{ "conclusion": { "base_midpoint": "86.6356055236940153382312293", "price_label": "当前价格高于乐观情景上限", "price_position": "ABOVE_OPTIMISTIC_RANGE", "safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-2.083489731331533742331288343" }, "engine_version": "1.0.0", "holding_period": { "cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0", "required_exit_price": "430.2316414", "required_profit_by_exit_pe": [ { "exit_pe": "12", "required_profit": "8431838965.569791566666666667" }, { "exit_pe": "15", "required_profit": "6745471172.455833253333333333" }, { "exit_pe": "20", "required_profit": "5059103379.34187494" }, { "exit_pe": "25", "required_profit": "4047282703.473499952" }, { "exit_pe": "30", "required_profit": "3372735586.227916626666666667" }, { "exit_pe": "35", "required_profit": "2890916216.76678568" }, { "exit_pe": "40", "required_profit": "2529551689.67093747" } ], "required_return": "0.1", "years": 5 }, "institutions": { "coverage_status": "no_usable_forecasts", "detail": [], "summary": {} }, "meta": { "as_of_date": "2026-09-05", "code": "688519.SH", "company": "南亚新材", "currency": "CNY", "latest_operating_info_date": "2026-08-29", "market": "上交所科创板", "report_period_end": "2026-06-30" }, "metrics": { "annual_cash_conversion": "-0.3461299651860972813306822785", "annual_fcf": "-316582882.38", "book_value_per_share": "13.92013402139111550781080682", "current_fcf": "-238915339.82", "deduct_pe": "106.5327107450315061802641584", "diluted_shares": "235180442", "enterprise_value": "63373315249.97", "market_cap": "62826103275.88", "normalized_eps": "2.507586619468977781749385436", "normalized_pe": "106.5327107450315061802641584", "normalized_profit": "589735329.52", "pb": "19.19090718447718159302003362", "price": "267.14", "ps": "8.791258451325950821935986529", "reported_pe": "102.2888106414866757421423794", "ttm_attributable_profit": "614203087.14", "ttm_deduct_profit": "589735329.52", "ttm_eps": "2.611624852461158313496153732", "ttm_revenue": "7146428878.61" }, "normalization_adjustments": [ { "amount": "-24467757.62", "basis": "2025-12-31+2026-06-30-2025-06-30", "description": "以最新TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理" } ], "qa": { "error_count": 0, "info_count": 1, "issues": [ { "action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。", "field": "metrics.annual_fcf", "issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF", "message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。", "recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证", "severity": "WARNING" }, { "action": "不得以公司业绩预告或自有情景冒充机构预期。", "field": "institutions", "issue_id": "QA-INSTITUTION-NONE", "message": "估值日没有可用机构盈利预测,已明确记录为空。", "recalc_scope": "机构预期模块", "severity": "INFO" } ], "status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS", "warning_count": 1 }, "reverse_pe": [ { "implied_eps": "26.714", "implied_margin": "0.8791258451325950821935986529", "implied_profit": "6282610327.588", "pe": "10" }, { "implied_eps": "22.26166666666666666666666667", "implied_margin": "0.7326048709438292351613322107", "implied_profit": "5235508606.323333333333333333", "pe": "12" }, { "implied_eps": "17.80933333333333333333333333", "implied_margin": "0.5860838967550633881290657686", "implied_profit": "4188406885.058666666666666667", "pe": "15" }, { "implied_eps": "13.357", "implied_margin": "0.4395629225662975410967993265", "implied_profit": "3141305163.794", "pe": "20" }, { "implied_eps": "10.6856", "implied_margin": "0.3516503380530380328774394612", "implied_profit": "2513044131.0352", "pe": "25" }, { "implied_eps": "8.904666666666666666666666667", "implied_margin": "0.2930419483775316940645328843", "implied_profit": "2094203442.529333333333333333", "pe": "30" }, { "implied_eps": "7.632571428571428571428571429", "implied_margin": "0.2511788128950271663410281865", "implied_profit": "1795031522.168", "pe": "35" }, { "implied_eps": "6.6785", "implied_margin": "0.2197814612831487705483996632", "implied_profit": "1570652581.897", "pe": "40" }, { "implied_eps": "5.3428", "implied_margin": "0.1758251690265190164387197306", "implied_profit": "1256522065.5176", "pe": "50" }, { "implied_eps": "4.452333333333333333333333333", "implied_margin": "0.1465209741887658470322664422", "implied_profit": "1047101721.264666666666666667", "pe": "60" }, { "implied_eps": "3.33925", "implied_margin": "0.1098907306415743852741998316", "implied_profit": "785326290.9485", "pe": "80" }, { "implied_eps": "2.6714", "implied_margin": "0.08791258451325950821935986529", "implied_profit": "628261032.7588", "pe": "100" } ], "scenarios": [ { "assumption": "覆铜板景气回落、产品价格与稼动率承压,利润向周期中枢回归。", "cagr_high": "-0.2942506086852269", "cagr_low": "-0.41786751739685735", "equity_value_high": "11000000000", "equity_value_low": "4200000000", "method": "pe", "name": "悲观", "price_high": "46.77259684714768926235796427", "price_low": "17.85862788709275408199122272", "role": "pessimistic", "upside_to_high": "-0.8249135402891828656795763859", "upside_to_low": "-0.9331488062922334578049291655" }, { "assumption": "H1高增长部分延续,但按周期材料公司折价,未把AI覆铜板渗透率全部提前资本化。", "cagr_high": "-0.13886871153186853", "cagr_low": "-0.2942506086852269", "equity_value_high": "29750000000", "equity_value_low": "11000000000", "method": "pe", "name": "基准", "price_high": "126.4986142002403414141044943", "price_low": "46.77259684714768926235796427", "role": "base", "upside_to_high": "-0.5264707112366536594515815891", "upside_to_low": "-0.8249135402891828656795763859" }, { "assumption": "高端覆铜板放量、良率和价格同时兑现,现金流随利润改善。", "cagr_high": "-0.026256631244809592", "cagr_low": "-0.13886871153186853", "equity_value_high": "55000000000", "equity_value_low": "29750000000", "method": "pe", "name": "乐观", "price_high": "233.8629842357384463117898214", "price_low": "126.4986142002403414141044943", "role": "optimistic", "upside_to_high": "-0.1245677014459143283978819293", "upside_to_low": "-0.5264707112366536594515815891" } ] }