{
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  "segments": [
    {
      "start": 0.11,
      "end": 1.09,
      "text": "哈喽大家好"
    },
    {
      "start": 1.09,
      "end": 2.79,
      "text": "开始我们这周一个复盘"
    },
    {
      "start": 2.79,
      "end": 5.79,
      "text": "我们这周复盘相对来讲会比较重要一点"
    },
    {
      "start": 5.79,
      "end": 8.81,
      "text": "因为明天就8月第一个交易日了"
    },
    {
      "start": 8.81,
      "end": 14.67,
      "text": "然后我们根据7月的全部数据来看的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 14.67,
      "end": 17.91,
      "text": "对于8月的判断会更清晰一点"
    },
    {
      "start": 17.91,
      "end": 23.11,
      "text": "我认为8月它仍然是一个风险扩散的确认月"
    },
    {
      "start": 23.11,
      "end": 27.31,
      "text": "也就是说我们8月它不太会像7月那个样子"
    },
    {
      "start": 27.31,
      "end": 30.29,
      "text": "继续演变成一次全面的股灾"
    },
    {
      "start": 30.29,
      "end": 37.67,
      "text": "但也不意味着7月底的反弹就已经确认底部了"
    },
    {
      "start": 37.67,
      "end": 43.15,
      "text": "更有可能出现的路径是月初会连续超跌修复"
    },
    {
      "start": 43.15,
      "end": 47.65,
      "text": "那么到了月中就继续去看美国的一些经济数据"
    },
    {
      "start": 47.65,
      "end": 49.19,
      "text": "然后进行重新定价"
    },
    {
      "start": 49.19,
      "end": 51.85,
      "text": "到了月底再由英伟达的财报"
    },
    {
      "start": 51.85,
      "end": 54.35,
      "text": "包括杰克逊霍尔会议最终确定方向"
    },
    {
      "start": 54.97,
      "end": 56.47,
      "text": "杰克逊霍尔会议"
    },
    {
      "start": 56.47,
      "end": 61.07,
      "text": "我们在上个月的一次周复盘里面跟各位提到过"
    },
    {
      "start": 61.07,
      "end": 65.45,
      "text": "它是衔接了7月和9月的美联储会议的"
    },
    {
      "start": 65.45,
      "end": 69.35,
      "text": "所以它在中间这个位置会相对来讲比较重要"
    },
    {
      "start": 69.35,
      "end": 71.55,
      "text": "因为它是央行的政策风向标"
    },
    {
      "start": 71.55,
      "end": 75.41,
      "text": "在讲杰克逊霍尔会议的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 75.41,
      "end": 76.79,
      "text": "当时给各位一个表"
    },
    {
      "start": 76.79,
      "end": 79.97,
      "text": "就整个下半年重大的宏观事件"
    },
    {
      "start": 79.97,
      "end": 83.57,
      "text": "那么我在今天晚上复盘笔记的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 83.57,
      "end": 85.35,
      "text": "会再给各位一个"
    },
    {
      "start": 85.35,
      "end": 86.39,
      "text": "8月份"
    },
    {
      "start": 86.47,
      "end": 89.51,
      "text": "更为详细的一张表"
    },
    {
      "start": 89.51,
      "end": 91.01,
      "text": "大家到时候可以去看一下"
    },
    {
      "start": 91.01,
      "end": 95.49,
      "text": "首先我们其实看7月的最后一个交易日的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 95.49,
      "end": 98.11,
      "text": "整体看美股这边整体全部红的"
    },
    {
      "start": 98.11,
      "end": 103.05,
      "text": "那么能够说明就是大型公司的盈利能力"
    },
    {
      "start": 103.05,
      "end": 104.99,
      "text": "是能够拖住指数的"
    },
    {
      "start": 104.99,
      "end": 107.89,
      "text": "但它没有改变油价上涨"
    },
    {
      "start": 107.89,
      "end": 110.41,
      "text": "包括说长端收益率高企"
    },
    {
      "start": 110.41,
      "end": 113.43,
      "text": "以及加息风险重新升温的大环境"
    },
    {
      "start": 113.43,
      "end": 116.43,
      "text": "因此我们8月份"
    },
    {
      "start": 116.47,
      "end": 118.39,
      "text": "最值得关注的问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 118.39,
      "end": 120.17,
      "text": "不在于市场会不会反弹"
    },
    {
      "start": 120.17,
      "end": 125.25,
      "text": "因为在经历7月那种级别的大跌之后"
    },
    {
      "start": 125.25,
      "end": 127.07,
      "text": "反弹它其实是不意外的"
    },
    {
      "start": 127.07,
      "end": 128.87,
      "text": "我们更需要观察的"
    },
    {
      "start": 128.87,
      "end": 132.75,
      "text": "是它能否夺回已经失守的防线"
    },
    {
      "start": 132.75,
      "end": 134.27,
      "text": "对啊"
    },
    {
      "start": 134.27,
      "end": 137.23,
      "text": "包括说后面如果出现一些利好的消息"
    },
    {
      "start": 137.23,
      "end": 138.77,
      "text": "市场能不能继续上涨"
    },
    {
      "start": 138.77,
      "end": 142.59,
      "text": "并且收复掉所有下跌的这些幅度"
    },
    {
      "start": 142.59,
      "end": 145.57,
      "text": "这是我们本月需要重点去观察的"
    },
    {
      "start": 145.57,
      "end": 146.35,
      "text": "因为从"
    },
    {
      "start": 146.35,
      "end": 147.59,
      "text": "指数上来讲"
    },
    {
      "start": 147.59,
      "end": 150.07,
      "text": "我们看道琼斯的月线"
    },
    {
      "start": 150.07,
      "end": 154.45,
      "text": "它整个7月份是上涨了约0.32%"
    },
    {
      "start": 154.45,
      "end": 156.33,
      "text": "这个是幅度比较小的"
    },
    {
      "start": 156.33,
      "end": 157.53,
      "text": "纳斯达克呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 157.53,
      "end": 160.29,
      "text": "下跌是3.2%"
    },
    {
      "start": 160.29,
      "end": 162.89,
      "text": "它的整体一个下跌的幅度也不算大"
    },
    {
      "start": 162.89,
      "end": 164.21,
      "text": "说实话不算大"
    },
    {
      "start": 164.21,
      "end": 165.67,
      "text": "你拿它去"
    },
    {
      "start": 165.67,
      "end": 168.17,
      "text": "它就是一个很平常的一个数据"
    },
    {
      "start": 168.17,
      "end": 170.65,
      "text": "然后你如果再去看标普500的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 170.65,
      "end": 174.65,
      "text": "这个月是上涨了0.3%"
    },
    {
      "start": 174.65,
      "end": 174.87,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 174.87,
      "end": 176.05,
      "text": "它收了一根十字星"
    },
    {
      "start": 176.05,
      "end": 178.35,
      "text": "但是我们抛过指数"
    },
    {
      "start": 178.35,
      "end": 179.57,
      "text": "我们看指数内部"
    },
    {
      "start": 179.57,
      "end": 182.77,
      "text": "它就呈现了完全不一样的情况"
    },
    {
      "start": 182.77,
      "end": 186.57,
      "text": "动量因此暴跌约25%"
    },
    {
      "start": 186.57,
      "end": 189.41,
      "text": "半导体存储芯片以及热门的股票"
    },
    {
      "start": 189.41,
      "end": 191.43,
      "text": "遭受到集体的抛压"
    },
    {
      "start": 191.43,
      "end": 196.63,
      "text": "这是我们这个月就仿佛经历了一轮股灾一样"
    },
    {
      "start": 196.63,
      "end": 197.85,
      "text": "但是你从指数上"
    },
    {
      "start": 197.85,
      "end": 199.23,
      "text": "它其实看不出来什么"
    },
    {
      "start": 199.23,
      "end": 202.33,
      "text": "包括说我们这个月7月份的原油"
    },
    {
      "start": 202.33,
      "end": 205.63,
      "text": "这个月的原油是涨了24.8%"
    },
    {
      "start": 205.63,
      "end": 205.81,
      "text": "呀"
    },
    {
      "start": 205.81,
      "end": 208.47,
      "text": "这个涨幅幅度是蛮夸张的"
    },
    {
      "start": 208.47,
      "end": 213.17,
      "text": "包括说10年期美债收益率全月也上升了32个几点"
    },
    {
      "start": 213.17,
      "end": 217.81,
      "text": "30年期美债收益率升到5.27%左右"
    },
    {
      "start": 217.81,
      "end": 220.57,
      "text": "这个是19年来的高位"
    },
    {
      "start": 220.57,
      "end": 222.23,
      "text": "因此整个7月"
    },
    {
      "start": 222.23,
      "end": 225.99,
      "text": "它给市场是留下了三道裂缝"
    },
    {
      "start": 225.99,
      "end": 228.93,
      "text": "而且是三道相互连接的裂缝"
    },
    {
      "start": 228.93,
      "end": 234.09,
      "text": "第一道是AI与半导体拥挤交易的裂缝"
    },
    {
      "start": 234.09,
      "end": 235.79,
      "text": "因为市场开放了三道裂缝"
    },
    {
      "start": 235.81,
      "end": 240.27,
      "text": "它开始重新审视大型科技公司的资本开支"
    },
    {
      "start": 240.27,
      "end": 242.15,
      "text": "AI基础设施的回报周期"
    },
    {
      "start": 242.15,
      "end": 244.43,
      "text": "以及云厂商的融资能力"
    },
    {
      "start": 244.43,
      "end": 246.57,
      "text": "包括说我们中国芯片"
    },
    {
      "start": 246.57,
      "end": 251.09,
      "text": "我们中国储能产能扩张对于行业定价的影响"
    },
    {
      "start": 251.09,
      "end": 256.05,
      "text": "因此此前高度集中的动量仓仓位开始松动"
    },
    {
      "start": 256.05,
      "end": 256.67,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 256.67,
      "end": 258.13,
      "text": "韩国的半导体"
    },
    {
      "start": 258.13,
      "end": 259.13,
      "text": "美股的芯片"
    },
    {
      "start": 259.13,
      "end": 262.41,
