026-09-04",
+ "period_end": "2026-09-04",
+ "url": "https://hzf.mofcom.gov.cn/article/zyfw/jrfw/jrfwywzn/jrfwwh/hlfxglzy/202609/7872.html",
+ "supports": ["financials", "balance_sheet", "valuation"],
+ "revision_status": "current"
+ }
+ ],
+ "analysis": {
+ "company_type": "控股型软件集团，核心为金山办公与网络游戏",
+ "primary_model": "经调整归母利润PE，控股折价、净现金和分部趋势交叉验证",
+ "cross_checks": ["2026H1经调整归母利润", "WPS与游戏分部趋势", "净现金", "控股公司折价"],
+ "profit_sources": ["2026H1办公软件及服务收入33.13亿元人民币，同比增长25%；游戏及其他收入16.14亿元，同比下降19%。"],
+ "profit_source_quality": ["H1 IFRS归母16.39亿元含大额合营及联营投资未实现收益，经调整归母仅5.81亿元且同比下降13%，估值必须采用后者。"],
+ "risks": ["游戏收入继续下滑。", "WPS AI研发和营销投入可能压制利润率。", "投资收益波动会显著扭曲报表利润。", "控股折价与所持上市资产价格波动影响SOTP。"],
+ "upgrade_triggers": ["WPS AI付费和WPS 365加速且利润率稳定。", "游戏新品带动经常利润恢复。"],
+ "downgrade_triggers": ["经调整利润继续下滑或游戏收入维持双位数下降。", "控股折价扩大。"],
+ "fx_rate_cny_per_hkd": 0.86458,
+ "executive_conclusion": "25.60港元位于基准合理区间约18.18—32.31港元，判断为基本合理；估值安全垫主要来自净现金，但经常利润仍受游戏下滑与AI投入约束。",
+ "information_cutoff": "2026-09-05T23:30:00+08:00"
+ }
+}
--
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