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  "source": "BV189u16KEPe.mkv",
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  "segments": [
    {
      "start": 0.14,
      "end": 4.36,
      "text": "哈喽,大家好,开始我们今天的视频"
    },
    {
      "start": 4.36,
      "end": 9.68,
      "text": "其实我们的交易的学习是分为三个境界的"
    },
    {
      "start": 9.68,
      "end": 15.86,
      "text": "首先是价格,第二阶段是数学,第三阶段是哲学"
    },
    {
      "start": 15.86,
      "end": 22.98,
      "text": "这个过程其实和王国维在《人间词画》中提到的三个境界是很相似的"
    },
    {
      "start": 22.98,
      "end": 29.44,
      "text": "那么第一境界是左叶西风雕壁树,独上西楼,望尽天涯路"
    },
    {
      "start": 29.44,
      "end": 34.18,
      "text": "第二境界是一带剑宽中不毁,未夷消得人憔悴"
    },
    {
      "start": 34.18,
      "end": 40.4,
      "text": "第三境界就是众里寻他千百度,木然回首,难人却在灯火阑珊处"
    },
    {
      "start": 40.4,
      "end": 45.54,
      "text": "也就是说成大事业者,大学问者必经的三种境界"
    },
    {
      "start": 45.54,
      "end": 48.74,
      "text": "描述的本身就是一个人求学的过程"
    },
    {
      "start": 48.98,
      "end": 52.74,
      "text": "先确定方向,然后经历长期的求索和磨练"
    },
    {
      "start": 52.74,
      "end": 56.64,
      "text": "最后在大量积累之后产生真正的领悟"
    },
    {
      "start": 56.64,
      "end": 61.84,
      "text": "包括说他和禅宗的剑山三性也非常的贴切"
    },
    {
      "start": 61.84,
      "end": 63.72,
      "text": "也就是说剑山是山,对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 63.72,
      "end": 67.16,
      "text": "剑山不是山,以及最后阶段的剑山还是山"
    },
    {
      "start": 67.16,
      "end": 72.26,
      "text": "那么在我看来,整个交易的学习路径呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 72.26,
      "end": 75.26,
      "text": "它其实也是这个样子,只不过它不是阶段性的"
    },
    {
      "start": 75.26,
      "end": 77.04,
      "text": "它是螺旋缠绕式的"
    },
    {
      "start": 77.04,
      "end": 80.7,
      "text": "我们每经过一段时间的学习再回过头来看"
    },
    {
      "start": 80.7,
      "end": 83.54,
      "text": "之前的往往也会有新的感悟"
    },
    {
      "start": 83.54,
      "end": 85.96,
      "text": "所以我的整体的一个教学路径"
    },
    {
      "start": 86.64,
      "end": 88.58,
      "text": "像传统的教科书那样"
    },
    {
      "start": 88.58,
      "end": 90.36,
      "text": "一点一点来"
    },
    {
      "start": 90.36,
      "end": 93.6,
      "text": "我是会根据我对于市场的理解"
    },
    {
      "start": 93.6,
      "end": 95.26,
      "text": "包括对于交易的理解"
    },
    {
      "start": 95.26,
      "end": 97.58,
      "text": "穿插着我们进行学习"
    },
    {
      "start": 97.58,
      "end": 99.78,
      "text": "所以我们会从之前的,对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 99.78,
      "end": 103.22,
      "text": "我们看K线,单根K线,多根K线"
    },
    {
      "start": 103.22,
      "end": 105.86,
      "text": "包括到后面的形态学"
    },
    {
      "start": 105.86,
      "end": 107.26,
      "text": "但我没有讲形态学"
    },
    {
      "start": 107.26,
      "end": 109.42,
      "text": "是因为我认为在讲形态学之前"
    },
    {
      "start": 109.42,
      "end": 112.08,
      "text": "要跟大家先把波浪理论讲完,对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 112.08,
      "end": 113.38,
      "text": "在讲波浪理论之前"
    },
    {
      "start": 113.38,
      "end": 114.62,
      "text": "我们又要先讲均线"
    },
    {
      "start": 114.62,
      "end": 116.62,
      "text": "所以我们今天先来均线"
    },
    {
      "start": 116.64,
      "end": 117.18,
      "text": "的学习"
    },
    {
      "start": 117.18,
      "end": 118.44,
      "text": "而这些学习"
    },
    {
      "start": 118.44,
      "end": 120.76,
      "text": "它本质上对我们来讲"
    },
    {
      "start": 120.76,
      "end": 122.56,
      "text": "其实就是学会看见"
    },
    {
      "start": 122.56,
      "end": 124.22,
      "text": "也就是第一阶段的价格"
    },
    {
      "start": 124.22,
      "end": 126.16,
      "text": "因为无论是K线也好"
    },
    {
      "start": 126.16,
      "end": 128.76,
      "text": "均线,成交量,量价关系"
    },
    {
      "start": 128.76,
      "end": 130.3,
      "text": "支撑压力,多头排列"
    },
    {
      "start": 130.3,
      "end": 131.44,
      "text": "或者空头排列"
    },
    {
      "start": 131.44,
      "end": 133.24,
      "text": "以及各种的价格形态"
    },
    {
      "start": 133.24,
      "end": 134.78,
      "text": "本质上都是在训练"
    },
    {
      "start": 134.78,
      "end": 137.04,
      "text": "我们阅读市场留下的痕迹"
    },
    {
      "start": 137.04,
      "end": 140.8,
      "text": "因为一个刚进入市场的人"
    },
    {
      "start": 140.8,
      "end": 142.32,
      "text": "在看见股票图的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 142.32,
      "end": 146.2,
      "text": "通常是会看见一连串红红绿绿的K线"
    },
    {
      "start": 146.2,
      "end": 146.52,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 146.52,
      "end": 147.26,
      "text": "今天涨一点"
    },
    {
      "start": 147.26,
      "end": 148.32,
      "text": "明天跌一点"
    },
    {
      "start": 148.32,
      "end": 149.5,
      "text": "这边突然拉升"
    },
    {
      "start": 149.5,
      "end": 150.66,
      "text": "这边又突然跳水"
    },
    {
      "start": 150.66,
      "end": 153.96,
      "text": "整体是非常波动并且混乱的"
    },
    {
      "start": 153.96,
      "end": 156.28,
      "text": "但随着整个学习的深入"
    },
    {
      "start": 156.28,
      "end": 158.28,
      "text": "你开始能够区分到这些变化"
    },
    {
      "start": 158.28,
      "end": 161.06,
      "text": "看到一根长下影线"
    },
    {
      "start": 161.06,
      "end": 164.26,
      "text": "那么你可以知道盘中出现过明显的抛压"
    },
    {
      "start": 164.26,
      "end": 166.14,
      "text": "但在低位又出现了沉积"
    },
    {
      "start": 166.14,
      "end": 169.06,
      "text": "那么看见一个上量放涨回调缩量"
    },
    {
      "start": 169.06,
      "end": 170.48,
      "text": "你会下意识的认为"
    },
    {
      "start": 170.48,
      "end": 172.98,
      "text": "这是上涨和下跌的背后"
    },
    {
      "start": 172.98,
      "end": 175.54,
      "text": "有资金的一个参与程度的不同"
    },
    {
      "start": 175.54,
      "end": 176.5,
      "text": "那么当你觉得"
    },
    {
      "start": 176.52,
      "end": 178.62,
      "text": "看到20日均线持续向上的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 178.62,
      "end": 180.9,
      "text": "你会知道过去一个月的价格重心"
    },
    {
      "start": 180.9,
      "end": 181.8,
      "text": "它正在提高"
    },
    {
      "start": 181.8,
      "end": 185.88,
      "text": "看到短中期的一个均线形成多头排列"
    },
    {
      "start": 185.88,
      "end": 186.16,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 186.16,
      "end": 188.98,
      "text": "你会知道在不同的时间尺度上的价格重心"
    },
    {
      "start": 188.98,
      "end": 191.02,
      "text": "正在形成一致方向"
    },
    {
      "start": 191.02,
      "end": 194.96,
      "text": "这是我们第一阶段重点的收获"
    },
    {
      "start": 194.96,
      "end": 197.58,
      "text": "就市场开始从一团噪音"
    },
    {
      "start": 197.58,
      "end": 200.32,
      "text": "变成了一个能够阅读的语言"
    },
    {
      "start": 200.32,
      "end": 201.4,
      "text": "在这个阶段"
    },
    {
      "start": 201.4,
      "end": 204.58,
      "text": "你就会发现价格虽然每天在波动"
    },
    {
      "start": 204.58,
      "end": 206.24,
      "text": "但这些波动之间"
    },
    {
      "start": 206.24,
      "end": 207.28,
      "text": "它存在趋势"
    },
    {
      "start": 207.28,
      "end": 209.44,
      "text": "节奏位置以及力量变化"
    },
    {
      "start": 209.44,
      "end": 212.76,
      "text": "这就是我们所谓的见山试山的阶段"
    },
    {
      "start": 212.76,
      "end": 214.9,
      "text": "但问题在于第一阶段"
    },
    {
      "start": 214.9,
      "end": 217.52,
      "text": "它会有着非常大的陷阱"
    },
    {
      "start": 217.52,
      "end": 219.82,
      "text": "因为我们会去看到相似性"
    },
    {
      "start": 219.82,
      "end": 220.1,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 220.1,
      "end": 221.18,
      "text": "你看到相似性"
    },
    {
      "start": 221.18,
      "end": 224.34,
      "text": "看见相似的结构或者什么样"
    },
    {
      "start": 224.34,
      "end": 226.44,
      "text": "就会认为自己看见了因果"
    },
    {
      "start": 226.44,
      "end": 228.48,
      "text": "就学习了长下引线之后"
    },
    {
      "start": 228.48,
      "end": 230.58,
      "text": "你会很容易形成一个简单的印象"
    },
    {
      "start": 230.58,
      "end": 233.3,
      "text": "长下引线代表下方有承接"
    },
    {
      "start": 233.3,
      "end": 234.26,
      "text": "再往前一步"
    },
    {
      "start": 234.26,
      "end": 236.08,
      "text": "你就变成了看见长下引线之后"
    },
    {
      "start": 236.08,
      "end": 236.22,
      "text": "你就变成了看见长下引线之后"
    },
    {
      "start": 236.24,
      "end": 237.54,
      "text": "你就要买入"
    },
    {
      "start": 237.54,
      "end": 238.02,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 238.02,
      "end": 240.12,
      "text": "但是你在真正进入市场之后"
    },
    {
      "start": 240.12,
      "end": 241.84,
      "text": "会发现同样一根K线"
    },
    {
      "start": 241.84,
      "end": 244.78,
      "text": "如果出现在长期上涨后高位"
    },
    {
      "start": 244.78,
      "end": 245.72,
      "text": "并伴随巨量"
    },
    {
      "start": 245.72,
      "end": 248.14,
      "text": "那么可能代表的是剧烈的分歧"
    },
    {
      "start": 248.14,
      "end": 250.38,
      "text": "如果出现在下跌的末端"
    },
    {
      "start": 250.38,
      "end": 252.04,
      "text": "并伴随着恐慌放量"
    },
    {
      "start": 252.04,
      "end": 254.98,
      "text": "它又可能意味着集中抛售"
    },
    {
      "start": 254.98,
      "end": 256.1,
      "text": "开始释放"
    },
    {
      "start": 256.1,
      "end": 259.18,
      "text": "如果只是出现在横盘区的一个中央"
    },
    {
      "start": 259.18,
      "end": 263.12,
      "text": "它甚至没有太大的一个方向的意义"
    },
    {
      "start": 263.12,
      "end": 266.02,
      "text": "所以我们在之前的课程当中"
    },
    {
      "start": 266.02,
      "end": 266.08,
      "text": "一直在想"
    },
    {
      "start": 266.08,
      "end": 268.64,
      "text": "一直强调的就是位置决定意义"
    },
    {
      "start": 268.64,
      "end": 268.86,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 268.86,
      "end": 270.02,
      "text": "再往深处讲了"
    },
    {
      "start": 270.02,
      "end": 272.98,
      "text": "就是位置 趋势 量能 市场环境"
    },
    {
      "start": 272.98,
      "end": 274.28,
      "text": "以及时间尺度"
    },
    {
      "start": 274.28,
      "end": 276.64,
      "text": "它共同决定了一个价格的现象"
    },
    {
      "start": 276.64,
      "end": 277.86,
      "text": "到底意味着什么"
    },
    {
      "start": 277.86,
      "end": 279.04,
      "text": "所以这个时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 279.04,
      "end": 281.48,
      "text": "第一阶段的局限性就会开始出现"
    },
    {
      "start": 281.48,
      "end": 282.72,
      "text": "很多人会发现"
    },
    {
      "start": 282.72,
      "end": 285.1,
      "text": "你明明学会了很多的形态"
    },
    {
      "start": 285.1,
      "end": 287.54,
      "text": "为什么交易反而越来越没有确定性"
    },
    {
      "start": 287.54,
      "end": 289.98,
      "text": "这个时候就会本能的认为"
    },
    {
      "start": 289.98,
      "end": 291.58,
      "text": "是不是自己掌握的还不够"
    },
    {
      "start": 291.58,
      "end": 294.62,
      "text": "包括说我们后面会教到形态学"
    },
    {
      "start": 294.62,
      "end": 296.06,
      "text": "各种的指标"
    },
    {
      "start": 296.06,
      "end": 297.08,
      "text": "的用法"
    },
    {
      "start": 297.08,
      "end": 299.94,
      "text": "以及斐波拉切 波浪 筹码风"
    },
    {
      "start": 299.94,
      "end": 303.22,
      "text": "甚至我会去讲推背图"
    },
    {
      "start": 303.22,
      "end": 303.48,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 303.48,
      "end": 307.1,
      "text": "会去跟各位聊几十种工具"
    },
    {
      "start": 307.1,
      "end": 309.52,
      "text": "但是你在学习的过程当中"
    },
    {
      "start": 309.52,
      "end": 311.58,
      "text": "其实潜意识的就会认为"
    },
    {
      "start": 311.58,
      "end": 314.16,
      "text": "希望通过增加信息"
    },
    {
      "start": 314.16,
      "end": 317.06,
      "text": "去消除在股市当中的不确定性"
    },
    {
      "start": 317.06,
      "end": 319.76,
      "text": "但是股市的不确定性并不会改变"
    },
    {
      "start": 319.76,
      "end": 322.82,
      "text": "如果当你认识到这一点的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 322.82,
      "end": 324.7,
      "text": "我们就能够进入第二阶段"
    },
    {
      "start": 324.7,
      "end": 326.02,
      "text": "也就是数学"
    },
    {
      "start": 326.06,
      "end": 329.04,
      "text": "因此我们从K线到均线"
    },
    {
      "start": 329.04,
      "end": 332.0,
      "text": "它本身就是从局部到整体的一个过程"
    },
    {
      "start": 332.0,
      "end": 332.26,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 332.26,
      "end": 334.92,
      "text": "我们学单根K线的多空表态"
    },
    {
      "start": 334.92,
      "end": 336.38,
      "text": "到两根K线的组合"
    },
    {
      "start": 336.38,
      "end": 339.16,
      "text": "再到包含关系和不同位置下的K线含义"
    },
    {
      "start": 339.16,
      "end": 342.48,
      "text": "实际上就是为了去读懂价格的"
    },
    {
      "start": 342.48,
      "end": 343.82,
      "text": "最基础的一个语言"
    },
    {
      "start": 343.82,
      "end": 347.26,
      "text": "一根K线记录的是一个交易周期"
    },
    {
      "start": 347.26,
      "end": 350.06,
      "text": "多方以及空方双方的一个博弈结果"
    },
    {
      "start": 350.06,
      "end": 352.4,
      "text": "那么开盘价代表是博弈的起点"
    },
    {
      "start": 352.4,
      "end": 353.98,
      "text": "最高价和最低价记录"
    },
    {
      "start": 353.98,
      "end": 355.66,
      "text": "双方曾经推到过什么位置"
    },
    {
      "start": 356.06,
      "end": 359.28,
      "text": "收盘价反映的是博弈结束后"
    },
    {
      "start": 359.28,
      "end": 361.74,
      "text": "谁能够更占据优势"
    },
    {
      "start": 361.74,
      "end": 364.2,
      "text": "那么通过K线我们能够判断"
    },
    {
      "start": 364.2,
      "end": 367.12,
      "text": "当天是多方进攻还是空方进攻"
    },
    {
      "start": 367.12,
      "end": 369.24,
      "text": "那么上涨过程中有没有抛价"
    },
    {
      "start": 369.24,
      "end": 370.72,
      "text": "下跌过程中有没有承接"
    },
    {
      "start": 370.72,
      "end": 373.34,
      "text": "价格来到了关键位置后继续突破"
    },
    {
      "start": 373.34,
      "end": 374.42,
      "text": "还是冲高回落"
    },
    {
      "start": 374.42,
      "end": 378.42,
      "text": "但是K线它有一个天然的局限"
    },
    {
      "start": 378.42,
      "end": 380.66,
      "text": "那就是观察周期太短"
    },
    {
      "start": 380.66,
      "end": 383.6,
      "text": "因为一根日类的K线"
    },
    {
      "start": 383.6,
      "end": 385.1,
      "text": "它只能记录一天"
    },
    {
      "start": 385.1,
      "end": 385.82,
      "text": "两根开"
    },
    {
      "start": 386.06,
      "end": 387.74,
      "text": "K线只能记录两天"
    },
    {
      "start": 387.74,
      "end": 390.64,
      "text": "即使你学到了三根K线"
    },
    {
      "start": 390.64,
      "end": 393.1,
      "text": "那也只是多观察了几个交易日"
    },
    {
      "start": 393.1,
      "end": 395.9,
      "text": "从局部上我们很难判断"
    },
    {
      "start": 395.9,
      "end": 397.94,
      "text": "整场战争的一个方向"
    },
    {
      "start": 397.94,
      "end": 400.82,
      "text": "那么一直长期下跌的股票"
    },
    {
      "start": 400.82,
      "end": 402.64,
      "text": "突然间来了一根大阳线"
    },
    {
      "start": 402.64,
      "end": 406.98,
      "text": "我们其实是可以判断当天的多方强"
    },
    {
      "start": 406.98,
      "end": 409.16,
      "text": "多方的力量很强"
    },
    {
      "start": 409.16,
      "end": 411.52,
      "text": "但是无法去判断趋势"
    },
    {
      "start": 411.52,
      "end": 414.6,
      "text": "反过来一只股票可能已经上涨了数据"
    },
    {
      "start": 414.6,
      "end": 416.04,
      "text": "突然间出现一根大的阴线"
    },
    {
      "start": 416.06,
      "end": 416.68,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 416.68,
      "end": 419.24,
      "text": "那么可能它是趋势转入"
    },
    {
      "start": 419.24,
      "end": 422.02,
      "text": "但也有可能是上涨途中的正常回调"
    },
    {
      "start": 422.02,
      "end": 424.2,
      "text": "因此我们就需要一个工具"
    },
    {
      "start": 424.2,
      "end": 426.94,
      "text": "把10天20天甚至一个季度"
    },
    {
      "start": 426.94,
      "end": 430.64,
      "text": "包括一年的价格信息压缩到一条线上"
    },
    {
      "start": 430.64,
      "end": 433.9,
      "text": "帮助我们去观察价格重心"
    },
    {
      "start": 433.9,
      "end": 436.48,
      "text": "究竟是在向上移动还是向下移动"
    },
    {
      "start": 436.48,
      "end": 438.22,
      "text": "又或者是停留在原地"
    },
    {
      "start": 438.22,
      "end": 441.42,
      "text": "那么这个工具就是移动平均线"
    },
    {
      "start": 441.42,
      "end": 443.96,
      "text": "也是我们俗称的均线"
    },
    {
      "start": 443.96,
      "end": 445.9,
      "text": "均线通常是向上移动的"
    },
    {
      "start": 445.9,
      "end": 446.04,
      "text": "均线通常是向下移动的"
    },
    {
      "start": 446.06,
      "end": 449.24,
      "text": "因为它是英文moving average的缩写"
    },
    {
      "start": 449.24,
      "end": 449.58,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 449.58,
      "end": 450.8,
      "text": "我们取首字母MA"
    },
    {
      "start": 450.8,
      "end": 454.56,
      "text": "那么最常见的是五日均线为例"
    },
    {
      "start": 454.56,
      "end": 456.22,
      "text": "那么今天的五日线"
    },
    {
      "start": 456.22,
      "end": 460.1,
      "text": "等于最近五个交易日收盘价的算术平均值"
    },
    {
      "start": 460.1,
      "end": 462.7,
      "text": "我们假设最近五天的收盘价"
    },
    {
      "start": 462.7,
      "end": 463.92,
      "text": "分别是10块钱"
    },
    {
      "start": 463.92,
      "end": 465.66,
      "text": "10块2毛钱"
    },
    {
      "start": 465.66,
      "end": 466.58,
      "text": "10块1毛钱"
    },
    {
      "start": 466.58,
      "end": 468.2,
      "text": "10块4毛钱和10块3毛钱"
    },
    {
      "start": 468.2,
      "end": 469.7,
      "text": "我们把它加起来除以5"
    },
    {
      "start": 469.7,
      "end": 471.18,
      "text": "那么就得到10块2毛钱"
    },
    {
      "start": 471.18,
      "end": 473.74,
      "text": "所以今天图表上的五日线"
    },
    {
      "start": 473.74,
      "end": 475.26,
      "text": "就会在10块2毛钱"
    },
    {
      "start": 475.26,
      "end": 476.04,
      "text": "生成一个定位"
    },
    {
      "start": 476.06,
      "end": 476.38,
      "text": "点"
    },
    {
      "start": 476.38,
      "end": 477.74,
      "text": "第二天收盘之后"
    },
    {
      "start": 477.74,
      "end": 479.54,
      "text": "最早那一天数据被移出"
    },
    {
      "start": 479.54,
      "end": 481.56,
      "text": "然后最新一天的收盘价被加进来"
    },
    {
      "start": 481.56,
      "end": 483.42,
      "text": "那么再重新计算一个平均值"
    },
    {
      "start": 483.42,
      "end": 485.02,
      "text": "每天算一个新点"
    },
    {
      "start": 485.02,
      "end": 486.64,
      "text": "然后把这些点连接起来"
    },
    {
      "start": 486.64,
      "end": 489.32,
      "text": "就成一条移动的平均线"
    },
    {
      "start": 489.32,
      "end": 491.2,
      "text": "也就是我们所谓的均线"
    },
    {
      "start": 491.2,
      "end": 494.28,
      "text": "它本质上就是指计算窗口"
    },
    {
      "start": 494.28,
      "end": 495.56,
      "text": "在不断向前推进"
    },
    {
      "start": 495.56,
      "end": 497.72,
      "text": "五日线呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 497.72,
      "end": 499.82,
      "text": "永远只观察最近的五根K线"
    },
    {
      "start": 499.82,
      "end": 500.04,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 500.04,
      "end": 501.42,
      "text": "二十日线就永远只观察"
    },
    {
      "start": 501.42,
      "end": 502.72,
      "text": "最近的二十根K线"
    },
    {
      "start": 502.72,
      "end": 504.46,
      "text": "旧的数据不断移出"
    },
    {
      "start": 504.46,
      "end": 505.54,
      "text": "新的数据不断加入"
    },
    {
      "start": 505.54,
      "end": 506.04,
      "text": "但是这次的平均线"
    },
    {
      "start": 506.06,
      "end": 507.28,
      "text": "这样的一个均线"
    },
    {
      "start": 507.28,
      "end": 510.52,
      "text": "它本质上就会形成一个之后的情况"
    },
    {
      "start": 510.52,
      "end": 511.72,
      "text": "因为价格先变化"
    },
    {
      "start": 511.72,
      "end": 512.74,
      "text": "均线后变化"
    },
    {
      "start": 512.74,
      "end": 515.72,
      "text": "假设股价今天突然上涨10%"
    },
    {
      "start": 515.72,
      "end": 518.34,
      "text": "这个新价格的五日线里面"
    },
    {
      "start": 518.34,
      "end": 519.38,
      "text": "只占五分之一"
    },
    {
      "start": 519.38,
      "end": 520.4,
      "text": "在二十日线里面"
    },
    {
      "start": 520.4,
      "end": 521.98,
      "text": "只占二十分之一"
    },
    {
      "start": 521.98,
      "end": 523.72,
      "text": "所以同样的一次上涨"
    },
    {
      "start": 523.72,
      "end": 525.08,
      "text": "五日线可能迅速抬头"
    },
    {
      "start": 525.08,
      "end": 525.9,
      "text": "二十日线"
    },
    {
      "start": 525.9,
      "end": 527.74,
      "text": "它只会发生轻微的变化"
    },
    {
      "start": 527.74,
      "end": 529.98,
      "text": "到了六十日线"
    },
    {
      "start": 529.98,
      "end": 530.88,
      "text": "甚至是年线"
    },
    {
      "start": 530.88,
      "end": 533.18,
      "text": "它甚至是没有什么变化的"
    },
    {
      "start": 533.18,
      "end": 534.56,
      "text": "所以本质上来讲"
    },
    {
      "start": 534.56,
      "end": 535.82,
      "text": "均线它是牺牲了"
    },