      "text": "以及高估值的科技股率先遭到抛售"
    },
    {
      "start": 262.41,
      "end": 264.57,
      "text": "而第二道裂缝"
    },
    {
      "start": 264.57,
      "end": 265.65,
      "text": "正是"
    },
    {
      "start": 265.65,
      "end": 268.29,
      "text": "油价重新推高了通胀预期"
    },
    {
      "start": 268.29,
      "end": 273.53,
      "text": "油价上涨带来的压力已经超过了能源板块本身"
    },
    {
      "start": 273.53,
      "end": 278.13,
      "text": "能源价格一旦向运输服务工资通胀预期传导的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 278.13,
      "end": 283.43,
      "text": "就会重新改变市场对美联储政策路径的一个判断"
    },
    {
      "start": 283.43,
      "end": 289.53,
      "text": "第三条裂缝就是长端美债正替美联储收紧金融条件"
    },
    {
      "start": 289.53,
      "end": 291.81,
      "text": "即使美联储没有加息"
    },
    {
      "start": 291.81,
      "end": 293.91,
      "text": "长期融资成本依然在上升"
    },
    {
      "start": 293.91,
      "end": 295.35,
      "text": "那么十年期美债收益率"
    },
    {
      "start": 295.35,
      "end": 296.43,
      "text": "占上4.7之后"
    },
    {
      "start": 296.43,
      "end": 298.29,
      "text": "市场就必须要面对一个现实"
    },
    {
      "start": 298.29,
      "end": 299.91,
      "text": "就是政策利率不动"
    },
    {
      "start": 299.91,
      "end": 303.07,
      "text": "并不代表着金融条件没有收紧"
    },
    {
      "start": 303.07,
      "end": 305.35,
      "text": "因此七月底的反弹"
    },
    {
      "start": 305.35,
      "end": 309.11,
      "text": "他也没有修复这三条裂缝"
    },
    {
      "start": 309.11,
      "end": 316.25,
      "text": "他只能说明企业的盈利仍然是在这个阶段能够对冲宏观压力"
    },
    {
      "start": 316.25,
      "end": 319.95,
      "text": "但没有办法去证明宏观压力已经消失"
    },
    {
      "start": 319.95,
      "end": 320.49,
      "text": "因此呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 320.49,
      "end": 325.35,
      "text": "市场是将七月份的抛压归于几个因素"
    },
    {
      "start": 325.35,
      "end": 326.57,
      "text": "首先呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 326.57,
      "end": 330.35,
      "text": "是我们中国存储芯片和光和设备的竞争加剧"
    },
    {
      "start": 330.35,
      "end": 333.77,
      "text": "AI基础设施循环融资受到的质疑"
    },
    {
      "start": 333.77,
      "end": 336.77,
      "text": "云厂商资本开支的可持续性下降"
    },
    {
      "start": 336.77,
      "end": 340.09,
      "text": "韩国半导体不值和仓位过度拥挤"
    },
    {
      "start": 340.09,
      "end": 345.51,
      "text": "这些就能够解释说明三星电子SK海力士"
    },
    {
      "start": 345.51,
      "end": 348.39,
      "text": "以及部分的AI资产为什么首先被卖出"
    },
    {
      "start": 348.39,
      "end": 351.79,
      "text": "但他就解释不了的问题就在于"
    },
    {
      "start": 351.79,
      "end": 354.59,
      "text": "为什么这几个条件能够在"
    },
    {
      "start": 354.59,
      "end": 359.07,
      "text": "同一时期造成如此剧烈的一个市场波动"
    },
    {
      "start": 359.07,
      "end": 362.37,
      "text": "因为真正改变风险环境"
    },
    {
      "start": 362.37,
      "end": 364.67,
      "text": "是我们最近一两周才发生的"
    },
    {
      "start": 364.67,
      "end": 367.99,
      "text": "油价美元包括美债收益率"
    },
    {
      "start": 367.99,
      "end": 371.21,
      "text": "它是最近这段时间才开始发生的"
    },
    {
      "start": 371.21,
      "end": 371.99,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 371.99,
      "end": 374.29,
      "text": "那周上上周五的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 374.29,
      "end": 375.23,
      "text": "我才发的"
    },
    {
      "start": 375.23,
      "end": 377.81,
      "text": "我专门发一条动态说"
    },
    {
      "start": 377.81,
      "end": 380.31,
      "text": "现在的宏观环境宏观数据"
    },
    {
      "start": 380.31,
      "end": 382.21,
      "text": "已经可以支撑下引游的暴跌"
    },
    {
      "start": 382.21,
      "end": 382.69,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 382.69,
      "end": 383.45,
      "text": "随后的一周"
    },
    {
      "start": 383.45,
      "end": 387.99,
      "text": "我们才看到最科技股迎来最强的一次跑"
    },
    {
      "start": 387.99,
      "end": 393.11,
      "text": "包括我们的一中天也是在最近才开始完成的补贴"
    },
    {
      "start": 393.11,
      "end": 398.55,
      "text": "所以其实是在最近市场上才开始交易这三件事情"
    },
    {
      "start": 398.55,
      "end": 400.15,
      "text": "也就是说油价上涨"
    },
    {
      "start": 400.15,
      "end": 400.39,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 400.39,
      "end": 402.43,
      "text": "它对应的是通胀回归"
    },
    {
      "start": 402.43,
      "end": 406.71,
      "text": "收益率上涨对应的是政策和期限溢价上升"
    },
    {
      "start": 406.71,
      "end": 410.49,
      "text": "那么美元走强对应的是全球融资成本的一个提高"
    },
    {
      "start": 410.49,
      "end": 411.37,
      "text": "由此"
    },
    {
      "start": 411.37,
      "end": 413.43,
      "text": "它形成了一个非常明显的"
    },
    {
      "start": 413.45,
      "end": 415.21,
      "text": "传导链条"
    },
    {
      "start": 415.21,
      "end": 416.77,
      "text": "也就是说油价上涨"
    },
    {
      "start": 417.99,
      "end": 420.89,
      "text": "它会推动通胀担忧升温"
    },
    {
      "start": 420.89,
      "end": 423.23,
      "text": "通胀担忧推高美债收益率"
    },
    {
      "start": 423.23,
      "end": 427.79,
      "text": "美债收益率上升带动了美元和全球资本成本提高"
    },
    {
      "start": 427.79,
      "end": 431.09,
      "text": "以至于高估值的AI资产承压"
    },
    {
      "start": 431.09,
      "end": 434.87,
      "text": "那么韩国这种高度拥挤的市场失去支撑"
    },
    {
      "start": 434.87,
      "end": 437.57,
      "text": "那么新闻这边又开始触发减仓"
    },
    {
      "start": 437.57,
      "end": 437.99,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 437.99,
      "end": 440.87,
      "text": "然后不停的播放这种消息"
    },
    {
      "start": 440.87,
      "end": 442.91,
      "text": "所以杠杆输回和最佳保证金"
    },
    {
      "start": 442.91,
      "end": 445.35,
      "text": "就进一步的放大了整个跌幅"
    },
    {
      "start": 445.35,
      "end": 447.53,
      "text": "因此整个七月的暴跌"
    },
    {
      "start": 447.53,
      "end": 449.29,
      "text": "它其实是经历了三个阶段"
    },
    {
      "start": 449.29,
      "end": 450.89,
      "text": "但这三个阶段"
    },
    {
      "start": 450.89,
      "end": 455.01,
      "text": "它的一个时间顺序上并不是这个样子形成的"
    },
    {
      "start": 455.01,
      "end": 457.93,
      "text": "我们在七月份结束了之后"
    },
    {
      "start": 457.93,
      "end": 459.21,
      "text": "我们回过头来看"
    },
    {
      "start": 459.21,
      "end": 461.45,
      "text": "它形成一个传递的链条"
    },
    {
      "start": 461.45,
      "end": 466.25,
      "text": "但是最开始砸盘的是因为韩国市场"
    },
    {
      "start": 466.25,
      "end": 466.77,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 466.77,
      "end": 470.03,
      "text": "是韩国市场最开始是高度集中融资盘拥挤"
    },
    {
      "start": 470.03,
      "end": 472.45,
      "text": "杠杆ETF密集以及流动性"
    },
    {
      "start": 472.91,
      "end": 475.55,
      "text": "不足引发的技术性的踩踏"
    },
    {
      "start": 475.55,
      "end": 477.15,
      "text": "这是最开始出现的"
    },
    {
      "start": 477.15,
      "end": 479.91,
      "text": "随后是我们中国竞争"
    },
    {
      "start": 479.91,
      "end": 482.09,
      "text": "包括新片定价这种消息"
    },
    {
      "start": 482.09,
      "end": 484.85,
      "text": "以及AI资本开支和循环融资"
    },
    {
      "start": 484.85,
      "end": 487.27,
      "text": "这是在月中发出现的事情"
    },
    {
      "start": 487.27,
      "end": 488.47,
      "text": "到了月底"
    },
    {
      "start": 488.47,
      "end": 490.57,
      "text": "然后是有价美元"
    },
    {
      "start": 490.57,
      "end": 491.99,
      "text": "美债收益进行恶化"
    },
    {
      "start": 491.99,
      "end": 494.79,
      "text": "全球流动性和估值环境发生变化"
    },
    {
      "start": 494.79,
      "end": 499.67,
      "text": "所以这是七月发生的一个时间顺序"
    },
    {
      "start": 499.67,
      "end": 501.23,
      "text": "那么我们就需要知道"
    },
    {
      "start": 501.23,
      "end": 502.89,
      "text": "为什么是韩国市场"
    },
    {
      "start": 502.91,
      "end": 504.69,
      "text": "最先倒下呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 504.69,
      "end": 509.31,
      "text": "因为韩国市场本身就和它的一个结构"
    },
    {
      "start": 509.31,
      "end": 510.57,
      "text": "是高度相关的"
    },
    {
      "start": 510.57,
      "end": 513.29,
      "text": "首先韩国高度依赖能源进口"
    },
    {
      "start": 513.29,
      "end": 514.47,
      "text": "油价上涨"
