From 129e0ebd2ca859b3463ad2c31ae335c72bace22d Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Cai <cai@nbcai.cc>
Date: Sat, 05 Sep 2026 23:02:28 +0800
Subject: [PATCH] 刷新2026H1股票估值覆盖与半导体三子链
---
ana-data/result/股票估值/当前估值/09880.HK/优必选估值快照_当前.json | 170 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
1 files changed, 170 insertions(+), 0 deletions(-)
diff --git "a/ana-data/result/\350\202\241\347\245\250\344\274\260\345\200\274/\345\275\223\345\211\215\344\274\260\345\200\274/09880.HK/\344\274\230\345\277\205\351\200\211\344\274\260\345\200\274\345\277\253\347\205\247_\345\275\223\345\211\215.json" "b/ana-data/result/\350\202\241\347\245\250\344\274\260\345\200\274/\345\275\223\345\211\215\344\274\260\345\200\274/09880.HK/\344\274\230\345\277\205\351\200\211\344\274\260\345\200\274\345\277\253\347\205\247_\345\275\223\345\211\215.json"
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..e2a6b4c
--- /dev/null
+++ "b/ana-data/result/\350\202\241\347\245\250\344\274\260\345\200\274/\345\275\223\345\211\215\344\274\260\345\200\274/09880.HK/\344\274\230\345\277\205\351\200\211\344\274\260\345\200\274\345\277\253\347\205\247_\345\275\223\345\211\215.json"
@@ -0,0 +1,170 @@
+{
+ "snapshot_id": "09880-HK-20260905-current",
+ "meta": {
+ "company": "优必选",
+ "code": "09880.HK",
+ "market": "香港联合交易所主板",
+ "as_of_date": "2026-09-05",
+ "currency": "HKD",
+ "report_period_end": "2026-06-30",
+ "latest_operating_info_date": "2026-08-28"
+ },
+ "market": {
+ "price": 85.65,
+ "price_type": "香港市场最新完整交易日未复权收盘价",
+ "price_timestamp": "2026-09-04T16:00:00+08:00",
+ "diluted_shares": 503401373,
+ "shares_date": "2026-08-31",
+ "platform_market_cap": 43116327697.45
+ },
+ "financials": {
+ "annual": {
+ "period_end": "2025-12-31",
+ "basis": "audited_converted_to_hkd_at_2026-09-04_central_parity",
+ "revenue": 2314417404.98,
+ "attributable_profit": -813332485.14,
+ "deduct_profit": -813332485.14,
+ "cfo": -906927062.85,
+ "capex": 473089823.96
+ },
+ "current_cumulative": {
+ "period_end": "2026-06-30",
+ "basis": "interim_results_unaudited_converted_to_hkd_at_2026-09-04_central_parity",
+ "revenue": 1467915057.02,
+ "attributable_profit": -360265099.82,
+ "deduct_profit": -360265099.82,
+ "cfo": null,
+ "capex": null
+ },
+ "prior_year_same_period": {
+ "period_end": "2025-06-30",
+ "basis": "reported_comparative_converted_to_hkd_at_2026-09-04_central_parity",
+ "revenue": 718799879.71,
+ "attributable_profit": -478438085.54,
+ "deduct_profit": -478438085.54,
+ "cfo": null,
+ "capex": null
+ }
+ },
+ "balance_sheet": {
+ "period_end": "2026-06-30",
+ "equity": 8057173425.25,
+ "cash_available": 2754184690.83,
+ "non_operating_financial_assets": 406706146.34,
+ "interest_bearing_debt": 1153508061.72,
+ "minority_interest": 1032184501.84
+ },
+ "normalization": {
+ "adjustments": [
+ {
+ "description": "港股法定披露无A股式扣非归母，以归母亏损作保守代理",
+ "amount": 0,
+ "basis": "2026H1归母亏损3.115亿元人民币；集团非GAAP净亏损3.388亿元人民币，未制造扣非指标"
+ }
+ ]
+ },
+ "valuation": {
+ "scenarios": [
+ {
+ "name": "悲观",
+ "role": "pessimistic",
+ "method": "pb",
+ "multiple_low": 1.5,
+ "multiple_high": 3.0,
+ "assumption": "规模交付放缓、应收和存货继续上升，现金消耗与并购整合压低估值倍数。"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "基准",
+ "role": "base",
+ "method": "pb",
+ "multiple_low": 3.0,
+ "multiple_high": 5.0,
+ "assumption": "全尺寸人形机器人收入继续增长、亏损收窄，但仍以未盈利平台公司估值并计入现金与并购风险。"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "乐观",