    {
      "start": 535.82,
      "end": 536.04,
      "text": "一部分的"
    },
    {
      "start": 536.04,
      "end": 537.14,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 537.14,
      "end": 538.92,
      "text": "从而换取了更高的稳定性"
    },
    {
      "start": 538.92,
      "end": 541.88,
      "text": "因此我们就可以将均线"
    },
    {
      "start": 541.88,
      "end": 543.88,
      "text": "去作为一个价格重心"
    },
    {
      "start": 543.88,
      "end": 547.14,
      "text": "也可以近似的看作市场"
    },
    {
      "start": 547.14,
      "end": 549.5,
      "text": "共同关注的一个成本的锚"
    },
    {
      "start": 549.5,
      "end": 552.44,
      "text": "所以如果二十日线持续向上"
    },
    {
      "start": 552.44,
      "end": 553.62,
      "text": "我们就能够说明"
    },
    {
      "start": 553.62,
      "end": 556.0,
      "text": "最近一个月的平均收盘正在提高"
    },
    {
      "start": 556.0,
      "end": 557.36,
      "text": "如果持续向下"
    },
    {
      "start": 557.36,
      "end": 560.58,
      "text": "就说明一个月的价格重心不断下降"
    },
    {
      "start": 560.58,
      "end": 562.08,
      "text": "如果长期走平"
    },
    {
      "start": 562.08,
      "end": 562.96,
      "text": "我们可以说"
    },
    {
      "start": 562.96,
      "end": 563.44,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 563.44,
      "end": 564.8,
      "text": "一个月的平均价格"
    },
    {
      "start": 564.8,
      "end": 565.8,
      "text": "它没有出现明显的变化"
    },
    {
      "start": 565.8,
      "end": 566.02,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 566.02,
      "end": 568.16,
      "text": "市场更接近震荡状态"
    },
    {
      "start": 568.16,
      "end": 569.48,
      "text": "二十日均线"
    },
    {
      "start": 569.48,
      "end": 572.06,
      "text": "这个是在全球范围内"
    },
    {
      "start": 572.06,
      "end": 575.18,
      "text": "我们使用比较多的一个趋势的标准"
    },
    {
      "start": 575.18,
      "end": 576.02,
      "text": "也就是说"
    },
    {
      "start": 576.02,
      "end": 579.72,
      "text": "我们假设一个股票是处于上升趋势的"
    },
    {
      "start": 579.72,
      "end": 582.24,
      "text": "那么它就应该是在二十日线"
    },
    {
      "start": 582.24,
      "end": 582.5,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 582.5,
      "end": 583.26,
      "text": "持续向上"
    },
    {
      "start": 583.26,
      "end": 586.42,
      "text": "那么价格是长期运行在二十日线上方的"
    },
    {
      "start": 586.42,
      "end": 591.58,
      "text": "但如果价格从高位回落到二十日附近的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 591.58,
      "end": 595.12,
      "text": "我们从心理的角度上来看"
    },
    {
      "start": 595.12,
      "end": 596.82,
      "text": "就会产生一些变化"
    },
    {
      "start": 596.82,
      "end": 599.48,
      "text": "因为这个时候会同时出现三种力量"
    },
    {
      "start": 599.48,
      "end": 599.7,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 599.7,
      "end": 601.38,
      "text": "原有的持仓者会发现"
    },
    {
      "start": 601.38,
      "end": 604.1,
      "text": "价格回到了一个月的平均附近"
    },
    {
      "start": 604.1,
      "end": 606.6,
      "text": "自己的利润是有所减少的"
    },
    {
      "start": 606.6,
      "end": 608.98,
      "text": "但只要趋势没有明显破坏"
    },
    {
      "start": 608.98,
      "end": 611.24,
      "text": "这其中一部分人会选择继续等待"
    },
    {
      "start": 611.24,
      "end": 612.42,
      "text": "不愿意立刻卖出"
    },
    {
      "start": 612.42,
      "end": 616.2,
      "text": "于是成市场的整个抛压可能下降"
    },
    {
      "start": 616.2,
      "end": 618.54,
      "text": "但如果是踏空的资金呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 618.54,
      "end": 621.16,
      "text": "就会有一个另一种心态"
    },
    {
      "start": 621.16,
      "end": 622.72,
      "text": "就是价格快速上涨的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 622.72,
      "end": 623.52,
      "text": "不愿意追高"
    },
    {
      "start": 623.52,
      "end": 624.96,
      "text": "如今价格重新回落了"
    },
    {
      "start": 624.96,
      "end": 626.68,
      "text": "回到了一个月平均区域"
    },
    {
      "start": 626.68,
      "end": 629.42,
      "text": "那么就会认为整体的风险收益有所改善"
    },
    {
      "start": 629.42,
      "end": 630.8,
      "text": "开始尝试买入"
    },
    {
      "start": 630.8,
      "end": 635.28,
      "text": "还有第三类就是按照趋势规则交易的资金"
    },
    {
      "start": 635.28,
      "end": 637.74,
      "text": "那么他们本身就会把向上的二十日线"
    },
    {
      "start": 637.74,
      "end": 640.1,
      "text": "视为潜在的一个回踩区域"
    },
    {
      "start": 640.1,
      "end": 644.86,
      "text": "等待K线止损后进行一个建仓的行为"
    },
    {
      "start": 644.86,
      "end": 647.74,
      "text": "所以这三股力量叠加起来"
    },
    {
      "start": 647.74,
      "end": 650.88,
      "text": "整体向上的均线就会容易形成支撑"
    },
    {
      "start": 650.88,
      "end": 654.48,
      "text": "但反过来它情形其实也是完全对称的"
    },
    {
      "start": 654.48,
      "end": 659.5,
      "text": "如果一个价格长期运行在向下的二十日线之下"
    },
    {
      "start": 659.5,
      "end": 662.54,
      "text": "那么随后它反弹到二十日附近"
    },
    {
      "start": 662.54,
      "end": 665.24,
      "text": "那么前期在较高位置买入的资金"
    },
    {
      "start": 665.24,
      "end": 667.56,
      "text": "开始接近回本一部分被套的资金"
    },
    {
      "start": 667.56,
      "end": 670.14,
      "text": "终于回来了就会先卖掉"
    },
    {
      "start": 670.14,
      "end": 671.86,
      "text": "产生这样的一个心理"
    },
    {
      "start": 671.86,
      "end": 673.8,
      "text": "就会容易形成解套盘"
    },
    {
      "start": 673.8,
      "end": 678.74,
      "text": "那么短线抄底资金也可能在这个地方止盈"
    },
    {
      "start": 678.74,
      "end": 681.52,
      "text": "趋势资金也会把向下的均线"
    },
    {
      "start": 681.52,
      "end": 683.94,
      "text": "当做是一个减仓的位置"
    },
    {
      "start": 683.94,
      "end": 684.46,
      "text": "卖盘的位置"
    },
    {
      "start": 684.48,
      "end": 687.1,
      "text": "卖盘增加价格自然就容易受到压制"
    },
    {
      "start": 687.1,
      "end": 690.08,
      "text": "所以整个均线的支撑和压力"
    },
    {
      "start": 690.08,
      "end": 694.18,
      "text": "它来源于市场参与者围绕平均价格"
    },
    {
      "start": 694.18,
      "end": 697.82,
      "text": "盈亏状态以及交易规则形成的"
    },
    {
      "start": 697.82,
      "end": 700.52,
      "text": "具体的集体的一个交易行为"
    },
    {
      "start": 700.52,
      "end": 703.18,
      "text": "因此交易因此均线本身"
    },
    {
      "start": 703.18,
      "end": 706.94,
      "text": "它只是说把这些集中的力量"
    },
    {
      "start": 706.94,
      "end": 709.2,
      "text": "对吧的一个位置画了出来"
    },
    {
      "start": 709.2,
      "end": 712.02,
      "text": "这也能够解释为什么同一条均线"
    },
    {
      "start": 712.02,
      "end": 713.1,
      "text": "有时候是支撑"
    },
    {
      "start": 713.1,
      "end": 714.6,
      "text": "有时候又是压力"
    },
    {
      "start": 714.6,
      "end": 717.72,
      "text": "向上的均线回调是更容易出现承接"
    },
    {
      "start": 717.72,
      "end": 722.0,
      "text": "向下的均线反弹的时候更容易出现抛压"
    },
    {
      "start": 722.0,
      "end": 723.38,
      "text": "而均线走平的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 723.38,
      "end": 727.06,
      "text": "多空成本高度交叉支撑和压力的方向性"
    },
    {
      "start": 727.06,
      "end": 728.28,
      "text": "就会明显的减弱"
    },
    {
      "start": 728.28,
      "end": 730.08,
      "text": "所以在这样的情况下"
    },
    {
      "start": 730.08,
      "end": 735.04,
      "text": "我们就可以更多的去理解均线的一个滞后性"
    },
    {
      "start": 735.04,
      "end": 737.52,
      "text": "因为均线它本身过滤掉的"
    },
    {
      "start": 737.52,
      "end": 740.2,
      "text": "就是盘中的一些变化"
    },
    {
      "start": 740.2,
      "end": 741.78,
      "text": "就是那些持续短"
    },
    {
      "start": 741.78,
      "end": 744.32,
      "text": "缺乏延续性的价格波动"
    },
    {
      "start": 744.32,
      "end": 747.02,
      "text": "市场今天可能大涨明天又大跌"
    },
    {
      "start": 747.02,
      "end": 749.14,
      "text": "如果你只看单日的K线"
    },
    {
      "start": 749.14,
      "end": 753.56,
      "text": "那么交易者就会很容易跟随最新的一个情绪"
    },
    {
      "start": 753.56,
      "end": 755.1,
      "text": "反复的改变判断"
    },
    {
      "start": 755.1,
      "end": 758.88,
      "text": "而均线不会根据每一次短期的变化"
    },
    {
      "start": 758.88,
      "end": 761.16,
      "text": "做出同等幅度的一个反应"
    },
    {
      "start": 761.16,
      "end": 765.06,
      "text": "只有连续的变化才能推动它真正的转向"
    },
    {
      "start": 765.06,
      "end": 768.6,
      "text": "所以我们经常说趋势一旦形成"
    },
    {
      "start": 768.6,
      "end": 769.86,
      "text": "不会轻易改变"
    },
    {
      "start": 769.86,
      "end": 771.22,
      "text": "就是这个道理"
    },
    {
      "start": 771.22,
      "end": 771.4,
      "text": "对"
    },
    {
      "start": 771.78,
      "end": 773.94,
      "text": "我们打开整个软件的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 773.94,
      "end": 776.96,
      "text": "其实通常看到默认的是5日"
    },
    {
      "start": 776.96,
      "end": 777.52,
      "text": "10日"
    },
    {
      "start": 777.52,
      "end": 778.14,
      "text": "20日"
    },
    {
      "start": 778.14,
      "end": 778.7,
      "text": "30日"
    },
    {
      "start": 778.7,
      "end": 779.06,
      "text": "60日"
    },
    {
      "start": 779.06,
      "end": 780.52,
      "text": "120日和250日"
    },
    {
      "start": 780.52,
      "end": 781.74,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 781.74,
      "end": 784.06,
      "text": "这些那么大概就是一周"
    },
    {
      "start": 784.06,
      "end": 785.0,
      "text": "一个月"
    },
    {
      "start": 785.0,
      "end": 786.48,
      "text": "一个季度"
    },
    {
      "start": 786.48,
      "end": 787.12,
      "text": "半年"
    },
    {
      "start": 787.12,
      "end": 787.58,
      "text": "一年"
    },
    {
      "start": 787.58,
      "end": 789.98,
      "text": "这些对我们来讲比较有价值的"
    },
    {
      "start": 789.98,
      "end": 791.94,
      "text": "就是5日线和20日线"
    },
    {
      "start": 791.94,
      "end": 796.12,
      "text": "我到后面还会跟各位再去说一些其他的"
    },
    {
      "start": 796.12,
      "end": 800.38,
      "text": "因为他们的整体的观察的人更多"
    },
    {
      "start": 800.38,
      "end": 801.76,
      "text": "他会产生较强的变化"
    },
    {
      "start": 801.78,
      "end": 804.02,
      "text": "所以我们要做一个很简单的一个市场的共识"
    },
    {
      "start": 804.02,
      "end": 806.06,
      "text": "当大量的投资者同时关注20日线"
    },
    {
      "start": 806.06,
      "end": 806.34,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 806.34,
      "end": 808.96,
      "text": "就会有一部分资金在这个地方挂单"
    },
    {
      "start": 808.96,
      "end": 812.18,
      "text": "另外一部分资金会把它作为止损"
    },
    {
      "start": 812.18,
      "end": 813.48,
      "text": "或者是减仓的依据"
    },
    {
      "start": 813.48,
      "end": 817.9,
      "text": "这种共同关注就会形成一定的自我实现的效应"
    },
    {
      "start": 817.9,
      "end": 821.28,
      "text": "但在这里面有一个数学问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 821.28,
      "end": 825.86,
      "text": "就是说我们到底是用什么坐标系"
    },
    {
      "start": 825.86,
      "end": 827.36,
      "text": "在理解这个世界"
    },
    {
      "start": 827.36,
      "end": 830.58,
      "text": "我们先做一个很简单的实验"
    },
    {
      "start": 830.58,
      "end": 831.02,
      "text": "就是"
    },
    {
      "start": 831.02,
      "end": 831.76,
      "text": "我们先做一个很简单的实验"
    },
    {
      "start": 831.78,
      "end": 833.18,
      "text": "假设有一条竖轴"
    },
    {
      "start": 833.18,
      "end": 835.34,
      "text": "左端是1000"
    },
    {
      "start": 835.34,
      "end": 838.84,
      "text": "然后中端是百万"
    },
    {
      "start": 838.84,
      "end": 841.42,
      "text": "然后到最右端是10亿"
    },
    {
      "start": 841.42,
      "end": 842.72,
      "text": "因为像英语里面"
    },
    {
      "start": 842.72,
      "end": 844.28,
      "text": "它没有万这个单位"
    },
    {
      "start": 844.28,
      "end": 846.12,
      "text": "它是million和billion"
    },
    {
      "start": 846.12,
      "end": 847.14,
      "text": "所以我们就"
    },
    {
      "start": 847.14,
      "end": 848.7,
      "text": "也就是说"
    },
    {
      "start": 848.7,
      "end": 851.02,
      "text": "后面每个它多了三个零"
    },
    {
      "start": 851.02,
      "end": 851.7,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 851.7,
      "end": 852.36,
      "text": "然后我们"
    },
    {
      "start": 852.36,
      "end": 856.24,
      "text": "如果你去凭你的直觉去画这个线段"
    },
    {
      "start": 856.24,
      "end": 860.46,
      "text": "你应该把百万画在这个线段的哪个位置"
    },
    {
      "start": 860.46,
      "end": 861.76,
      "text": "如果这个问题刚出来的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 861.78,
      "end": 863.68,
      "text": "你可能会潜意识当中"
    },
    {
      "start": 863.68,
      "end": 866.4,
      "text": "去把百万放在这个线的中间附近"
    },
    {
      "start": 866.4,
      "end": 866.84,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 866.84,
      "end": 871.56,
      "text": "至少说它不会紧紧的贴在最左端"
    },
    {
      "start": 871.56,
      "end": 875.86,
      "text": "但是答案就是这个百万是非常左的一个位置"
    },
    {
      "start": 875.86,
      "end": 876.94,
      "text": "是极左"
    },
    {
      "start": 876.94,
      "end": 878.36,
      "text": "极其靠左的位置"
    },
    {
      "start": 878.36,
      "end": 881.96,
      "text": "因为中间它应该是5亿"
    },
    {
      "start": 881.96,
      "end": 882.62,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 882.62,
      "end": 883.64,
      "text": "它中间是5亿"
    },
    {
      "start": 883.64,
      "end": 885.72,
      "text": "5亿的中间"
    },
    {
      "start": 885.72,
      "end": 886.76,
      "text": "它是2.5亿"
    },
    {
      "start": 886.76,
      "end": 889.04,
      "text": "2.5亿中间是1.25亿"
    },
    {
      "start": 889.04,
      "end": 891.76,
      "text": "1.25亿的中间是6254亿"
    },
    {
      "start": 891.78,
      "end": 892.06,
      "text": "10万"
    },
    {
      "start": 892.06,
      "end": 893.18,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 893.18,
      "end": 896.78,
      "text": "你一次一次的不停的割你100万"
    },
    {
      "start": 896.78,
      "end": 899.48,
      "text": "它其实是非常靠近左端的一个位置"
    },
    {
      "start": 899.48,
      "end": 901.82,
      "text": "而为什么会如此极端呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 901.82,
      "end": 905.78,
      "text": "就是因为加法距离和乘法距离"
    },
    {
      "start": 905.78,
      "end": 908.8,
      "text": "它是完全两个不一样的事情"
    },
    {
      "start": 908.8,
      "end": 910.18,
      "text": "普通的数轴"
    },
    {
      "start": 910.18,
      "end": 912.78,
      "text": "它问的是两个数字相差多少"
    },
    {
      "start": 912.78,
      "end": 914.76,
      "text": "但是在乘法里面"
    },
    {
      "start": 914.76,
      "end": 917.08,
      "text": "它问的是两个数字相差多少倍"
    },
    {
      "start": 917.08,
      "end": 919.06,
      "text": "前者是绝对差"
    },
    {
      "start": 919.06,
      "end": 920.8,
      "text": "后者是相对比"
    },
    {
      "start": 920.8,
      "end": 921.76,
      "text": "我们日常的乘法里面"
    },
    {
      "start": 921.78,
      "end": 926.32,
      "text": "我们日常当中是会更接近于加法的"
    },
    {
      "start": 926.32,
      "end": 928.68,
      "text": "但只要我们进入到增长"
    },
    {
      "start": 928.68,
      "end": 932.5,
      "text": "进入到金融概率以及复杂的系统的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 932.5,
      "end": 935.04,
      "text": "它反而就会进入到乘法世界"
    },
    {
      "start": 935.04,
      "end": 936.86,
      "text": "所以我们这个世界"
    },
    {
      "start": 936.86,
      "end": 940.52,
      "text": "本质上它是乘法世界"
    },
    {
      "start": 940.52,
      "end": 941.72,
      "text": "而不是加法世界"
    },
    {
      "start": 941.72,
      "end": 943.84,
      "text": "但是我们大多数的人"
    },
    {
      "start": 943.84,
      "end": 945.52,
      "text": "他是加法的思维"
    },
    {
      "start": 945.52,
      "end": 948.44,
      "text": "这一点其实也很正常"
    },
    {
      "start": 948.44,
      "end": 950.74,
      "text": "因为我们绝大多数人的收入"
    },
    {
      "start": 950.74,
      "end": 951.76,
      "text": "就是加法的思维"
    },
    {
      "start": 951.78,
      "end": 954.86,
      "text": "上一天班领一天工资"
    },
    {
      "start": 954.86,
      "end": 956.22,
      "text": "送一单外卖"
    },
    {
      "start": 956.22,
      "end": 957.54,
      "text": "赚一单的跑腿费"
    },
    {
      "start": 957.54,
      "end": 958.84,
      "text": "打扫一个房间"
    },
    {
      "start": 958.84,
      "end": 960.18,
      "text": "拿一份报酬"
    },
    {
      "start": 960.18,
      "end": 961.44,
      "text": "那么做十份的活"
    },
    {
      "start": 961.44,
      "end": 962.22,
      "text": "拿十份的钱"
    },
    {
      "start": 962.22,
      "end": 963.82,
      "text": "多做一份就多一份"
    },
    {
      "start": 963.82,
      "end": 966.98,
      "text": "收入和劳动之间的大体"
    },
    {
      "start": 966.98,
      "end": 969.2,
      "text": "就是一种线性叠加的关系"
    },
    {
      "start": 969.2,
      "end": 971.34,
      "text": "甚至于说这个关系"
    },
    {
      "start": 971.34,
      "end": 974.32,
      "text": "也是在现代社会才形成的"
    },
    {
      "start": 974.32,
      "end": 977.2,
      "text": "所以我们的老一辈的家人"
    },
    {
      "start": 977.2,
      "end": 979.78,
      "text": "非常的看重铁饭碗"
    },
    {
      "start": 979.78,
      "end": 981.76,
      "text": "看重固定收入这种东西"
    },
    {
      "start": 981.78,
      "end": 984.8,
      "text": "因为在他们的那个时代"
    },
    {
      "start": 984.8,
      "end": 988.06,
      "text": "就几十年甚至上百年之前"
    },
    {
      "start": 988.06,
      "end": 992.78,
      "text": "我们做加法都是一件非常难的事情"
    },
    {
      "start": 992.78,
      "end": 995.46,
      "text": "因为古代他上班族本身"
    },
    {
      "start": 995.46,
      "end": 996.64,
      "text": "就是非常稀缺的人"
    },
    {
      "start": 996.64,
      "end": 998.96,
      "text": "你今天上一天班"
    },
    {
      "start": 998.96,
      "end": 1001.2,
      "text": "上一个月你工资到账"
    },
    {
      "start": 1001.2,
      "end": 1003.28,
      "text": "你工作12个月"
    },
    {
      "start": 1003.28,
      "end": 1005.12,
      "text": "那么大致就是12个月的收入"
    },
    {
      "start": 1005.12,
      "end": 1008.16,
      "text": "所以在扣掉开销之后"
    },
    {
      "start": 1008.16,
      "end": 1008.78,
      "text": "还有结余"
    },
    {
      "start": 1008.78,
      "end": 1010.8,
      "text": "理论上就可以把这个月剩下的钱"
    },
    {
      "start": 1010.8,
      "end": 1011.76,
      "text": "和下个月剩下的钱"
    },
    {
      "start": 1011.78,
      "end": 1012.9,
      "text": "不断的相加"
    },
    {
      "start": 1012.9,
      "end": 1014.82,
      "text": "然后我们现在又有银行"
    },
    {
      "start": 1014.82,
      "end": 1015.3,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1015.3,
      "end": 1018.5,
      "text": "银行的体系能够安全的保存"
    },
    {
      "start": 1018.5,
      "end": 1020.14,
      "text": "货币也相对标准化"
    },
    {
      "start": 1020.14,
      "end": 1021.42,
      "text": "产权也相对清晰"
    },
    {
      "start": 1021.42,
      "end": 1022.74,
      "text": "合同能够被执行"
    },
    {
      "start": 1022.74,
      "end": 1025.74,
      "text": "工资能够按固定的周期去支付"
    },
    {
      "start": 1025.74,
      "end": 1027.68,
      "text": "所以我们就会形成一种感觉"
    },
    {
      "start": 1027.68,
      "end": 1029.32,
      "text": "就是只要持续工作"
    },
    {
      "start": 1029.32,
      "end": 1032.78,
      "text": "财富就可以一笔一笔的往上累积"
    },
    {
      "start": 1033.38,
      "end": 1035.54,
      "text": "但是对于老一辈人来讲"
    },
    {
      "start": 1035.54,
      "end": 1037.64,
      "text": "甚至是在农业社会的人来讲"
    },
    {
      "start": 1037.64,
      "end": 1039.42,
      "text": "劳动和财富之间"
    },
    {
      "start": 1039.42,
      "end": 1041.14,
      "text": "就很难形成这样的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1041.14,
      "end": 1042.22,
      "text": "稳定的线性关系"
    },
    {
      "start": 1042.22,
      "end": 1044.34,
      "text": "我们在过去几千年来"
    },
    {
      "start": 1044.34,
      "end": 1046.76,
      "text": "形成的一种思维就在于"
    },
    {
      "start": 1046.76,
      "end": 1049.34,
      "text": "你今年多种了一亩地"
    },
    {
      "start": 1049.34,
      "end": 1052.54,
      "text": "不代表明年就一定多留下一亩地"
    },
    {
      "start": 1052.54,
      "end": 1053.34,
      "text": "对应的财富"
    },
    {
      "start": 1053.34,
      "end": 1055.78,
      "text": "你的收入很有可能会被"
    },
    {
      "start": 1055.78,
      "end": 1059.22,
      "text": "旱灾洪水病虫这些打掉"
    },
    {
      "start": 1059.22,
      "end": 1060.76,
      "text": "包括赋税和劳逸"
    },
    {
      "start": 1060.76,
      "end": 1062.26,
      "text": "它也有可能会发生变化"
    },
    {
      "start": 1062.26,
      "end": 1063.98,
      "text": "战争政权的更替"
    },
    {
      "start": 1063.98,
      "end": 1065.8,
      "text": "会直接摧毁你过去的积累"
    },
    {
      "start": 1065.8,
      "end": 1068.16,
      "text": "很多家庭辛苦几年"
    },
    {
      "start": 1068.16,
      "end": 1069.26,
      "text": "攒下的一点余量"
    },
    {
      "start": 1069.26,
      "end": 1071.1,
      "text": "一场灾荒就全部消耗"
    },
    {
      "start": 1071.14,
      "end": 1074.06,
      "text": "因此我们人类对于"