    },
    {
      "start": 514.47,
      "end": 516.83,
      "text": "它会同时恶化贸易条件"
    },
    {
      "start": 516.83,
      "end": 518.97,
      "text": "企业成本以及本币压力"
    },
    {
      "start": 518.97,
      "end": 519.79,
      "text": "其次呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 519.79,
      "end": 523.11,
      "text": "韩国股市已经从传统的出口周期市场"
    },
    {
      "start": 523.11,
      "end": 526.39,
      "text": "转变为高度集中的AI与存储芯片市场"
    },
    {
      "start": 526.39,
      "end": 529.17,
      "text": "三星电子SK海力士"
    },
    {
      "start": 529.17,
      "end": 531.63,
      "text": "以及相关产业链的指数的"
    },
    {
      "start": 531.63,
      "end": 532.89,
      "text": "权重的产业链的指数的权重的"
    },
    {
      "start": 532.91,
      "end": 533.99,
      "text": "是非常高的"
    },
    {
      "start": 533.99,
      "end": 536.43,
      "text": "那么外资散户杠杆资金"
    },
    {
      "start": 536.43,
      "end": 538.67,
      "text": "又集中在这些一样的方向"
    },
    {
      "start": 538.67,
      "end": 540.11,
      "text": "那么整个美元"
    },
    {
      "start": 540.11,
      "end": 541.85,
      "text": "包括美债收益率的上涨"
    },
    {
      "start": 541.85,
      "end": 545.09,
      "text": "就会对韩国市场形成双重打击"
    },
    {
      "start": 545.09,
      "end": 546.41,
      "text": "美元走强"
    },
    {
      "start": 546.41,
      "end": 548.15,
      "text": "它推动资本回流美国"
    },
    {
      "start": 548.15,
      "end": 549.37,
      "text": "美债收益率上涨"
    },
    {
      "start": 549.37,
      "end": 551.11,
      "text": "提高全球资本成本"
    },
    {
      "start": 551.11,
      "end": 553.53,
      "text": "对于高估值高杠杆的科技交易"
    },
    {
      "start": 553.53,
      "end": 554.69,
      "text": "是尤为不利的"
    },
    {
      "start": 554.69,
      "end": 557.35,
      "text": "韩国企业的产业价值"
    },
    {
      "start": 557.35,
      "end": 560.35,
      "text": "它已经是世界顶级的水平"
    },
    {
      "start": 560.35,
      "end": 562.89,
      "text": "但是韩国资本市场"
    },
    {
      "start": 562.91,
      "end": 564.33,
      "text": "市场的承载力"
    },
    {
      "start": 564.33,
      "end": 565.79,
      "text": "以及稳定定价"
    },
    {
      "start": 565.79,
      "end": 567.39,
      "text": "这些价值的能力"
    },
    {
      "start": 567.39,
      "end": 569.29,
      "text": "并没有同步升级"
    },
    {
      "start": 569.29,
      "end": 571.75,
      "text": "它不是一个世界级的市场"
    },
    {
      "start": 571.75,
      "end": 573.39,
      "text": "所以一旦发生这个问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 573.39,
      "end": 575.45,
      "text": "我们刚才看美股"
    },
    {
      "start": 575.45,
      "end": 578.11,
      "text": "整个指数稳如老狗"
    },
    {
      "start": 578.11,
      "end": 580.89,
      "text": "但韩国就不是这个样子"
    },
    {
      "start": 580.89,
      "end": 582.33,
      "text": "所以韩国市场"
    },
    {
      "start": 582.33,
      "end": 583.77,
      "text": "它本身的问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 583.77,
      "end": 585.97,
      "text": "就不在于值不值这个价"
    },
    {
      "start": 585.97,
      "end": 588.63,
      "text": "而在于它能不能守住这个价"
    },
    {
      "start": 588.63,
      "end": 590.53,
      "text": "一个成熟市场"
    },
    {
      "start": 590.53,
      "end": 592.63,
      "text": "既要能够把优质资产"
    },
    {
      "start": 592.63,
      "end": 594.27,
      "text": "推向更高的估值"
    },
    {
      "start": 594.27,
      "end": 596.51,
      "text": "也要能够在坏消息出现的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 596.51,
      "end": 597.83,
      "text": "通过正常的回撤"
    },
    {
      "start": 597.83,
      "end": 598.95,
      "text": "完成重新定价"
    },
    {
      "start": 598.95,
      "end": 601.51,
      "text": "如果上涨依赖产业进步"
    },
    {
      "start": 601.51,
      "end": 602.63,
      "text": "而下跌却需要"
    },
    {
      "start": 602.63,
      "end": 604.31,
      "text": "熔断限制交易政策"
    },
    {
      "start": 604.31,
      "end": 606.51,
      "text": "喊话或散户接盘"
    },
    {
      "start": 606.51,
      "end": 607.47,
      "text": "来维持秩序"
    },
    {
      "start": 607.47,
      "end": 608.65,
      "text": "那么就说明市场"
    },
    {
      "start": 608.65,
      "end": 610.15,
      "text": "创造财富的速度"
    },
    {
      "start": 610.15,
      "end": 612.97,
      "text": "已经远超于管理财富的能力"
    },
    {
      "start": 612.97,
      "end": 614.99,
      "text": "因此我对于韩国股市"
    },
    {
      "start": 614.99,
      "end": 617.07,
      "text": "在8月份的一个表现"
    },
    {
      "start": 617.07,
      "end": 620.15,
      "text": "我认为它肯定会出现暴力反弹"
    },
    {
      "start": 620.15,
      "end": 621.41,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 621.41,
      "end": 622.51,
      "text": "在月初的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 622.63,
      "end": 623.85,
      "text": "会出现暴力反弹"
    },
    {
      "start": 623.85,
      "end": 626.59,
      "text": "但很难立即完成微型反转"
    },
    {
      "start": 626.59,
      "end": 628.77,
      "text": "所以它更可能的路径"
    },
    {
      "start": 628.77,
      "end": 630.15,
      "text": "就是急跌"
    },
    {
      "start": 630.15,
      "end": 631.49,
      "text": "急速反弹"
    },
    {
      "start": 631.49,
      "end": 632.53,
      "text": "宽幅震荡"
    },
    {
      "start": 632.53,
      "end": 635.61,
      "text": "但它仍然是全球AI风险"
    },
    {
      "start": 635.61,
      "end": 637.69,
      "text": "偏好最敏感的一个先行指标"
    },
    {
      "start": 637.69,
      "end": 639.91,
      "text": "所以我们再回过头"
    },
    {
      "start": 639.91,
      "end": 641.19,
      "text": "来看一下美联储"
    },
    {
      "start": 641.19,
      "end": 644.13,
      "text": "因为7月美联储的一个会议"
    },
    {
      "start": 644.13,
      "end": 645.25,
      "text": "最重要的信息"
    },
    {
      "start": 645.25,
      "end": 646.63,
      "text": "就是说美联储"
    },
    {
      "start": 646.63,
      "end": 650.57,
      "text": "正在建立一种新的政策反应机制"
    },
    {
      "start": 650.57,
      "end": 651.87,
      "text": "也就是说让市场"
    },
    {
      "start": 651.87,
      "end": 652.61,
      "text": "先动强"
    },
    {
      "start": 652.63,
      "end": 657.23,
      "text": "让债券市场替美联储完成一部分的紧缩"
    },
    {
      "start": 657.23,
      "end": 660.35,
      "text": "再决定是否要亲自加息"
    },
    {
      "start": 660.35,
      "end": 661.95,
      "text": "因为沃尔斯反复强调"
    },
    {
      "start": 661.95,
      "end": 663.45,
      "text": "就过去一段时间"
    },
    {
      "start": 663.45,
      "end": 666.03,
      "text": "整条美债收益率"
    },
    {
      "start": 666.03,
      "end": 669.07,
      "text": "曲线的民意利率和实际利率都明显上升"
    },
    {
      "start": 669.07,
      "end": 669.89,
      "text": "也就是说"
    },
    {
      "start": 669.89,
      "end": 672.79,
      "text": "美联储虽然没有调整政策利率"
    },
    {
      "start": 672.79,
      "end": 675.33,
      "text": "但市场却通过长端收益率"
    },
    {
      "start": 675.33,
      "end": 677.21,
      "text": "已经完成了部分收紧"
    },
    {
      "start": 677.21,
      "end": 678.77,
      "text": "这也就解释了"
    },
    {
      "start": 678.77,
      "end": 681.85,
      "text": "为什么多数委员能够选择维持利率"
    },
    {
      "start": 681.85,
      "end": 682.61,
      "text": "因为美联储的政策利率"
    },
    {
      "start": 682.63,
      "end": 687.43,
      "text": "因为委员会会认定通胀的风险已经解除"
    },
    {
      "start": 687.43,
      "end": 690.97,
      "text": "也没有因为单月的CPI降温"
    },
    {
      "start": 690.97,
      "end": 692.41,
      "text": "而彻底改变判断"
    },
    {
      "start": 692.41,
      "end": 694.15,
      "text": "所以更接近的实际情况"
    },
    {
      "start": 694.15,
      "end": 696.43,
      "text": "就是金融市场已经主动收紧"
    },
    {
      "start": 696.43,
      "end": 699.57,
      "text": "那么美联储暂时选择观望"
    },
    {
      "start": 699.57,
      "end": 702.63,
      "text": "长端利率能否压低需求与通胀"
    },
    {
      "start": 703.27,
      "end": 706.09,
      "text": "这就形成一个非常重要的反升性关系"
    },
    {
      "start": 706.09,
      "end": 707.53,
      "text": "就市场越强"
    },
    {
      "start": 707.53,
      "end": 709.95,
      "text": "那么美联储越有必要加息"
    },
    {
      "start": 709.95,
      "end": 711.45,
      "text": "市场越弱"
    },
    {
      "start": 711.45,
      "end": 712.45,
      "text": "金融条件越紧张"
    },
    {
