From 96f271048f97056125ac0b6aeb9ef99a18d871a8 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Cai <cai@nbcai.cc>
Date: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 01:18:21 +0800
Subject: [PATCH] fix multi valuation inputs and quarantine batch anomalies
---
ana-data/result/股票估值/20260825_industry_gap_002407_valuation/多氟多估值快照_20260825.json | 114 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++----------------------
1 files changed, 70 insertions(+), 44 deletions(-)
diff --git "a/ana-data/result/\350\202\241\347\245\250\344\274\260\345\200\274/20260825_industry_gap_002407_valuation/\345\244\232\346\260\237\345\244\232\344\274\260\345\200\274\345\277\253\347\205\247_20260825.json" "b/ana-data/result/\350\202\241\347\245\250\344\274\260\345\200\274/20260825_industry_gap_002407_valuation/\345\244\232\346\260\237\345\244\232\344\274\260\345\200\274\345\277\253\347\205\247_20260825.json"
index 3c203d2..239e51d 100644
--- "a/ana-data/result/\350\202\241\347\245\250\344\274\260\345\200\274/20260825_industry_gap_002407_valuation/\345\244\232\346\260\237\345\244\232\344\274\260\345\200\274\345\277\253\347\205\247_20260825.json"
+++ "b/ana-data/result/\350\202\241\347\245\250\344\274\260\345\200\274/20260825_industry_gap_002407_valuation/\345\244\232\346\260\237\345\244\232\344\274\260\345\200\274\345\277\253\347\205\247_20260825.json"
@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
{
- "snapshot_id": "SNAPSHOT-002407-20260825-INDUSTRY-GAP-V1",
+ "snapshot_id": "SNAPSHOT-002407-20260825-INDUSTRY-GAP-CORRECTED",
"meta": {
"company": "多氟多",
"code": "002407.SZ",
@@ -47,7 +47,7 @@
}
},
"balance_sheet": {
- "cash_available": 6336160836.08,
+ "cash_available": 4218865857.51,
"equity": 8682179790.33,
"interest_bearing_debt": 9545488917.42,
"minority_interest": 2617980173.69,
@@ -69,31 +69,31 @@
"name": "悲观",
"role": "pessimistic",
"method": "pe",
- "profit_low": 1125480187.170222,
- "profit_high": 1597455749.531928,
- "multiple_low": 20,
- "multiple_high": 30,
- "assumption": "需求、价格、订单或验收低于预期，利润下修且估值回归行业低位。"
+ "profit_low": 900000000.0,
+ "profit_high": 1100000000.0,
+ "multiple_low": 18.5,
+ "multiple_high": 19.5,
+ "assumption": "六氟磷酸锂价格与价差继续回落，电池业务低毛利拖累，归一化NTM扣非利润降至9至11亿元。"
},
{
"name": "基准",
"role": "base",
"method": "pe",
- "profit_low": 1815290624.4681,
- "profit_high": 2746208893.4261,
- "multiple_low": 30,
- "multiple_high": 45,
- "assumption": "以TTM扣非利润与2家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按业务质量和周期属性定价。"
+ "profit_low": 1400000000.0,
+ "profit_high": 1700000000.0,
+ "multiple_low": 18.5,
+ "multiple_high": 20.0,
+ "assumption": "以半年报后华安证券2026年13.36亿元、2027年19.64亿元归母预测为外部锚，结合TTM扣非5.99亿元和二季度环比降速，采用14至17亿元归一化NTM扣非利润。"
},
{
"name": "乐观",
"role": "optimistic",
"method": "pe",
- "profit_low": 3020829782.76871,
- "profit_high": 3789768272.9280176,
- "multiple_low": 45,
- "multiple_high": 65,
- "assumption": "订单、产品结构、良率或规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。"
+ "profit_low": 2200000000.0,
+ "profit_high": 2600000000.0,
+ "multiple_low": 18.5,
+ "multiple_high": 20.0,
+ "assumption": "六氟磷酸锂景气和新能源电池盈利超预期，电子信息材料逐步贡献增量；为避免周期利润与估值倍数双重上调，倍数不高于20倍。"
}
],
"reverse_pe_multiples": [
@@ -136,27 +136,51 @@
"coverage_status": "available",
"forecasts": [
{
- "institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池2家）",
- "report_date": "2026-08-25",
+ "institution": "华安证券",
+ "report_date": "2026-08-20",
"include": true,
- "core_assumption": "C1汇总快照缺逐家报告日期；仅作市场预期锚，不替代法定利润。",
- "source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260825",
+ "core_assumption": "半年报后因二季度六氟磷酸锂价格和价差收窄，下调2026至2028年盈利预测。",
