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哈喽大家好

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开始我们今天一个视频

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韩后出来一个消息

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这个消息其实挺有意思的

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就韩国那边开始抓人了

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一般来讲开始抓人就离底不远了

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是吧

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但开个玩笑

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但这个确实值得说一下的

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那么我们这个底

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因为今天整体来讲

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让大家就是不要太过于焦虑

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对吧

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因为我们其实已经

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属于一个慢慢摸底的过程当中

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其实看整个60分钟的话

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会更为清晰一点

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整体的结构

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其实是慢慢走一个收敛三角形

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那么差不多再推演下去

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到8月7号

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差不多这周五

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这周五和下周一

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我感觉这个位置就差不多了

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时间节点上来讲的话也差不多

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因为我们今天整体的量

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缩量对吧

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缩量是对着的

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如果今天反而放量不好

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不好

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所以缩量就对了

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缩量的话

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它就会慢慢的形成一个收敛三角形

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那么一旦形成我们这一波反弹

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因为现在走出一个背离结构

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对吧

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走出一个背离结构

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那么反弹的日期我们看不到

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但是能够反弹

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差不多高度能够看到

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差不多就1900吧

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科广501900好吧

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这个位置我是能看得到的

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所以最近就慢慢加就好了

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不用太过于着急

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让你加快一点

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加百分之百

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加百分之百

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10上周二加百分之十周三加百分之十周四加百分之百分之百分之三十