      "start": 712.63,
      "end": 715.93,
      "text": "那么美联储就越有理由继续等待"
    },
    {
      "start": 715.93,
      "end": 718.69,
      "text": "如果8月的美股大涨"
    },
    {
      "start": 718.69,
      "end": 719.63,
      "text": "美元走弱"
    },
    {
      "start": 719.63,
      "end": 721.27,
      "text": "美债收益率明显回弱"
    },
    {
      "start": 721.27,
      "end": 723.05,
      "text": "金融条件重新宽松"
    },
    {
      "start": 723.05,
      "end": 725.47,
      "text": "那么美联储就认为"
    },
    {
      "start": 725.47,
      "end": 728.25,
      "text": "加息的必要性反而会上升"
    },
    {
      "start": 728.25,
      "end": 730.55,
      "text": "如果股市下跌"
    },
    {
      "start": 730.55,
      "end": 732.27,
      "text": "长期收益率维持高位"
    },
    {
      "start": 732.27,
      "end": 733.55,
      "text": "信用条件继续收紧"
    },
    {
      "start": 733.55,
      "end": 735.35,
      "text": "那么美联储可以认为"
    },
    {
      "start": 735.35,
      "end": 737.39,
      "text": "市场已经在发挥作用"
    },
    {
      "start": 737.39,
      "end": 739.25,
      "text": "那么就没有必要立即加息"
    },
    {
      "start": 739.25,
      "end": 742.19,
      "text": "因此9月是否加息呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 742.19,
      "end": 742.49,
      "text": "它是否会加息呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 742.49,
      "end": 744.63,
      "text": "它取决于数据公布之后"
    },
    {
      "start": 744.63,
      "end": 746.27,
      "text": "市场如何进行一个定价"
    },
    {
      "start": 746.27,
      "end": 747.21,
      "text": "也就是说"
    },
    {
      "start": 747.21,
      "end": 748.69,
      "text": "沃石本身"
    },
    {
      "start": 748.69,
      "end": 751.97,
      "text": "它也不是关注某一个月的CPR"
    },
    {
      "start": 751.97,
      "end": 754.89,
      "text": "它需要关注是通胀是否"
    },
    {
      "start": 754.89,
      "end": 756.81,
      "text": "具有持续性扩散性"
    },
    {
      "start": 756.81,
      "end": 760.23,
      "text": "以及冲击是否能够从能源"
    },
    {
      "start": 760.23,
      "end": 762.05,
      "text": "或资本品传导到"
    },
    {
      "start": 762.05,
      "end": 763.47,
      "text": "更广泛的一个价格"
    },
    {
      "start": 763.47,
      "end": 764.39,
      "text": "油价上涨"
    },
    {
      "start": 764.39,
      "end": 767.21,
      "text": "它未必能够立刻触发加息"
    },
    {
      "start": 767.21,
      "end": 770.75,
      "text": "因为危险的是油价上涨"
    },
    {
      "start": 770.75,
      "end": 772.21,
      "text": "然后传导到的"
    },
    {
      "start": 772.49,
      "end": 775.05,
      "text": "会出服务工资以及通胀预期"
    },
    {
      "start": 775.05,
      "end": 778.49,
      "text": "同样AI基础设施存储芯片"
    },
    {
      "start": 778.49,
      "end": 781.37,
      "text": "逻辑芯片电力数据中心成本上涨"
    },
    {
      "start": 781.37,
      "end": 784.41,
      "text": "也可能从科技和行业的问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 784.41,
      "end": 786.93,
      "text": "演变为资本品通胀问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 786.93,
      "end": 788.33,
      "text": "AI需求越强"
    },
    {
      "start": 788.33,
      "end": 791.05,
      "text": "对企业的收入越有利"
    },
    {
      "start": 791.05,
      "end": 794.49,
      "text": "但需求如果强到持续抬高芯片"
    },
    {
      "start": 794.49,
      "end": 795.87,
      "text": "设备和能源价格"
    },
    {
      "start": 795.87,
      "end": 799.29,
      "text": "那么也可能通过利率反过来压制"
    },
    {
      "start": 799.29,
      "end": 801.71,
      "text": "科技股的估值"
    },
    {
      "start": 801.71,
      "end": 802.49,
      "text": "所以从"
    },
    {
      "start": 802.49,
      "end": 804.31,
      "text": "这一个框架看了"
    },
    {
      "start": 804.31,
      "end": 807.17,
      "text": "它就意味着美联储的看跌期权"
    },
    {
      "start": 807.17,
      "end": 808.07,
      "text": "它在变贵"
    },
    {
      "start": 808.07,
      "end": 812.35,
      "text": "美联储它仍然是在保护金融体系"
    },
    {
      "start": 812.35,
      "end": 815.77,
      "text": "但却没有办法去保护资产价格"
    },
    {
      "start": 815.77,
      "end": 817.53,
      "text": "正常的估值压缩"
    },
    {
      "start": 817.53,
      "end": 818.61,
      "text": "杠杆平仓"
    },
    {
      "start": 818.61,
      "end": 821.07,
      "text": "长端的收益率上涨和股市回调"
    },
    {
      "start": 821.07,
      "end": 824.95,
      "text": "可能会被视为市场机制的一部分"
    },
    {
      "start": 824.95,
      "end": 827.09,
      "text": "那么高估值的科技股"
    },
    {
      "start": 827.09,
      "end": 828.35,
      "text": "长久期的债券"
    },
    {
      "start": 828.35,
      "end": 830.13,
      "text": "高杠杆动能策略"
    },
    {
      "start": 830.13,
      "end": 832.37,
      "text": "以及依赖低融资成本的企业"
    },
    {
      "start": 832.37,
      "end": 832.47,
      "text": "那么高估值的科技股"
    },
    {
      "start": 832.49,
      "end": 834.09,
      "text": "那么将会更容易受到冲击"
    },
    {
      "start": 834.09,
      "end": 836.45,
      "text": "也就是说未来的紧缩"
    },
    {
      "start": 836.45,
      "end": 840.65,
      "text": "它不一定只是会通过加息去实现"
    },
    {
      "start": 840.65,
      "end": 843.29,
      "text": "资产负债表的政策"
    },
    {
      "start": 843.29,
      "end": 845.93,
      "text": "它可能会成为第二个路线"
    },
    {
      "start": 845.93,
      "end": 847.33,
      "text": "政策利率不动"
    },
    {
      "start": 847.33,
      "end": 849.21,
      "text": "不代表货币条件"
    },
    {
      "start": 849.21,
      "end": 850.77,
      "text": "它不会继续收紧"
    },
    {
      "start": 850.77,
      "end": 853.93,
      "text": "因为8月是缺少FOMC会议的"
    },
    {
      "start": 853.93,
      "end": 857.49,
      "text": "那么市场就会围绕着整个经济数据"
    },
    {
      "start": 857.49,
      "end": 860.47,
      "text": "企业财报和央行的表态"
    },
    {
      "start": 860.47,
      "end": 862.47,
      "text": "不断调整9月的一个情况"
    },
    {
      "start": 862.49,
      "end": 863.09,
      "text": "政策预期"
    },
    {
      "start": 863.09,
      "end": 867.39,
      "text": "大致我们可以将它分为三种情况"
    },
    {
      "start": 867.39,
      "end": 870.55,
      "text": "第一种就是月初的超跌修复和二次探底"
    },
    {
      "start": 870.55,
      "end": 873.63,
      "text": "也就是说我们在7月的最后一周"
    },
    {
      "start": 873.63,
      "end": 877.01,
      "text": "已经完成了第一轮剧烈的驱钢杆"
    },
    {
      "start": 877.01,
      "end": 879.09,
      "text": "那么半导体动量策略"
    },
    {
      "start": 879.09,
      "end": 881.03,
      "text": "和韩国的芯片股的卖盘"
    },
    {
      "start": 881.03,
      "end": 882.21,
      "text": "得到一定的释放"
    },
    {
      "start": 882.21,
      "end": 883.75,
      "text": "包括微软"
    },
    {
      "start": 883.75,
      "end": 884.41,
      "text": "MetaBot"
    },
    {
      "start": 884.41,
      "end": 886.61,
      "text": "亚马逊等大型科技公司的业绩"
    },
    {
      "start": 886.61,
      "end": 888.37,
      "text": "也证明AI需求和商业化"
    },
    {
      "start": 888.37,
      "end": 889.99,
      "text": "并没有出现问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 889.99,
      "end": 892.13,
      "text": "因此8月初"
    },
    {
      "start": 892.13,
      "end": 895.53,
      "text": "我们是仍然能够看到出现一轮较强的修复"
    },
    {
      "start": 895.53,
      "end": 901.65,
      "text": "但这轮修复首先是对于极端超卖和空头拥挤的一个纠正"
    },
    {
      "start": 901.65,
      "end": 903.93,
      "text": "不代表中期的趋势已经反转"
    },
    {
      "start": 903.93,
      "end": 906.73,
      "text": "我们只能看超跌修复"
    },
    {
      "start": 906.73,
      "end": 909.71,
      "text": "所以对于真正的止跌信号"
    },
    {
      "start": 909.71,
      "end": 911.61,
      "text": "我们需要看两个特征"
    },
    {
      "start": 911.61,
      "end": 915.37,
      "text": "首先是利空出现后不再创新低"
    },
    {
      "start": 915.37,
      "end": 918.95,
      "text": "好消息出现后能够连续上涨"
    },
    {
      "start": 918.95,
      "end": 920.37,
      "text": "并守住收盘"
    },
    {
      "start": 920.77,
      "end": 921.93,
      "text": "如果半导体"
    },
    {
      "start": 921.93,
      "end": 924.21,
      "text": "只因某一天的空头回补大涨"
    },
    {
      "start": 924.21,
      "end": 925.51,
      "text": "第二天又迅速回落"
    },
    {
      "start": 925.51,
      "end": 928.89,
      "text": "那么市场它会仍然处于去杠杆的过程当中"
    },
    {
      "start": 928.89,
      "end": 932.39,
      "text": "第二种就会发生在8月中旬"
    },
    {
      "start": 932.39,
