From 129e0ebd2ca859b3463ad2c31ae335c72bace22d Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Cai <cai@nbcai.cc>
Date: Sat, 05 Sep 2026 23:02:28 +0800
Subject: [PATCH] 刷新2026H1股票估值覆盖与半导体三子链
---
ana-data/result/股票估值/当前估值/09880.HK/calculation/valuation_results.json | 225 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
1 files changed, 225 insertions(+), 0 deletions(-)
diff --git "a/ana-data/result/\350\202\241\347\245\250\344\274\260\345\200\274/\345\275\223\345\211\215\344\274\260\345\200\274/09880.HK/calculation/valuation_results.json" "b/ana-data/result/\350\202\241\347\245\250\344\274\260\345\200\274/\345\275\223\345\211\215\344\274\260\345\200\274/09880.HK/calculation/valuation_results.json"
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..2ba2d83
--- /dev/null
+++ "b/ana-data/result/\350\202\241\347\245\250\344\274\260\345\200\274/\345\275\223\345\211\215\344\274\260\345\200\274/09880.HK/calculation/valuation_results.json"
@@ -0,0 +1,225 @@
+{
+ "conclusion": {
+ "base_midpoint": "64.02186293004012128508835035",
+ "price_label": "当前价格高于基准合理区间",
+ "price_position": "ABOVE_BASE_RANGE",
+ "safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-0.3378242381605487088618627848"
+ },
+ "engine_version": "1.0.0",
+ "holding_period": {
+ "cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
+ "required_exit_price": "137.9401815",
+ "required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
+ {
+ "exit_pe": "20",
+ "required_profit": "3471963837.948459975"
+ },
+ {
+ "exit_pe": "25",
+ "required_profit": "2777571070.35876798"
+ },
+ {
+ "exit_pe": "30",
+ "required_profit": "2314642558.63230665"
+ },
+ {
+ "exit_pe": "40",
+ "required_profit": "1735981918.9742299875"
+ },
+ {
+ "exit_pe": "50",
+ "required_profit": "1388785535.17938399"
+ },
+ {
+ "exit_pe": "60",
+ "required_profit": "1157321279.316153325"
+ }
+ ],
+ "required_return": "0.1",
+ "years": 5
+ },
+ "institutions": {
+ "coverage_status": "no_usable_forecasts",
+ "detail": [],
+ "summary": {}
+ },
+ "meta": {
+ "as_of_date": "2026-09-05",
+ "code": "09880.HK",
+ "company": "优必选",
+ "currency": "HKD",
+ "latest_operating_info_date": "2026-08-28",
+ "market": "香港联合交易所主板",
+ "report_period_end": "2026-06-30"
+ },
+ "metrics": {
+ "annual_cash_conversion": null,
+ "annual_fcf": "-1380016886.81",
+ "book_value_per_share": "16.00546573251003032127208759",
+ "current_fcf": null,
+ "deduct_pe": null,
+ "diluted_shares": "503401373",
+ "enterprise_value": "42141129323.84",
+ "market_cap": "43116327597.45",
+ "normalized_eps": "-1.380924917381979409102644621",
+ "normalized_pe": null,
+ "normalized_profit": "-695159499.42",
+ "pb": "5.351296952642194835447451138",
+ "price": "85.65",
+ "ps": "14.07405550269043095955549234",
+ "reported_pe": null,
+ "ttm_attributable_profit": "-695159499.42",
+ "ttm_deduct_profit": "-695159499.42",
+ "ttm_eps": "-1.380924917381979409102644621",
+ "ttm_revenue": "3063532582.29"
+ },
+ "normalization_adjustments": [
+ {
+ "amount": "0",
+ "basis": "2026H1归母亏损3.115亿元人民币；集团非GAAP净亏损3.388亿元人民币，未制造扣非指标",
+ "description": "港股法定披露无A股式扣非归母，以归母亏损作保守代理"
+ }
+ ],
+ "qa": {
+ "error_count": 0,
+ "info_count": 1,
+ "issues": [
+ {
+ "action": "补充法定披露、行情接口或机构预测汇总页来源。",
+ "field": "institutions",
+ "issue_id": "QA-CORE-SOURCE-MISSING",
+ "message": "核心字段没有由注册表中允许承载核心数字的来源支持。",
+ "recalc_scope": "institutions",
+ "severity": "WARNING"
+ },
+ {
+ "action": "使用正常化情景、PB 或反向估值。",
+ "field": "metrics.ttm_attributable_profit",
+ "issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-TTM-PROFIT",
+ "message": "TTM 归母利润不为正，报告 PE 不适用。",
+ "recalc_scope": "PE 模块",