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然后周五高开肯定这天不能加

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那你就只能今天加那百分之四十

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你再慢慢加下去

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我觉得差不多吧

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明天正常来讲是要收一根小阳线的好吧

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那么他收一根小阳线

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那明天肯定你买买阴不买阳嘛

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但整体来讲就OK了

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就差不多了

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好吧

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我觉得时间来讲也是一样的

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差不多空间也也刚好再往下跌

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说实话

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整体整体不会看那么大了

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因为今天整个行情大家其实有点看不明白

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对吧

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看不明白给各位看一张图

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这个是情绪周期的这个东西前几个月还跟大家说过

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因为还没有到整体整体开始讲情绪周期的时候对吧

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但你看了之后就差不多就能明白情绪周期

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我们一共分四个阶段

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第一阶段是情绪周期

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第二阶段是情绪反抽期

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第二阶段是资金建仓期

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第三阶段是祖身期

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祖身期里面我们又分四个小阶段

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第一个小阶段是人气的形成的一个初期

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第二小阶段是人气亢奋期

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第三小阶段成熟期

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然后第四小阶段是衰退阶段

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整个第四阶段呢

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就情绪周期的第四个阶段是退烧期

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所以一共有四个周期四大周期

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那我们如果从情绪周期的角度来看的话

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其实对于今天整个很重要的一阶段是什么呢

85
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其实对于今天整个很重要的一阶段是

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其实对于今天整个行情就会比较明了了

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因为我们目前是处于情绪反抽期

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也就是第一阶段

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第一阶段的特征呢

90
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就是前期的老腰股指跌反抽

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所以我们可以看到

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前段时间的MLCC的那个票涨得比较好

93
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对吧

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包括今天

95
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我们也看到有一些商业航天出来了

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包括说AI应用那边的票

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整体走的都还不错

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对吧

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今天

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因为今天是上个月

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今天有个票是炸了嘛

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炸了之后

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NEO这边

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它是板上了

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这个也是属于之前的一个老腰股的

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之前的一个老腰股

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所以从本质上来讲呢

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是处于一个情绪反抽期

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然后这些老腰反抽

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它的整体高度不会很高的

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所以你们一直在问M

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对吧

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MLCC走这么强

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它是不是可以

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后面有行情的话

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它会继续更强

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不一定的

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它后面哪怕是会走

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也不一定会真的有走得比较好

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它会在主线行情走出来之后强

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我们后面肯定还是要去看主线行情

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但是离情绪反抽期到主线的一个行程

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它会有一段的时间

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好吧

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快的话

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可能一两周

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慢的话

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可能这边稍微等的时间比较久了

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但我今天想想跟各位聊的呢

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就是CPU这边

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像今天的部分的光走的还不错

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对吧

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因为有一些

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我们如果看这个池子的话

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能够看到有前面的这些光

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因为有一些走的还不错

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包括这边

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这边少记了一个彭东光

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少记一个北交所的

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这个今天也不错

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没有让各位买的意思

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就是我说

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因为为什么呢

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因为光通信这边

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它出了一个还行的利好

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因为Rubin Ultra

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就是因为它下一代的

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就Rubin嘛

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它原先是

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Rubin Ultra是384级别

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然后现在是

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缩减到了192级别

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为什么要这个样子缩呢

154
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有两个原因

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一个是因为HBM供应紧张

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价格上涨

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另一个原因呢

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是因为电力瓶颈

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所以它们整个规格是变小的

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规格变小之后

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那么就会影响到HBM的放量

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对吧

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它的整个增长是放缓了的

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但是对于网络的投入

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它会上升

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也就是光互联NVSwitch

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这些网络的用量会提高

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因为之前的话

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整体HBM占比占整个结构

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大概是40%

171
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然后从328G降到198G之后

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384G

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然后降到192G之后

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它的HBM的占的总成本

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大概要缩到28%

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就缩12%左右

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然后网络

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这一块的配比

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就要提高

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从4%提高到12%

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所以今天光整体走得还不错

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它是有利好的

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也就是说

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目前的市场没有乱潮

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就是没有出现问题

186
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就是说

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哪怕是它有利好

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是正常你要去涨

189
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包括之前的MSCC

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也是因为涨价

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所以才往上去涨

192
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也就是说

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现在的东西

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它并不是说

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没有根源的市场

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不讲道理的胡乱的砸

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它都是有原因的

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为什么韩国那边会砸

199
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因为HBM的用量变少了

200
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所以存储整体沉压

201
00:06:39,760 --> 00:06:42,200
这是整体的原因

202
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那么HBM这边一旦沉压之后

203
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对于半导体设备

204
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然后我们这边的

205
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这种存储芯片

206
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对吧

207
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就更不用说了

208
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那么他们基本上也都是

209
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本来就不是很正宗的

210
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然后

211
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那边一跌

212
00:06:56,840 --> 00:06:59,260
那么我们这边自然也跟着跌

213
00:06:59,260 --> 00:07:02,260
然后之前因为半导体涨了

214
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因为半导体是最后一轮去涨的

215
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所以它跌的时候

216
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也是最后一轮跌的

217
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然后在上一周

218
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光这边是完成了补跌

219
00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:16,040
然后今天半导体那边是进行补跌