      "end": 933.65,
      "text": "也就是说宏观数据"
    },
    {
      "start": 933.65,
      "end": 935.15,
      "text": "它会重新夺回定价权"
    },
    {
      "start": 935.15,
      "end": 938.63,
      "text": "8月7号会公布飞龙就业"
    },
    {
      "start": 938.63,
      "end": 942.19,
      "text": "那么它会决定市场是否重新交易加息"
    },
    {
      "start": 942.19,
      "end": 945.09,
      "text": "我们需要看的就是说"
    },
    {
      "start": 945.09,
      "end": 946.71,
      "text": "新增就业人数"
    },
    {
      "start": 946.71,
      "end": 948.43,
      "text": "然后还有失业率"
    },
    {
      "start": 948.43,
      "end": 950.99,
      "text": "平时时薪以及前置修正"
    },
    {
      "start": 950.99,
      "end": 951.91,
      "text": "如果就这些人"
    },
    {
      "start": 951.93,
      "end": 953.17,
      "text": "就业强劲"
    },
    {
      "start": 953.17,
      "end": 954.65,
      "text": "工资偏热"
    },
    {
      "start": 954.65,
      "end": 958.49,
      "text": "那么我们就可以推断出市场会重新交易高利率"
    },
    {
      "start": 958.49,
      "end": 960.65,
      "text": "如果就业温和工资放缓"
    },
    {
      "start": 960.65,
      "end": 962.93,
      "text": "那么就会有利于科技股"
    },
    {
      "start": 962.93,
      "end": 965.37,
      "text": "也就是风险资产的一个上涨"
    },
    {
      "start": 965.37,
      "end": 967.69,
      "text": "那么8月12号到14号"
    },
    {
      "start": 967.69,
      "end": 969.09,
      "text": "它会公布CPI"
    },
    {
      "start": 969.09,
      "end": 971.57,
      "text": "包括PPI以及零售销售"
    },
    {
      "start": 971.57,
      "end": 975.29,
      "text": "这些数据将会进一步的检验通胀与消费"
    },
    {
      "start": 975.29,
      "end": 977.21,
      "text": "那么最有利的组合"
    },
    {
      "start": 977.21,
      "end": 979.21,
      "text": "就是就业温和工资放缓"
    },
    {
      "start": 979.21,
      "end": 981.53,
      "text": "CPI与PPI同步降温"
    },
    {
      "start": 981.93,
      "end": 983.25,
      "text": "那么在这种情况下"
    },
    {
      "start": 983.25,
      "end": 984.79,
      "text": "市场可以同时交易"
    },
    {
      "start": 984.79,
      "end": 987.29,
      "text": "经济没有衰退和通胀继续下降"
    },
    {
      "start": 987.29,
      "end": 988.57,
      "text": "美债收益率"
    },
    {
      "start": 988.57,
      "end": 991.97,
      "text": "美元和科技股的估值压力就会缓解"
    },
    {
      "start": 991.97,
      "end": 994.21,
      "text": "那么比较偏硬的组合"
    },
    {
      "start": 994.21,
      "end": 995.91,
      "text": "就是就业强劲"
    },
    {
      "start": 995.91,
      "end": 997.05,
      "text": "工资偏热"
    },
    {
      "start": 997.05,
      "end": 999.01,
      "text": "通胀再次超预期"
    },
    {
      "start": 999.01,
      "end": 1002.61,
      "text": "那么市场就会重新提高加息概率"
    },
    {
      "start": 1002.61,
      "end": 1004.79,
      "text": "美债收益率和美元走强"
    },
    {
      "start": 1004.79,
      "end": 1007.67,
      "text": "那么高科技股的这种估值"
    },
    {
      "start": 1007.67,
      "end": 1009.37,
      "text": "就自然会承压"
    },
    {
      "start": 1009.37,
      "end": 1010.09,
      "text": "金融"
    },
    {
      "start": 1010.09,
      "end": 1011.07,
      "text": "能源"
    },
    {
      "start": 1011.07,
      "end": 1012.83,
      "text": "以及部分的传统的板块"
    },
    {
      "start": 1012.83,
      "end": 1014.95,
      "text": "它会相对更受欢迎"
    },
    {
      "start": 1014.95,
      "end": 1016.89,
      "text": "那么最危险的组合"
    },
    {
      "start": 1016.89,
      "end": 1018.33,
      "text": "就是就业明显走弱"
    },
    {
      "start": 1018.33,
      "end": 1019.49,
      "text": "而通胀仍然偏热"
    },
    {
      "start": 1019.49,
      "end": 1022.31,
      "text": "那么这也就意味着增长降温"
    },
    {
      "start": 1022.31,
      "end": 1025.17,
      "text": "美联储却缺乏宽松空间"
    },
    {
      "start": 1025.17,
      "end": 1028.65,
      "text": "市场将会开启交易滞胀"
    },
    {
      "start": 1028.65,
      "end": 1031.93,
      "text": "股票债券都会同时沉压"
    },
    {
      "start": 1031.93,
      "end": 1034.31,
      "text": "美元会再度走强"
    },
    {
      "start": 1034.31,
      "end": 1038.53,
      "text": "黄金它会因为流动性的需求"
    },
    {
      "start": 1038.53,
      "end": 1040.07,
      "text": "而被再度抛售"
    },
    {
      "start": 1040.07,
      "end": 1041.05,
      "text": "抛售完后"
    },
    {
      "start": 1041.07,
      "end": 1045.75,
      "text": "它是有可能会获得避险资金需求的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1045.75,
      "end": 1049.13,
      "text": "所以整个8月的风险"
    },
    {
      "start": 1049.13,
      "end": 1051.33,
      "text": "它就在于增长和通胀"
    },
    {
      "start": 1051.33,
      "end": 1054.03,
      "text": "是否给出彼此一个矛盾的答案"
    },
    {
      "start": 1054.03,
      "end": 1055.73,
      "text": "最后一种就是8月底"
    },
    {
      "start": 1055.73,
      "end": 1058.11,
      "text": "也就是说8月底"
    },
    {
      "start": 1058.11,
      "end": 1060.85,
      "text": "它会集中出现第二季度GDP修正值"
    },
    {
      "start": 1060.85,
      "end": 1061.77,
      "text": "PCE通胀"
    },
    {
      "start": 1061.77,
      "end": 1063.93,
      "text": "以及英伟达财报和杰克逊霍尔会议"
    },
    {
      "start": 1063.93,
      "end": 1065.15,
      "text": "英伟达的财报"
    },
    {
      "start": 1065.15,
      "end": 1066.27,
      "text": "它需要回答"
    },
    {
      "start": 1066.27,
      "end": 1069.89,
      "text": "客户是否继续扩大AI资本开支"
    },
    {
      "start": 1069.89,
      "end": 1071.05,
      "text": "数据中"
    },
    {
      "start": 1071.07,
      "end": 1076.25,
      "text": "重新收入能否覆盖不断提高的市场预期"
    },
    {
      "start": 1076.25,
      "end": 1081.33,
      "text": "毛利率是否受到竞争和成本的一个侵蚀"
    },
    {
      "start": 1081.33,
      "end": 1085.61,
      "text": "云厂商的融资和现金流能否支撑下一轮投入"
    },
    {
      "start": 1085.61,
      "end": 1090.25,
      "text": "中国芯片和存储产能是否开始影响行业定价"
    },
    {
      "start": 1090.25,
      "end": 1095.25,
      "text": "届时整个股价的反应会比财报数字更为重要"
    },
    {
      "start": 1095.25,
      "end": 1100.19,
      "text": "如果英伟达的出现了明显的超预期"
    },
    {
      "start": 1100.19,
      "end": 1100.93,
      "text": "那么股价同步了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1100.93,
      "end": 1104.01,
      "text": "那么就说明AI信心开始修复"
    },
    {
      "start": 1104.01,
      "end": 1108.03,
      "text": "韩国半导体和全球芯片股会同时反弹"
    },
    {
      "start": 1108.03,
      "end": 1110.93,
      "text": "如果财报超预期"
    },
    {
      "start": 1110.93,
      "end": 1113.71,
      "text": "但是股价却高开低走"
    },
    {
      "start": 1113.71,
      "end": 1115.03,
      "text": "甚至是下跌"
    },
    {
      "start": 1115.03,
      "end": 1119.47,
      "text": "这个时候市场整体释放的风险就会非常危险了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1119.47,
      "end": 1124.31,
      "text": "它会说明整个问题本身已经超出了企业业绩"
    },
    {
      "start": 1124.31,
      "end": 1126.37,
      "text": "包括说估值"
    },
    {
      "start": 1126.37,
      "end": 1129.25,
      "text": "仓位以及资本开支模式"
    },
    {
      "start": 1129.25,
      "end": 1130.91,
      "text": "都会受到影响"
    },
    {
      "start": 1130.93,
      "end": 1133.69,
      "text": "如果这件事情发生了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1133.69,
      "end": 1137.21,
      "text": "那么我们在7月底抄的底就绝对不会是底"
    },
    {
      "start": 1137.21,
      "end": 1138.83,
      "text": "再到杰克逊霍尔会议"
    },
    {
      "start": 1138.83,
      "end": 1141.71,
      "text": "它会影响市场对于9月政策的一个判断"
    },
    {
      "start": 1141.71,
      "end": 1145.85,
      "text": "我们重点应该放在金融创新是否改变"
    },
    {
      "start": 1145.85,
      "end": 1147.45,
      "text": "货币政策传导"
    },
    {
      "start": 1147.45,
      "end": 1150.67,
      "text": "技术进步如何影响生产率和潜在关系"
    },
    {
      "start": 1150.67,
      "end": 1155.61,
      "text": "以及沃尔什是否会借机调整市场对于9月会议的一个预期"
    },
    {
      "start": 1155.61,
      "end": 1158.73,
      "text": "如果届时通胀已经降温"
    },
    {
      "start": 1158.73,
      "end": 1160.91,
      "text": "那么会议它会有可能"
    },
    {
      "start": 1160.93,
      "end": 1163.33,
      "text": "成为安抚市场的窗口"
    },
    {
      "start": 1163.33,
      "end": 1167.23,
      "text": "如果油价工资PCE仍然偏热"
    },
    {
      "start": 1167.23,
      "end": 1171.07,
      "text": "那么就会成为新一轮鹰派定价的起点"
    },
    {
      "start": 1171.07,
      "end": 1175.65,