    },
    {
      "start": 1074.06,
      "end": 1076.08,
      "text": "大佬的整个构成"
    },
    {
      "start": 1076.08,
      "end": 1077.52,
      "text": "它本身就是家法构成"
    },
    {
      "start": 1077.52,
      "end": 1079.72,
      "text": "甚至于还不如家法的构成"
    },
    {
      "start": 1079.72,
      "end": 1082.02,
      "text": "家法也只是在工业时代之后"
    },
    {
      "start": 1082.02,
      "end": 1082.38,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1082.38,
      "end": 1085.32,
      "text": "我们随着一整个社会的基础设施"
    },
    {
      "start": 1085.32,
      "end": 1086.82,
      "text": "包括稳定的产权"
    },
    {
      "start": 1086.82,
      "end": 1088.9,
      "text": "可靠的货币"
    },
    {
      "start": 1088.9,
      "end": 1091.7,
      "text": "才慢慢开始建立起来的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1091.7,
      "end": 1092.98,
      "text": "所以我们的上一辈"
    },
    {
      "start": 1092.98,
      "end": 1095.78,
      "text": "对于这种铁饭碗固定的收入"
    },
    {
      "start": 1095.78,
      "end": 1097.42,
      "text": "就会非常的看重"
    },
    {
      "start": 1097.42,
      "end": 1098.64,
      "text": "如果你一个年轻"
    },
    {
      "start": 1098.64,
      "end": 1099.68,
      "text": "你说你要去创业"
    },
    {
      "start": 1099.68,
      "end": 1099.9,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1099.9,
      "end": 1100.36,
      "text": "要干嘛"
    },
    {
      "start": 1100.36,
      "end": 1100.86,
      "text": "然后你"
    },
    {
      "start": 1100.86,
      "end": 1101.12,
      "text": "你去做什么"
    },
    {
      "start": 1101.14,
      "end": 1103.94,
      "text": "你甚至抛弃你公务员的岗位"
    },
    {
      "start": 1103.94,
      "end": 1104.58,
      "text": "在他们看来"
    },
    {
      "start": 1104.58,
      "end": 1106.46,
      "text": "就像疯了一样的事情"
    },
    {
      "start": 1106.46,
      "end": 1108.0,
      "text": "那是因为我们在"
    },
    {
      "start": 1108.0,
      "end": 1110.6,
      "text": "现如今的社会"
    },
    {
      "start": 1110.6,
      "end": 1112.22,
      "text": "进化的太快了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1112.22,
      "end": 1113.68,
      "text": "我们从"
    },
    {
      "start": 1113.68,
      "end": 1116.5,
      "text": "也就从近100年来的家法世界"
    },
    {
      "start": 1116.5,
      "end": 1119.0,
      "text": "直接进入到了成法世界"
    },
    {
      "start": 1119.0,
      "end": 1122.26,
      "text": "进入到了成法世界之后"
    },
    {
      "start": 1122.26,
      "end": 1124.06,
      "text": "你的财富就不再只是"
    },
    {
      "start": 1124.06,
      "end": 1125.0,
      "text": "今年加一万"
    },
    {
      "start": 1125.0,
      "end": 1125.98,
      "text": "明年加一万了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1125.98,
      "end": 1127.62,
      "text": "而是变成了一个"
    },
    {
      "start": 1127.62,
      "end": 1130.46,
      "text": "可以自己参与下一轮增长的激素"
    },
    {
      "start": 1130.46,
      "end": 1131.12,
      "text": "从最初的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1131.14,
      "end": 1132.5,
      "text": "对具体的人来讲"
    },
    {
      "start": 1132.5,
      "end": 1133.88,
      "text": "这种惩罚世界"
    },
    {
      "start": 1133.88,
      "end": 1135.42,
      "text": "有你可以开公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 1135.42,
      "end": 1135.86,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1135.86,
      "end": 1137.04,
      "text": "你可以做投资"
    },
    {
      "start": 1137.04,
      "end": 1138.1,
      "text": "加杠杆"
    },
    {
      "start": 1138.1,
      "end": 1140.2,
      "text": "然后形成时间的复利"
    },
    {
      "start": 1140.2,
      "end": 1143.0,
      "text": "所以这就不是过去的家法"
    },
    {
      "start": 1143.0,
      "end": 1144.08,
      "text": "这就变成了惩罚"
    },
    {
      "start": 1144.08,
      "end": 1145.04,
      "text": "因此"
    },
    {
      "start": 1145.04,
      "end": 1146.84,
      "text": "做交易"
    },
    {
      "start": 1146.84,
      "end": 1147.7,
      "text": "做股票"
    },
    {
      "start": 1147.7,
      "end": 1149.1,
      "text": "这件事情本身"
    },
    {
      "start": 1149.1,
      "end": 1151.02,
      "text": "对于大多数人来讲"
    },
    {
      "start": 1151.02,
      "end": 1154.38,
      "text": "就是他人生第一次如此"
    },
    {
      "start": 1154.38,
      "end": 1157.44,
      "text": "直接的进入到了一个惩罚系统"
    },
    {
      "start": 1157.44,
      "end": 1158.28,
      "text": "因为开公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 1158.28,
      "end": 1160.08,
      "text": "这些事情本身"
    },
    {
      "start": 1160.08,
      "end": 1160.34,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1160.34,
      "end": 1161.12,
      "text": "它是有门槛的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1161.14,
      "end": 1164.08,
      "text": "它是需要做出一些努力"
    },
    {
      "start": 1164.08,
      "end": 1165.16,
      "text": "你才能够成的事情"
    },
    {
      "start": 1165.16,
      "end": 1168.0,
      "text": "但是交易就很简单"
    },
    {
      "start": 1168.0,
      "end": 1169.2,
      "text": "你现在开户"
    },
    {
      "start": 1169.2,
      "end": 1171.66,
      "text": "你可能只需要几分钟的时间"
    },
    {
      "start": 1171.66,
      "end": 1173.7,
      "text": "你转进去一笔钱也非常容易"
    },
    {
      "start": 1173.7,
      "end": 1176.16,
      "text": "但一个人在进入市场之前"
    },
    {
      "start": 1176.16,
      "end": 1178.18,
      "text": "你可能已经生活了二三十年"
    },
    {
      "start": 1178.18,
      "end": 1178.62,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1178.62,
      "end": 1180.66,
      "text": "你的整个收入劳动回报"
    },
    {
      "start": 1180.66,
      "end": 1181.76,
      "text": "绝大多数"
    },
    {
      "start": 1181.76,
      "end": 1183.94,
      "text": "它都是在家法世界当中形成的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1183.94,
      "end": 1185.48,
      "text": "那么我们就很自然的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1185.48,
      "end": 1187.56,
      "text": "把这套直觉带了进来"
    },
    {
      "start": 1187.56,
      "end": 1188.68,
      "text": "亏了10%"
    },
    {
      "start": 1188.68,
      "end": 1191.08,
      "text": "你会想着下次赚10%"
    },
    {
      "start": 1191.08,
      "end": 1191.92,
      "text": "不就回来了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1191.92,
      "end": 1192.94,
      "text": "连续亏损"
    },
    {
      "start": 1192.94,
      "end": 1195.18,
      "text": "你会想着再做几次"
    },
    {
      "start": 1195.18,
      "end": 1195.42,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1195.42,
      "end": 1196.44,
      "text": "把前面赚回来"
    },
    {
      "start": 1196.44,
      "end": 1197.66,
      "text": "看见机会更好"
    },
    {
      "start": 1197.66,
      "end": 1199.34,
      "text": "你会觉得多投入一点"
    },
    {
      "start": 1199.34,
      "end": 1200.44,
      "text": "不就多赚了一点"
    },
    {
      "start": 1200.44,
      "end": 1204.74,
      "text": "这些想法在加法世界当中是正常的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1204.74,
      "end": 1208.58,
      "text": "但在乘法世界当中就完全不同"
    },
    {
      "start": 1208.58,
      "end": 1211.28,
      "text": "因为你的每一次的亏损"
    },
    {
      "start": 1211.28,
      "end": 1214.56,
      "text": "它改变的是你下一次交易的基数"
    },
    {
      "start": 1214.56,
      "end": 1216.76,
      "text": "你每一次加杠杆"
    },
    {
      "start": 1216.76,
      "end": 1218.68,
      "text": "也不是简单的多赚一点"
    },
    {
      "start": 1218.68,
      "end": 1220.64,
      "text": "而是同步的放大了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1220.64,
      "end": 1223.0,
      "text": "你整条资金曲线的一个波动"
    },
    {
      "start": 1223.0,
      "end": 1226.52,
      "text": "连续几个看起来不大的百分比的亏损"
    },
    {
      "start": 1226.52,
      "end": 1230.4,
      "text": "在连成之后会形成非常大的累积回撤"
    },
    {
      "start": 1230.4,
      "end": 1233.1,
      "text": "这就是我经常跟你们说的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1233.1,
      "end": 1235.18,
      "text": "避免寡蹭的原因"
    },
    {
      "start": 1235.18,
      "end": 1236.58,
      "text": "所以说到底"
    },
    {
      "start": 1236.58,
      "end": 1240.0,
      "text": "我们人类花了非常漫长的一个时间"
    },
    {
      "start": 1240.0,
      "end": 1242.12,
      "text": "才让普通人普遍拥有了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1242.12,
      "end": 1244.04,
      "text": "稳定的加法累积的能力"
    },
    {
      "start": 1244.04,
      "end": 1245.44,
      "text": "而今天你一个人"
    },
    {
      "start": 1245.44,
      "end": 1247.86,
      "text": "只需用几分钟开一个账户"
    },
    {
      "start": 1247.86,
      "end": 1250.12,
      "text": "就允许进入了乘法系统"
    },
    {
      "start": 1250.12,
      "end": 1251.9,
      "text": "那么制度门槛下降几块"
    },
    {
      "start": 1251.9,
      "end": 1252.68,
      "text": "认知却没有"
    },
    {
      "start": 1252.68,
      "end": 1253.4,
      "text": "同步进化"
    },
    {
      "start": 1253.4,
      "end": 1255.86,
      "text": "我们用了几十年习惯的加法"
    },
    {
      "start": 1255.86,
      "end": 1257.34,
      "text": "在开户的第一天"
    },
    {
      "start": 1257.34,
      "end": 1259.46,
      "text": "你就要开始承担乘法的后果"
    },
    {
      "start": 1259.46,
      "end": 1262.58,
      "text": "这就是我为什么要跟各位"
    },
    {
      "start": 1262.58,
      "end": 1265.64,
      "text": "先花时间讲这个的事情"
    },
    {
      "start": 1265.64,
      "end": 1266.12,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1266.12,
      "end": 1267.1,
      "text": "看似是数学"
    },
    {
      "start": 1267.1,
      "end": 1271.26,
      "text": "但其实是因为我们如果没有完成"
    },
    {
      "start": 1271.26,
      "end": 1273.12,
      "text": "坐标系的切换的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 1273.12,
      "end": 1274.96,
      "text": "我们会不断的用过去"
    },
    {
      "start": 1274.96,
      "end": 1278.28,
      "text": "自己几十年的形成的加法直觉"
    },
    {
      "start": 1278.28,
      "end": 1281.02,
      "text": "去处理一个本质上按乘法运行的账户"
    },
    {
      "start": 1281.02,
      "end": 1282.64,
      "text": "这就很多交易"
    },
    {
      "start": 1282.68,
      "end": 1284.72,
      "text": "错误最深层的一个来源"
    },
    {
      "start": 1284.72,
      "end": 1286.04,
      "text": "亏损20%"
    },
    {
      "start": 1286.04,
      "end": 1288.06,
      "text": "你需要赚25%"
    },
    {
      "start": 1288.06,
      "end": 1289.28,
      "text": "亏损30%"
    },
    {
      "start": 1289.28,
      "end": 1291.8,
      "text": "你需要上涨42.9%"
    },
    {
      "start": 1291.8,
      "end": 1292.92,
      "text": "亏损50%"
    },
    {
      "start": 1292.92,
      "end": 1294.38,
      "text": "你需要上涨100%"
    },
    {
      "start": 1294.38,
      "end": 1295.68,
      "text": "亏损80%"
    },
    {
      "start": 1295.68,
      "end": 1297.44,
      "text": "你需要上涨400%"
    },
    {
      "start": 1297.44,
      "end": 1299.06,
      "text": "亏损是线性往下的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1299.06,
      "end": 1301.46,
      "text": "但回本是加速变难的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1301.46,
      "end": 1304.22,
      "text": "这就是为什么仓位止损最大回撤"
    },
    {
      "start": 1304.22,
      "end": 1307.22,
      "text": "在交易当中如此重要的一个原因"
    },
    {
      "start": 1307.22,
      "end": 1311.44,
      "text": "它就是要保护你的复利基数"
    },
    {
      "start": 1311.44,
      "end": 1312.52,
      "text": "只要你的本金"
    },
    {
      "start": 1312.52,
      "end": 1315.28,
      "text": "在你下一次机会仍然可以作用在本金上"
    },
    {
      "start": 1315.28,
      "end": 1319.0,
      "text": "那么你本金一旦受到不可逆的大幅的损伤"
    },
    {
      "start": 1319.0,
      "end": 1321.02,
      "text": "即使未来出现了同样好的机会"
    },
    {
      "start": 1321.02,
      "end": 1323.76,
      "text": "你的绝对收益能力也已经完全不同了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1323.76,
      "end": 1325.44,
      "text": "当然在乘法世界当中"
    },
    {
      "start": 1325.44,
      "end": 1326.94,
      "text": "除了那些损失"
    },
    {
      "start": 1326.94,
      "end": 1330.08,
      "text": "我们也可以去认识到自己的资金"
    },
    {
      "start": 1330.08,
      "end": 1332.1399999999999,
      "text": "是可以快速放大的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1332.1399999999999,
      "end": 1334.44,
      "text": "因为乘法世界内部"
    },
    {
      "start": 1334.44,
      "end": 1335.92,
      "text": "它还存在很多分层"
    },
    {
      "start": 1335.92,
      "end": 1339.56,
      "text": "但是对于我们绝大多数普通人来讲"
    },
    {
      "start": 1339.56,
      "end": 1341.94,
      "text": "我们是最低的那一层"
    },
    {
      "start": 1341.94,
      "end": 1342.42,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1342.42,
      "end": 1343.78,
      "text": "其实就这个事情"
    },
    {
      "start": 1343.78,
      "end": 1347.42,
      "text": "就跟我们刚才看到的这个数轴是一样的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1347.42,
      "end": 1349.56,
      "text": "我们绝大多数普通人"
    },
    {
      "start": 1349.56,
      "end": 1352.4,
      "text": "基本上是你一开始做投资"
    },
    {
      "start": 1352.4,
      "end": 1355.88,
      "text": "你的资金来源就在于收益率"
    },
    {
      "start": 1355.88,
      "end": 1356.12,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1356.12,
      "end": 1357.28,
      "text": "你本金乘以收益率"
    },
    {
      "start": 1357.28,
      "end": 1359.7,
      "text": "那么我们其实是一个乘号"
    },
    {
      "start": 1359.7,
      "end": 1362.38,
      "text": "就是我们假如就是10乘以100"
    },
    {
      "start": 1362.38,
      "end": 1364.02,
      "text": "就100乘以10"
    },
    {
      "start": 1364.02,
      "end": 1366.7,
      "text": "我们是一个乘号"
    },
    {
      "start": 1366.7,
      "end": 1369.04,
      "text": "然后你1000对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1369.04,
      "end": 1370.76,
      "text": "到100万"
    },
    {
      "start": 1370.76,
      "end": 1372.4,
      "text": "那你又多了一个乘号"
    },
    {
      "start": 1372.42,
      "end": 1373.72,
      "text": "你是两个乘号"
    },
    {
      "start": 1373.72,
      "end": 1375.38,
      "text": "100万到10亿"
    },
    {
      "start": 1375.38,
      "end": 1376.4,
      "text": "你又多一个乘号"
    },
    {
      "start": 1376.4,
      "end": 1377.54,
      "text": "你是三个乘号"
    },
    {
      "start": 1377.54,
      "end": 1379.94,
      "text": "因此这就是变量的区别"
    },
    {
      "start": 1379.94,
      "end": 1381.92,
      "text": "你一个乘号跟三个乘号"
    },
    {
      "start": 1381.92,
      "end": 1383.48,
      "text": "看似只多了两个乘号"
    },
    {
      "start": 1383.48,
      "end": 1384.52,
      "text": "但是对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1384.52,
      "end": 1385.5,
      "text": "你一个乘号的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 1385.5,
      "end": 1388.56,
      "text": "是处在数轴的最左端"
    },
    {
      "start": 1388.56,
      "end": 1391.08,
      "text": "当你有三个乘号的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 1391.08,
      "end": 1392.6,
      "text": "你是数轴的最右端"
    },
    {
      "start": 1392.6,
      "end": 1394.16,
      "text": "而对于我们普通人来讲"
    },
    {
      "start": 1394.16,
      "end": 1396.42,
      "text": "第一个乘号到第二个乘号的区别"
    },
    {
      "start": 1396.42,
      "end": 1397.92,
      "text": "就在于杠杆和资金来源"
    },
    {
      "start": 1397.92,
      "end": 1399.3600000000001,
      "text": "到这一层的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 1399.3600000000001,
      "end": 1400.34,
      "text": "你动的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1400.34,
      "end": 1402.08,
      "text": "它就不再只是你的本金"
    },
    {
      "start": 1402.08,
      "end": 1403.44,
      "text": "所以我们经常说的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1403.44,
      "end": 1404.4,
      "text": "你要去加杠杆"
    },
    {
      "start": 1404.4,
      "end": 1405.1,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1405.1,
      "end": 1406.56,
      "text": "要去做股指期货"
    },
    {
      "start": 1406.56,
      "end": 1408.18,
      "text": "没有人会去拿他本金"
    },
    {
      "start": 1408.18,
      "end": 1409.34,
      "text": "去做股指期货的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1409.34,
      "end": 1411.48,
      "text": "没有人会去拿本金去加杠杆的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1411.48,
      "end": 1414.12,
      "text": "都是拿收益的那一部分去加杠杆"
    },
    {
      "start": 1414.12,
      "end": 1417.18,
      "text": "包括说还有人会去把这个乘号"
    },
    {
      "start": 1417.18,
      "end": 1421.98,
      "text": "玩做更为牛的像巴菲特那种"
    },
    {
      "start": 1421.98,
      "end": 1425.54,
      "text": "就是他为什么是股神"
    },
    {
      "start": 1425.54,
      "end": 1428.62,
      "text": "我会在后面跟各位讲"
    },
    {
      "start": 1428.62,
      "end": 1429.9,
      "text": "其他内容的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 1429.9,
      "end": 1431.24,
      "text": "会具体去聊巴菲特"
    },
    {
      "start": 1431.24,
      "end": 1431.96,
      "text": "我先"
    },
    {
      "start": 1432.08,
      "end": 1433.28,
      "text": "跟各位简单说一下"
    },
    {
      "start": 1433.28,
      "end": 1434.72,
      "text": "就是巴菲特最牛的是"
    },
    {
      "start": 1434.72,
      "end": 1438.1,
      "text": "他长期是拥有着一笔成本"
    },
    {
      "start": 1438.1,
      "end": 1440.1399999999999,
      "text": "非常低的可以拿去投资的钱"
    },
    {
      "start": 1440.1399999999999,
      "end": 1442.44,
      "text": "也就是他的保险业务"
    },
    {
      "start": 1442.44,
      "end": 1445.24,
      "text": "他会先收到保费"
    },
    {
      "start": 1445.24,
      "end": 1446.72,
      "text": "然后才赔付"
    },
    {
      "start": 1446.72,
      "end": 1448.38,
      "text": "这中间的沉淀资金"
    },
    {
      "start": 1448.38,
      "end": 1449.28,
      "text": "可以用于投资"
    },
    {
      "start": 1449.28,
      "end": 1453.2,
      "text": "那么他就可以拿很低成本的钱"
    },
    {
      "start": 1453.2,
      "end": 1454.96,
      "text": "去做高股息资产"
    },
    {
      "start": 1454.96,
      "end": 1457.82,
      "text": "这种就是调用自由资本"
    },
    {
      "start": 1457.82,
      "end": 1459.54,
      "text": "加上外部资本"
    },
    {
      "start": 1459.54,
      "end": 1461.3,
      "text": "然后乘以资本回报率"
    },
    {
      "start": 1461.3,
      "end": 1462.04,
      "text": "再减去"
    },
    {
      "start": 1462.08,
      "end": 1463.12,
      "text": "融资成本"
    },
    {
      "start": 1463.12,
      "end": 1465.32,
      "text": "所以巴菲特他本质上做的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1465.32,
      "end": 1465.96,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1465.96,
      "end": 1467.04,
      "text": "能做这么久"
    },
    {
      "start": 1467.04,
      "end": 1467.88,
      "text": "也是因为"
    },
    {
      "start": 1467.88,
      "end": 1469.92,
      "text": "他对于一般人来讲"
    },
    {
      "start": 1469.92,
      "end": 1470.98,
      "text": "我们可能是两个乘号"
    },
    {
      "start": 1470.98,
      "end": 1471.92,
      "text": "但对于巴菲特来讲"
    },
    {
      "start": 1471.92,
      "end": 1472.92,
      "text": "他是三个乘号"
    },
    {
      "start": 1472.92,
      "end": 1474.94,
      "text": "而再到另一层"
    },
    {
      "start": 1474.94,
      "end": 1477.28,
      "text": "就那些特别牛逼的企业家"
    },
    {
      "start": 1477.28,
      "end": 1478.82,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1478.82,
      "end": 1479.98,
      "text": "特别成功的企业家"
    },
    {
      "start": 1479.98,
      "end": 1481.88,
      "text": "那么他们还多一个乘号"
    },
    {
      "start": 1481.88,
      "end": 1482.94,
      "text": "那么就所有缺"
    },
    {
      "start": 1482.94,
      "end": 1485.16,
      "text": "因为你如果看他拿工资的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 1485.16,
      "end": 1487.34,
      "text": "这种工资已经不是变量了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1487.34,
      "end": 1488.3,
      "text": "他的财富大体"
    },
    {
      "start": 1488.3,
      "end": 1491.58,
      "text": "等于持股比例乘以企业价值"
    },
    {
      "start": 1491.58,
      "end": 1492.06,
      "text": "你只要拿工资的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 1492.08,
      "end": 1494.3600000000001,
      "text": "企业从10亿做到100亿"
    },
    {
      "start": 1494.3600000000001,
      "end": 1496.8,
      "text": "并不需要把自己的工作时间增加10倍"
    },
    {
      "start": 1496.8,
      "end": 1497.3600000000001,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1497.3600000000001,
      "end": 1499.78,
      "text": "因为放大的是产权"
    },
    {
      "start": 1499.78,
      "end": 1503.8,
      "text": "所以再到我们现如今的AI时代"
    },
    {
      "start": 1503.8,
      "end": 1506.62,
      "text": "你一个三两年的公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 1506.62,
      "end": 1508.76,
      "text": "然后估值上万亿"
    },
    {
      "start": 1508.76,
      "end": 1510.8,
      "text": "我们现如今的社会就这个样子"
    },
    {
      "start": 1510.8,
      "end": 1512.4,
      "text": "你从几十年前"
    },
    {
      "start": 1512.4,
      "end": 1514.54,
      "text": "我们还在加法世界"
    },
    {
      "start": 1514.54,
      "end": 1515.8600000000001,
      "text": "到现在惩罚世界"
    },
    {
      "start": 1515.8600000000001,