220
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像一些市值比较大的

221
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对吧

222
00:07:18,740 --> 00:07:19,820
它跌的还是比较狠

223
00:07:19,820 --> 00:07:20,600
像中威公司

224
00:07:20,600 --> 00:07:22,800
包括华清科这种东西

225
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整体来讲

226
00:07:23,660 --> 00:07:25,860
跌的还是比较厉害的

227
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然后这些呢

228
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占科创50的权重又比较高

229
00:07:29,980 --> 00:07:33,480
所以以至于整个科创版

230
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科创50

231
00:07:34,680 --> 00:07:36,800
科创半导体设备ETF

232
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今天表现很

233
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很惨

234
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但是这最后一个板块也跌

235
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对吧

236
00:07:43,120 --> 00:07:44,260
我们之前超节点

237
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什么算力

238
00:07:45,140 --> 00:07:46,040
国产算力

239
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这些东西也都跌过了

240
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那么这些东西

241
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这两天的一个下跌

242
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我认为差不多了

243
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好吧

244
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时候也差不多了

245
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从时间上来讲

246
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从空间上来讲

247
00:07:55,880 --> 00:07:58,180
基本上也都也都快到位了

248
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基本上再跌

249
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再调整个

250
00:08:01,300 --> 00:08:03,760
三三四天左右

251
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我觉得就差不多了

252
00:08:05,100 --> 00:08:05,700
就到位了

253
00:08:05,700 --> 00:08:07,060
如果能够那样调的话

254
00:08:07,060 --> 00:08:08,160
我觉得是比较好的

255
00:08:08,160 --> 00:08:10,100
因为它整个完整的形态

256
00:08:10,100 --> 00:08:10,980
也能走出来

257
00:08:10,980 --> 00:08:12,960
所以科创这边

258
00:08:12,960 --> 00:08:14,760
虽然说它创新低了

259
00:08:14,760 --> 00:08:16,520
但是整体走了一个背离

260
00:08:16,520 --> 00:08:17,060
好吧

261
00:08:17,060 --> 00:08:18,160
这种背离走出来

262
00:08:18,160 --> 00:08:21,160
反而是对于后面的行情会更好的

263
00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:22,640
那么美中不足的

264
00:08:22,640 --> 00:08:24,520
就是上证这边没有踩地

265
00:08:24,520 --> 00:08:25,560
而这条没有砸下来

266
00:08:25,880 --> 00:08:28,960
那我估计国家队也不太想

267
00:08:28,960 --> 00:08:30,480
就是让上证这边下来

268
00:08:30,480 --> 00:08:32,280
如果不想让上证这边下来

269
00:08:32,280 --> 00:08:33,560
也无所谓好吧

270
00:08:33,560 --> 00:08:36,120
本身它能够横住也都ok了

271
00:08:36,120 --> 00:08:37,920
这个没有什么关系

272
00:08:37,920 --> 00:08:40,480
因此我们再回过头来看

273
00:08:40,480 --> 00:08:42,000
对吧

274
00:08:42,000 --> 00:08:45,080
我们重点就是后面

275
00:08:45,080 --> 00:08:46,100
包括说

276
00:08:46,100 --> 00:08:50,460
因为光这边光通信这边是有利好的

277
00:08:50,460 --> 00:08:53,780
所以它这两天可能会有表现

278
00:08:53,780 --> 00:08:55,840
如果说明天收一根阳线

279
00:08:55,880 --> 00:09:00,240
那么这些光是有可能会表现的

280
00:09:00,240 --> 00:09:04,320
但是我认为它整体一个幅度不会很大

281
00:09:04,320 --> 00:09:07,400
基本上也就1000就差不多了好吧

282
00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:11,240
我觉得这一波它整体反弹也就差不多了

283
00:09:11,240 --> 00:09:12,780
然后后面它再慢慢上

284
00:09:12,780 --> 00:09:13,800
后面再慢慢上

285
00:09:13,800 --> 00:09:16,360
因为等整体的一个结构起稳

286
00:09:16,360 --> 00:09:16,880
好吧

287
00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:19,680
在这边不能说就把它看作是

288
00:09:19,680 --> 00:09:21,220
多么牛的一个行情了

289
00:09:21,220 --> 00:09:23,020
因为主线行情目前还没有出来

290
00:09:23,020 --> 00:09:24,800
AI应用机器人

291
00:09:24,800 --> 00:09:25,840
包括商业航天人

292
00:09:25,840 --> 00:09:27,380
对吧

293
00:09:27,380 --> 00:09:29,940
硬科技这些都是想要去表现

294
00:09:29,940 --> 00:09:34,800
都想要去做下一个阶段的一个主线

295
00:09:34,800 --> 00:09:36,840
但是没有那么容易

296
00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:38,120
谁能走出来了

297
00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:39,160
我们进一步观察

298
00:09:39,160 --> 00:09:42,480
目前来讲的话最有可能是AI应用和

299
00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:45,040
还是和半导体相关的好吧

300
00:09:45,040 --> 00:09:46,320
但大家也知道

301
00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:49,140
因为AI应用我们这边确实不太行