      "text": "所以8月的问题会比7月份更为复杂"
    },
    {
      "start": 1175.65,
      "end": 1178.91,
      "text": "我之前在6月份跟各位说过"
    },
    {
      "start": 1178.91,
      "end": 1181.81,
      "text": "我们今年下半年整体的宏观环境会非常糟糕"
    },
    {
      "start": 1181.81,
      "end": 1182.79,
      "text": "到了8月"
    },
    {
      "start": 1182.79,
      "end": 1186.55,
      "text": "整个风险它会从局部走向扩散"
    },
    {
      "start": 1186.55,
      "end": 1189.87,
      "text": "市场最初面对的问题是"
    },
    {
      "start": 1189.87,
      "end": 1190.91,
      "text": "AI板块内部的问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 1190.93,
      "end": 1196.51,
      "text": "也就是说大型科技公司是否持续提高资本开支"
    },
    {
      "start": 1196.51,
      "end": 1201.21,
      "text": "再到投资者开始质疑这些投入何时能够转换为收入"
    },
    {
      "start": 1198.9,
      "end": 1201.24,
      "text": "这些投入何时能够转换为收入"
    },
    {
      "start": 1201.24,
      "end": 1203.36,
      "text": "现金流以及自由现金流"
    },
    {
      "start": 1203.36,
      "end": 1206.66,
      "text": "半导体云计算和动量交易"
    },
    {
      "start": 1206.66,
      "end": 1207.6,
      "text": "率先被抛售"
    },
    {
      "start": 1207.6,
      "end": 1211.32,
      "text": "但工业金融医疗和部分的防疫板块"
    },
    {
      "start": 1211.32,
      "end": 1212.98,
      "text": "是仍然能够承接资金的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1212.98,
      "end": 1216.74,
      "text": "所以这一阶段是明显的局部问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 1216.74,
      "end": 1219.6,
      "text": "AI股票剧烈的波动"
    },
    {
      "start": 1219.6,
      "end": 1221.24,
      "text": "其他板块相对稳定"
    },
    {
      "start": 1221.24,
      "end": 1225.5,
      "text": "指数则能够被少数的权重股去拖住"
    },
    {
      "start": 1225.5,
      "end": 1228.78,
      "text": "但是到了整个8月份"
    },
    {
      "start": 1228.78,
      "end": 1231.12,
      "text": "这个风险结构是会发生变化的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1231.12,
      "end": 1233.2,
      "text": "因为油价的上涨"
    },
    {
      "start": 1233.2,
      "end": 1234.96,
      "text": "它会重新推高冲涨"
    },
    {
      "start": 1234.96,
      "end": 1236.84,
      "text": "美债收益率的上涨"
    },
    {
      "start": 1236.84,
      "end": 1238.72,
      "text": "又会明显压低估值"
    },
    {
      "start": 1238.72,
      "end": 1240.28,
      "text": "美元走强"
    },
    {
      "start": 1240.28,
      "end": 1241.92,
      "text": "它会收紧全球流动性"
    },
    {
      "start": 1241.92,
      "end": 1245.54,
      "text": "风险开始形成跨资产的一个传导"
    },
    {
      "start": 1245.54,
      "end": 1249.42,
      "text": "因为一旦科技股的估值被压了之后"
    },
    {
      "start": 1249.42,
      "end": 1250.52,
      "text": "科技股会"
    },
    {
      "start": 1250.52,
      "end": 1253.98,
      "text": "它们的下跌会触发动量资产减仓"
    },
    {
      "start": 1253.98,
      "end": 1257.72,
      "text": "那么减仓它就会继续影响"
    },
    {
      "start": 1257.72,
      "end": 1258.68,
      "text": "信用利差"
    },
    {
      "start": 1258.68,
      "end": 1261.54,
      "text": "以及汇率和其他的风险资产"
    },
    {
      "start": 1261.54,
      "end": 1264.16,
      "text": "这是一个传导的路径"
    },
    {
      "start": 1264.16,
      "end": 1265.7,
      "text": "传导路径不意味着"
    },
    {
      "start": 1265.7,
      "end": 1270.2,
      "text": "我们突然间有一天会看见这样的事情发生"
    },
    {
      "start": 1270.2,
      "end": 1272.68,
      "text": "而是说越来越多的资产"
    },
    {
      "start": 1272.68,
      "end": 1274.86,
      "text": "开始拥有自己的风险源"
    },
    {
      "start": 1274.86,
      "end": 1276.46,
      "text": "那么这些风险源"
    },
    {
      "start": 1276.46,
      "end": 1277.9,
      "text": "它又是相互连接的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1277.9,
      "end": 1280.3,
      "text": "AI可能因为资本开支的问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 1280.52,
      "end": 1281.52,
      "text": "下跌"
    },
    {
      "start": 1281.52,
      "end": 1284.56,
      "text": "那么债券可能因为通胀和财政风险下跌"
    },
    {
      "start": 1284.56,
      "end": 1289.28,
      "text": "黄金也可能认为实际的收益率和仓位的清理进行下跌"
    },
    {
      "start": 1289.28,
      "end": 1292.94,
      "text": "股票则有可能因为信用风险重新定价而下跌"
    },
    {
      "start": 1292.94,
      "end": 1295.84,
      "text": "所以过去它只有一个火场"
    },
    {
      "start": 1295.84,
      "end": 1299.32,
      "text": "那么现在就出现了多个彼此连接的火场"
    },
    {
      "start": 1299.32,
      "end": 1303.38,
      "text": "那么指数就无法去再掩盖内部的一个恶化"
    },
    {
      "start": 1303.38,
      "end": 1305.86,
      "text": "之前我们在7月份的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 1305.86,
      "end": 1307.9,
      "text": "它AI和半导体下跌的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 1307.9,
      "end": 1308.7,
      "text": "金融公寓"
    },
    {
      "start": 1308.7,
      "end": 1309.42,
      "text": "工业"
    },
    {
      "start": 1309.42,
      "end": 1309.86,
      "text": "医疗"
    },
    {
      "start": 1309.86,
      "end": 1310.44,
      "text": "消费板块"
    },
    {
      "start": 1310.44,
      "end": 1311.28,
      "text": "它可能会上涨"
    },
    {
      "start": 1311.28,
      "end": 1315.24,
      "text": "那么使得标普500最终只出现小幅的波动"
    },
    {
      "start": 1315.24,
      "end": 1318.06,
      "text": "但如果上涨股票越来越少"
    },
    {
      "start": 1318.06,
      "end": 1322.14,
      "text": "成交量越来越集中在少数的权重股"
    },
    {
      "start": 1322.14,
      "end": 1324.32,
      "text": "那么信用风险它会继续扩大"
    },
    {
      "start": 1324.32,
      "end": 1327.7,
      "text": "指数呢就没有办法继续稳定了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1327.7,
      "end": 1333.08,
      "text": "因此信用市场它会成为下一个关键的风险点"
    },
    {
      "start": 1333.08,
      "end": 1335.56,
      "text": "因为当前的美国"
    },
    {
      "start": 1335.56,
      "end": 1337.94,
      "text": "欧洲和新兴市场的信用债的估值"
    },
    {
      "start": 1337.94,
      "end": 1340.12,
      "text": "普遍处于较高的分位数"
    },
    {
      "start": 1340.12,
      "end": 1344.2,
      "text": "那么这样的情况的意思就代表着说"
    },
    {
      "start": 1344.2,
      "end": 1346.78,
      "text": "经济不会出现明显的衰弱"
    },
    {
      "start": 1346.78,
      "end": 1349.34,
      "text": "企业违约不会显著上升"
    },
    {
      "start": 1349.34,
      "end": 1352.2,
      "text": "高融资成本最终能够被消化"
    },
    {
      "start": 1352.2,
      "end": 1354.96,
      "text": "但如果AI循环融资"
    },
    {
      "start": 1354.96,
      "end": 1360.06,
      "text": "资本开支担保和高利率开始影响了企业资产负债表"
    },
    {
      "start": 1360.06,
      "end": 1363.54,
      "text": "那么风险就会从科技估值过高"
    },
    {
      "start": 1363.54,
      "end": 1367.24,
      "text": "进入到了现金流能否覆盖债务的阶段"
    },
    {
      "start": 1367.24,
      "end": 1369.96,
      "text": "所以我们需要去看信用市场"
    },
    {
      "start": 1370.12,
      "end": 1379.76,
      "text": "因为这是局部清算能否升级为系统扩散的一个非常重要的分界点"
    },
    {
      "start": 1379.76,
      "end": 1383.56,
      "text": "因此我们在整个8月份要进行观察"
    },
    {
      "start": 1383.56,
      "end": 1384.98,
      "text": "首先是美股"
    },
    {
      "start": 1384.98,
      "end": 1389.18,
      "text": "因为纳斯达克是率先跌幅比较多的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1389.18,
      "end": 1392.82,
      "text": "我们从纳斯达克的高点到这一轮的低点"
    },
    {
      "start": 1392.82,
      "end": 1393.8,
      "text": "我们看的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 1393.8,
      "end": 1396.7,
      "text": "它已经接近了一个10%的回调"
    },
    {
      "start": 1396.7,
      "end": 1397.26,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1397.26,
      "end": 1400.08,
      "text": "那么在上述跟各位聊完"
    },
    {
      "start": 1400.12,
      "end": 1404.54,
      "text": "之后我们就不能够把它认为是一个绝对的底部"
    },
    {
      "start": 1404.54,
      "end": 1407.82,
      "text": "更有可能是它会出现一轮超跌反弹"
    },
    {
      "start": 1407.82,
      "end": 1411.8600000000001,
      "text": "如果反弹它没办法打到中间的这种位置的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 1411.8600000000001,
      "end": 1415.58,
      "text": "那么就有可能会继续去测试低点"
    },
    {
      "start": 1415.58,
      "end": 1418.0,
      "text": "那么整体的一个回撤幅度"
    },
    {
      "start": 1418.0,
      "end": 1422.92,
      "text": "就会从10%的回撤继续向15%进行调整"
    },
    {
      "start": 1422.92,
      "end": 1426.78,
      "text": "也就是说纳斯达克它可能会到2300的一个位置"