      "end": 1516.88,
      "text": "惩罚世界到现在"
    },
    {
      "start": 1516.88,
      "end": 1517.5,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1517.5,
      "end": 1520.44,
      "text": "后面多加了很多个乘号"
    },
    {
      "start": 1520.44,
      "end": 1521.46,
      "text": "平台公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 1521.46,
      "end": 1522.0,
      "text": "用户"
    },
    {
      "start": 1522.0,
      "end": 1523.72,
      "text": "数去乘以频率"
    },
    {
      "start": 1523.72,
      "end": 1524.84,
      "text": "乘以变现能力"
    },
    {
      "start": 1524.84,
      "end": 1526.6,
      "text": "再乘以市场的估值"
    },
    {
      "start": 1526.6,
      "end": 1529.48,
      "text": "就只之间的几个变量"
    },
    {
      "start": 1529.48,
      "end": 1530.68,
      "text": "就会互相的推动"
    },
    {
      "start": 1530.68,
      "end": 1532.98,
      "text": "那么到这一层的整个跨度"
    },
    {
      "start": 1532.98,
      "end": 1534.54,
      "text": "就会变得非常非常夸张"
    },
    {
      "start": 1534.54,
      "end": 1537.06,
      "text": "但对于我们普通人来讲"
    },
    {
      "start": 1537.06,
      "end": 1538.56,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1538.56,
      "end": 1540.62,
      "text": "我们先不用好高骛远的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1540.62,
      "end": 1542.58,
      "text": "去看后面这么多的乘号"
    },
    {
      "start": 1542.58,
      "end": 1544.1,
      "text": "我们需要先认清楚"
    },
    {
      "start": 1544.1,
      "end": 1545.46,
      "text": "自己在哪一层"
    },
    {
      "start": 1545.46,
      "end": 1547.78,
      "text": "对于我们大多数普通人来讲"
    },
    {
      "start": 1547.78,
      "end": 1549.84,
      "text": "其实我们最基本的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1549.84,
      "end": 1551.48,
      "text": "也就是本金乘以收益率"
    },
    {
      "start": 1551.48,
      "end": 1552.1,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1552.1,
      "end": 1554.1399999999999,
      "text": "至于其他的倍数"
    },
    {
      "start": 1554.1399999999999,
      "end": 1555.38,
      "text": "创始人股权"
    },
    {
      "start": 1555.38,
      "end": 1556.7,
      "text": "或者是估值倍数"
    },
    {
      "start": 1556.7,
      "end": 1557.26,
      "text": "这些东西"
    },
    {
      "start": 1557.26,
      "end": 1558.8,
      "text": "它就不在我们的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1558.8,
      "end": 1560.6399999999999,
      "text": "这一层的资源当中"
    },
    {
      "start": 1560.6399999999999,
      "end": 1562.72,
      "text": "所以对于很多人"
    },
    {
      "start": 1562.72,
      "end": 1565.26,
      "text": "很多我认识的一些年轻人"
    },
    {
      "start": 1565.26,
      "end": 1566.66,
      "text": "他们想要全职去炒股"
    },
    {
      "start": 1566.66,
      "end": 1567.9,
      "text": "我说我们现在"
    },
    {
      "start": 1567.9,
      "end": 1569.1,
      "text": "其实最简单"
    },
    {
      "start": 1569.1,
      "end": 1570.66,
      "text": "就是我们现在只有一个乘号"
    },
    {
      "start": 1570.66,
      "end": 1572.52,
      "text": "你只有一个乘号的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 1572.52,
      "end": 1575.4,
      "text": "你是还是要去做加法收入的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1575.4,
      "end": 1576.98,
      "text": "因为加法收入"
    },
    {
      "start": 1576.98,
      "end": 1578.6,
      "text": "它是很多普通人"
    },
    {
      "start": 1578.6,
      "end": 1581.3600000000001,
      "text": "去承受乘法波动的一个底气"
    },
    {
      "start": 1581.48,
      "end": 1583.5,
      "text": "你一个乘号变成两个乘号之后"
    },
    {
      "start": 1583.5,
      "end": 1584.9,
      "text": "你自然就不会是普通人"
    },
    {
      "start": 1584.9,
      "end": 1586.62,
      "text": "有一份稳定的工资"
    },
    {
      "start": 1586.62,
      "end": 1588.9,
      "text": "一份持续经营产生的现金流"
    },
    {
      "start": 1588.9,
      "end": 1591.48,
      "text": "或者是其他相对稳定的收入来源"
    },
    {
      "start": 1591.48,
      "end": 1591.94,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1591.94,
      "end": 1593.88,
      "text": "这就意味着你可以不用"
    },
    {
      "start": 1593.88,
      "end": 1597.06,
      "text": "每天股市上都要给你去发工资"
    },
    {
      "start": 1597.06,
      "end": 1599.8,
      "text": "如果今天没有符合的交易机会"
    },
    {
      "start": 1599.8,
      "end": 1600.92,
      "text": "你可以不交易"
    },
    {
      "start": 1600.92,
      "end": 1603.26,
      "text": "市场如果处于你看不懂的状态"
    },
    {
      "start": 1603.26,
      "end": 1604.44,
      "text": "你可以继续等"
    },
    {
      "start": 1604.44,
      "end": 1605.7,
      "text": "你不用着急"
    },
    {
      "start": 1605.7,
      "end": 1607.72,
      "text": "要下个月的房贷"
    },
    {
      "start": 1607.72,
      "end": 1609.06,
      "text": "或者是生活费"
    },
    {
      "start": 1609.06,
      "end": 1611.1,
      "text": "你就需要立马去进行交易"
    },
    {
      "start": 1611.48,
      "end": 1612.8,
      "text": "把钱赚回来"
    },
    {
      "start": 1612.8,
      "end": 1613.02,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1613.02,
      "end": 1615.4,
      "text": "它给的是你可以去承受"
    },
    {
      "start": 1615.4,
      "end": 1617.3600000000001,
      "text": "去等待的一个底气"
    },
    {
      "start": 1617.3600000000001,
      "end": 1620.48,
      "text": "所以这种情况就非常非常的重要"
    },
    {
      "start": 1620.48,
      "end": 1621.8,
      "text": "因为很多的交易者"
    },
    {
      "start": 1621.8,
      "end": 1622.9,
      "text": "最后出问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 1622.9,
      "end": 1625.3,
      "text": "就是因为失去了等待的能力"
    },
    {
      "start": 1625.3,
      "end": 1627.38,
      "text": "因为你的生活现金流"
    },
    {
      "start": 1627.38,
      "end": 1628.38,
      "text": "和你的投资账户"
    },
    {
      "start": 1628.38,
      "end": 1629.7,
      "text": "如果高度绑定的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 1629.7,
      "end": 1631.8,
      "text": "你就会按照市场的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1631.8,
      "end": 1635.46,
      "text": "去要求自己的时间表提供收益"
    },
    {
      "start": 1635.46,
      "end": 1635.8,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1635.8,
      "end": 1636.78,
      "text": "没有机会的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 1636.78,
      "end": 1637.46,
      "text": "你也要做"
    },
    {
      "start": 1637.46,
      "end": 1639.08,
      "text": "亏损就急着回本"
    },
    {
      "start": 1639.08,
      "end": 1640.34,
      "text": "仓位越来越激进"
    },
    {
      "start": 1640.34,
      "end": 1641.46,
      "text": "但是市场"
    },
    {
      "start": 1641.48,
      "end": 1643.76,
      "text": "它绝对不会按照你的房租日"
    },
    {
      "start": 1643.76,
      "end": 1644.66,
      "text": "还款日"
    },
    {
      "start": 1644.66,
      "end": 1646.72,
      "text": "或者是发薪日来运行的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1646.72,
      "end": 1649.7,
      "text": "所以你在进入惩罚世界之后"
    },
    {
      "start": 1649.7,
      "end": 1652.38,
      "text": "你需要稳定的加法现金流"
    },
    {
      "start": 1652.38,
      "end": 1653.42,
      "text": "加法现金流"
    },
    {
      "start": 1653.42,
      "end": 1655.66,
      "text": "就可以让你有能力不追高"
    },
    {
      "start": 1655.66,
      "end": 1656.58,
      "text": "有能力空仓"
    },
    {
      "start": 1656.58,
      "end": 1659.48,
      "text": "有能力去接受一次的止损"
    },
    {
      "start": 1659.48,
      "end": 1660.24,
      "text": "也有能力"
    },
    {
      "start": 1660.24,
      "end": 1663.6399999999999,
      "text": "等到真正属于你自己体系的机会"
    },
    {
      "start": 1663.6399999999999,
      "end": 1665.56,
      "text": "所以我们可以继续来聊一下"
    },
    {
      "start": 1665.56,
      "end": 1666.4,
      "text": "惩罚基础"
    },
    {
      "start": 1666.4,
      "end": 1669.84,
      "text": "这其实是一个非常有意思的事情"
    },
    {
      "start": 1669.84,
      "end": 1671.46,
      "text": "因为惩罚基础"
    },
    {
      "start": 1671.48,
      "end": 1673.92,
      "text": "有一个我们不太容易察觉的地方"
    },
    {
      "start": 1673.92,
      "end": 1674.66,
      "text": "就是概率"
    },
    {
      "start": 1674.66,
      "end": 1676.82,
      "text": "假设完成一件事情"
    },
    {
      "start": 1676.82,
      "end": 1678.5,
      "text": "需要三个独立环节"
    },
    {
      "start": 1678.5,
      "end": 1681.38,
      "text": "每个环节的成功率都是90%"
    },
    {
      "start": 1681.38,
      "end": 1681.76,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1681.76,
      "end": 1683.3600000000001,
      "text": "你是否会直觉的认为"
    },
    {
      "start": 1683.3600000000001,
      "end": 1684.7,
      "text": "每一步都有九成的把握"
    },
    {
      "start": 1684.7,
      "end": 1685.7,
      "text": "整体应该会很高"
    },
    {
      "start": 1685.7,
      "end": 1687.8600000000001,
      "text": "但三个环节全部成功"
    },
    {
      "start": 1687.8600000000001,
      "end": 1690.1399999999999,
      "text": "需要0.9连成三次"
    },
    {
      "start": 1690.1399999999999,
      "end": 1693.2,
      "text": "结果就是72.9%"
    },
    {
      "start": 1693.2,
      "end": 1694.12,
      "text": "环节越多"
    },
    {
      "start": 1694.12,
      "end": 1695.32,
      "text": "联合成功率越低"
    },
    {
      "start": 1695.32,
      "end": 1696.98,
      "text": "十个环节当中"
    },
    {
      "start": 1696.98,
      "end": 1699.76,
      "text": "每个都有90%的可靠率"
    },
    {
      "start": 1699.76,
      "end": 1701.1,
      "text": "但你串连在一起"
    },
    {
      "start": 1701.1,
      "end": 1704.22,
      "text": "大约只有34.8%的几率"
    },
    {
      "start": 1704.22,
      "end": 1707.24,
      "text": "哪怕是成功率99%"
    },
    {
      "start": 1707.24,
      "end": 1711.1799999999998,
      "text": "如果你把它环节增加到100个"
    },
    {
      "start": 1711.1799999999998,
      "end": 1715.3400000000001,
      "text": "你最后大约也只有36.6%的成功率"
    },
    {
      "start": 1715.3400000000001,
      "end": 1718.1799999999998,
      "text": "就是这种复杂的系统"
    },
    {
      "start": 1718.1799999999998,
      "end": 1721.3400000000001,
      "text": "会经常让你的大脑产生"
    },
    {
      "start": 1721.3400000000001,
      "end": 1722.8400000000001,
      "text": "不一样的一个直觉"
    },
    {
      "start": 1722.8400000000001,
      "end": 1725.76,
      "text": "而我们所做的金融工程"
    },
    {
      "start": 1725.76,
      "end": 1726.38,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1726.38,
      "end": 1727.22,
      "text": "金融风险"
    },
    {
      "start": 1727.22,
      "end": 1729.3,
      "text": "甚至保险精算"
    },
    {
      "start": 1729.3,
      "end": 1730.1599999999999,
      "text": "以及非常"
    },
    {
      "start": 1730.1599999999999,
      "end": 1731.9,
      "text": "很多复杂系统的工具"
    },
    {
      "start": 1731.9,
      "end": 1733.8600000000001,
      "text": "它本质上都是这种惩罚结构的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1733.8600000000001,
      "end": 1735.1,
      "text": "这就说明了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1735.1,
      "end": 1737.98,
      "text": "很多人在做交易的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 1737.98,
      "end": 1740.4,
      "text": "其实是会出现很多的问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 1740.4,
      "end": 1742.46,
      "text": "就比如说是你判断对方向"
    },
    {
      "start": 1742.46,
      "end": 1742.78,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1742.78,
      "end": 1743.44,
      "text": "选对标的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1743.44,
      "end": 1746.04,
      "text": "进场十点合适"
    },
    {
      "start": 1746.04,
      "end": 1747.28,
      "text": "中途拿得住"
    },
    {
      "start": 1747.28,
      "end": 1748.52,
      "text": "你最后还卖得对"
    },
    {
      "start": 1748.52,
      "end": 1750.6399999999999,
      "text": "这就是五个环节了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1750.6399999999999,
      "end": 1753.6399999999999,
      "text": "假设你每个环节都有九成的把握"
    },
    {
      "start": 1753.6399999999999,
      "end": 1754.98,
      "text": "你五个环节连成下来"
    },
    {
      "start": 1754.98,
      "end": 1757.06,
      "text": "也只剩不到六成的成功率"
    },
    {
      "start": 1757.06,
      "end": 1759.44,
      "text": "所以很多人复盘的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 1759.44,
      "end": 1761.9,
      "text": "会觉得自己明明每一队都判断对了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1761.9,
      "end": 1763.22,
      "text": "结果却并不理想"
    },
    {
      "start": 1763.22,
      "end": 1764.94,
      "text": "因为在串联结构里面"
    },
    {
      "start": 1764.94,
      "end": 1766.92,
      "text": "九成它根本就不是一个高分项"
    },
    {
      "start": 1766.92,
      "end": 1769.76,
      "text": "包括说从自然世界当中"
    },
    {
      "start": 1769.76,
      "end": 1770.88,
      "text": "对我们去看的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 1770.88,
      "end": 1773.0,
      "text": "一个细胞可能只有微米级"
    },
    {
      "start": 1773.0,
      "end": 1774.22,
      "text": "一个猫呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 1774.22,
      "end": 1775.5,
      "text": "它有几十厘米"
    },
    {
      "start": 1775.5,
      "end": 1777.62,
      "text": "一个人是一米多两米"
    },
    {
      "start": 1777.62,
      "end": 1779.6599999999999,
      "text": "当然两米已经非常高了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1779.6599999999999,
      "end": 1780.44,
      "text": "就一到两米"
    },
    {
      "start": 1780.44,
      "end": 1783.7,
      "text": "那么大型动物可以达到好几米"
    },
    {
      "start": 1783.7,
      "end": 1786.22,
      "text": "而有一些行星"
    },
    {
      "start": 1786.22,
      "end": 1786.56,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1786.56,
      "end": 1788.28,
      "text": "它整体的一个尺度"
    },
    {
      "start": 1788.28,
      "end": 1789.42,
      "text": "可以延伸到"
    },
    {
      "start": 1789.44,
      "end": 1790.6799999999998,
      "text": "几亿公里以上"
    },
    {
      "start": 1790.6799999999998,
      "end": 1792.62,
      "text": "如果把它们全部放在"
    },
    {
      "start": 1792.62,
      "end": 1794.22,
      "text": "普通的线性竖轴上面"
    },
    {
      "start": 1794.22,
      "end": 1796.72,
      "text": "微观世界几乎被压缩到一个点"
    },
    {
      "start": 1796.72,
      "end": 1798.22,
      "text": "我们就完全看不到"
    },
    {
      "start": 1798.22,
      "end": 1800.78,
      "text": "这就说明在尺度问题上"
    },
    {
      "start": 1800.78,
      "end": 1803.3600000000001,
      "text": "其实我们去问差多少"
    },
    {
      "start": 1803.3600000000001,
      "end": 1805.1399999999999,
      "text": "它是没有太大意义的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1805.1399999999999,
      "end": 1806.3200000000002,
      "text": "差多少倍"
    },
    {
      "start": 1806.3200000000002,
      "end": 1808.0,
      "text": "它才能够决定"
    },
    {
      "start": 1808.0,
      "end": 1810.6,
      "text": "两个对象是不是处在同一层级"
    },
    {
      "start": 1810.6,
      "end": 1812.94,
      "text": "猫和狗的体型可能差一两倍"
    },
    {
      "start": 1812.94,
      "end": 1815.1,
      "text": "它们处在相近的一个尺度"
    },
    {
      "start": 1815.1,
      "end": 1816.78,
      "text": "但猫和细菌"
    },
    {
      "start": 1816.78,
      "end": 1818.7,
      "text": "即使它们绝对长度"
    },
    {
      "start": 1818.7,
      "end": 1819.42,
      "text": "只差一倍"
    },
    {
      "start": 1819.44,
      "end": 1820.98,
      "text": "相差了几十厘米"
    },
    {
      "start": 1820.98,
      "end": 1824.06,
      "text": "但实际上却可能相差了几十万倍"
    },
    {
      "start": 1824.06,
      "end": 1827.78,
      "text": "所以我们要去了解乘法语言"
    },
    {
      "start": 1827.78,
      "end": 1828.06,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1828.06,
      "end": 1830.1399999999999,
      "text": "我们说一个东西高了一个数量级"
    },
    {
      "start": 1830.1399999999999,
      "end": 1831.98,
      "text": "并不是增加了一个固定数"
    },
    {
      "start": 1831.98,
      "end": 1833.3600000000001,
      "text": "而是放大了十倍"
    },
    {
      "start": 1833.3600000000001,
      "end": 1834.74,
      "text": "两个数量级是一百倍"
    },
    {
      "start": 1834.74,
      "end": 1836.56,
      "text": "三个数量级是一千倍"
    },
    {
      "start": 1836.56,
      "end": 1841.94,
      "text": "这是我们需要去从加法当中去改变的一个想法"
    },
    {
      "start": 1841.94,
      "end": 1842.48,
      "text": "因此呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 1842.48,
      "end": 1846.6,
      "text": "我会跟各位讲一个比较有意思的统计现象"
    },
    {
      "start": 1846.6,
      "end": 1848.1,
      "text": "就是本福特定律"
    },
    {
      "start": 1848.1,
      "end": 1849.28,
      "text": "就在很多自然行程中"
    },
    {
      "start": 1849.28,
      "end": 1852.62,
      "text": "跨越多个数量级的数据当中"
    },
    {
      "start": 1852.62,
      "end": 1856.24,
      "text": "首位数字并不是从一到九平均出现的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1856.24,
      "end": 1859.8400000000001,
      "text": "数字一它作为首位出现的比率"
    },
    {
      "start": 1859.8400000000001,
      "end": 1861.88,
      "text": "往往最高大约是百分之三十"
    },
    {
      "start": 1861.88,
      "end": 1863.92,
      "text": "数字越大出现的比率越低"
    },
    {
      "start": 1863.92,
      "end": 1865.8400000000001,
      "text": "九的概率"
    },
    {
      "start": 1865.8400000000001,
      "end": 1867.92,
      "text": "九作为首位的概率"
    },
    {
      "start": 1867.92,
      "end": 1869.0,
      "text": "它是最小的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1869.0,
      "end": 1872.7,
      "text": "因为如果一个数量按照比例增长"
    },
    {
      "start": 1872.7,
      "end": 1874.72,
      "text": "从一到二意味着翻倍"
    },
    {
      "start": 1874.72,
      "end": 1876.76,
      "text": "从二到三意味增加百分之五十"
    },
    {
      "start": 1876.76,
      "end": 1877.74,
      "text": "从八到九"
    },
    {
      "start": 1877.74,
      "end": 1879.26,
      "text": "那么只增加了百分之五十"
    },
    {
      "start": 1879.28,
      "end": 1881.2,
      "text": "甚至十二点五左右"
    },
    {
      "start": 1881.2,
      "end": 1884.08,
      "text": "所以对于连续的乘法增长的过程来讲"
    },
    {
      "start": 1884.08,
      "end": 1887.28,
      "text": "它在低首位数字区间停留的时间"
    },
    {
      "start": 1887.28,
      "end": 1889.1599999999999,
      "text": "天然就更长"
    },
    {
      "start": 1889.1599999999999,
      "end": 1890.8,
      "text": "所以它本质呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 1890.8,
      "end": 1893.72,
      "text": "就反映的就是一种尺度不变性"
    },
    {
      "start": 1893.72,
      "end": 1896.6799999999998,
      "text": "如果我们把一组符合条件的数据"
    },
    {
      "start": 1896.6799999999998,
      "end": 1898.3200000000002,
      "text": "从人民币换成美元"
    },
    {
      "start": 1898.3200000000002,
      "end": 1900.04,
      "text": "从公里数换成英里数"
    },
    {
      "start": 1900.04,
      "end": 1902.76,
      "text": "所有数字同时乘以一个固定的常数"
    },
    {
      "start": 1902.76,
      "end": 1904.8400000000001,
      "text": "那么首位数字的分布规律"
    },
    {
      "start": 1904.8400000000001,
      "end": 1906.1599999999999,
      "text": "它仍然可以保持"
    },
    {
      "start": 1906.1599999999999,
      "end": 1908.92,
      "text": "这就可以为我们建立一个"
    },
    {
      "start": 1908.92,
      "end": 1910.3400000000001,
      "text": "非常重要的直觉"
    },
    {
      "start": 1910.3400000000001,
      "end": 1914.04,
      "text": "就是在很多跨数量级的数据里面"
    },
    {
      "start": 1914.04,
      "end": 1915.46,
      "text": "真正自然均匀"
    },
    {
      "start": 1915.46,
      "end": 1918.46,
      "text": "它不是线性距离上的均匀"
    },
    {
      "start": 1918.46,
      "end": 1920.4,
      "text": "而是对数尺度上的均匀"
    },
    {
      "start": 1920.4,
      "end": 1923.44,
      "text": "加法世界均匀对应的是平易不变"
    },
    {
      "start": 1923.44,
      "end": 1924.9,
      "text": "乘法世界呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 1924.9,
      "end": 1927.76,
      "text": "是更自然的一个均匀"
    },
    {
      "start": 1927.76,
      "end": 1930.02,
      "text": "则对数它是缩放不变的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1930.02,
      "end": 1933.24,
      "text": "所以我们可以跟各位聊一下对数"
    },
    {
      "start": 1933.24,
      "end": 1935.98,
      "text": "我们刚讲了加法世界乘法世界"
    },
    {
      "start": 1935.98,
      "end": 1936.1799999999998,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1936.1799999999998,
      "end": 1936.98,
      "text": "都是小学知识"
    },
    {
      "start": 1936.98,
      "end": 1938.9,
      "text": "对数是应该是初中的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1938.92,
      "end": 1940.72,
      "text": "反正都不懒"
    },
    {
      "start": 1940.72,
      "end": 1942.6399999999999,
      "text": "我们应该也很好理解"
    },
    {
      "start": 1942.6399999999999,
      "end": 1943.54,
      "text": "对数呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 1943.54,
      "end": 1946.7,
      "text": "它其实解决的也是乘法的东西"
    },
    {
      "start": 1946.7,
      "end": 1952.3200000000002,
      "text": "因为例如我们要算一个比较大的数"
    },
    {
      "start": 1952.3200000000002,
      "end": 1952.8,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1952.8,
      "end": 1954.52,
      "text": "我们算四位数乘以四位数"
    },
    {