302
00:09:49,140 --> 00:09:50,680
正宗的在港股

303
00:09:50,680 --> 00:09:54,000
昨天跟各位说了一个港股的票

304
00:09:54,000 --> 00:09:55,800
那个票涨的有点开了

305
00:09:55,840 --> 00:09:57,380
开盘都开的特别猛

306
00:09:57,380 --> 00:09:58,920
我也

307
00:09:58,920 --> 00:10:00,700
我也没办法说了好吧

308
00:10:00,700 --> 00:10:03,000
这种东西我有还是不提了

309
00:10:03,000 --> 00:10:04,540
提出去就

310
00:10:04,540 --> 00:10:05,560
就长成那个样子

311
00:10:05,560 --> 00:10:06,600
很恶心

312
00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:08,120
所以我们

313
00:10:08,120 --> 00:10:09,920
就继续去

314
00:10:09,920 --> 00:10:10,940
观察就好了

315
00:10:10,940 --> 00:10:12,480
谁能走出来

316
00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:13,500
不知道

317
00:10:13,500 --> 00:10:14,780
等走出来之后

318
00:10:14,780 --> 00:10:16,840
因为主线行情它一定是走出来

319
00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:17,860
走出来我们知道

320
00:10:17,860 --> 00:10:18,880
看到它成

321
00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:19,900
成为主线行情的时候

322
00:10:19,900 --> 00:10:21,180
它一定已经是

323
00:10:21,180 --> 00:10:22,200
涨了一

324
00:10:22,200 --> 00:10:23,480
一段了

325
00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:24,760
就是这些

326
00:10:24,760 --> 00:10:25,800
我们目前

327
00:10:25,800 --> 00:10:27,080
所有的

328
00:10:27,080 --> 00:10:29,380
包括说AI硬科技

329
00:10:29,380 --> 00:10:31,440
AI应用

330
00:10:31,440 --> 00:10:34,500
商业航天机器人这些东西全都属于

331
00:10:34,500 --> 00:10:35,520
超跌反弹

332
00:10:35,520 --> 00:10:38,080
只不过AI应用它跌的是

333
00:10:38,080 --> 00:10:39,880
时间是比较久的对吧

334
00:10:39,880 --> 00:10:40,900
它整体

335
00:10:40,900 --> 00:10:43,460
筹码结构出新的也比较完整

336
00:10:43,460 --> 00:10:45,260
那么周五

337
00:10:45,260 --> 00:10:47,820
资金流向了最没有

338
00:10:47,820 --> 00:10:49,600
阻力的一个位置

339
00:10:49,600 --> 00:10:52,420
包括说这边应该是有一些人

340
00:10:52,420 --> 00:10:53,440
想要去做出

341
00:10:53,440 --> 00:10:54,480
东西来的

342
00:10:54,480 --> 00:10:55,760
所以他们整个

343
00:10:55,760 --> 00:10:58,320
最近吹得非常厉害对吧

344
00:10:58,320 --> 00:11:00,360
一些卖方这边的

345
00:11:00,360 --> 00:11:01,640
资料发的也特别

346
00:11:01,640 --> 00:11:02,420
特别多

347
00:11:02,420 --> 00:11:05,240
那么说明他们是想要做出点动作

348
00:11:05,240 --> 00:11:07,280
那么再配合到

349
00:11:07,280 --> 00:11:08,820
一些实际的

350
00:11:08,820 --> 00:11:11,120
因素例如DeepSeek那边

351
00:11:11,120 --> 00:11:13,160
降价包括OpenAI降价

352
00:11:13,160 --> 00:11:17,260
然后最大的呢其实就是腾讯那边的

353