    },
    {
      "start": 1426.78,
      "end": 1430.1,
      "text": "如果纳斯达克的反弹能够"
    },
    {
      "start": 1430.12,
      "end": 1431.5,
      "text": "维持在26000"
    },
    {
      "start": 1431.5,
      "end": 1433.5,
      "text": "我刚刚说23000"
    },
    {
      "start": 1433.5,
      "end": 1434.22,
      "text": "不是2300"
    },
    {
      "start": 1434.22,
      "end": 1436.56,
      "text": "如果它能够维持在26000"
    },
    {
      "start": 1436.56,
      "end": 1440.68,
      "text": "那么AI包括说芯片这些半导体"
    },
    {
      "start": 1440.68,
      "end": 1443.44,
      "text": "那么它会迎来一个"
    },
    {
      "start": 1443.44,
      "end": 1444.94,
      "text": "如果出现利好的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 1444.94,
      "end": 1447.34,
      "text": "那么它会迎来一个连续上涨的情况"
    },
    {
      "start": 1447.34,
      "end": 1449.8,
      "text": "然后对于标普500来讲"
    },
    {
      "start": 1449.8,
      "end": 1454.46,
      "text": "因为标普500是比纳斯达克要更扛揍的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1454.46,
      "end": 1456.82,
      "text": "因为大型的科技公司的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1456.82,
      "end": 1459.6,
      "text": "在它的一个指数当中权重比较高"
    },
    {
      "start": 1459.6,
      "end": 1460.1,
      "text": "但如果纳斯达克的反弹"
    },
    {
      "start": 1460.12,
      "end": 1463.1399999999999,
      "text": "如果AI芯片继续下行的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 1463.1399999999999,
      "end": 1466.3600000000001,
      "text": "那么它最终仍然会通过权重"
    },
    {
      "start": 1466.3600000000001,
      "end": 1468.56,
      "text": "盈利预期以及风险偏好"
    },
    {
      "start": 1468.56,
      "end": 1469.98,
      "text": "向标普500进行传导"
    },
    {
      "start": 1469.98,
      "end": 1474.0,
      "text": "所以如果标普500一旦破这个区间"
    },
    {
      "start": 1474.0,
      "end": 1477.02,
      "text": "那么就意味着整体的风险"
    },
    {
      "start": 1477.02,
      "end": 1481.26,
      "text": "它从科技股扩散到了整个美股大盘"
    },
    {
      "start": 1481.26,
      "end": 1483.84,
      "text": "那么道琼斯就是最后一道防线"
    },
    {
      "start": 1483.84,
      "end": 1488.1399999999999,
      "text": "因为道琼斯当中的金融工业医疗和消费权重最高"
    },
    {
      "start": 1488.1399999999999,
      "end": 1489.26,
      "text": "理论上呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 1489.26,
      "end": 1493.48,
      "text": "它是能够承接从科技当中流出的资金"
    },
    {
      "start": 1493.48,
      "end": 1497.48,
      "text": "如果道琼斯它仍然跌破的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 1497.48,
      "end": 1501.62,
      "text": "这就意味着整个市场交易的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1501.62,
      "end": 1503.4,
      "text": "就不仅仅是AI的股市"
    },
    {
      "start": 1503.4,
      "end": 1505.82,
      "text": "而是高油价高利率高通胀"
    },
    {
      "start": 1505.82,
      "end": 1508.0,
      "text": "以及经济前景共同恶化"
    },
    {
      "start": 1508.0,
      "end": 1511.4,
      "text": "所以这三个指数"
    },
    {
      "start": 1511.4,
      "end": 1513.98,
      "text": "它会形成一个递进的关系"
    },
    {
      "start": 1513.98,
      "end": 1516.04,
      "text": "纳斯达克对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1516.04,
      "end": 1517.44,
      "text": "看他能不能顶住"
    },
    {
      "start": 1517.44,
      "end": 1518.34,
      "text": "他是第一道枪"
    },
    {
      "start": 1519.26,
      "end": 1520.38,
      "text": "第一道枪能不能顶住"
    },
    {
      "start": 1520.38,
      "end": 1522.1,
      "text": "然后看标普500"
    },
    {
      "start": 1522.1,
      "end": 1523.8600000000001,
      "text": "标普500看完之后看到道琼斯"
    },
    {
      "start": 1523.8600000000001,
      "end": 1526.02,
      "text": "如果这三道枪都没顶住"
    },
    {
      "start": 1526.02,
      "end": 1526.68,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1526.68,
      "end": 1527.98,
      "text": "那大家该休息"
    },
    {
      "start": 1527.98,
      "end": 1529.26,
      "text": "该休息休息了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1529.26,
      "end": 1529.9,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1529.9,
      "end": 1532.26,
      "text": "今年基本上也没有什么大的机会了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1532.26,
      "end": 1533.34,
      "text": "所以其次呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 1533.34,
      "end": 1535.6,
      "text": "我们是去看美债收益率"
    },
    {
      "start": 1535.6,
      "end": 1538.24,
      "text": "十年期现在已经占上了4.7"
    },
    {
      "start": 1538.24,
      "end": 1540.24,
      "text": "所以我们要持续去观察"
    },
    {
      "start": 1540.24,
      "end": 1542.48,
      "text": "如果说它能够往回落"
    },
    {
      "start": 1542.48,
      "end": 1544.18,
      "text": "落到4.6"
    },
    {
      "start": 1544.18,
      "end": 1545.66,
      "text": "甚至是4.5区间"
    },
    {
      "start": 1545.66,
      "end": 1548.94,
      "text": "那么就说明我们整体一个科技股的估值"
    },
    {
      "start": 1548.94,
      "end": 1549.24,
      "text": "是能够下降的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1549.26,
      "end": 1550.04,
      "text": "是能够持续修复的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1550.04,
      "end": 1550.72,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1550.72,
      "end": 1553.72,
      "text": "它如果继续在4.7到4.8区间"
    },
    {
      "start": 1553.72,
      "end": 1557.8600000000001,
      "text": "这个时候也并不是说风险一定会出现"
    },
    {
      "start": 1557.8600000000001,
      "end": 1560.6399999999999,
      "text": "它指数是仍然可能会上涨的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1560.6399999999999,
      "end": 1563.16,
      "text": "但是需要通过非常好"
    },
    {
      "start": 1563.16,
      "end": 1565.84,
      "text": "但需要通过利好进行一个刺激"
    },
    {
      "start": 1565.84,
      "end": 1568.84,
      "text": "但如果十年期美债收益率"
    },
    {
      "start": 1568.84,
      "end": 1570.7,
      "text": "涨到4.8以上"
    },
    {
      "start": 1570.7,
      "end": 1573.7,
      "text": "这就属于非常大的风险了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1573.7,
      "end": 1577.34,
      "text": "市场就会同时交易高通胀"
    },
    {
      "start": 1577.34,
      "end": 1577.96,
      "text": "加息"
    },
    {
      "start": 1577.96,
      "end": 1579.24,
      "text": "以及期限溢价"
    },
    {
      "start": 1579.26,
      "end": 1581.62,
      "text": "所以一旦超过4.8"
    },
    {
      "start": 1581.62,
      "end": 1584.5,
      "text": "那么即使经济数据转弱"
    },
    {
      "start": 1584.5,
      "end": 1586.02,
      "text": "长端收益率呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 1586.02,
      "end": 1589.8600000000001,
      "text": "它也未必能够迅速回到过去的低位"
    },
    {
      "start": 1589.8600000000001,
      "end": 1593.1399999999999,
      "text": "因为这种时候哪怕美联储不加息"
    },
    {
      "start": 1593.1399999999999,
      "end": 1596.02,
      "text": "它的整个长期的融资成本也已经上涨"
    },
    {
      "start": 1596.02,
      "end": 1597.62,
      "text": "到了整个原油"
    },
    {
      "start": 1597.62,
      "end": 1601.0,
      "text": "原油今天晚上特朗普不是又发消息了吗"
    },
    {
      "start": 1601.0,
      "end": 1601.26,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1601.26,
      "end": 1603.38,
      "text": "因为原油这一波上涨"
    },
    {
      "start": 1603.38,
      "end": 1605.3600000000001,
      "text": "就是因为特朗普说要搞事情"
    },
    {
      "start": 1605.3600000000001,
      "end": 1606.6399999999999,
      "text": "今天他又不搞了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1606.6399999999999,
      "end": 1607.32,
      "text": "又塔扣了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1607.32,
      "end": 1609.24,
      "text": "但是原油从趋势上来说"
    },
    {
      "start": 1609.26,
      "end": 1613.58,
      "text": "它整个8月上涨是能够涨的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1613.58,
      "end": 1618.78,
      "text": "因为它的趋势算是在8月份比较明确的资产了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1618.78,
      "end": 1621.76,
      "text": "因为当前的供应"
    },
    {
      "start": 1621.76,
      "end": 1623.8600000000001,
      "text": "它没有完全中断"
    },
    {
      "start": 1623.8600000000001,
      "end": 1624.38,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1624.38,
      "end": 1627.8600000000001,
