From 129e0ebd2ca859b3463ad2c31ae335c72bace22d Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Cai <cai@nbcai.cc>
Date: Sat, 05 Sep 2026 23:02:28 +0800
Subject: [PATCH] 刷新2026H1股票估值覆盖与半导体三子链
---
ana-data/result/股票估值/当前估值/688519.SH/南亚新材估值快照_当前.json | 164 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
1 files changed, 164 insertions(+), 0 deletions(-)
diff --git "a/ana-data/result/\350\202\241\347\245\250\344\274\260\345\200\274/\345\275\223\345\211\215\344\274\260\345\200\274/688519.SH/\345\215\227\344\272\232\346\226\260\346\235\220\344\274\260\345\200\274\345\277\253\347\205\247_\345\275\223\345\211\215.json" "b/ana-data/result/\350\202\241\347\245\250\344\274\260\345\200\274/\345\275\223\345\211\215\344\274\260\345\200\274/688519.SH/\345\215\227\344\272\232\346\226\260\346\235\220\344\274\260\345\200\274\345\277\253\347\205\247_\345\275\223\345\211\215.json"
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..a060f38
--- /dev/null
+++ "b/ana-data/result/\350\202\241\347\245\250\344\274\260\345\200\274/\345\275\223\345\211\215\344\274\260\345\200\274/688519.SH/\345\215\227\344\272\232\346\226\260\346\235\220\344\274\260\345\200\274\345\277\253\347\205\247_\345\275\223\345\211\215.json"
@@ -0,0 +1,164 @@
+{
+ "snapshot_id": "688519-SH-20260905-current",
+ "meta": {
+ "company": "南亚新材",
+ "code": "688519.SH",
+ "market": "上交所科创板",
+ "as_of_date": "2026-09-05",
+ "currency": "CNY",
+ "report_period_end": "2026-06-30",
+ "latest_operating_info_date": "2026-08-29"
+ },
+ "market": {
+ "price": 267.14,
+ "price_type": "前复权完整交易日收盘价（与未复权报价同值核验）",
+ "price_timestamp": "2026-09-04T15:00:00+08:00",
+ "diluted_shares": 235180442,
+ "shares_date": "2026-09-05",
+ "platform_market_cap": 62826103275.88
+ },
+ "financials": {
+ "annual": {
+ "period_end": "2025-12-31",
+ "basis": "audited",
+ "revenue": 5227828810.43,
+ "attributable_profit": 240327620.48,
+ "deduct_profit": 218017399.69,
+ "cfo": -83184590.91,
+ "capex": 233398291.47
+ },
+ "current_cumulative": {
+ "period_end": "2026-06-30",
+ "basis": "interim_report_unaudited",
+ "revenue": 4223655477.69,
+ "attributable_profit": 461065617.47,
+ "deduct_profit": 452920222.37,
+ "cfo": -23636325.28,
+ "capex": 215279014.54
+ },
+ "prior_year_same_period": {
+ "period_end": "2025-06-30",
+ "basis": "reported_comparative",
+ "revenue": 2305055409.51,
+ "attributable_profit": 87190150.81,
+ "deduct_profit": 81202292.54,
+ "cfo": -70241508.13,
+ "capex": 103727313.07
+ }
+ },
+ "balance_sheet": {
+ "period_end": "2026-06-30",
+ "equity": 3273743271.85,
+ "cash_available": 417575689.14,
+ "non_operating_financial_assets": 0,
+ "interest_bearing_debt": 964787663.23,
+ "minority_interest": 0
+ },
+ "normalization": {
+ "adjustments": [
+ {
+ "description": "以最新TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理",
+ "amount": -24467757.62,
+ "basis": "2025-12-31+2026-06-30-2025-06-30"
+ }
+ ]
+ },
+ "valuation": {
+ "scenarios": [
+ {
+ "name": "悲观",
+ "role": "pessimistic",
+ "method": "pe",
+ "profit_low": 350000000,
+ "profit_high": 550000000,
+ "multiple_low": 12,