00:11:17,260 --> 00:11:20,340
那个AI智能体WorkBuddy

354
00:11:20,340 --> 00:11:22,380
那么这个东西

355
00:11:22,380 --> 00:11:25,720
甚至后面是有可能会

356
00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:28,320
被统一部署到

357
00:11:28,320 --> 00:11:29,340
央国企的

358
00:11:29,340 --> 00:11:30,880
以及政府单位当中

359
00:11:30,880 --> 00:11:32,920
所以后面的催化

360
00:11:32,920 --> 00:11:33,700
有

361
00:11:33,700 --> 00:11:34,980
故事也有

362
00:11:34,980 --> 00:11:38,300
AI的业绩也都能够给你挖掘到

363
00:11:38,300 --> 00:11:39,580
也都能够实现

364
00:11:39,580 --> 00:11:40,600
但是

365
00:11:40,600 --> 00:11:42,660
它能不能走出来

366
00:11:42,660 --> 00:11:44,960
需要整体资金的一个共识

367
00:11:44,960 --> 00:11:46,760
好吧因此我们在这段

368
00:11:46,760 --> 00:11:48,040
这段时间内呢

369
00:11:48,040 --> 00:11:50,080
还是不要追高

370
00:11:50,080 --> 00:11:51,360
对啊不要追高

371
00:11:51,360 --> 00:11:54,180
慢慢的去把科技的仓位打上去

372
00:11:54,180 --> 00:11:55,720
因为这些东西都超级反弹

373
00:11:55,760 --> 00:11:57,040
只要谈

374
00:11:57,040 --> 00:11:59,340
科创50谈

375
00:11:59,340 --> 00:12:00,880
不管那些半导体也好

376
00:12:00,880 --> 00:12:02,160
AI硬件也好

377
00:12:02,160 --> 00:12:03,440
光PCB这些东西

378
00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:05,740
他们都会有表现

379
00:12:05,740 --> 00:12:07,540
整个创业板

380
00:12:07,540 --> 00:12:09,840
上涨这些科技股也都会有表现

381
00:12:09,840 --> 00:12:11,380
甚至那些AI应用对吧

382
00:12:11,380 --> 00:12:13,160
他们也都会有表现

383
00:12:13,160 --> 00:12:15,220
我们整体把仓位推上去

384
00:12:15,220 --> 00:12:17,520
配置选手呢就把仓位推上去

385
00:12:17,520 --> 00:12:21,100
去做ETF这些东西没有什么问题

386
00:12:21,100 --> 00:12:23,400
该吃到都能吃到

387
00:12:23,400 --> 00:12:24,680
至于说

388
00:12:24,680 --> 00:12:25,720
我们去做

389
00:12:25,720 --> 00:12:27,760
组生期的时候

390
00:12:27,760 --> 00:12:28,280
对吧

391
00:12:28,280 --> 00:12:30,580
那得等他们资金杀出来之后

392
00:12:30,580 --> 00:12:31,600
我们再去做选择

393
00:12:31,600 --> 00:12:33,920
这是那些主力资金要做的事情

394
00:12:33,920 --> 00:12:35,440
对吧他们去

395
00:12:35,440 --> 00:12:37,240
杀出一条血路来

396
00:12:37,240 --> 00:12:38,780
然后我们跟着后

397
00:12:38,780 --> 00:12:40,560
跟在后面吃肉就行了

398
00:12:40,560 --> 00:12:41,600
就这么简单

399
00:12:41,600 --> 00:12:43,640
现阶段不要去赌方向

400
00:12:43,640 --> 00:12:45,180
有能力做港股的人

401
00:12:45,180 --> 00:12:46,720
去做港股的相关的配置

402
00:12:46,720 --> 00:12:48,240
好吧

403
00:12:48,240 --> 00:12:50,800
这个都没有什么问题

404
00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:51,840
嗯

405