+ "source_id": "SRC-THS-FORECAST-DETAIL-20260825",
"estimates": {
"2026": {
- "eps": 1.955,
- "profit": 2327295672.395,
+ "eps": 1.12,
+ "profit": 1336000000.0,
"mark": "E"
},
"2027": {
- "eps": 2.39,
- "profit": 2845133839.9100003,
+ "eps": 1.65,
+ "profit": 1964000000.0,
"mark": "E"
},
"2028": {
- "eps": 3.095,
- "profit": 3684388801.0550003,
+ "eps": 2.49,
+ "profit": 2961000000.0,
"mark": "E"
}
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "institution": "中原证券",
+ "report_date": "2026-04-28",
+ "include": true,
+ "core_assumption": "发布早于2026年半年报，仅保留为公告前市场预期差证据，不进入当前一致预期。",
+ "source_id": "SRC-THS-FORECAST-DETAIL-20260825",
+ "estimates": {
+ "2026": {"eps": 1.80, "profit": 2137000000.0, "mark": "E"},
+ "2027": {"eps": 2.26, "profit": 2694000000.0, "mark": "E"},
+ "2028": {"eps": 3.19, "profit": 3794000000.0, "mark": "E"}
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "institution": "光大证券",
+ "report_date": "2026-04-27",
+ "include": true,
+ "core_assumption": "发布早于2026年半年报，仅保留为公告前市场预期差证据，不进入当前一致预期。",
+ "source_id": "SRC-THS-FORECAST-DETAIL-20260825",
+ "estimates": {
+ "2026": {"eps": 2.11, "profit": 2506000000.0, "mark": "E"},
+ "2027": {"eps": 2.52, "profit": 2998000000.0, "mark": "E"},
+ "2028": {"eps": 3.00, "profit": 3570000000.0, "mark": "E"}
}
}
]
@@ -233,12 +257,12 @@
"revision_status": "current"
},
{
- "id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260825",
+ "id": "SRC-THS-FORECAST-DETAIL-20260825",
"source_type": "institution_aggregator",
- "title": "东方财富盈利预测汇总",
+ "title": "同花顺盈利预测机构明细",
"publish_date": "2026-08-25",
"period_end": "2026-08-25",
- "url": "https://datacenter-web.eastmoney.com/api/data/v1/get?reportName=RPT_WEB_RESPREDICT",
+ "url": "https://basic.10jqka.com.cn/176/002407/worth.html",
"supports": [
"institutions"
],
@@ -246,39 +270,41 @@
}
],
"analysis": {
- "company_type": "集成电路设计与芯片产品",
- "primary_model": "前瞻PE情景；亏损或强周期时改用PB，TTM扣非、现金流和反向估值交叉验证",
+ "company_type": "氟化工与新能源材料多业务周期公司",
+ "primary_model": "归一化NTM扣非利润PE情景；PB/ROE、现金流、分部收入和反向利润交叉验证",
"cross_checks": [
"PB/ROE",
- "机构一致预期",
+ "半年报后机构预测明细",
"经营现金流与资本开支",
"反向利润",
"前复权量价"
],
"profit_sources": [
- "核心利润来自集成电路设计与芯片产品；主要驱动为新品放量、客户导入、产品结构、研发效率和行业景气。",
- "利润还受客户验收、研发、折旧、补助、库存和产品结构影响，不能只按收入线性外推。"
+ "2026年上半年收入主要来自新能源材料、新能源电池和氟基新材料；电子信息材料收入2.65亿元、占比约3.77%，不能按半导体整机或芯片设计公司给全公司估值。",
+ "核心利润受六氟磷酸锂价格与价差、原材料成本、电池业务毛利率、产能利用率和周期波动影响；半导体材料是成长选项而非当前主要利润锚。"
],
"profit_source_quality": [
"TTM归母6.73亿元，TTM扣非5.99亿元；主模型使用扣非口径。",
- "TTM经营现金流5.09亿元，简化自由现金流-4.50亿元。"
+ "TTM经营现金流5.09亿元，简化自由现金流-4.50亿元。",
+ "期末货币资金63.36亿元中约21.17亿元受限，企业价值只扣除约42.19亿元可用现金。"
],
"risks": [
- "产品迭代、客户集中、行业周期与高估值",
- "机构汇总不是法定事实，且缺逐家报告日期。",
- "当前行业主题交易可能令估值倍数先于利润变化。"
+ "六氟磷酸锂价格和价差波动可能令阶段性利润快速回落。",
+ "新能源电池业务上半年毛利率仅11.91%，收入增长不等于利润同比例增长。",
+ "电子信息材料业务收入占比约3.77%，半导体题材不能支撑全公司采用高倍半导体PE。",
+ "二季度归母利润1.36亿元、环比一季度下降约63.7%，半年报前预测存在明显滞后。"
],
"upgrade_triggers": [
"最新累计扣非利润达到或超过基准路径且经营现金流同步改善。",
- "订单、客户认证或产能利用率提升转化为可持续利润。"
+ "六氟磷酸锂价差、新能源电池毛利率或电子信息材料利润贡献连续两个季度高于基准路径。"
],
"downgrade_triggers": [
"最新累计扣非利润低于基准下限，或现金流与利润明显背离。",
- "股本摊薄、存货应收恶化、客户流失或估值中枢明显下移。"
+ "六氟磷酸锂价格、价差和新能源电池毛利率低于悲观路径，或经营现金流与利润持续背离。"
],
- "executive_conclusion": "33.88元相对基准合理区间45.75至103.81元，判断为偏低；区间为条件化估值，不是目标价承诺。",
- "consensus_org_count": 2,
- "consensus_coverage_note": "公开C1汇总缺逐家日期；只作市场预期锚",
+ "executive_conclusion": "33.88元高于基准合理区间21.76至28.56元、但未超过乐观上沿43.68元，判断为偏贵并触发泡沫-中；区间为条件化估值，不是目标价承诺。",
+ "consensus_org_count": 3,
+ "consensus_coverage_note": "三家明细中仅华安证券2026-08-20报告晚于半年报；中原、光大两份半年报前预测标记滞后并排除",
"industry_research_membership": [
"半导体"
],
--
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