{ "snapshot_id": "SNAPSHOT-001270-20260801-V1", "meta": { "company": "铖昌科技", "code": "001270.SZ", "market": "深圳证券交易所", "as_of_date": "2026-08-01", "currency": "CNY", "report_period_end": "2026-03-31", "latest_operating_info_date": "2026-05-19" }, "market": { "price": 92.56, "price_type": "收盘价", "price_timestamp": "2026-07-31T15:00:00+08:00", "diluted_shares": 206114901, "shares_date": "2026-07-31", "platform_market_cap": 19077995236.56 }, "financials": { "annual": { "period_end": "2025-12-31", "basis": "audited", "revenue": 404622960.22, "attributable_profit": 117109847.25, "deduct_profit": 103336666.71, "cfo": -47363636.15, "capex": 13534367.31 }, "current_cumulative": { "period_end": "2026-03-31", "basis": "quarterly_report_unaudited", "revenue": 103897665.11, "attributable_profit": 44724149.72, "deduct_profit": 43664243.73, "cfo": -20955753.64, "capex": 5092242.72 }, "prior_year_same_period": { "period_end": "2025-03-31", "basis": "reported_comparative", "revenue": 92008850.60, "attributable_profit": 29815883.20, "deduct_profit": 28825992.10, "cfo": -87522482.55, "capex": 2365311.89 } }, "balance_sheet": { "period_end": "2026-03-31", "equity": 1560369145.27, "cash_available": 179539263.25, "non_operating_financial_assets": 95338761.64, "interest_bearing_debt": 825466.20, "minority_interest": 0 }, "normalization": { "adjustments": [ { "name": "以TTM扣非归母净利润替代TTM报告归母净利润", "description": "剔除TTM非经常性损益，以扣非归母净利润作为归一化利润。", "amount": -13843195.43, "reason": "剔除政府补助、理财收益、单项减值转回等非经常性损益；股份支付作为真实成本保留。", "source_id": "SRC-ANNUAL-2025" } ] }, "valuation": { "scenarios": [ { "name": "悲观", "role": "pessimistic", "method": "pe", "profit_low": 120000000, "profit_high": 150000000, "multiple_low": 30, "multiple_high": 40, "assumption": "2026年交付增速低于市场预期，利润为1.20亿至1.50亿元；客户集中、回款弱使估值回落至30至40倍。" }, { "name": "基准", "role": "base", "method": "pe", "profit_low": 167000000, "profit_high": 173000000, "multiple_low": 40, "multiple_high": 50, "assumption": "2026年利润落在机构预测区间1.67亿至1.73亿元；高增长与稀缺性获得40至50倍前瞻PE，但对回款和集中度留折价。" }, { "name": "乐观", "role": "optimistic", "method": "pe", "profit_low": 200000000, "profit_high": 230000000, "multiple_low": 50, "multiple_high": 60, "assumption": "2026年利润显著超出一致预期至2.00亿至2.30亿元，交付、毛利和回款同步改善，并维持50至60倍高估值。" } ], "reverse_pe_multiples": [30, 40, 50, 60, 80, 100], "exit_pe_multiples": [30, 40, 50, 60, 80], "holding_period": { "years": 5, "required_return": 0.105, "cumulative_dividend_per_share": 0 } }, "institutions": { "coverage_status": "available", "forecasts": [ { "institution": "光大证券", "report_date": "2026-06-02", "include": true, "core_assumption": "星载优势板块持续批量交付，机载、地面和低轨卫星通信带来增量。", "source_id": "SRC-INSTITUTION-DETAIL", "estimates": { "2026": {"profit": 173000000, "eps": 0.84}, "2027": {"profit": 243000000, "eps": 1.18}, "2028": {"profit": 327000000, "eps": 1.59} } }, { "institution": "方正证券", "report_date": "2026-04-18", "include": true, "core_assumption": "下游需求恢复和低轨卫星批量化组网推动产品规模化交付。", "source_id": "SRC-INSTITUTION-DETAIL", "estimates": { "2026": {"profit": 172000000, "eps": 0.84}, "2027": {"profit": 241000000, "eps": 1.17}, "2028": {"profit": 332000000, "eps": 1.61} } }, { "institution": "华创证券", "report_date": "2026-02-09", "include": true, "core_assumption": "低轨卫星组网加速，星载项目进入常态化批量交付。", "source_id": "SRC-INSTITUTION-DETAIL", "estimates": { "2026": {"profit": 167000000, "eps": 0.81}, "2027": {"profit": 241000000, "eps": 1.17} } } ] }, "sources": [ { "id": "SRC-ANNUAL-2025", "source_type": "szse", "title": "铖昌科技2025年年度报告摘要及经审计主要数据", "publish_date": "2026-04-17", "period_end": "2025-12-31", "url": "https://disc.static.szse.cn/download/disc/disk03/finalpage/2026-04-17/4f97c490-eb69-4161-b773-88ffa70e8b99.PDF", "supports": ["financials.annual", "financials.prior_year_same_period"], "revision_status": "current" }, { "id": "SRC-Q1-2026", "source_type": "szse", "title": "铖昌科技2026年第一季度报告", "publish_date": "2026-04-28", "period_end": "2026-03-31", "url": "https://disc.static.szse.cn/disc/disk03/finalpage/2026-04-28/016a693e-7238-44a9-91ef-effcac4bdd4d.PDF", "supports": ["financials.current_cumulative", "market.diluted_shares", "balance_sheet.equity"], "revision_status": "current" }, { "id": "SRC-QUOTE-20260731", "source_type": "quote_provider", "title": "东方财富历史行情与总市值接口", "publish_date": "2026-07-31", "period_end": "2026-07-31", "url": "https://push2his.eastmoney.com/api/qt/stock/kline/get?secid=0.001270", "supports": ["market.price", "market.platform_market_cap"], "revision_status": "current" }, { "id": "SRC-INSTITUTION-DETAIL", "source_type": "institution_aggregator", "title": "东方财富盈利预测明细", "publish_date": "2026-08-01", "period_end": "2026-08-01", "url": "https://emweb.eastmoney.com/PC_HSF10/ProfitForecast/Index?code=SZ001270&type=web", "supports": ["institutions"], "revision_status": "current" }, { "id": "SRC-INSTITUTION-CONSENSUS", "source_type": "institution_aggregator", "title": "同花顺机构盈利预测汇总", "publish_date": "2026-08-01", "period_end": "2026-08-01", "url": "https://basic.10jqka.com.cn/001270/worth.html", "supports": ["institutions"], "revision_status": "current" }, { "id": "SRC-INQUIRY-REPLY-2025", "source_type": "financial_mirror", "title": "铖昌科技关于2025年度年报问询函的回复及会计师专项说明", "publish_date": "2026-05-19", "period_end": "2025-12-31", "url": "https://vip.stock.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?CompanyCode=80961980&gather=1&id=12331788", "supports": ["cashflow_quality", "revenue_recognition", "receivables"], "revision_status": "current" }, { "id": "SRC-CORPORATE-ACTION-202605", "source_type": "cninfo", "title": "撤销退市风险警示暨停复牌公告", "publish_date": "2026-05-19", "period_end": null, "url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-05-19/1225314875.PDF", "supports": ["corporate_action"], "revision_status": "current" } ], "analysis": { "company_type": "高研发、项目制、客户高度集中、军工电子与卫星通信芯片设计企业", "primary_model": "2026年前瞻正常化PE情景", "cross_checks": ["PB/ROE", "PS", "反向PE", "反向DCF", "五年持有期回报压力测试"], "profit_sources": [ "T/R芯片销售占2025年收入99.78%，是绝对利润来源。", "星载、机载、地面相控阵雷达及低轨卫星通信是公开披露的应用方向，但公司未按应用领域披露收入和利润拆分。", "2025年利润改善主要来自销量增加、规模效应和产品结构改善；技术服务收入占比已降至0.22%。" ], "profit_source_quality": [ "前五大客户收入占94.36%，单一项目交付节奏可能显著改变季度利润。", "研发费用占收入36.08%且全部费用化，技术投入真实但利润对交付规模敏感。", "TTM扣非利润低于报告利润，归一化采用扣非口径而非加回股份支付。" ], "cashflow_notes": [ "2023至2025年经营现金流连续为负；2025年为-0.47亿元。", "TTM经营现金流转为约0.19亿元、简化FCF约0.03亿元，虽改善但仅为TTM归母利润的一小部分。", "2026年一季度应收账款与应收票据合计7.52亿元，约为TTM收入的1.81倍，回款仍是估值核心约束。" ], "risks": [ "交付、验收和客户计划变化导致收入利润跨期波动。", "客户与供应商集中度高，单一客户或晶圆供应变化影响大。", "利润增速快于现金回款时，应收减值和流动性风险上升。", "当前估值对远期增长兑现要求极高，预期回落会产生显著估值压缩。" ], "upgrade_triggers": [ "半年报或三季报收入、扣非利润和经营现金流同步高增。", "应收账款及票据增速连续低于收入增速，现金转换率明显改善。", "新增公开可验证订单转化为收入且没有以信用政策放宽换取增长。", "最新财报后有三家以上机构独立更新并上调可勾稽的利润预测。" ], "downgrade_triggers": [ "2026年利润低于1.5亿元或毛利率明显回落。", "经营现金流再次大额为负，应收和票据继续快于收入增长。", "主要项目延期、客户集中风险暴露或存货减值增加。", "新增激励、融资或并购产生明显摊薄或资本占用。" ], "executive_conclusion": "以2026年7月31日92.56元计，当前价格高于本报告乐观情景上限，属于明显偏贵；合理性需要2026年利润显著超过机构一致预期，并且现金流同步改善。" } }