      "start": 1954.52,
      "end": 1957.42,
      "text": "你如果要自己比算的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 1957.42,
      "end": 1958.3400000000001,
      "text": "你可能要算"
    },
    {
      "start": 1958.3400000000001,
      "end": 1961.04,
      "text": "要算的时间会比较久的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1961.04,
      "end": 1963.96,
      "text": "绝对不会是很快的算出来"
    },
    {
      "start": 1963.96,
      "end": 1965.74,
      "text": "但我们人生对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1965.74,
      "end": 1968.4,
      "text": "科学已经发展了几百年"
    },
    {
      "start": 1968.92,
      "end": 1972.5,
      "text": "我们在16世纪17世纪的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 1972.5,
      "end": 1974.38,
      "text": "就出现了大航海"
    },
    {
      "start": 1974.38,
      "end": 1978.04,
      "text": "随着整个远洋航行越来越频繁"
    },
    {
      "start": 1978.04,
      "end": 1980.8400000000001,
      "text": "然后航海又需要确定纬度计算航向"
    },
    {
      "start": 1980.8400000000001,
      "end": 1983.4,
      "text": "制作星表地图"
    },
    {
      "start": 1983.4,
      "end": 1984.6799999999998,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1984.6799999999998,
      "end": 1986.6799999999998,
      "text": "那个时候就需要天文测量"
    },
    {
      "start": 1986.6799999999998,
      "end": 1989.8400000000001,
      "text": "那天文测量整个数据又非常非常夸张"
    },
    {
      "start": 1989.8400000000001,
      "end": 1991.5,
      "text": "那个时候又没有计算器"
    },
    {
      "start": 1991.5,
      "end": 1993.28,
      "text": "所以计算那种数字呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 1993.28,
      "end": 1997.3,
      "text": "基本上你可能一辈子都算不了一个超大的数"
    },
    {
      "start": 1997.3,
      "end": 1997.94,
      "text": "所以"
    },
    {
      "start": 1998.92,
      "end": 2000.06,
      "text": "那个时候对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2000.06,
      "end": 2003.6,
      "text": "大家就发现了一个非常好的一个规律"
    },
    {
      "start": 2003.6,
      "end": 2008.4,
      "text": "就比如说我们先看一下2048乘以4096"
    },
    {
      "start": 2008.4,
      "end": 2010.38,
      "text": "这就是两个四位数的乘法"
    },
    {
      "start": 2010.38,
      "end": 2013.3200000000002,
      "text": "今天你按一下计算器很快就结束了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2013.3200000000002,
      "end": 2016.38,
      "text": "但如果你是要去靠纸笔的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 2017.4,
      "end": 2019.92,
      "text": "你要做16次的一位数乘法"
    },
    {
      "start": 2019.92,
      "end": 2022.3200000000002,
      "text": "然后再写下四行中间结果"
    },
    {
      "start": 2022.3200000000002,
      "end": 2023.28,
      "text": "再把四行结果"
    },
    {
      "start": 2024.24,
      "end": 2024.54,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2024.54,
      "end": 2026.88,
      "text": "连同所有的进位加在一起"
    },
    {
      "start": 2026.88,
      "end": 2028.24,
      "text": "如果你家有小孩的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 2028.24,
      "end": 2028.88,
      "text": "这种事情"
    },
    {
      "start": 2028.88,
      "end": 2029.72,
      "text": "是蛮头疼的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2029.72,
      "end": 2031.3,
      "text": "因为在小学阶段"
    },
    {
      "start": 2031.3,
      "end": 2033.8,
      "text": "我们算这种大数的乘法"
    },
    {
      "start": 2033.8,
      "end": 2034.94,
      "text": "基本上都会算错"
    },
    {
      "start": 2034.94,
      "end": 2037.6399999999999,
      "text": "这个那如果对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2037.6399999999999,
      "end": 2038.54,
      "text": "放在几百年前"
    },
    {
      "start": 2038.54,
      "end": 2040.88,
      "text": "那么他们是数量会更大"
    },
    {
      "start": 2040.88,
      "end": 2043.06,
      "text": "并且要做很多道题"
    },
    {
      "start": 2043.06,
      "end": 2043.3,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2043.3,
      "end": 2044.8200000000002,
      "text": "甚至要做上万道题"
    },
    {
      "start": 2044.8200000000002,
      "end": 2048.02,
      "text": "因为你推算一个行星的轨迹"
    },
    {
      "start": 2048.02,
      "end": 2048.7200000000003,
      "text": "这种运算"
    },
    {
      "start": 2048.7200000000003,
      "end": 2052.18,
      "text": "你要反复的成百上千次的去竞算"
    },
    {
      "start": 2052.18,
      "end": 2056.76,
      "text": "那么这个对于天文数字的计算量呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2056.76,
      "end": 2058.02,
      "text": "就会非常的夸张"
    },
    {
      "start": 2058.02,
      "end": 2058.68,
      "text": "因此呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2058.68,
      "end": 2062.24,
      "text": "就出现了一个等比数列和等差数列的关系"
    },
    {
      "start": 2062.24,
      "end": 2065.98,
      "text": "我们其实就可以把这两排数列写在一起"
    },
    {
      "start": 2065.98,
      "end": 2066.7,
      "text": "第一行对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2066.7,
      "end": 2068.8,
      "text": "它是124816"
    },
    {
      "start": 2068.8,
      "end": 2071.42,
      "text": "就是你每前进一步乘以2"
    },
    {
      "start": 2071.42,
      "end": 2075.14,
      "text": "那么第二行的规律就是0123456"
    },
    {
      "start": 2075.14,
      "end": 2077.3,
      "text": "就是你每进一步加1就好了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2077.3,
      "end": 2079.3,
      "text": "这种就是相对的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2079.3,
      "end": 2081.92,
      "text": "那么我们就可以推下去"
    },
    {
      "start": 2081.92,
      "end": 2084.26,
      "text": "你到等差11行的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 2084.26,
      "end": 2084.7200000000003,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2084.7200000000003,
      "end": 2087.26,
      "text": "那么它对应的就是2048"
    },
    {
      "start": 2087.26,
      "end": 2088.66,
      "text": "到12行呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2088.68,
      "end": 2090.96,
      "text": "因为2048乘以2就是4096"
    },
    {
      "start": 2090.96,
      "end": 2094.5,
      "text": "所以我们如果算2048乘以4096"
    },
    {
      "start": 2094.5,
      "end": 2097.08,
      "text": "我们就可以直接看到等差11加12"
    },
    {
      "start": 2097.08,
      "end": 2097.98,
      "text": "那么它等于23"
    },
    {
      "start": 2097.98,
      "end": 2100.02,
      "text": "我们就可以直接到看到23行"
    },
    {
      "start": 2100.02,
      "end": 2104.58,
      "text": "23行对应的数字是8388608"
    },
    {
      "start": 2104.58,
      "end": 2106.02,
      "text": "你就可以直接写下来"
    },
    {
      "start": 2106.02,
      "end": 2107.52,
      "text": "但我们需要有一个表"
    },
    {
      "start": 2107.52,
      "end": 2108.9,
      "text": "之前这个表呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2108.9,
      "end": 2110.1,
      "text": "就是对数表"
    },
    {
      "start": 2110.1,
      "end": 2114.0,
      "text": "所以这本来就是一个你要进行大量运算"
    },
    {
      "start": 2114.0,
      "end": 2114.18,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2114.18,
      "end": 2116.6,
      "text": "你要进行16次乘法四位"
    },
    {
      "start": 2116.6,
      "end": 2117.1,
      "text": "敬畏"
    },
    {
      "start": 2117.1,
      "end": 2119.66,
      "text": "然后几分钟的一个四位乘法"
    },
    {
      "start": 2119.66,
      "end": 2123.2799999999997,
      "text": "我们就直接用11加12解决掉了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2123.2799999999997,
      "end": 2124.54,
      "text": "这种就是先转换"
    },
    {
      "start": 2125.54,
      "end": 2126.16,
      "text": "再运算"
    },
    {
      "start": 2126.16,
      "end": 2127.42,
      "text": "然后再转换回来"
    },
    {
      "start": 2127.42,
      "end": 2129.06,
      "text": "这就是对数"
    },
    {
      "start": 2130.06,
      "end": 2132.66,
      "text": "两数相乘变成两个对数相加"
    },
    {
      "start": 2132.66,
      "end": 2135.82,
      "text": "两数相除变成两对数相减"
    },
    {
      "start": 2135.82,
      "end": 2140.02,
      "text": "一个数的n次方变成它的对数乘以n"
    },
    {
      "start": 2140.02,
      "end": 2143.86,
      "text": "一个数开n次方就能够变成它的对数除以n"
    },
    {
      "start": 2143.86,
      "end": 2145.66,
      "text": "所以对数建立的就是"
    },
    {
      "start": 2145.66,
      "end": 2147.88,
      "text": "这种降维大级"
    },
    {
      "start": 2147.88,
      "end": 2148.42,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2148.42,
      "end": 2150.48,
      "text": "乘法降成加法"
    },
    {
      "start": 2150.48,
      "end": 2151.98,
      "text": "除法降成减法"
    },
    {
      "start": 2151.98,
      "end": 2153.7799999999997,
      "text": "乘方降成乘法"
    },
    {
      "start": 2153.7799999999997,
      "end": 2154.82,
      "text": "开方降成除法"
    },
    {
      "start": 2154.82,
      "end": 2157.18,
      "text": "每一次的运算转换"
    },
    {
      "start": 2157.18,
      "end": 2159.84,
      "text": "它的整个难度都是要下降一级的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2159.84,
      "end": 2161.08,
      "text": "且数字越大"
    },
    {
      "start": 2161.08,
      "end": 2162.2200000000003,
      "text": "运算越复杂"
    },
    {
      "start": 2162.2200000000003,
      "end": 2165.48,
      "text": "这种转换的整个价值就变得非常大的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2165.48,
      "end": 2166.54,
      "text": "这套交"
    },
    {
      "start": 2166.54,
      "end": 2168.48,
      "text": "这套机制呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2168.48,
      "end": 2171.42,
      "text": "其实在我们今天交易里面也是非常重要的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2171.42,
      "end": 2173.06,
      "text": "就是对数的收益率"
    },
    {
      "start": 2173.06,
      "end": 2175.42,
      "text": "今天的价格除以昨天价格"
    },
    {
      "start": 2175.42,
      "end": 2175.64,
      "text": "再去买的价格之后呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2175.66,
      "end": 2177.96,
      "text": "就得到当天的对数收益"
    },
    {
      "start": 2177.96,
      "end": 2180.34,
      "text": "它就有两个非常好的一个性质"
    },
    {
      "start": 2180.34,
      "end": 2180.8,
      "text": "第一呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2180.8,
      "end": 2181.6,
      "text": "就是可加性"
    },
    {
      "start": 2181.6,
      "end": 2184.48,
      "text": "多个交易日的对数收益可以直接相加"
    },
    {
      "start": 2184.48,
      "end": 2187.24,
      "text": "然后加出来就是整段区间的一个对数收益"
    },
    {
      "start": 2187.24,
      "end": 2191.46,
      "text": "然后你就不需用去我们一遍一遍做复利的乘法"
    },
    {
      "start": 2191.46,
      "end": 2191.7200000000003,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2191.7200000000003,
      "end": 2193.3,
      "text": "把每天的对数收益加起来"
    },
    {
      "start": 2193.3,
      "end": 2194.2,
      "text": "然后最后还原一次"
    },
    {
      "start": 2194.2,
      "end": 2196.18,
      "text": "就能够得到整段的一个总收益"
    },
    {
      "start": 2196.18,
      "end": 2197.02,
      "text": "第二呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2197.02,
      "end": 2198.44,
      "text": "就是对称性"
    },
    {
      "start": 2198.44,
      "end": 2201.02,
      "text": "普通收益率其实是失衡的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2201.02,
      "end": 2203.7200000000003,
      "text": "涨百分之百和跌百分之五"
    },
    {
      "start": 2203.7200000000003,
      "end": 2205.42,
      "text": "是在数值上完全它不相优"
    },
    {
      "start": 2205.42,
      "end": 2205.88,
      "text": "就回事"
    },
    {
      "start": 2205.88,
      "end": 2207.7799999999997,
      "text": "就我们可以看一下"
    },
    {
      "start": 2207.7799999999997,
      "end": 2208.12,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2208.12,
      "end": 2210.44,
      "text": "这个是我们普通的一个坐标系"
    },
    {
      "start": 2210.44,
      "end": 2214.92,
      "text": "那如果我们把它切换成对数坐标系"
    },
    {
      "start": 2214.92,
      "end": 2217.0,
      "text": "就能完全看见不一样"
    },
    {
      "start": 2217.0,
      "end": 2217.2200000000003,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2217.2200000000003,
      "end": 2218.5,
      "text": "这就是我们能够看见"
    },
    {
      "start": 2218.5,
      "end": 2220.48,
      "text": "你如果切成普通坐标系的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 2220.48,
      "end": 2221.92,
      "text": "这一段的涨幅"
    },
    {
      "start": 2221.92,
      "end": 2222.7,
      "text": "它是更"
    },
    {
      "start": 2222.7,
      "end": 2223.48,
      "text": "斜率是"
    },
    {
      "start": 2223.48,
      "end": 2225.42,
      "text": "是更大的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2225.42,
      "end": 2226.54,
      "text": "我们可以看一下"
    },
    {
      "start": 2226.54,
      "end": 2227.2799999999997,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2227.2799999999997,
      "end": 2228.48,
      "text": "但其实"
    },
    {
      "start": 2228.48,
      "end": 2230.1800000000003,
      "text": "它整个"
    },
    {
      "start": 2230.1800000000003,
      "end": 2231.6400000000003,
      "text": "增长呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2231.6400000000003,
      "end": 2232.66,
      "text": "你看对数坐标"
    },
    {
      "start": 2232.66,
      "end": 2234.2200000000003,
      "text": "你就看到这边的增长"
    },
    {
      "start": 2234.2200000000003,
      "end": 2235.16,
      "text": "它其实是更大的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2235.16,
      "end": 2235.26,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2235.26,
      "end": 2235.4,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2235.4,
      "end": 2235.42,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2235.42,
      "end": 2236.62,
      "text": "这件事情就可以"
    },
    {
      "start": 2236.62,
      "end": 2238.42,
      "text": "在我们做统计的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 2238.42,
      "end": 2238.7200000000003,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2238.7200000000003,
      "end": 2239.3599999999997,
      "text": "可以避免"
    },
    {
      "start": 2239.3599999999997,
      "end": 2242.42,
      "text": "涨跌两侧被系统性的一个扭曲"
    },
    {
      "start": 2242.42,
      "end": 2244.1400000000003,
      "text": "然后它的整体情况呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2244.1400000000003,
      "end": 2245.0,
      "text": "就是我们"
    },
    {
      "start": 2245.0,
      "end": 2247.1800000000003,
      "text": "其实17世纪初"
    },
    {
      "start": 2247.1800000000003,
      "end": 2250.04,
      "text": "苏格兰的数学家约翰纳皮尔"
    },
    {
      "start": 2250.04,
      "end": 2253.5,
      "text": "就把这个问题进一步的推动了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2253.5,
      "end": 2255.8599999999997,
      "text": "因为我们今天学对数"
    },
    {
      "start": 2255.8599999999997,
      "end": 2257.06,
      "text": "通常是先学指数"
    },
    {
      "start": 2257.06,
      "end": 2258.74,
      "text": "10的平方等于100"
    },
    {
      "start": 2258.74,
      "end": 2260.9,
      "text": "然后反过来定义以10为底"
    },
    {
      "start": 2260.9,
      "end": 2262.48,
      "text": "100的对数呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2262.48,
      "end": 2262.98,
      "text": "等于2"
    },
    {
      "start": 2262.98,
      "end": 2265.02,
      "text": "那么这个时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 2265.02,
      "end": 2265.4,
      "text": "我们就能看到"
    },
    {
      "start": 2265.4,
      "end": 2266.9,
      "text": "其实就会有一种感觉"
    },
    {
      "start": 2266.9,
      "end": 2267.94,
      "text": "就好像是对数"
    },
    {
      "start": 2267.94,
      "end": 2269.8599999999997,
      "text": "它是天生的指数的逆运算"
    },
    {
      "start": 2269.8599999999997,
      "end": 2272.16,
      "text": "但是在几百年前"
    },
    {
      "start": 2272.16,
      "end": 2273.26,
      "text": "并不是这个样子"
    },
    {
      "start": 2273.26,
      "end": 2275.3,
      "text": "纳皮尔提出对数的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 2275.3,
      "end": 2276.66,
      "text": "现代的指数记号"
    },
    {
      "start": 2276.66,
      "end": 2278.3599999999997,
      "text": "还没有建立起来"
    },
    {
      "start": 2278.3599999999997,
      "end": 2280.2,
      "text": "他思考问题的方式呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2280.2,
      "end": 2283.46,
      "text": "就来自于连续运动和数列之间的对应关系"
    },
    {
      "start": 2283.46,
      "end": 2284.76,
      "text": "因为对数"
    },
    {
      "start": 2284.76,
      "end": 2287.1800000000003,
      "text": "它最开始并不是为了制造一种"
    },
    {
      "start": 2287.1800000000003,
      "end": 2289.24,
      "text": "更为抽象的数学语言"
    },
    {
      "start": 2289.24,
      "end": 2292.5,
      "text": "它首先其实是在解决一个实际问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 2292.5,
      "end": 2294.74,
      "text": "就是如何把困难的乘法计算"
    },
    {
      "start": 2294.74,
      "end": 2295.38,
      "text": "转换为一个实际问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 2295.38,
      "end": 2296.3599999999997,
      "text": "转换为简单的加法计算"
    },
    {
      "start": 2296.3599999999997,
      "end": 2297.3,
      "text": "纳皮尔呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2297.3,
      "end": 2300.26,
      "text": "就研究这两种不同运动之间的一个对应"
    },
    {
      "start": 2300.26,
      "end": 2304.06,
      "text": "一种是按照相对均匀的方式推进"
    },
    {
      "start": 2304.06,
      "end": 2306.26,
      "text": "另一种是按照比例不断进化"
    },
    {
      "start": 2306.26,
      "end": 2309.2799999999997,
      "text": "然后把这两个过程的位置对应起来"
    },
    {
      "start": 2309.2799999999997,
      "end": 2312.38,
      "text": "就建立了一套连续数值之间的转换关系"
    },
    {
      "start": 2313.04,
      "end": 2313.26,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2313.26,
      "end": 2313.88,
      "text": "一个呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2313.88,
      "end": 2316.2,
      "text": "是一个世界按比例变化"
    },
    {
      "start": 2316.2,
      "end": 2318.92,
      "text": "另一个是世界按固定距离变化"
    },
    {
      "start": 2318.92,
      "end": 2319.62,
      "text": "所以后面"
    },
    {
      "start": 2319.62,
      "end": 2321.8599999999997,
      "text": "法国数学家拉普拉斯"
    },
    {
      "start": 2321.8599999999997,
      "end": 2323.96,
      "text": "就说了一个非常著名的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 2323.96,
      "end": 2325.3599999999997,
      "text": "就是对数通过减少"
    },
    {
      "start": 2325.38,
      "end": 2326.4,
      "text": "减少计算劳作"
    },
    {
      "start": 2326.4,
      "end": 2328.34,
      "text": "让天文学家的寿命延长了一倍"
    },
    {
      "start": 2328.34,
      "end": 2329.92,
      "text": "因为本身天文学"
    },
    {
      "start": 2329.92,
      "end": 2331.46,
      "text": "它是极度依赖数值的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2331.46,
      "end": 2332.3599999999997,
      "text": "行星的位置"
    },
    {
      "start": 2332.3599999999997,
      "end": 2333.7200000000003,
      "text": "轨道角度距离"
    },
    {
      "start": 2333.7200000000003,
      "end": 2334.44,
      "text": "三角函数"
    },
    {
      "start": 2334.44,
      "end": 2335.7799999999997,
      "text": "以及各种的观察参数"
    },
    {
      "start": 2335.7799999999997,
      "end": 2337.26,
      "text": "都需要不断的参与计算"
    },
    {
      "start": 2337.26,
      "end": 2338.76,
      "text": "如果每一步"
    },
    {
      "start": 2338.76,
      "end": 2341.1800000000003,
      "text": "你都要做长乘法或者长除法"
    },
    {
      "start": 2341.1800000000003,
      "end": 2343.12,
      "text": "那么理论的时间呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2343.12,
      "end": 2345.5,
      "text": "就会跨度非常非常的大"
    },
    {
      "start": 2345.5,
      "end": 2346.9,
      "text": "所以对数"
    },
    {
      "start": 2346.9,
      "end": 2349.0,
      "text": "它真正改变的就是"
    },
    {
      "start": 2349.0,
      "end": 2351.34,
      "text": "知识生产的一个效率"
    },
    {
      "start": 2351.34,
      "end": 2352.2,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2352.2,
      "end": 2354.04,
      "text": "把数学的计算"
    },
    {
      "start": 2354.04,
      "end": 2354.98,
      "text": "从几十分钟"
    },
    {
      "start": 2354.98,
      "end": 2355.3599999999997,
      "text": "甚至是"
    },
    {
      "start": 2355.38,
      "end": 2357.5,
      "text": "好多天压缩到几分钟"
    },
    {
      "start": 2357.5,
      "end": 2359.62,
      "text": "再把这种重复"
    },
    {
      "start": 2359.62,
      "end": 2361.7799999999997,
      "text": "几千次上万次的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2361.7799999999997,
      "end": 2362.8199999999997,
      "text": "再进行一个改变"
    },
    {
      "start": 2362.8199999999997,
      "end": 2365.1400000000003,
      "text": "那整体科学的进化速度"
    },
    {
      "start": 2365.1400000000003,
      "end": 2366.08,
      "text": "就非常的快"
    },
    {
      "start": 2366.08,
      "end": 2367.26,
      "text": "因此我们在"
    },
    {
      "start": 2367.26,
      "end": 2369.1,
      "text": "因为计算器是"
    },
    {
      "start": 2369.1,
      "end": 2370.46,
      "text": "现代的一个产物"
    },
    {
      "start": 2370.46,
      "end": 2371.3,
      "text": "在之前"
    },
    {
      "start": 2371.3,
      "end": 2372.5,