+ "role": "optimistic",
+ "method": "pb",
+ "multiple_low": 5.0,
+ "multiple_high": 7.0,
+ "assumption": "规模订单持续转化为收入和回款，毛利率维持改善，费用率下降并接近盈亏平衡。"
+ }
+ ],
+ "reverse_pe_multiples": [20, 25, 30, 40, 50, 60, 75, 100],
+ "exit_pe_multiples": [20, 25, 30, 40, 50, 60],
+ "holding_period": {
+ "years": 5,
+ "required_return": 0.1,
+ "cumulative_dividend_per_share": 0
+ }
+ },
+ "institutions": {
+ "coverage_status": "no_usable_forecasts",
+ "forecasts": []
+ },
+ "sources": [
+ {
+ "id": "SRC-HKEX-09880-H1-20260828",
+ "source_type": "archived_primary",
+ "title": "优必选截至2026年6月30日止六个月中期业绩公告",
+ "publish_date": "2026-08-28",
+ "period_end": "2026-06-30",
+ "url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0828/2026082801691.pdf",
+ "supports": ["financials.current_cumulative", "financials.prior_year_same_period", "balance_sheet.equity", "balance_sheet.cash_available", "balance_sheet.interest_bearing_debt", "analysis"],
+ "revision_status": "current"
+ },
+ {
+ "id": "SRC-HKEX-09880-ANNUAL-2025",
+ "source_type": "archived_primary",
+ "title": "优必选2025年度报告",
+ "publish_date": "2026-04-14",
+ "period_end": "2025-12-31",
+ "url": "https://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0414/2026041401168.pdf",
+ "supports": ["financials.annual"],
+ "revision_status": "current"
+ },
+ {
+ "id": "SRC-HKEX-09880-SHARES-202608",
+ "source_type": "archived_primary",
+ "title": "优必选截至2026年8月31日证券变动月报表",
+ "publish_date": "2026-09-03",
+ "period_end": "2026-08-31",
+ "url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/search/titlesearch.xhtml?category=0&market=SEHK&stockId=1000208870",
+ "supports": ["market.diluted_shares", "market.shares_date"],
+ "revision_status": "current"
+ },
+ {
+ "id": "SRC-EM-09880-20260904",
+ "source_type": "quote_provider",
+ "title": "东方财富优必选2026-09-04未复权日K与总股本",
+ "publish_date": "2026-09-05",
+ "period_end": "2026-09-04",
+ "url": "https://push2his.eastmoney.com/api/qt/stock/kline/get?secid=116.09880",
+ "supports": ["market.price", "market.platform_market_cap"],
+ "revision_status": "current"
+ },
+ {
+ "id": "SRC-FX-HKD-CNY-20260904",
+ "source_type": "professional_database",
+ "title": "2026-09-04人民币汇率中间价：1港元兑0.86458人民币",
+ "publish_date": "2026-09-04",
+ "period_end": "2026-09-04",
+ "url": "https://hzf.mofcom.gov.cn/article/zyfw/jrfw/jrfwywzn/jrfwwh/hlfxglzy/202609/7872.html",
+ "supports": ["financials", "balance_sheet", "valuation"],
+ "revision_status": "current"
+ }
+ ],
+ "analysis": {
+ "company_type": "高速增长但仍亏损的人形机器人平台公司，并表锋龙电气后业务边界扩大",
+ "primary_model": "PB情景为主，PS、收入结构、亏损收窄、现金消耗和并购整合交叉验证；负利润不使用PE",
+ "cross_checks": ["2026H1收入与毛利率", "PB", "前瞻PS", "现金和债务", "应收与存货", "客户集中度"],
+ "profit_sources": ["2026H1收入12.69亿元人民币，同比增长104%；其中全尺寸人形机器人收入5.90亿元，占46.5%。"],
+ "profit_source_quality": ["毛利率升至44.7%，但归母仍亏损3.11亿元；单一客户贡献24%收入，应收账款和存货均明显增加。"],
+ "risks": ["仍未实现可持续盈利，估值依赖远期商业化。", "现金从2025年末48.88亿元降至2026H1的23.81亿元，主要受并购付款影响。", "信用减值损失升至0.91亿元，应收和存货增长带来回款及交付风险。", "锋龙电气并表改变收入结构并增加商誉和整合复杂度。", "客户集中度提高，单一大客户收入占24%。"],
+ "upgrade_triggers": ["全尺寸机器人订单持续转化为收入、回款和经营现金流。", "毛利率维持且费用率下降，归母亏损继续快速收窄。"],
+ "downgrade_triggers": ["应收或存货继续快于收入增长。", "现金消耗超预期、并购整合不及预期或需要再次大额股权融资。"],
+ "fx_rate_cny_per_hkd": 0.86458,
+ "executive_conclusion": "85.65港元高于基准合理区间约48.02—80.03港元、但仍在乐观区间内，判断为偏贵；收入与毛利率改善真实，但价格已要求规模交付、回款和亏损收窄同时兑现。",
+ "information_cutoff": "2026-09-05T23:30:00+08:00"
+ }
+}
--
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