+ "multiple_high": 20,
+ "assumption": "覆铜板景气回落、产品价格与稼动率承压，利润向周期中枢回归。"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "基准",
+ "role": "base",
+ "method": "pe",
+ "profit_low": 550000000,
+ "profit_high": 850000000,
+ "multiple_low": 20,
+ "multiple_high": 35,
+ "assumption": "H1高增长部分延续，但按周期材料公司折价，未把AI覆铜板渗透率全部提前资本化。"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "乐观",
+ "role": "optimistic",
+ "method": "pe",
+ "profit_low": 850000000,
+ "profit_high": 1100000000,
+ "multiple_low": 35,
+ "multiple_high": 50,
+ "assumption": "高端覆铜板放量、良率和价格同时兑现，现金流随利润改善。"
+ }
+ ],
+ "reverse_pe_multiples": [10, 12, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 50, 60, 80, 100],
+ "exit_pe_multiples": [12, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40],
+ "holding_period": {
+ "years": 5,
+ "required_return": 0.1,
+ "cumulative_dividend_per_share": 0
+ }
+ },
+ "institutions": {
+ "coverage_status": "no_usable_forecasts",
+ "forecasts": []
+ },
+ "sources": [
+ {
+ "id": "SRC-CNINFO-688519-H1-20260829",
+ "source_type": "cninfo",
+ "title": "南亚新材2026年半年度报告",
+ "publish_date": "2026-08-29",
+ "period_end": "2026-06-30",
+ "url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-08-29/1225528689.PDF",
+ "supports": ["financials.current_cumulative", "financials.prior_year_same_period", "balance_sheet.equity"],
+ "revision_status": "current"
+ },
+ {
+ "id": "SRC-EM-FINANCE-688519-20260905",
+ "source_type": "financial_mirror",
+ "title": "东方财富结构化财务与法定报告勾稽",
+ "publish_date": "2026-08-29",
+ "period_end": "2026-06-30",
+ "url": "https://datacenter-web.eastmoney.com/api/data/v1/get",
+ "supports": ["financials.annual", "financials.current_cumulative", "financials.prior_year_same_period", "balance_sheet.equity"],
+ "revision_status": "current"
+ },
+ {
+ "id": "SRC-MARKET-688519-20260905",
+ "source_type": "quote_provider",
+ "title": "trading_xuntou前复权收盘与东方财富当前总股本勾稽",
+ "publish_date": "2026-09-05",
+ "period_end": "2026-09-04",
+ "url": "https://push2.eastmoney.com/api/qt/stock/get",
+ "supports": ["market.price", "market.diluted_shares", "market.platform_market_cap"],
+ "revision_status": "current"
+ },
+ {
+ "id": "SRC-NO-CONSENSUS-688519-20260905",
+ "source_type": "institution_aggregator",
+ "title": "固定机构预测明细未形成可用样本",
+ "publish_date": "2026-09-05",
+ "period_end": "2026-09-05",
+ "url": "https://datacenter-web.eastmoney.com/api/data/v1/get",
+ "supports": ["institutions"],
+ "revision_status": "current"
+ }
+ ],
+ "analysis": {
+ "company_type": "覆铜板与半固化片材料公司",
+ "primary_model": "TTM扣非PE三情景，结合周期中枢与同行材料估值交叉验证",
+ "cross_checks": ["TTM扣非PE", "PB", "PS", "经营现金流", "同行覆铜板与电子材料估值"],
+ "profit_sources": ["主要利润来自覆铜板及半固化片，AI服务器高频高速材料属于增长分支。"],
+ "profit_source_quality": ["2026H1收入和扣非利润显著增长，但经营现金流仍为负，利润兑现尚未完整转化为现金。"],
+ "risks": ["覆铜板具明显周期性，价格、铜价、稼动率与产品结构变化会放大利润波动。", "当前估值已提前计入高端材料渗透与份额提升，若订单、良率或现金回收不及预期将面临压缩。"],
+ "upgrade_triggers": ["高端覆铜板收入和毛利可验证放量，经营现金流连续转正。"],
+ "downgrade_triggers": ["H2单季扣非利润回落、应收存货扩张或高端产品认证与放量延期。"],
+ "information_cutoff": "2026-09-05T22:14:05+08:00"
+ }
+}
--
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