      "text": "他们一直用的是"
    },
    {
      "start": 2372.5,
      "end": 2374.2,
      "text": "叫一个计算尺的东西"
    },
    {
      "start": 2374.2,
      "end": 2376.34,
      "text": "这东西我们基本上都没见过"
    },
    {
      "start": 2376.34,
      "end": 2377.5,
      "text": "但是对于一些老"
    },
    {
      "start": 2377.5,
      "end": 2378.1400000000003,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2378.1400000000003,
      "end": 2379.6800000000003,
      "text": "老一辈的数学家来讲"
    },
    {
      "start": 2379.6800000000003,
      "end": 2381.08,
      "text": "他们就用了比较多了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2381.08,
      "end": 2383.1,
      "text": "所以刚才我跟各位"
    },
    {
      "start": 2383.1,
      "end": 2384.2,
      "text": "看一看那些"
    },
    {
      "start": 2384.2,
      "end": 2385.2,
      "text": "普通坐标轴"
    },
    {
      "start": 2385.2,
      "end": 2386.1,
      "text": "和对数坐标轴"
    },
    {
      "start": 2386.1,
      "end": 2386.46,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2386.46,
      "end": 2387.66,
      "text": "它会其实产生"
    },
    {
      "start": 2387.66,
      "end": 2388.8199999999997,
      "text": "一个非常"
    },
    {
      "start": 2388.8199999999997,
      "end": 2390.92,
      "text": "强的视觉误导的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2390.92,
      "end": 2393.52,
      "text": "你越靠后的行情"
    },
    {
      "start": 2393.52,
      "end": 2394.84,
      "text": "因为价格激素越大"
    },
    {
      "start": 2394.84,
      "end": 2396.88,
      "text": "看起来波动越剧烈"
    },
    {
      "start": 2396.88,
      "end": 2398.3599999999997,
      "text": "而早期行情"
    },
    {
      "start": 2398.3599999999997,
      "end": 2399.9,
      "text": "即使发生过"
    },
    {
      "start": 2401.08,
      "end": 2403.2,
      "text": "图形也会被压缩到几乎看不见"
    },
    {
      "start": 2403.2,
      "end": 2406.62,
      "text": "这是我们每一次在牛市当中"
    },
    {
      "start": 2406.62,
      "end": 2409.78,
      "text": "会产生的非常大的一个问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 2409.78,
      "end": 2413.26,
      "text": "那么对数坐标就可以解决这个问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 2413.26,
      "end": 2416.92,
      "text": "这是我们投资者真正要关心的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2416.92,
      "end": 2418.46,
      "text": "就尺度一致的问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 2418.46,
      "end": 2420.34,
      "text": "所以跟各位讲对数"
    },
    {
      "start": 2420.34,
      "end": 2421.66,
      "text": "也是为了说"
    },
    {
      "start": 2421.66,
      "end": 2424.68,
      "text": "因为我们讲了加法世界和乘法世界"
    },
    {
      "start": 2424.68,
      "end": 2427.38,
      "text": "对数就是连接加法和乘法的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2427.38,
      "end": 2431.88,
      "text": "但是在整个结构当中"
    },
    {
      "start": 2431.88,
      "end": 2436.2,
      "text": "还有一个事情就没有办法去进一步的分解"
    },
    {
      "start": 2436.2,
      "end": 2440.54,
      "text": "那么其实就可以引出我们下一个的内容"
    },
    {
      "start": 2440.54,
      "end": 2441.76,
      "text": "那就是质数"
    },
    {
      "start": 2441.76,
      "end": 2443.6,
      "text": "在加法世界当中"
    },
    {
      "start": 2443.6,
      "end": 2445.22,
      "text": "其实我们就可以理解"
    },
    {
      "start": 2445.22,
      "end": 2447.22,
      "text": "它的所有的基本单位都是一"
    },
    {
      "start": 2447.22,
      "end": 2449.5,
      "text": "因为二就是一加一"
    },
    {
      "start": 2449.5,
      "end": 2450.84,
      "text": "三是一加一加一"
    },
    {
      "start": 2450.84,
      "end": 2453.7,
      "text": "一百就是一百个一加相加"
    },
    {
      "start": 2454.68,
      "end": 2456.38,
      "text": "那么这种就非常的直观"
    },
    {
      "start": 2456.38,
      "end": 2456.6,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2456.6,
      "end": 2457.72,
      "text": "它的基本单位就是一"
    },
    {
      "start": 2457.72,
      "end": 2460.0,
      "text": "但在乘法世界当中"
    },
    {
      "start": 2460.0,
      "end": 2461.8,
      "text": "如果我们不允许使用加法"
    },
    {
      "start": 2461.8,
      "end": 2463.64,
      "text": "只研究整数之间的乘法关系"
    },
    {
      "start": 2463.64,
      "end": 2467.32,
      "text": "那么一个整数最基本就能拆分成什么"
    },
    {
      "start": 2467.32,
      "end": 2469.6,
      "text": "就是我们小学时候学过质数"
    },
    {
      "start": 2469.6,
      "end": 2469.92,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2469.92,
      "end": 2471.44,
      "text": "那么质数定义就是"
    },
    {
      "start": 2471.44,
      "end": 2472.92,
      "text": "一个大于一的整数"
    },
    {
      "start": 2472.92,
      "end": 2475.08,
      "text": "如果只能被一和它自身整除"
    },
    {
      "start": 2475.08,
      "end": 2475.98,
      "text": "那么它就是质数"
    },
    {
      "start": 2475.98,
      "end": 2479.24,
      "text": "但是这个事情我们没有办法理解"
    },
    {
      "start": 2479.24,
      "end": 2479.48,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2479.48,
      "end": 2480.68,
      "text": "这个质数有什么用"
    },
    {
      "start": 2480.68,
      "end": 2481.48,
      "text": "它为什么重要"
    },
    {
      "start": 2481.48,
      "end": 2484.28,
      "text": "但如果从乘法世界去理解的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 2484.28,
      "end": 2485.98,
      "text": "质数就完全不一样了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2485.98,
      "end": 2487.74,
      "text": "因为每一个大于一的整数"
    },
    {
      "start": 2487.74,
      "end": 2492.12,
      "text": "都能够唯一的分解为若干个质数的乘积"
    },
    {
      "start": 2492.12,
      "end": 2496.42,
      "text": "比如六十就等于二的平方乘以三乘以五"
    },
    {
      "start": 2496.42,
      "end": 2499.48,
      "text": "你可以先算四乘以十五"
    },
    {
      "start": 2499.48,
      "end": 2501.26,
      "text": "也可以算六乘以十"
    },
    {
      "start": 2501.26,
      "end": 2503.4,
      "text": "但你只要一路分解到底"
    },
    {
      "start": 2503.4,
      "end": 2506.66,
      "text": "最后都会得到二三五"
    },
    {
      "start": 2506.66,
      "end": 2509.36,
      "text": "它不会存在另一组"
    },
    {
      "start": 2509.36,
      "end": 2512.32,
      "text": "完全不同的质数也能够乘除六十"
    },
    {
      "start": 2512.32,
      "end": 2513.9,
      "text": "这就是质数"
    },
    {
      "start": 2513.9,
      "end": 2514.24,
      "text": "为什么"
    },
    {
      "start": 2514.28,
      "end": 2515.72,
      "text": "如此重要的一个原因"
    },
    {
      "start": 2515.72,
      "end": 2520.24,
      "text": "因为它质数就是我们乘法世界当中的一个不可约的原子"
    },
    {
      "start": 2520.24,
      "end": 2523.18,
      "text": "包括说我们的整个质数"
    },
    {
      "start": 2523.18,
      "end": 2523.38,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2523.38,
      "end": 2526.04,
      "text": "三五七十一"
    },
    {
      "start": 2526.04,
      "end": 2528.04,
      "text": "整个质数是有无穷个的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2528.04,
      "end": 2530.02,
      "text": "所以整个乘法的世界"
    },
    {
      "start": 2530.02,
      "end": 2531.7,
      "text": "它远比加法世界更为丰富"
    },
    {
      "start": 2531.7,
      "end": 2533.56,
      "text": "每一个质数都提供了一种"
    },
    {
      "start": 2533.56,
      "end": 2536.16,
      "text": "不能被其他质数替代的基本方向"
    },
    {
      "start": 2536.16,
      "end": 2538.52,
      "text": "一个整数是什么"
    },
    {
      "start": 2538.52,
      "end": 2540.08,
      "text": "它最终取决于两件事情"
    },
    {
      "start": 2540.08,
      "end": 2542.12,
      "text": "就是它包含哪些质数"
    },
    {
      "start": 2542.12,
      "end": 2544.24,
      "text": "以及每个质数出现多少"
    },
    {
      "start": 2544.24,
      "end": 2545.94,
      "text": "比如我们可以算"
    },
    {
      "start": 2545.94,
      "end": 2546.8,
      "text": "三百六"
    },
    {
      "start": 2546.8,
      "end": 2549.06,
      "text": "它等于二的三次方乘以"
    },
    {
      "start": 2549.06,
      "end": 2550.9,
      "text": "三的二次方再乘以五"
    },
    {
      "start": 2550.9,
      "end": 2553.54,
      "text": "那么从乘法的角度上来看"
    },
    {
      "start": 2553.54,
      "end": 2555.02,
      "text": "它的全部结构"
    },
    {
      "start": 2555.02,
      "end": 2557.46,
      "text": "就已经由三二一"
    },
    {
      "start": 2557.46,
      "end": 2560.22,
      "text": "这三个质数去进行一个描写了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2560.22,
      "end": 2562.98,
      "text": "那么这和我们平时写一个空间坐标"
    },
    {
      "start": 2562.98,
      "end": 2565.48,
      "text": "就有非常类似的对比"
    },
    {
      "start": 2565.48,
      "end": 2567.34,
      "text": "用抽象的代数语言"
    },
    {
      "start": 2567.34,
      "end": 2568.56,
      "text": "就说明"
    },
    {
      "start": 2568.56,
      "end": 2570.38,
      "text": "自然数的乘法结构"
    },
    {
      "start": 2570.38,
      "end": 2573.28,
      "text": "可以理解成由所有质数作为"
    },
    {
      "start": 2573.28,
      "end": 2574.22,
      "text": "生成的质数"
    },
    {
      "start": 2574.24,
      "end": 2576.14,
      "text": "成员结构的一个自由交换结构"
    },
    {
      "start": 2576.14,
      "end": 2578.66,
      "text": "这就是我们刚才提到的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2578.66,
      "end": 2580.34,
      "text": "加法世界的最基本"
    },
    {
      "start": 2580.34,
      "end": 2582.64,
      "text": "是一乘法世界最基本的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2582.64,
      "end": 2583.36,
      "text": "就是质数"
    },
    {
      "start": 2583.36,
      "end": 2584.56,
      "text": "而一个整数"
    },
    {
      "start": 2584.56,
      "end": 2587.0,
      "text": "它是由不同质数的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2587.0,
      "end": 2588.96,
      "text": "不同次方相乘组成的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2588.96,
      "end": 2591.12,
      "text": "那么如果两边取对数"
    },
    {
      "start": 2591.12,
      "end": 2593.0,
      "text": "它就会发生原来"
    },
    {
      "start": 2593.0,
      "end": 2595.26,
      "text": "所有质数之间相乘的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2595.26,
      "end": 2595.9,
      "text": "取完对数"
    },
    {
      "start": 2595.9,
      "end": 2597.14,
      "text": "它就变成相加了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2597.14,
      "end": 2600.48,
      "text": "每一个质数贡献一个固定的长度"
    },
    {
      "start": 2600.48,
      "end": 2602.02,
      "text": "乘了几次就加几倍"
    },
    {
      "start": 2602.02,
      "end": 2604.12,
      "text": "我们刚才说的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2604.12,
      "end": 2605.44,
      "text": "二的三次方乘以"
    },
    {
      "start": 2605.44,
      "end": 2607.18,
      "text": "三的平方再乘以五"
    },
    {
      "start": 2607.18,
      "end": 2608.5,
      "text": "那么到对数世界里面"
    },
    {
      "start": 2608.5,
      "end": 2610.0,
      "text": "就是三倍的log2"
    },
    {
      "start": 2610.0,
      "end": 2611.34,
      "text": "加两倍的log3"
    },
    {
      "start": 2611.34,
      "end": 2612.16,
      "text": "再加一个log5"
    },
    {
      "start": 2612.16,
      "end": 2613.6,
      "text": "那么整个乘法结构"
    },
    {
      "start": 2613.6,
      "end": 2615.62,
      "text": "就被直接拉成了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2615.62,
      "end": 2616.66,
      "text": "加法的结构"
    },
    {
      "start": 2616.66,
      "end": 2619.28,
      "text": "所以质数对数乘法"
    },
    {
      "start": 2619.28,
      "end": 2621.46,
      "text": "它都是给我们描述"
    },
    {
      "start": 2621.46,
      "end": 2623.48,
      "text": "就是说我们人脑"
    },
    {
      "start": 2623.48,
      "end": 2627.44,
      "text": "如何去处理一个加法世界"
    },
    {
      "start": 2627.44,
      "end": 2628.44,
      "text": "它其实就是一个"
    },
    {
      "start": 2628.44,
      "end": 2629.82,
      "text": "编译的一个过程"
    },
    {
      "start": 2629.82,
      "end": 2632.64,
      "text": "那么理解到这一层"
    },
    {
      "start": 2632.64,
      "end": 2633.84,
      "text": "我们其实就可以"
    },
    {
      "start": 2634.12,
      "end": 2635.22,
      "text": "知道为什么说"
    },
    {
      "start": 2635.22,
      "end": 2636.22,
      "text": "质数对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2636.22,
      "end": 2637.04,
      "text": "那么的奇妙"
    },
    {
      "start": 2637.04,
      "end": 2639.08,
      "text": "它会用到一些密码学上"
    },
    {
      "start": 2639.08,
      "end": 2641.72,
      "text": "包括说用到一些齿轮上面"
    },
    {
      "start": 2641.72,
      "end": 2643.62,
      "text": "用到现代的工程上面"
    },
    {
      "start": 2643.62,
      "end": 2646.6,
      "text": "那么为什么我要先跟各位讲呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2646.6,
      "end": 2649.02,
      "text": "就因为我们今天在聊"
    },
    {
      "start": 2649.02,
      "end": 2650.4,
      "text": "整个均线的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 2650.4,
      "end": 2652.8,
      "text": "其实我会跟各位去提到"
    },
    {
      "start": 2652.8,
      "end": 2653.52,
      "text": "质数的概念"
    },
    {
      "start": 2653.52,
      "end": 2657.1,
      "text": "我们通常使用的五十天"
    },
    {
      "start": 2657.1,
      "end": 2657.56,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2657.56,
      "end": 2658.68,
      "text": "五日线十日线"
    },
    {
      "start": 2658.68,
      "end": 2659.2799999999997,
      "text": "二十日线"
    },
    {
      "start": 2659.2799999999997,
      "end": 2660.18,
      "text": "包括六十日线"
    },
    {
      "start": 2660.18,
      "end": 2661.36,
      "text": "然后我看还有一些朋友"
    },
    {
      "start": 2661.36,
      "end": 2662.16,
      "text": "用三十日线"
    },
    {
      "start": 2662.16,
      "end": 2662.48,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2662.48,
      "end": 2663.8,
      "text": "因为二十日线"
    },
    {
      "start": 2663.8,
      "end": 2666.46,
      "text": "到六十日线中间跨度太长了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2666.46,
      "end": 2668.08,
      "text": "所以有时候我们会"
    },
    {
      "start": 2668.08,
      "end": 2670.12,
      "text": "再去用一个数"
    },
    {
      "start": 2670.12,
      "end": 2672.58,
      "text": "那么为什么我要讲到质数呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2672.58,
      "end": 2674.64,
      "text": "就因为它的一个特殊线"
    },
    {
      "start": 2674.64,
      "end": 2675.64,
      "text": "使得我们在"
    },
    {
      "start": 2675.64,
      "end": 2678.36,
      "text": "对于均线的整体结构的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 2678.36,
      "end": 2680.0,
      "text": "我们可以再给它进行"
    },
    {
      "start": 2680.0,
      "end": 2680.7799999999997,
      "text": "加一些参数"
    },
    {
      "start": 2680.7799999999997,
      "end": 2681.26,
      "text": "比如说"
    },
    {
      "start": 2681.26,
      "end": 2683.7799999999997,
      "text": "六十到二十之间"
    },
    {
      "start": 2683.7799999999997,
      "end": 2685.74,
      "text": "它有好几个质数"
    },
    {
      "start": 2685.74,
      "end": 2688.1,
      "text": "那我们找一个相对"
    },
    {
      "start": 2688.1,
      "end": 2690.2799999999997,
      "text": "比较中间的位置"
    },
    {
      "start": 2690.2799999999997,
      "end": 2691.38,
      "text": "那么我们可以取"
    },
    {
      "start": 2691.38,
      "end": 2692.1,
      "text": "四十一"
    },
    {
      "start": 2692.1,
      "end": 2692.56,
      "text": "四十三"
    },
    {
      "start": 2692.56,
      "end": 2693.32,
      "text": "或者四十七"
    },
    {
      "start": 2693.8,
      "end": 2695.2799999999997,
      "text": "我们可以看"
    },
    {
      "start": 2695.2799999999997,
      "end": 2695.94,
      "text": "四十三"
    },
    {
      "start": 2695.94,
      "end": 2696.2799999999997,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2696.2799999999997,
      "end": 2697.92,
      "text": "这几条线我们就可以看到"
    },
    {
      "start": 2697.92,
      "end": 2700.92,
      "text": "其实经过我的一些判断之后"
    },
    {
      "start": 2700.92,
      "end": 2704.1,
      "text": "我是认为整个四十七线"
    },
    {
      "start": 2704.1,
      "end": 2706.42,
      "text": "它会更有一些作用"
    },
    {
      "start": 2706.42,
      "end": 2707.06,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2707.06,
      "end": 2708.12,
      "text": "这条稍微暗的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2708.12,
      "end": 2708.82,
      "text": "我们可以看到"
    },
    {
      "start": 2708.82,
      "end": 2709.88,
      "text": "因为有些"
    },
    {
      "start": 2709.88,
      "end": 2712.38,
      "text": "相对比较关键的点位"
    },
    {
      "start": 2712.38,
      "end": 2714.04,
      "text": "它都会经过"
    },
    {
      "start": 2714.04,
      "end": 2715.2,
      "text": "都会挨着"
    },
    {
      "start": 2715.2,
      "end": 2717.2200000000003,
      "text": "要么上沿挨四十七天线"
    },
    {
      "start": 2717.2200000000003,
      "end": 2718.62,
      "text": "要么下沿挨四十七天线"
    },
    {
      "start": 2718.62,
      "end": 2721.7799999999997,
      "text": "所以我会跟各位去说"
    },
    {
      "start": 2721.7799999999997,
      "end": 2723.64,
      "text": "就你在二十天和六十天"
    },
    {
      "start": 2723.8,
      "end": 2725.84,
      "text": "我们可以多加一个四十七天线"
    },
    {
      "start": 2725.84,
      "end": 2726.2799999999997,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2726.2799999999997,
      "end": 2727.68,
      "text": "然后再到半年线"
    },
    {
      "start": 2727.68,
      "end": 2729.14,
      "text": "一百二十日线"
    },
    {
      "start": 2729.14,
      "end": 2731.08,
      "text": "我是喜欢用一百三十一"
    },
    {
      "start": 2731.08,
      "end": 2732.48,
      "text": "然后再到年线"
    },
    {
      "start": 2732.48,
      "end": 2734.02,
      "text": "我是喜欢用二百七十一"
    },
    {
      "start": 2734.02,
      "end": 2736.0,
      "text": "这些线对于我来讲"
    },
    {
      "start": 2736.0,
      "end": 2737.8,
      "text": "就更为的准确一点"
    },
    {
      "start": 2737.8,
      "end": 2739.42,
      "text": "同时它也可以"
    },
    {
      "start": 2739.42,
      "end": 2742.44,
      "text": "避免我们一个行为拥挤"
    },
    {
      "start": 2742.44,
      "end": 2742.94,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2742.94,
      "end": 2743.9,
      "text": "因为太多"
    },
    {
      "start": 2743.9,
      "end": 2745.46,
      "text": "他们是用人太多"
    },
    {
      "start": 2745.46,
      "end": 2748.06,
      "text": "但是你在更为大的周期里面"
    },
    {
      "start": 2748.06,
      "end": 2750.0,
      "text": "它整个均线的变化"
    },
    {
      "start": 2750.0,
      "end": 2751.16,
      "text": "是相对缓慢的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2751.16,
      "end": 2753.56,
      "text": "所以我们要找到更为明"
    },
    {
      "start": 2753.8,
      "end": 2756.4,
      "text": "明锐更为敏感的一些线"
    },
    {
      "start": 2756.4,
      "end": 2757.24,
      "text": "我们去看的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 2757.24,
      "end": 2761.3,
      "text": "整体的一个结构就会更为舒服一点"
    },
    {
      "start": 2761.3,
      "end": 2763.94,
      "text": "所以你们在用四十七天线之后"
    },
    {
      "start": 2763.94,
      "end": 2764.86,
      "text": "就能够看到"
    },
    {
      "start": 2764.86,
      "end": 2767.24,
      "text": "其实有很多的地方"
    },
    {
      "start": 2767.24,
      "end": 2769.94,
      "text": "它会比六十天线更为敏感"
    },
    {
      "start": 2769.94,
      "end": 2770.24,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2770.24,
      "end": 2772.88,
      "text": "因为它会慢于二十天线"
    },
    {
      "start": 2772.88,
      "end": 2775.8,
      "text": "所以我们在比较极端的行情"
    },
    {
      "start": 2775.8,
      "end": 2777.98,
      "text": "就是在整个趋势的中期"
    },
    {
      "start": 2777.98,
      "end": 2779.86,
      "text": "我们去用它的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 2779.86,
      "end": 2783.32,
      "text": "能够做到一定程度上的一些反弹"
    },
    {
      "start": 2783.32,
      "end": 2784.58,
      "text": "我们整体反弹的节奏"
    },
    {
      "start": 2784.58,
      "end": 2785.82,
      "text": "比如说你这个线对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2785.82,
      "end": 2788.38,
      "text": "你如果这个线你做六十日线的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 2788.38,
      "end": 2790.82,
      "text": "你整体这边的反弹你吃不到"
    },
    {
      "start": 2790.82,
      "end": 2792.14,
      "text": "然后你只能吃到后面一弹"
    },
    {
      "start": 2792.14,
      "end": 2795.0,
      "text": "它就它对于我们在做交易的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 2795.0,
      "end": 2797.06,
      "text": "就会更为的舒服一点"
    },
    {
      "start": 2797.06,
      "end": 2799.64,
      "text": "但是就说为什么要取质数呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2799.64,
      "end": 2801.14,
      "text": "其实你四十七"
    },
    {
      "start": 2801.14,
      "end": 2803.38,
      "text": "你用周围几个数四十八四十九"
    },
    {
      "start": 2803.38,
      "end": 2804.42,
      "text": "它其实是一样的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2805.58,
      "end": 2805.82,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2805.82,
      "end": 2807.42,
      "text": "但四十八四十九它不是质数"
    },
    {
      "start": 2807.42,
      "end": 2811.64,
      "text": "所以我会更习惯的用质数来进行一个表达"
    },
    {
      "start": 2811.64,
      "end": 2812.24,