00:12:51,840 --> 00:12:54,640
昨天跟各位讲了8月份的一个宏观

406
00:12:54,640 --> 00:12:55,680
感觉是不是有点

407
00:12:55,680 --> 00:12:57,720
把大家吓到了对吧

408
00:12:57,720 --> 00:13:00,540
其实不用太过于悲观

409
00:13:00,540 --> 00:13:01,060
好吧

410
00:13:01,060 --> 00:13:04,120
这些数据并不一定非得要往

411
00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:05,400
不好的方向走

412
00:13:05,400 --> 00:13:08,480
它是有可能会往好的方向走的

413
00:13:08,480 --> 00:13:11,800
所以不用太过于非得就说这种时候

414
00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:13,340
就要出现利空了

415
00:13:13,340 --> 00:13:16,680
我们其实上周五的上涨也是因为

416
00:13:16,680 --> 00:13:19,240
出现的是利好的消息对不对

417
00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:20,520
不是出现利空的嘛

418
00:13:20,520 --> 00:13:22,040
所以是出现利好的

419
00:13:22,040 --> 00:13:23,840
所以我们也不用太过于悲观

420
00:13:23,840 --> 00:13:25,380
照说整个8月份

421
00:13:25,380 --> 00:13:27,180
就让他们慢慢磨底嘛

422
00:13:27,180 --> 00:13:28,960
这个底磨的时间越长

423
00:13:28,960 --> 00:13:31,020
也就代表着后面

424
00:13:31,020 --> 00:13:34,080
金九银十的整个行情会长得越顺畅

425
00:13:34,080 --> 00:13:34,600
好吧

426
00:13:34,600 --> 00:13:35,620
我们整体就

427
00:13:35,620 --> 00:13:37,420
我觉得在这种位置

428
00:13:37,420 --> 00:13:40,220
没有必要去悲观了

429
00:13:40,220 --> 00:13:41,260
好吧

430
00:13:41,260 --> 00:13:43,560
这种位置真的没有必要去悲观

431
00:13:43,560 --> 00:13:44,840
该怎么做怎么做

432
00:13:44,840 --> 00:13:46,120
等出现了

433
00:13:46,120 --> 00:13:48,160
我们想象当中的主线行情的时候

434
00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:50,460
到时候去积极参与就好了

435
00:13:50,460 --> 00:13:52,260
现阶段呢就是

436
00:13:52,260 --> 00:13:55,340
尽量不要去追涨杀跌好吧

437
00:13:55,340 --> 00:13:56,620
不要去追涨杀跌

438
00:13:56,620 --> 00:13:58,920
不要被大资金牵着鼻子走

439
00:13:58,920 --> 00:14:01,480
因为现阶段从情绪周期上来讲

440
00:14:01,480 --> 00:14:03,280
是很难的

441
00:14:03,280 --> 00:14:04,560
我承认这

442
00:14:04,560 --> 00:14:05,320
我承认

443
00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:06,860
除了主升期

444
00:14:06,860 --> 00:14:08,400
主升期的

445
00:14:08,400 --> 00:14:12,240
人气亢奋期和成熟阶段相对来讲好做之外

446
00:14:12,240 --> 00:14:14,800
其他的这些所有的节点都不好做

447
00:14:14,800 --> 00:14:16,580
都很难做

448
00:14:16,580 --> 00:14:18,120
所以对于

449
00:14:18,120 --> 00:14:20,180
散户来讲其实

450
00:14:20,180 --> 00:14:23,760
你在做票的很大程度上其实都是在等

451
00:14:23,760 --> 00:14:24,780
在慢慢的等

452
00:14:24,780 --> 00:14:25,800
在熬时间

453
00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:30,160
正儿八经可以做行情的时候其实很少