+ "severity": "WARNING"
+ },
+ {
+ "action": "检查主营盈利恢复条件。",
+ "field": "metrics.ttm_deduct_profit",
+ "issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-TTM-DEDUCT",
+ "message": "TTM 扣非利润不为正，扣非 PE 不适用。",
+ "recalc_scope": "扣非 PE 模块",
+ "severity": "WARNING"
+ },
+ {
+ "action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
+ "field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
+ "issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
+ "message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
+ "recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
+ "severity": "WARNING"
+ },
+ {
+ "action": "不得以公司业绩预告或自有情景冒充机构预期。",
+ "field": "institutions",
+ "issue_id": "QA-INSTITUTION-NONE",
+ "message": "估值日没有可用机构盈利预测，已明确记录为空。",
+ "recalc_scope": "机构预期模块",
+ "severity": "INFO"
+ }
+ ],
+ "status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
+ "warning_count": 4
+ },
+ "reverse_pe": [
+ {
+ "implied_eps": "4.2825",
+ "implied_margin": "0.7037027751345215479777746170",
+ "implied_profit": "2155816379.8725",
+ "pe": "20"
+ },
+ {
+ "implied_eps": "3.426",
+ "implied_margin": "0.5629622201076172383822196936",
+ "implied_profit": "1724653103.898",
+ "pe": "25"
+ },
+ {
+ "implied_eps": "2.855",
+ "implied_margin": "0.4691351834230143653185164113",
+ "implied_profit": "1437210919.915",
+ "pe": "30"
+ },
+ {
+ "implied_eps": "2.14125",
+ "implied_margin": "0.3518513875672607739888873085",
+ "implied_profit": "1077908189.93625",
+ "pe": "40"
+ },
+ {
+ "implied_eps": "1.713",
+ "implied_margin": "0.2814811100538086191911098468",
+ "implied_profit": "862326551.949",
+ "pe": "50"
+ },
+ {
+ "implied_eps": "1.4275",
+ "implied_margin": "0.2345675917115071826592582057",
+ "implied_profit": "718605459.9575",
+ "pe": "60"
+ },
+ {
+ "implied_eps": "1.142",
+ "implied_margin": "0.1876540733692057461274065645",
+ "implied_profit": "574884367.966",
+ "pe": "75"
+ },
+ {
+ "implied_eps": "0.8565",
+ "implied_margin": "0.1407405550269043095955549234",
+ "implied_profit": "431163275.9745",
+ "pe": "100"
+ }
+ ],
+ "scenarios": [
+ {
+ "assumption": "规模交付放缓、应收和存货继续上升，现金消耗与并购整合压低估值倍数。",
+ "cagr_high": "-0.10929797297712485",
+ "cagr_low": "-0.22459884864623647",
+ "equity_value_high": "24171520275.750",
+ "equity_value_low": "12085760137.875",
+ "method": "pb",
+ "name": "悲观",
+ "price_high": "48.01639719753009096381626277",
+ "price_low": "24.00819859876504548190813139",
+ "role": "pessimistic",
+ "upside_to_high": "-0.4393882405425558556472123436",
+ "upside_to_low": "-0.7196941202712779278236061717"
+ },
+ {
+ "assumption": "全尺寸人形机器人收入继续增长、亏损收窄，但仍以未盈利平台公司估值并计入现金与并购风险。",
+ "cagr_high": "-0.013488413006434552",
+ "cagr_low": "-0.10929797297712485",
+ "equity_value_high": "40285867126.250",
+ "equity_value_low": "24171520275.750",
+ "method": "pb",
+ "name": "基准",
+ "price_high": "80.02732866255015160636043796",
+ "price_low": "48.01639719753009096381626277",
+ "role": "base",
+ "upside_to_high": "-0.0656470675709264260786872392",
+ "upside_to_low": "-0.4393882405425558556472123436"
+ },
+ {
+ "assumption": "规模订单持续转化为收入和回款，毛利率维持改善，费用率下降并接近盈亏平衡。",
+ "cagr_high": "0.055183029221321345",
+ "cagr_low": "-0.013488413006434552",
+ "equity_value_high": "56400213976.750",
+ "equity_value_low": "40285867126.250",
+ "method": "pb",
+ "name": "乐观",
+ "price_high": "112.0382601275702122489046131",
+ "price_low": "80.02732866255015160636043796",
+ "role": "optimistic",
+ "upside_to_high": "0.308094105400703003489837865",
+ "upside_to_low": "-0.0656470675709264260786872392"
+ }
+ ]
+}
--
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