      "text": "所以"
    },
    {
      "start": 2812.24,
      "end": 2813.18,
      "text": "我们再回到"
    },
    {
      "start": 2813.18,
      "end": 2816.5,
      "text": "军线当中其实就更为清晰的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2816.5,
      "end": 2818.8,
      "text": "就是说我们军线如果使用的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 2818.8,
      "end": 2820.66,
      "text": "我们要观察两个变量"
    },
    {
      "start": 2820.66,
      "end": 2821.12,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2821.12,
      "end": 2824.02,
      "text": "它是军线朝什么方向运行"
    },
    {
      "start": 2824.02,
      "end": 2826.74,
      "text": "以及价格位于军线的哪一侧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2826.74,
      "end": 2829.1,
      "text": "这两个变量交叉呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2829.1,
      "end": 2832.18,
      "text": "我们就能够得到四种基本状态"
    },
    {
      "start": 2833.18,
      "end": 2834.7200000000003,
      "text": "这四种基本状态里面"
    },
    {
      "start": 2834.7200000000003,
      "end": 2837.16,
      "text": "有两种是相对稳定的趋势状态"
    },
    {
      "start": 2837.16,
      "end": 2838.8,
      "text": "另外两种是过渡状态"
    },
    {
      "start": 2838.8,
      "end": 2842.14,
      "text": "那么先看两种稳定的状态呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2842.14,
      "end": 2842.9,
      "text": "第一种就是"
    },
    {
      "start": 2843.18,
      "end": 2844.18,
      "text": "军线向上"
    },
    {
      "start": 2844.18,
      "end": 2844.62,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2844.62,
      "end": 2846.96,
      "text": "位置价格位于我们可以看"
    },
    {
      "start": 2846.96,
      "end": 2848.56,
      "text": "看五十线和二十线"
    },
    {
      "start": 2848.56,
      "end": 2851.24,
      "text": "先把十删掉"
    },
    {
      "start": 2851.24,
      "end": 2854.26,
      "text": "这是我比较喜欢在强趋势打法里面"
    },
    {
      "start": 2854.26,
      "end": 2855.4,
      "text": "跟各位提到的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2855.4,
      "end": 2857.74,
      "text": "就是我基本上就只看五跟二十"
    },
    {
      "start": 2857.74,
      "end": 2860.34,
      "text": "那么我们首先第一种是军线向上"
    },
    {
      "start": 2860.34,
      "end": 2860.62,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2860.62,
      "end": 2861.32,
      "text": "价格呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2861.32,
      "end": 2862.66,
      "text": "处于军线的上方"
    },
    {
      "start": 2862.66,
      "end": 2864.98,
      "text": "这是标准的多头状态"
    },
    {
      "start": 2864.98,
      "end": 2866.98,
      "text": "平均价格持续抬高"
    },
    {
      "start": 2866.98,
      "end": 2867.86,
      "text": "当前价格呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2867.86,
      "end": 2869.52,
      "text": "又高于这个平均水平"
    },
    {
      "start": 2869.52,
      "end": 2872.12,
      "text": "方向和位置是相互配合的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2872.12,
      "end": 2873.16,
      "text": "那么向上的方向呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2873.18,
      "end": 2876.36,
      "text": "向上的军线就很更容易形成动态的一个支撑"
    },
    {
      "start": 2876.36,
      "end": 2879.2200000000003,
      "text": "那么价格回调到军线附近"
    },
    {
      "start": 2879.2200000000003,
      "end": 2879.68,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2879.68,
      "end": 2881.2,
      "text": "五日线二十一线也好"
    },
    {
      "start": 2881.2,
      "end": 2884.98,
      "text": "我们都能够看到它是有一个顺势的观察区域"
    },
    {
      "start": 2884.98,
      "end": 2885.88,
      "text": "但是呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2885.88,
      "end": 2888.84,
      "text": "还有一种就是我们最近能够看到的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2888.84,
      "end": 2889.12,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2889.12,
      "end": 2891.06,
      "text": "是一种军线向下"
    },
    {
      "start": 2891.06,
      "end": 2893.4,
      "text": "价格均位于军线的下方"
    },
    {
      "start": 2893.4,
      "end": 2896.06,
      "text": "那么就形成标准的空头结构"
    },
    {
      "start": 2896.06,
      "end": 2896.98,
      "text": "平均价格呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2896.98,
      "end": 2897.98,
      "text": "不断的降低"
    },
    {
      "start": 2897.98,
      "end": 2901.42,
      "text": "当前价格又位于下降中的一个价格重心"
    },
    {
      "start": 2901.42,
      "end": 2903.16,
      "text": "向下军线更容易形成动态"
    },
    {
      "start": 2903.18,
      "end": 2903.66,
      "text": "形成压力"
    },
    {
      "start": 2903.66,
      "end": 2906.3,
      "text": "那么反弹到军线附近的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 2906.3,
      "end": 2908.16,
      "text": "我们就通常要观察"
    },
    {
      "start": 2908.16,
      "end": 2908.36,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2908.36,
      "end": 2911.68,
      "text": "它是不是解套盘或者是趋势卖盘"
    },
    {
      "start": 2911.68,
      "end": 2914.2799999999997,
      "text": "因为我们在看细微的变化的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 2914.2799999999997,
      "end": 2917.74,
      "text": "其实对数坐标和普通坐标的区别不大"
    },
    {
      "start": 2917.74,
      "end": 2919.44,
      "text": "我们在看长期趋势的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 2919.44,
      "end": 2920.2799999999997,
      "text": "要用对数坐标"
    },
    {
      "start": 2920.2799999999997,
      "end": 2921.7,
      "text": "如果你看长期趋势"
    },
    {
      "start": 2921.7,
      "end": 2922.82,
      "text": "你用普通坐标的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 2922.82,
      "end": 2924.84,
      "text": "整体会形成一种误判"
    },
    {
      "start": 2924.84,
      "end": 2925.7,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2925.7,
      "end": 2927.7799999999997,
      "text": "我们看对数坐标就会更为清晰"
    },
    {
      "start": 2927.7799999999997,
      "end": 2929.9,
      "text": "那么看近期的这种走势的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 2929.9,
      "end": 2930.56,
      "text": "其实无所谓"
    },
    {
      "start": 2930.56,
      "end": 2931.54,
      "text": "普通坐标也可以"
    },
    {
      "start": 2931.54,
      "end": 2933.04,
      "text": "还有两种状态呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2933.04,
      "end": 2933.14,
      "text": "其实呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2933.14,
      "end": 2933.16,
      "text": "其实呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2933.16,
      "end": 2934.54,
      "text": "其实就横盘震荡区间"
    },
    {
      "start": 2934.54,
      "end": 2937.44,
      "text": "就是我们整体的一个军线呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2937.44,
      "end": 2939.3,
      "text": "它仍然有可能是向上的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2939.3,
      "end": 2942.96,
      "text": "但是价格是已经跌到了军线下方"
    },
    {
      "start": 2942.96,
      "end": 2943.98,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2943.98,
      "end": 2946.82,
      "text": "这就说明你的军线在过去"
    },
    {
      "start": 2946.82,
      "end": 2949.62,
      "text": "它可能还是反映着一个强势"
    },
    {
      "start": 2949.62,
      "end": 2951.4,
      "text": "但最新的价格它已经开始转弱"
    },
    {
      "start": 2951.4,
      "end": 2953.76,
      "text": "这个时候我们需要去观察价格"
    },
    {
      "start": 2953.76,
      "end": 2954.98,
      "text": "能否迅速的收回"
    },
    {
      "start": 2954.98,
      "end": 2957.18,
      "text": "如果很快的站上了军线上方"
    },
    {
      "start": 2957.18,
      "end": 2959.1,
      "text": "那么说明这一次是正常回调"
    },
    {
      "start": 2959.1,
      "end": 2960.88,
      "text": "如果长期处在军线下方"
    },
    {
      "start": 2960.88,
      "end": 2963.08,
      "text": "我们就需要看整个军线"
    },
    {
      "start": 2963.08,
      "end": 2964.0,
      "text": "斜率逐渐下降"
    },
    {
      "start": 2964.0,
      "end": 2966.24,
      "text": "那么市场就有可能会由上涨"
    },
    {
      "start": 2966.24,
      "end": 2967.44,
      "text": "转为震荡甚至是下跌"
    },
    {
      "start": 2967.44,
      "end": 2967.98,
      "text": "那么第"
    },
    {
      "start": 2967.98,
      "end": 2969.34,
      "text": "还有一种就是对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2969.34,
      "end": 2971.2200000000003,
      "text": "整体你军线向下"
    },
    {
      "start": 2971.2200000000003,
      "end": 2972.7799999999997,
      "text": "但是呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2972.7799999999997,
      "end": 2975.42,
      "text": "价格又已经站在了军线的上方"
    },
    {
      "start": 2975.42,
      "end": 2976.76,
      "text": "所以这种时候呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2976.76,
      "end": 2980.02,
      "text": "它就有可能是整个出现转机的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 2980.02,
      "end": 2983.42,
      "text": "因为价格先于军线出现了转强"
    },
    {
      "start": 2983.42,
      "end": 2985.7,
      "text": "而过去形成的价格重心呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2985.7,
      "end": 2986.5,
      "text": "仍然在下降"
    },
    {
      "start": 2986.5,
      "end": 2988.48,
      "text": "所以我们这次突破呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2988.48,
      "end": 2990.84,
      "text": "它有可能是普通反弹"
    },
    {
      "start": 2990.84,
      "end": 2993.06,
      "text": "也有可能是趋势反转的一个早期"
    },
    {
      "start": 2993.08,
      "end": 2994.04,
      "text": "的阶段"
    },
    {
      "start": 2994.04,
      "end": 2996.48,
      "text": "那我们为什么说对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2996.48,
      "end": 2999.7799999999997,
      "text": "做左侧和右侧的区别就在于这里"
    },
    {
      "start": 2999.7799999999997,
      "end": 3001.7200000000003,
      "text": "我们做右侧呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 3001.7200000000003,
      "end": 3003.48,
      "text": "就需要等它一个曲线"
    },
    {
      "start": 3003.48,
      "end": 3004.7,
      "text": "等它一个军线"
    },
    {
      "start": 3004.7,
      "end": 3006.06,
      "text": "然后开始拐头"
    },
    {
      "start": 3006.06,
      "end": 3009.56,
      "text": "我们才说这是进入到一个右侧的区间"
    },
    {
      "start": 3009.56,
      "end": 3012.08,
      "text": "因此整个军线呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 3012.08,
      "end": 3013.4,
      "text": "它在图表上"
    },
    {
      "start": 3013.4,
      "end": 3015.26,
      "text": "对你如果不看K线的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 3015.26,
      "end": 3018.62,
      "text": "它其实军线就是我们在图表上的一个细线"
    },
    {
      "start": 3018.62,
      "end": 3020.92,
      "text": "但是真实的交易行为"
    },
    {
      "start": 3020.92,
      "end": 3022.18,
      "text": "它不会急"
    },
    {
      "start": 3022.18,
      "end": 3023.06,
      "text": "就是准确的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3023.08,
      "end": 3024.94,
      "text": "准确的集中在一个交易点上"
    },
    {
      "start": 3024.94,
      "end": 3025.44,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 3025.44,
      "end": 3028.84,
      "text": "假设20线它位于10块钱"
    },
    {
      "start": 3028.84,
      "end": 3030.9,
      "text": "我们不以中心区上举例"
    },
    {
      "start": 3030.9,
      "end": 3032.54,
      "text": "我们先就以10块钱"
    },
    {
      "start": 3032.54,
      "end": 3033.36,
      "text": "那么就说明"
    },
    {
      "start": 3033.36,
      "end": 3036.5,
      "text": "最近20个交易是平均收盘价就在10块钱附近"
    },
    {
      "start": 3036.5,
      "end": 3038.02,
      "text": "有人可能在9块6买了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3038.02,
      "end": 3039.84,
      "text": "有可能在10块5毛钱买了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3039.84,
      "end": 3040.12,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 3040.12,
      "end": 3042.32,
      "text": "也有可能在11块钱最高"
    },
    {
      "start": 3042.32,
      "end": 3043.7200000000003,
      "text": "那么不同交易者"
    },
    {
      "start": 3043.7200000000003,
      "end": 3045.82,
      "text": "他会选择提前挂单"
    },
    {
      "start": 3045.82,
      "end": 3046.6,
      "text": "等待不得破"
    },
    {
      "start": 3046.6,
      "end": 3049.82,
      "text": "确认或者是只看收盘结果"
    },
    {
      "start": 3049.82,
      "end": 3052.56,
      "text": "因此区线它本身就是一个区域"
    },
    {
      "start": 3053.08,
      "end": 3057.18,
      "text": "这条线它本身是区域的一个中心轴"
    },
    {
      "start": 3057.18,
      "end": 3057.44,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 3057.44,
      "end": 3059.38,
      "text": "像这种强势区强势的股票"
    },
    {
      "start": 3059.38,
      "end": 3060.08,
      "text": "我们可以看它"
    },
    {
      "start": 3060.08,
      "end": 3062.6,
      "text": "5日线它其实就是一个中心轴"
    },
    {
      "start": 3062.6,
      "end": 3066.96,
      "text": "由此我们就可以带出几个非常实际的判断原则"
    },
    {
      "start": 3066.96,
      "end": 3069.52,
      "text": "首先价格轻微跌破均线"
    },
    {
      "start": 3069.52,
      "end": 3071.24,
      "text": "不等于趋势立即破坏"
    },
    {
      "start": 3071.24,
      "end": 3073.96,
      "text": "比如价格盘中跌破20日线"
    },
    {
      "start": 3073.96,
      "end": 3075.74,
      "text": "约1%"
    },
    {
      "start": 3075.74,
      "end": 3078.46,
      "text": "那么随后重新站回并留下明显的下一线"
    },
    {
      "start": 3078.46,
      "end": 3082.36,
      "text": "那么它就更接近是一次的支撑测试"
    },
    {
      "start": 3083.08,
      "end": 3084.88,
      "text": "中方尝试向下突破"
    },
    {
      "start": 3084.88,
      "end": 3088.2200000000003,
      "text": "但买方最终重新取得控制权"
    },
    {
      "start": 3088.2200000000003,
      "end": 3088.7200000000003,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 3088.7200000000003,
      "end": 3093.74,
      "text": "这种时候我们其实就是看20日线会更为多一点"
    },
    {
      "start": 3093.74,
      "end": 3099.5,
      "text": "这种短暂的穿越它就能够说明支撑它是有效的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3099.5,
      "end": 3103.46,
      "text": "其次我们判断日线级别的一个均线的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 3103.46,
      "end": 3105.64,
      "text": "收盘价它通常会更为重要"
    },
    {
      "start": 3105.64,
      "end": 3109.04,
      "text": "因为盘中价格它会受到大单或者指数"
    },
    {
      "start": 3109.04,
      "end": 3110.7799999999997,
      "text": "以及短期流动性的影响"
    },
    {
      "start": 3110.7799999999997,
      "end": 3111.8,
      "text": "盘中的跌破"
    },
    {
      "start": 3111.8,
      "end": 3112.04,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 3112.04,
      "end": 3112.88,
      "text": "我们可以说明"
    },
    {
      "start": 3112.88,
      "end": 3114.14,
      "text": "支撑正在接受检验"
    },
    {
      "start": 3114.14,
      "end": 3115.54,
      "text": "收盘能否重新站回"
    },
    {
      "start": 3115.54,
      "end": 3117.64,
      "text": "才更能说明当天的博弈结果"
    },
    {
      "start": 3117.64,
      "end": 3120.76,
      "text": "再一次就是即便是一次收盘跌破"
    },
    {
      "start": 3120.76,
      "end": 3123.42,
      "text": "也不等于趋势反转"
    },
    {
      "start": 3123.42,
      "end": 3125.68,
      "text": "我们还需要加入时间维度"
    },
    {
      "start": 3125.68,
      "end": 3128.46,
      "text": "价格跌破后可能第二天迅速修复"
    },
    {
      "start": 3128.46,
      "end": 3131.02,
      "text": "也可能围绕均线反复争夺"
    },
    {
      "start": 3131.02,
      "end": 3133.7799999999997,
      "text": "或者是连续几个交易都无法收回"
    },
    {
      "start": 3133.7799999999997,
      "end": 3135.08,
      "text": "一次跌破呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 3135.08,
      "end": 3135.7799999999997,
      "text": "它是事件"
    },
    {
      "start": 3135.7799999999997,
      "end": 3140.7200000000003,
      "text": "持续运行在均线下方才有可能形成一个新的状态"
    },
    {
      "start": 3140.7200000000003,
      "end": 3142.84,
      "text": "因此我们在做一些强区"
    },
    {
      "start": 3142.84,
      "end": 3142.86,
      "text": "我们在做一些强区"
    },
    {
      "start": 3142.88,
      "end": 3143.84,
      "text": "即使交易的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 3143.84,
      "end": 3146.4,
      "text": "最重要的组合结构呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 3146.4,
      "end": 3148.48,
      "text": "其实就是5G线和20G线"
    },
    {
      "start": 3148.48,
      "end": 3152.42,
      "text": "当然47天线在我们最近的一些反弹结构"
    },
    {
      "start": 3152.42,
      "end": 3156.12,
      "text": "包括说我们未来的反弹或者是反转结构当中"
    },
    {
      "start": 3156.12,
      "end": 3158.64,
      "text": "其实47天线的作用会更为明显一点"
    },
    {
      "start": 3158.64,
      "end": 3158.92,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 3158.92,
      "end": 3163.76,
      "text": "那你再放大了更为大的周期月线级别周线级别"
    },
    {
      "start": 3163.76,
      "end": 3165.84,
      "text": "那可能要去看137天线"
    },
    {
      "start": 3165.84,
      "end": 3167.26,
      "text": "131和271"
    },
    {
      "start": 3167.26,
      "end": 3169.48,
      "text": "例如我们可以看这种大的指数"
    },
    {
      "start": 3169.48,
      "end": 3170.84,
      "text": "当然均线这个东西啊"
    },
    {
      "start": 3170.84,
      "end": 3172.7,
      "text": "越大的东西越好用"
    },
    {
      "start": 3172.7,
      "end": 3174.68,
      "text": "就一些小市值股票"
    },
    {
      "start": 3174.68,
      "end": 3176.34,
      "text": "它会存在一些对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 3176.34,
      "end": 3177.1,
      "text": "各种原因"
    },
    {
      "start": 3177.1,
      "end": 3178.94,
      "text": "它整体均线不会那么好用"
    },
    {
      "start": 3178.94,
      "end": 3180.2,
      "text": "但是在一些大票"
    },
    {
      "start": 3180.2,
      "end": 3182.44,
      "text": "特别机构重仓的上面来看的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 3182.44,
      "end": 3184.96,
      "text": "会更为准确一点"
    },
    {
      "start": 3184.96,
      "end": 3186.26,
      "text": "那我们最近可以"
    },
    {
      "start": 3186.26,
      "end": 3189.16,
      "text": "为什么说50线和21线这么重要呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 3189.16,
      "end": 3192.34,
      "text": "其实我们要去看它整体一个金差死差的情况"
    },
    {
      "start": 3192.34,
      "end": 3193.52,
      "text": "比如说对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 3193.52,
      "end": 3195.12,
      "text": "这一天7月1号的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 3195.12,
      "end": 3199.38,
      "text": "50线和20线形成明显的一个死差"
    },
    {
      "start": 3199.38,
      "end": 3202.08,
      "text": "这种就是趋势转换的标记"
    },
    {
      "start": 3202.08,
      "end": 3202.54,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 3202.54,
      "end": 3204.18,
      "text": "像3月1号的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 3204.18,
      "end": 3206.06,
      "text": "那么形成一个明显的金差"
    },
    {
      "start": 3206.06,
      "end": 3207.48,
      "text": "50线在20线上方"
    },
    {
      "start": 3207.48,
      "end": 3209.76,
      "text": "那么就形成一个拐头的趋势"
    },
    {
      "start": 3209.76,
      "end": 3211.84,
      "text": "这是我们比较重要的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3211.84,
      "end": 3213.7200000000003,
      "text": "把两个线放在一起看"
    },
    {
      "start": 3213.7200000000003,
      "end": 3218.96,
      "text": "因为20线它是市场上很重要的中期观察线"
    },
    {
      "start": 3218.96,
      "end": 3222.46,
      "text": "这个在全球都是实用的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3222.46,
      "end": 3225.34,
      "text": "包括说我们在后面还需要再去观察KDJ"
    },
    {
      "start": 3225.34,
      "end": 3225.74,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 3225.74,
      "end": 3228.7799999999997,
      "text": "MACD以及其他的一些位置"
    },
    {
      "start": 3228.7799999999997,
      "end": 3230.56,
      "text": "甚至是成交量是否突破"
    },
    {
      "start": 3230.56,
      "end": 3231.76,
      "text": "包括说布林线"
    },
    {
      "start": 3231.76,
      "end": 3232.52,
      "text": "是否有收入"
    },
    {
      "start": 3232.54,
      "end": 3234.36,
      "text": "收缩转向向上开口"
    },
    {
      "start": 3234.36,
      "end": 3237.38,
      "text": "这些都会去进行一个佐证"
    },
    {
      "start": 3237.38,
      "end": 3238.36,
      "text": "信号越多"
    },
    {
      "start": 3238.36,
      "end": 3241.16,
      "text": "它所代表的一个级别也会越大"
    },
    {
      "start": 3241.16,
      "end": 3245.42,
      "text": "因此我们其实在判断追高的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 3245.42,
      "end": 3247.76,
      "text": "会有一个方法"
    },
    {
      "start": 3247.76,
      "end": 3249.92,
      "text": "也就是说我们要看50线"
    },
    {
      "start": 3249.92,
      "end": 3252.94,
      "text": "看50线的正乖率是否过高"
    },
    {
      "start": 3252.94,
      "end": 3255.26,
      "text": "一般来讲正乖率接近15%"
    },
    {
      "start": 3255.26,
      "end": 3258.1,
      "text": "这就说明整体是过高的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3258.1,
      "end": 3259.54,
      "text": "比如说这种时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 3259.54,
      "end": 3259.7799999999997,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 3259.7799999999997,
      "end": 3261.64,
      "text": "它的整体的一个正乖率"
    },
    {
      "start": 3261.64,
      "end": 3262.76,
      "text": "就是非常高的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3262.76,