454
00:14:30,160 --> 00:14:32,200
对吧所以我们整体还是要等

455
00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:34,260
包括到了资金建仓期

456
00:14:34,260 --> 00:14:38,340
这边整体的仓位甚至是要比情绪反抽期要更少的

457
00:14:38,340 --> 00:14:41,420
因为情绪反抽我们还能去做一个

458
00:14:41,420 --> 00:14:42,700
超跌反弹

459
00:14:42,700 --> 00:14:44,240
包括说我们

460
00:14:44,240 --> 00:14:47,560
这整个7月份哪怕是白酒医药

461
00:14:47,560 --> 00:14:51,400
消费对吧那些东西他们其实本质上也都是超跌反弹

462
00:14:51,400 --> 00:14:54,740
就是大量的整个超跌股呢同步上的

463
00:14:54,740 --> 00:14:58,840
只不过他会在不同的板块之间去进行一个表现

464
00:14:58,840 --> 00:15:01,660
但是在整体上涨三五天之后

465
00:15:01,660 --> 00:15:03,180
就会陆续的分化

466
00:15:03,180 --> 00:15:04,980
纯粹依赖那种

467
00:15:04,980 --> 00:15:09,080
超跌的品种呢他会回落的比较快一点

468
00:15:09,080 --> 00:15:11,120
具备产业逻辑

469
00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:12,400
业绩支撑

470
00:15:12,400 --> 00:15:12,920
与

471
00:15:12,920 --> 00:15:15,480
资金承接方向的他会走出第二波

472
00:15:15,480 --> 00:15:17,780
那么这种第二波

473
00:15:17,780 --> 00:15:19,320
他就是主线了

474
00:15:19,320 --> 00:15:21,880
所以我们在反弹初期

475
00:15:21,880 --> 00:15:23,920
没有必要去

476
00:15:23,920 --> 00:15:24,700
找对吧

477
00:15:24,700 --> 00:15:27,000
谁会是主线

478
00:15:27,000 --> 00:15:28,020
因为第

479
00:15:28,020 --> 00:15:29,300
因为

480
00:15:29,300 --> 00:15:33,140
我们在第1波反弹的时候他解决的就是

481
00:15:33,140 --> 00:15:34,420
情绪修复

482
00:15:34,420 --> 00:15:38,780
你到了第2波才会去定产业方向和龙头归属

483
00:15:38,780 --> 00:15:41,600
所以我们今天也能够看到一些

484
00:15:41,600 --> 00:15:44,920
AI应用的方向对吧他们是出现了分歧的

485
00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:47,220
因为周五整体已经普涨了嘛

486
00:15:47,220 --> 00:15:48,760
整体板块已经高潮了

487
00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:50,300
那么他们出现分歧

488
00:15:50,300 --> 00:15:52,600
分歧之后的再加强

489
00:15:52,600 --> 00:15:54,660
他才能够确认

490
00:15:54,700 --> 00:15:56,740
这个方向是有的

491
00:15:56,740 --> 00:15:57,520
东西做

492
00:15:57,520 --> 00:15:59,300
你在第1天

493
00:15:59,300 --> 00:16:02,380
普涨的时候那一天你反而是没有什么可以做的

494
00:16:02,380 --> 00:16:05,200
你整体仓位你是推不上去的

495
00:16:05,200 --> 00:16:08,520
你只有他们在分歧结束之后再次

496
00:16:08,520 --> 00:16:10,060
转强的时候

497
00:16:10,060 --> 00:16:11,860
我们才能够对他

498
00:16:11,860 --> 00:16:12,880
高看一

499
00:16:12,880 --> 00:16:15,180
所以行情是走出来不是拆出来的

500
00:16:15,180 --> 00:16:15,940
好吧

501
00:16:15,940 --> 00:16:17,220
大家

502
00:16:17,220 --> 00:16:20,560
很多散户陷入了一个误区就是非得要找确定性

503
00:16:20,560 --> 00:16:21,840
没有确定性的

504
00:16:21,840 --> 00:16:24,400
等真出确定性的时候你又不敢去买了

505
00:16:24,400 --> 00:16:25,940
还是我说了一句话好吧

506
00:16:25,940 --> 00:16:28,500
做交易不要又贪又怂

507
00:16:28,500 --> 00:16:29,780
贪呢是因为

508
00:16:29,780 --> 00:16:31,060
主线涨出来了

509
00:16:31,060 --> 00:16:33,880
主线没涨出来你想买在最底部对吧

510
00:16:33,880 --> 00:16:36,180
那么怂呢是主线涨起来了

511
00:16:36,180 --> 00:16:38,220
然后你又不敢买了

512
00:16:38,220 --> 00:16:40,520
往往就错过了主线行情

513
00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:42,320
这是散户最大的一个问题

514
00:16:42,320 --> 00:16:45,140
但也是交易当中最反人性的事情

515
00:16:45,140 --> 00:16:47,700
这也是所有散户必须要卖过的坎

516
00:16:47,700 --> 00:16:50,520
好吧你不卖过这个坎呢

517
00:16:50,520 --> 00:16:53,320
自然你就享受不到主身了

518
00:16:53,320 --> 00:16:54,360
这是我今天想讲的

519
00:16:54,360 --> 00:16:55,380
想跟各位说的

520
00:16:55,380 --> 00:16:56,660
所以最近

521
00:16:56,660 --> 00:16:57,680
依旧

522
00:16:57,680 --> 00:16:58,960
大跌大买小跌小买

523
00:16:58,960 --> 00:17:00,500
但我认为不会有

524
00:17:00,500 --> 00:17:01,520
大跌出现了好吧

525
00:17:01,520 --> 00:17:03,580
除非出现特别的利空

526
00:17:03,580 --> 00:17:06,640
那么如果出现特别的利空

527
00:17:06,640 --> 00:17:10,240
那这种点位也是比较好加仓的位置

528
00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:13,300
因为如果是因为外部的干扰的话

529
00:17:13,300 --> 00:17:15,600
反而它反弹的力度会整体会大一点

530
00:17:15,600 --> 00:17:17,140
但我不太希望这种事情出现

531
00:17:17,140 --> 00:17:18,160
因为

532
00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:19,960
暴涨和暴跌

533
00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:24,060
都不利于整体行情的一个修复

534
00:17:24,060 --> 00:17:25,860
和它的发展

535
00:17:25,860 --> 00:17:27,140
所以我还是

536
00:17:27,140 --> 00:17:28,160
希望

537
00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:29,440
好好走向今天对吧

538
00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:31,220
这个科技走成这个样子

539
00:17:31,220 --> 00:17:33,540
涨跌加速这边4000多家红牌

540
00:17:33,540 --> 00:17:34,820
只有1000多家

541
00:17:34,820 --> 00:17:35,840
绿牌

542
00:17:35,840 --> 00:17:37,620
但你如果在科技里面对吧

543
00:17:37,620 --> 00:17:40,440
就相对来讲会难受点

544
00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:42,240
包括上周五的时候

545
00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:44,800
涨跌加速也非常夸张

546
00:17:44,800 --> 00:17:47,100
但你的体感就会很弱

547
00:17:47,100 --> 00:17:48,120
这就是

548
00:17:48,120 --> 00:17:50,180
情绪反抽期的

549
00:17:50,180 --> 00:17:50,940
时候

550
00:17:50,940 --> 00:17:51,960
就这个样子

551
00:17:51,960 --> 00:17:54,020
好吧他就是要去恶心你的

552
00:17:54,060 --> 00:17:57,140
这个阶段就是散户最难受的时候

553
00:17:57,140 --> 00:17:58,660
最难受的时候

554
00:17:58,660 --> 00:18:00,720
他甚至比退烧期要更难受

555
00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:01,480
因为退烧期的吧

556
00:18:01,480 --> 00:18:02,260
见顶了

557
00:18:02,260 --> 00:18:03,780
大家都知道见顶

558
00:18:03,780 --> 00:18:05,580
那你就直接

559
00:18:05,580 --> 00:18:07,120
干脆不做不看对吧

560
00:18:07,120 --> 00:18:08,140
或者去

561
00:18:08,140 --> 00:18:08,660
搞别的

562
00:18:08,660 --> 00:18:10,700
但现在就是给你来回

563
00:18:10,700 --> 00:18:11,460
电风扇

564
00:18:11,460 --> 00:18:14,020
所以在这个阶段一定不要去追高好吧

565
00:18:14,020 --> 00:18:15,060
你追高

566
00:18:15,060 --> 00:18:15,560
会

567
00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:17,100
死得非常惨

568
00:18:17,100 --> 00:18:18,900
这是我想跟各位说的

569
00:18:18,900 --> 00:18:23,500
不悲观哪怕后面再跌好吧不悲观不悲观

570
00:18:23,500 --> 00:18:25,540
哪怕后面再跌也是正常的

571
00:18:25,540 --> 00:18:29,140
他再跌下去整个背离就会更大了

572
00:18:29,140 --> 00:18:29,640
那么

573
00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:32,720
我们对于后面的行情整体来讲就会

574
00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:33,740
更为舒服一点

575
00:18:33,740 --> 00:18:37,580
那如果你本身已经在这种位置打满仓了

576
00:18:37,580 --> 00:18:38,600
对吧那么

577
00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:40,140
后面出现上涨

578
00:18:40,140 --> 00:18:41,160
是不是你就

579
00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:42,960
比较好做替的时候了

580
00:18:42,960 --> 00:18:44,500
你就要把自己的仓位

581
00:18:44,500 --> 00:18:45,260
进行

582
00:18:45,260 --> 00:18:46,540
动一下把你的

583
00:18:46,540 --> 00:18:48,340
因为在这种时候

584
00:18:48,340 --> 00:18:49,360
其实你

585
00:18:49,360 --> 00:18:53,460
如果动一下做替的话是能把你成本

586
00:18:53,460 --> 00:18:55,760
降下来的是能够降

587
00:18:55,760 --> 00:18:57,560
降挺多的说实话

588
00:18:57,560 --> 00:18:58,580
对吧你

589
00:18:58,580 --> 00:18:59,600
周五的时候

590
00:18:59,600 --> 00:19:01,660
早盘你如果卖的话今天

591
00:19:01,660 --> 00:19:02,420
今天你

592
00:19:02,420 --> 00:19:06,520
你在一接你整体成本能降多少能降不少的

593
00:19:06,520 --> 00:19:08,560
抓住这种时候好好去把你

594
00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:09,840
你如果能

595
00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:11,640
做替去把你成本降下来

596
00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:13,420
如果做不了替

597
00:19:13,420 --> 00:19:15,480
那就继续等着呗好吧等

598
00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:16,760
反正这一轮

599
00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:18,300
科创我是

600
00:19:18,300 --> 00:19:21,620
就底部跌出来之后我认为我能看到19001900的话整体代价局部选择

601
00:19:21,620 --> 00:19:23,420
我认为我能看到190019的话整体代价局部选择

602
00:19:23,420 --> 00:19:25,220
会修复会修复的还不错

603
00:19:25,220 --> 00:19:28,020
一些被腰斩的股票甚至能

604
00:19:28,020 --> 00:19:29,060
对吧涨25%

605
00:19:29,060 --> 00:19:32,380
涨25%我认为

606
00:19:32,380 --> 00:19:34,420
还行吧好吧对于你们

607
00:19:34,420 --> 00:19:35,960
那这样已经很好了

608
00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:39,540
那么到后面再找一轮主线行情直接就做回来了好吧

609
00:19:39,540 --> 00:19:40,320
所以我认为

610
00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:42,100
整体难度没有那么大

611
00:19:42,100 --> 00:19:44,160
现阶段没有那么悲观了

612
00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:45,940
没有那么悲观

613
00:19:45,940 --> 00:19:48,260
我对于下半年来讲还是看好了

614
00:19:48,260 --> 00:19:49,280
好吧

615
00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:51,580
所以今天的视频能讲的不多

616
00:19:51,580 --> 00:19:53,120
差不多就就到这里吧

617
00:19:53,120 --> 00:19:53,380
嗯

618
00:19:53,420 --> 00:19:56,240
嗯这周也要开始看

619
00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:59,060
强趋势我还有一节没讲

620
00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:00,920
我先讲一节看图说话

621
00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:02,800
强趋势后面再讲

622
00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:03,600
好吧

623
00:20:03,600 --> 00:20:04,700
今天视频就到这里

624
00:20:04,700 --> 00:20:05,260
谢谢大家