      "end": 3264.04,
      "text": "这种时候你再去追高"
    },
    {
      "start": 3264.04,
      "end": 3265.8,
      "text": "就是很显然不合适的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3265.8,
      "end": 3267.98,
      "text": "也就是说离50线过高的情况下"
    },
    {
      "start": 3267.98,
      "end": 3269.36,
      "text": "那么它就是追高"
    },
    {
      "start": 3269.36,
      "end": 3271.88,
      "text": "一般来讲偏离50线15%"
    },
    {
      "start": 3271.88,
      "end": 3273.76,
      "text": "就是相当高的一个情况了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3273.76,
      "end": 3275.76,
      "text": "所以一旦出现这种情况"
    },
    {
      "start": 3275.76,
      "end": 3278.96,
      "text": "资金只要有稍微的回调"
    },
    {
      "start": 3278.96,
      "end": 3281.06,
      "text": "你的追高的资金"
    },
    {
      "start": 3281.06,
      "end": 3283.26,
      "text": "就会陷入非常大的一个负亏"
    },
    {
      "start": 3283.26,
      "end": 3284.08,
      "text": "反过来"
    },
    {
      "start": 3284.08,
      "end": 3287.52,
      "text": "如果股价它始终贴着50线"
    },
    {
      "start": 3287.52,
      "end": 3289.3,
      "text": "缓慢的推进"
    },
    {
      "start": 3289.3,
      "end": 3291.34,
      "text": "即使累计涨幅"
    },
    {
      "start": 3291.64,
      "end": 3292.6,
      "text": "已经不小了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3292.6,
      "end": 3294.2,
      "text": "但只要价格和5日线"
    },
    {
      "start": 3294.2,
      "end": 3296.7799999999997,
      "text": "没有拉开过大的距离"
    },
    {
      "start": 3296.7799999999997,
      "end": 3300.86,
      "text": "我们就不能简单的去把它称之为追高"
    },
    {
      "start": 3300.86,
      "end": 3303.52,
      "text": "这种走势更接近于为"
    },
    {
      "start": 3303.52,
      "end": 3306.4,
      "text": "价格重心的持续上移"
    },
    {
      "start": 3306.4,
      "end": 3308.44,
      "text": "因此我们一般面对这种"
    },
    {
      "start": 3308.44,
      "end": 3308.92,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 3308.92,
      "end": 3309.58,
      "text": "说不追高"
    },
    {
      "start": 3309.58,
      "end": 3310.4,
      "text": "你要说等"
    },
    {
      "start": 3310.4,
      "end": 3311.76,
      "text": "等期等什么"
    },
    {
      "start": 3311.76,
      "end": 3314.24,
      "text": "比如说哪种之前的强势股"
    },
    {
      "start": 3314.24,
      "end": 3315.06,
      "text": "来举例的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 3315.06,
      "end": 3317.94,
      "text": "等期就等它远离5日均线之后"
    },
    {
      "start": 3317.94,
      "end": 3319.7799999999997,
      "text": "回归到20日均线"
    },
    {
      "start": 3319.7799999999997,
      "end": 3320.52,
      "text": "等这种位置"
    },
    {
      "start": 3320.52,
      "end": 3321.32,
      "text": "我们去介入"
    },
    {
      "start": 3321.64,
      "end": 3322.66,
      "text": "一般来讲"
    },
    {
      "start": 3322.66,
      "end": 3323.14,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 3323.14,
      "end": 3324.82,
      "text": "只要是出现强趋势的股票"
    },
    {
      "start": 3324.82,
      "end": 3327.54,
      "text": "它都会给你这种回调的机会"
    },
    {
      "start": 3327.54,
      "end": 3329.38,
      "text": "也就是我们要去介入的点"
    },
    {
      "start": 3329.38,
      "end": 3330.98,
      "text": "第一波我们没吃到"
    },
    {
      "start": 3330.98,
      "end": 3331.9,
      "text": "第一波对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 3331.9,
      "end": 3334.96,
      "text": "它是整体死查变精查一个过程"
    },
    {
      "start": 3334.96,
      "end": 3336.32,
      "text": "是趋势刚刚形成的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 3336.32,
      "end": 3337.7799999999997,
      "text": "这种时候你再去做"
    },
    {
      "start": 3337.7799999999997,
      "end": 3341.36,
      "text": "那么整体就是相对来讲比较危险的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3341.36,
      "end": 3341.68,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 3341.68,
      "end": 3342.42,
      "text": "一般来讲"
    },
    {
      "start": 3342.42,
      "end": 3343.58,
      "text": "很多人在这种时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 3343.58,
      "end": 3344.48,
      "text": "他是做不进去的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3344.48,
      "end": 3345.88,
      "text": "在这种时候他才能看见"
    },
    {
      "start": 3345.88,
      "end": 3347.2200000000003,
      "text": "这个股票确实有表现了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3347.2200000000003,
      "end": 3348.46,
      "text": "那么就继续等"
    },
    {
      "start": 3348.46,
      "end": 3348.76,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 3348.76,
      "end": 3349.8,
      "text": "等它调完之后"
    },
    {
      "start": 3349.8,
      "end": 3351.1,
      "text": "你后面还是能够吃到的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3351.64,
      "end": 3353.42,
      "text": "这是我们要说的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3353.42,
      "end": 3354.92,
      "text": "也就是说"
    },
    {
      "start": 3354.92,
      "end": 3357.36,
      "text": "我们最近为什么要留五层仓的一个原因"
    },
    {
      "start": 3357.36,
      "end": 3359.38,
      "text": "我们要等的就这种位置"
    },
    {
      "start": 3359.38,
      "end": 3362.24,
      "text": "因为我们首先打50%进去"
    },
    {
      "start": 3362.24,
      "end": 3363.58,
      "text": "吃到前面一波涨幅"
    },
    {
      "start": 3363.58,
      "end": 3364.4,
      "text": "我们后面"
    },
    {
      "start": 3364.4,
      "end": 3366.54,
      "text": "因为你对于市场来讲"
    },
    {
      "start": 3366.54,
      "end": 3368.76,
      "text": "你是要去有位居心的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3368.76,
      "end": 3370.46,
      "text": "那么我们要留半仓的位置"
    },
    {
      "start": 3370.46,
      "end": 3371.38,
      "text": "我们等待这种时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 3371.38,
      "end": 3372.3,
      "text": "我们再去做"
    },
    {
      "start": 3372.3,
      "end": 3373.7,
      "text": "所以这就是均线"
    },
    {
      "start": 3373.7,
      "end": 3376.38,
      "text": "对我们来讲非常大的一个帮助"
    },
    {
      "start": 3376.38,
      "end": 3378.86,
      "text": "因为它不仅是可以帮我们寻找买点"
    },
    {
      "start": 3378.86,
      "end": 3381.36,
      "text": "也可以用来管理仓位"
    },
    {
      "start": 3381.36,
      "end": 3381.6,
      "text": "和"
    },
    {
      "start": 3381.64,
      "end": 3382.58,
      "text": "进行退出"
    },
    {
      "start": 3382.58,
      "end": 3383.04,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 3383.04,
      "end": 3384.54,
      "text": "对于普通的波段行情"
    },
    {
      "start": 3384.54,
      "end": 3386.2799999999997,
      "text": "那么我们就可以把二十一线"
    },
    {
      "start": 3386.2799999999997,
      "end": 3388.34,
      "text": "作为中短期的风险观察点"
    },
    {
      "start": 3388.34,
      "end": 3391.24,
      "text": "但不能说只要破盘中跌破"
    },
    {
      "start": 3391.24,
      "end": 3392.2200000000003,
      "text": "你就立刻离场"
    },
    {
      "start": 3392.2200000000003,
      "end": 3395.08,
      "text": "我们仍然是需要去遵循前面讲过的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3395.08,
      "end": 3397.48,
      "text": "区域收盘和持续性原则"
    },
    {
      "start": 3397.48,
      "end": 3399.7200000000003,
      "text": "价格有效跌破二十一线"
    },
    {
      "start": 3399.7200000000003,
      "end": 3401.44,
      "text": "连续无法收回"
    },
    {
      "start": 3401.44,
      "end": 3402.48,
      "text": "反弹到二十一线"
    },
    {
      "start": 3402.48,
      "end": 3403.7200000000003,
      "text": "又受到压制"
    },
    {
      "start": 3403.7200000000003,
      "end": 3406.2799999999997,
      "text": "同时二十一线开始向下走平"
    },
    {
      "start": 3406.2799999999997,
      "end": 3407.6,
      "text": "如果是对于那种"
    },
    {
      "start": 3407.6,
      "end": 3409.62,
      "text": "沿着五十一线快速上涨的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3409.62,
      "end": 3410.7,
      "text": "强趋势的品种"
    },
    {
      "start": 3410.7,
      "end": 3411.14,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 3411.64,
      "end": 3412.46,
      "text": "可以使用五十一线"
    },
    {
      "start": 3412.46,
      "end": 3415.32,
      "text": "作为更敏感的指引的观察线"
    },
    {
      "start": 3415.32,
      "end": 3417.64,
      "text": "那么强势阶段"
    },
    {
      "start": 3417.64,
      "end": 3420.66,
      "text": "它的价格肯定是会贴着五十一线运行的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3420.66,
      "end": 3422.16,
      "text": "一旦价格有效跌破五十一线"
    },
    {
      "start": 3422.16,
      "end": 3425.02,
      "text": "随后五十一线开始向下拐头的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 3425.02,
      "end": 3427.62,
      "text": "就说明最短期的一个价格重心发生变化"
    },
    {
      "start": 3427.62,
      "end": 3431.2,
      "text": "所以我当时在七月初之前的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 3431.2,
      "end": 3432.12,
      "text": "大跌之前的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 3432.12,
      "end": 3433.04,
      "text": "跟各位说过"
    },
    {
      "start": 3433.04,
      "end": 3435.3,
      "text": "你说你确实浮盈很高"
    },
    {
      "start": 3435.3,
      "end": 3436.8,
      "text": "你想要去吃"
    },
    {
      "start": 3436.8,
      "end": 3438.08,
      "text": "但是你能不能接受"
    },
    {
      "start": 3438.08,
      "end": 3439.8,
      "text": "它从五十一线跌到二十一线"
    },
    {
      "start": 3440.2799999999997,
      "end": 3441.16,
      "text": "这个程度"
    },
    {
      "start": 3441.16,
      "end": 3441.6,
      "text": "你能"
    },
    {
      "start": 3441.6,
      "end": 3442.1400000000003,
      "text": "否接受"
    },
    {
      "start": 3442.1400000000003,
      "end": 3442.42,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 3442.42,
      "end": 3445.74,
      "text": "你整体一个下杀是非常的大的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3445.74,
      "end": 3447.5,
      "text": "所以对于强趋势股"
    },
    {
      "start": 3447.5,
      "end": 3449.6800000000003,
      "text": "你可以在五十一线来回盘整"
    },
    {
      "start": 3449.6800000000003,
      "end": 3450.9,
      "text": "但是你不能有效跌破"
    },
    {
      "start": 3450.9,
      "end": 3451.56,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 3451.56,
      "end": 3453.34,
      "text": "你需要踩五十一线"
    },
    {
      "start": 3453.34,
      "end": 3454.6,
      "text": "你继续往上"
    },
    {
      "start": 3454.6,
      "end": 3455.1,
      "text": "就像这种"
    },
    {
      "start": 3455.1,
      "end": 3456.8199999999997,
      "text": "你必须要踩五十一线继续往上"
    },
    {
      "start": 3456.8199999999997,
      "end": 3460.24,
      "text": "如果你一直在五十一线进行一个盘整"
    },
    {
      "start": 3460.24,
      "end": 3461.7799999999997,
      "text": "那其实就是等二十日"
    },
    {
      "start": 3461.7799999999997,
      "end": 3463.44,
      "text": "等二十一线往上走"
    },
    {
      "start": 3463.44,
      "end": 3465.3,
      "text": "二十一线慢慢上来"
    },
    {
      "start": 3465.3,
      "end": 3467.16,
      "text": "让五十一线向二十一线靠近"
    },
    {
      "start": 3467.16,
      "end": 3469.84,
      "text": "然后又开启一轮新的进攻的趋势"
    },
    {
      "start": 3469.84,
      "end": 3470.2799999999997,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 3470.2799999999997,
      "end": 3471.12,
      "text": "但同样的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3471.12,
      "end": 3471.56,
      "text": "但同样的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3471.56,
      "end": 3473.8,
      "text": "我们需要去观看量能"
    },
    {
      "start": 3473.8,
      "end": 3476.0,
      "text": "因为价格回到二十一线附近"
    },
    {
      "start": 3476.0,
      "end": 3477.92,
      "text": "我们不能说碰线就直接买"
    },
    {
      "start": 3477.92,
      "end": 3480.06,
      "text": "我们还需要看它整体一个成交量"
    },
    {
      "start": 3480.06,
      "end": 3480.62,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 3480.62,
      "end": 3482.3599999999997,
      "text": "我们需要看它一个整体的成交量"
    },
    {
      "start": 3482.3599999999997,
      "end": 3484.04,
      "text": "这种是明显放量"
    },
    {
      "start": 3484.04,
      "end": 3484.94,
      "text": "跟前几天对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 3484.94,
      "end": 3486.4,
      "text": "相比是明显进行一个放量"
    },
    {
      "start": 3486.4,
      "end": 3488.58,
      "text": "因为一段健康的回调"
    },
    {
      "start": 3488.58,
      "end": 3489.58,
      "text": "就这种时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 3489.58,
      "end": 3490.7200000000003,
      "text": "这种是健康的回调"
    },
    {
      "start": 3490.7200000000003,
      "end": 3492.62,
      "text": "健康的回调"
    },
    {
      "start": 3492.62,
      "end": 3496.38,
      "text": "它通常表现为价格逐步接近均线"
    },
    {
      "start": 3496.38,
      "end": 3499.12,
      "text": "成交量同步缩小"
    },
    {
      "start": 3499.8,
      "end": 3501.38,
      "text": "这就说明主动的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3501.38,
      "end": 3502.84,
      "text": "抛售力量正在下降"
    },
    {
      "start": 3502.84,
      "end": 3505.1400000000003,
      "text": "然后均线到达了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3505.1400000000003,
      "end": 3507.7200000000003,
      "text": "就价格到达了均线的区域之后"
    },
    {
      "start": 3507.7200000000003,
      "end": 3509.84,
      "text": "可以出现下引线"
    },
    {
      "start": 3509.84,
      "end": 3511.58,
      "text": "或者是缩量的十字星"
    },
    {
      "start": 3511.58,
      "end": 3512.6400000000003,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 3512.6400000000003,
      "end": 3513.24,
      "text": "止跌"
    },
    {
      "start": 3513.24,
      "end": 3515.84,
      "text": "阳线或者重新放量上涨"
    },
    {
      "start": 3515.84,
      "end": 3516.6,
      "text": "那反过来"
    },
    {
      "start": 3516.6,
      "end": 3518.92,
      "text": "如果价格回调的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 3518.92,
      "end": 3520.8599999999997,
      "text": "它的成交量在放大"
    },
    {
      "start": 3520.8599999999997,
      "end": 3523.5,
      "text": "并且实体阴线不断的增加"
    },
    {
      "start": 3523.5,
      "end": 3527.7799999999997,
      "text": "即使还没有明显的跌破二十日线"
    },
    {
      "start": 3527.7799999999997,
      "end": 3530.7,
      "text": "这个说明这个时候风险也在提高"
    },
    {
      "start": 3530.7,
      "end": 3531.34,
      "text": "均线"
    },
    {
      "start": 3531.38,
      "end": 3532.66,
      "text": "它只是位置"
    },
    {
      "start": 3532.66,
      "end": 3534.62,
      "text": "而量能反映的是"
    },
    {
      "start": 3534.62,
      "end": 3537.46,
      "text": "这个位置上的卖压到底有多强"
    },
    {
      "start": 3537.46,
      "end": 3537.66,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 3537.66,
      "end": 3539.44,
      "text": "所以我们可以看到这根线"
    },
    {
      "start": 3539.44,
      "end": 3540.6400000000003,
      "text": "这个量的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3540.6400000000003,
      "end": 3541.5,
      "text": "其次呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 3541.5,
      "end": 3544.08,
      "text": "就是说我们要去周期的确认"
    },
    {
      "start": 3544.08,
      "end": 3545.98,
      "text": "比如说你如果是准备"
    },
    {
      "start": 3545.98,
      "end": 3549.52,
      "text": "要去重仓个股的情况下"
    },
    {
      "start": 3549.52,
      "end": 3553.24,
      "text": "我建议各位先去看一下周线"
    },
    {
      "start": 3553.24,
      "end": 3554.08,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 3554.08,
      "end": 3556.1,
      "text": "我们要加入周线级别的一个确认"
    },
    {
      "start": 3556.1,
      "end": 3558.88,
      "text": "因为日线它提供的是具体的买点"
    },
    {
      "start": 3558.88,
      "end": 3561.3599999999997,
      "text": "而周线负责的是确认的买点"
    },
    {
      "start": 3561.38,
      "end": 3563.46,
      "text": "更高一级的趋势环境"
    },
    {
      "start": 3563.46,
      "end": 3565.2,
      "text": "所以整个均线系统"
    },
    {
      "start": 3565.2,
      "end": 3567.54,
      "text": "其实看起来是比较简单的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3567.54,
      "end": 3567.84,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 3567.84,
      "end": 3569.6800000000003,
      "text": "因为没什么难的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3569.6800000000003,
      "end": 3572.6400000000003,
      "text": "主要我今天跟各位讲了一些数学"
    },
    {
      "start": 3572.6400000000003,
      "end": 3575.06,
      "text": "一些数学小学数学的概念"
    },
    {
      "start": 3575.06,
      "end": 3575.3199999999997,
      "text": "好吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 3575.3199999999997,
      "end": 3576.46,
      "text": "我们在用的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 3576.46,
      "end": 3579.8599999999997,
      "text": "要去结合方向位置周期"
    },
    {
      "start": 3579.8599999999997,
      "end": 3581.16,
      "text": "乖离率以及成交量"
    },
    {
      "start": 3581.16,
      "end": 3583.6800000000003,
      "text": "包括k线和市场环境结合起来"
    },
    {
      "start": 3583.6800000000003,
      "end": 3585.8199999999997,
      "text": "市场里是没有任何一个技术"
    },
    {
      "start": 3585.8199999999997,
      "end": 3587.1,
      "text": "能够做到零风险的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3587.1,
      "end": 3589.7200000000003,
      "text": "均线它不会简单的告诉我们"
    },
    {
      "start": 3589.7200000000003,
      "end": 3591.26,
      "text": "某只股票一定会在什么"
    },
    {
      "start": 3591.26,
      "end": 3591.3599999999997,
      "text": "价格上"
    },
    {
      "start": 3591.38,
      "end": 3591.88,
      "text": "价格反弹"
    },
    {
      "start": 3591.88,
      "end": 3594.52,
      "text": "更不会保证金叉之后"
    },
    {
      "start": 3594.52,
      "end": 3595.48,
      "text": "它必然会上涨"
    },
    {
      "start": 3595.48,
      "end": 3597.1400000000003,
      "text": "我们需要知道的是"
    },
    {
      "start": 3597.1400000000003,
      "end": 3598.4,
      "text": "均线的价值"
    },
    {
      "start": 3598.4,
      "end": 3599.56,
      "text": "是让我们知道"
    },
    {
      "start": 3599.56,
      "end": 3601.44,
      "text": "当前处于什么环境"
    },
    {
      "start": 3601.44,
      "end": 3603.72,
      "text": "价格运行到什么位置以后"
    },
    {
      "start": 3603.72,
      "end": 3604.7,
      "text": "值得观察"
    },
    {
      "start": 3604.7,
      "end": 3605.5,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 3605.5,
      "end": 3607.74,
      "text": "以及趋势发生变化的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 3607.74,
      "end": 3611.56,
      "text": "我们应当如何处理自己的一个仓位"
    },
    {
      "start": 3611.56,
      "end": 3613.82,
      "text": "所以如果你已经研究清楚了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3613.82,
      "end": 3615.7,
      "text": "一个行业或者一家公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 3615.7,
      "end": 3619.32,
      "text": "那么就不需要每天进行追逐价格"
    },
    {
      "start": 3619.32,
      "end": 3622.32,
      "text": "每天非得要日内去进行动作"
    },
    {
      "start": 3622.32,
      "end": 3623.94,
      "text": "而是说你需要去等待"
    },
    {
      "start": 3623.94,
      "end": 3627.72,
      "text": "等待它出现在符合自己规则的位置"
    },
    {
      "start": 3627.72,
      "end": 3630.7,
      "text": "如果没有出现买点"
    },
    {
      "start": 3630.7,
      "end": 3631.2,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 3631.2,
      "end": 3632.02,
      "text": "你可以去等"
    },
    {
      "start": 3632.02,
      "end": 3633.96,
      "text": "如果它的乖离率过大"
    },
    {
      "start": 3633.96,
      "end": 3635.06,
      "text": "你不要去追高"
    },
    {
      "start": 3635.06,
      "end": 3637.74,
      "text": "价格回到均线区域以后"
    },
    {
      "start": 3637.74,
      "end": 3639.1,
      "text": "再进行一个观察"
    },
    {
      "start": 3639.1,
      "end": 3640.76,
      "text": "那么保持耐心"
    },
    {
      "start": 3640.76,
      "end": 3642.56,
      "text": "正常持有"
    },
    {
      "start": 3642.56,
      "end": 3645.24,
      "text": "那么结构如果转弱的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 3645.24,
      "end": 3646.94,
      "text": "按照规则去进行处理"
    },
    {
      "start": 3646.94,
      "end": 3649.78,
      "text": "所以这就是我们在做交易的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 3649.78,
      "end": 3651.46,
      "text": "需要去把握的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3651.46,
      "end": 3652.8,
      "text": "你在做股票"
    },
    {
      "start": 3652.8,
      "end": 3654.36,
      "text": "绝对不是每天"
    },
    {
      "start": 3654.36,
      "end": 3655.8,
      "text": "上场厮杀"
    },
    {
      "start": 3655.8,
      "end": 3657.06,
      "text": "然后拼个你死我活"
    },
    {
      "start": 3657.06,
      "end": 3660.2,
      "text": "我们把这种基础的方法掌握之后"
    },
    {
      "start": 3660.2,
      "end": 3661.1,
      "text": "更多的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 3661.1,
      "end": 3662.92,
      "text": "其实是等待和执行"
    },
    {
      "start": 3662.92,
      "end": 3665.24,
      "text": "我们今天的视频就到这里"
    },
    {
      "start": 3665.24,
      "end": 3665.88,
      "text": "谢谢大家"
    }
  ]
}