      "text": "所以油价会进行一个反复的回落"
    },
    {
      "start": 1627.8600000000001,
      "end": 1632.28,
      "text": "但是运输和库存的缓冲"
    },
    {
      "start": 1632.28,
      "end": 1633.58,
      "text": "它是在减少的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1633.58,
      "end": 1636.56,
      "text": "你每一次冲突的升级"
    },
    {
      "start": 1636.56,
      "end": 1639.24,
      "text": "都可能会带来比上一次更大"
    },
    {
      "start": 1639.26,
      "end": 1641.08,
      "text": "更强的一个价格的调整"
    },
    {
      "start": 1641.08,
      "end": 1644.5,
      "text": "因为美国的商业原油库存下降"
    },
    {
      "start": 1644.5,
      "end": 1646.18,
      "text": "战略石油储备减少"
    },
    {
      "start": 1646.18,
      "end": 1648.42,
      "text": "部分的航运通道异常"
    },
    {
      "start": 1648.42,
      "end": 1652.1,
      "text": "以及欧派克增产规模相对有限"
    },
    {
      "start": 1652.1,
      "end": 1657.78,
      "text": "这就共同构成了它油价下方的支撑是在上涨的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1657.78,
      "end": 1661.38,
      "text": "所以美国原油80美元"
    },
    {
      "start": 1661.38,
      "end": 1667.82,
      "text": "它已经从以前的一个压力位转变为了多坤的一个分界线"
    },
    {
      "start": 1667.82,
      "end": 1669.06,
      "text": "之前的压力位"
    },
    {
      "start": 1669.06,
      "end": 1671.3,
      "text": "它现在涨到了90美元"
    },
    {
      "start": 1671.3,
      "end": 1674.18,
      "text": "90到95附近"
    },
    {
      "start": 1674.18,
      "end": 1677.26,
      "text": "那么它就是油价的下一个目标了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1677.26,
      "end": 1678.12,
      "text": "目标位了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1678.12,
      "end": 1681.6,
      "text": "如果油价它站稳90美元"
    },
    {
      "start": 1681.6,
      "end": 1684.72,
      "text": "并进一步向95美元进发"
    },
    {
      "start": 1684.72,
      "end": 1686.6399999999999,
      "text": "甚至突破100美元"
    },
    {
      "start": 1686.6399999999999,
      "end": 1691.68,
      "text": "这就一定会造成美股美债美元的第二轮的联动冲击"
    },
    {
      "start": 1691.68,
      "end": 1694.92,
      "text": "所以我们想让它再回到以前的对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1694.92,
      "end": 1696.54,
      "text": "60美元这种时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 1696.54,
      "end": 1698.88,
      "text": "我在8月份不太能够看得见"
    },
    {
      "start": 1698.88,
      "end": 1701.88,
      "text": "因此整个8月份的美元"
    },
    {
      "start": 1701.88,
      "end": 1705.54,
      "text": "如果说我们想让美元持续的下跌"
    },
    {
      "start": 1705.54,
      "end": 1707.06,
      "text": "那么需要通胀降温"
    },
    {
      "start": 1708.06,
      "end": 1709.8600000000001,
      "text": "就业温和油价回落"
    },
    {
      "start": 1709.8600000000001,
      "end": 1712.3200000000002,
      "text": "美联储维持利率"
    },
    {
      "start": 1712.3200000000002,
      "end": 1715.8,
      "text": "同时全球没有进入明显的恐慌"
    },
    {
      "start": 1715.8,
      "end": 1720.1799999999998,
      "text": "这这些条件它是必须要同时成立的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1720.1799999999998,
      "end": 1726.54,
      "text": "但是美元的上涨只需要其中一个风险重新出现就可以了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1726.54,
      "end": 1728.58,
      "text": "因此的美元指数101"
    },
    {
      "start": 1728.88,
      "end": 1733.02,
      "text": "位置它仍然是非常关键的一个警戒线"
    },
    {
      "start": 1733.02,
      "end": 1734.58,
      "text": "如果站稳101"
    },
    {
      "start": 1734.58,
      "end": 1739.74,
      "text": "它就意味着油价收益率和美元会同时暴击"
    },
    {
      "start": 1739.74,
      "end": 1742.38,
      "text": "如果它站不上101"
    },
    {
      "start": 1742.38,
      "end": 1744.6,
      "text": "那么就可以说明美债收益率上涨"
    },
    {
      "start": 1744.6,
      "end": 1747.24,
      "text": "它正在失去正常的一个美元支撑"
    },
    {
      "start": 1747.24,
      "end": 1748.38,
      "text": "这种条件下"
    },
    {
      "start": 1748.38,
      "end": 1750.88,
      "text": "它是会利于黄金的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1750.88,
      "end": 1752.72,
      "text": "但不会利于美股"
    },
    {
      "start": 1752.72,
      "end": 1758.8200000000002,
      "text": "因为它代表的是市场正在提高美国长期财政和政策风险溢价"
    },
    {
      "start": 1758.88,
      "end": 1760.54,
      "text": "那么日元呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 1760.54,
      "end": 1764.12,
      "text": "就会成为外汇市场意外的一个引爆点"
    },
    {
      "start": 1764.12,
      "end": 1766.2,
      "text": "所以我们在对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1766.2,
      "end": 1769.8600000000001,
      "text": "现在这两天可以看见日元成这个样子"
    },
    {
      "start": 1769.8600000000001,
      "end": 1772.1599999999999,
      "text": "因为日元长期贬值"
    },
    {
      "start": 1772.1599999999999,
      "end": 1775.88,
      "text": "它已经提高了日本干预市场的一个概率"
    },
    {
      "start": 1775.88,
      "end": 1782.8200000000002,
      "text": "那么日本央行释放鹰派信号或者日元突然升值就可能触发透析交易平仓"
    },
    {
      "start": 1782.8200000000002,
      "end": 1784.96,
      "text": "进而冲击高估值的科技股"
    },
    {
      "start": 1784.96,
      "end": 1787.38,
      "text": "韩国市场以及加密货币市场"
    },
    {
      "start": 1787.38,
      "end": 1788.8600000000001,
      "text": "因此我们可以再看一下"
    },
    {
      "start": 1788.88,
      "end": 1792.6,
      "text": "黄金黄金的中期逻辑肯定是没有破坏的嘛"
    },
    {
      "start": 1792.6,
      "end": 1792.8400000000001,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1792.8400000000001,
      "end": 1797.72,
      "text": "但它仍然是要再经历一次一次测试的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1797.72,
      "end": 1800.04,
      "text": "因为美元处没有加息"
    },
    {
      "start": 1800.04,
      "end": 1802.1599999999999,
      "text": "美元明显下跌"
    },
    {
      "start": 1802.1599999999999,
      "end": 1802.8200000000002,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1802.8200000000002,
      "end": 1807.6599999999999,
      "text": "它本来对于黄金来讲应该是较为有利的环境"
    },
    {
      "start": 1807.6599999999999,
      "end": 1812.3,
      "text": "但是目前黄金它仍然没有站稳4100"
    },
    {
      "start": 1812.3,
      "end": 1816.8200000000002,
      "text": "这就说明当前的上涨更多来自于美元回落"
    },
    {
      "start": 1816.8200000000002,
      "end": 1818.46,
      "text": "空头回步以及市监区"
    },
    {
      "start": 1818.88,
      "end": 1823.52,
      "text": "区市资金它还没有全面进入"
    },
    {
      "start": 1823.52,
      "end": 1824.42,
      "text": "因此呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 1824.42,
      "end": 1826.62,
      "text": "整个八月的上半月"
    },
    {
      "start": 1826.62,
      "end": 1830.1,
      "text": "黄金是仍然会受到飞龙数据"
    },
    {
      "start": 1830.1,
      "end": 1832.7,
      "text": "CPI PPI以及实际收益率的压制"
    },
    {
      "start": 1832.7,
      "end": 1835.8400000000001,
      "text": "那么我们要先看到4000美元"
    },
    {
      "start": 1835.8400000000001,
      "end": 1842.94,
      "text": "甚至它会短暂的下探3950美元至3900美元区间"
    },
    {
      "start": 1842.94,
      "end": 1844.3400000000001,
      "text": "只不过4000美元"
    },
    {
      "start": 1844.3400000000001,
      "end": 1846.24,
      "text": "它是对于黄金来讲"
    },
    {
      "start": 1846.24,
      "end": 1848.8600000000001,
      "text": "肯定是一个多空的分界点"
    },
    {
      "start": 1848.88,
      "end": 1853.1799999999998,
      "text": "那么3950到3900是它下一个支撑位"
    },
    {
      "start": 1853.1799999999998,
      "end": 1859.9,
      "text": "4150到4108是它重新能够确认趋势的一个位置"
    },
    {
      "start": 1859.9,
      "end": 1865.1799999999998,
      "text": "所以黄金是有可能会先跌后涨的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1865.1799999999998,
      "end": 1866.24,
      "text": "但是先跌后涨"
    },
    {
      "start": 1866.24,
      "end": 1868.88,
      "text": "它会有明确的一个失效条件"
    },
    {
      "start": 1868.88,
      "end": 1873.78,
      "text": "也就是说黄金有效突破4150至4165美元"
    },
    {
      "start": 1873.78,
      "end": 1878.8400000000001,
      "text": "并且在美元反弹收益率维持高位的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 1878.88,
      "end": 1881.8400000000001,
      "text": "仍然能够守住这个价位"
    },
    {
      "start": 1881.8400000000001,
      "end": 1884.5,
      "text": "那么一旦出现这种表现"
    },
    {
      "start": 1884.5,
      "end": 1889.44,
      "text": "市场交易将不再只是美联储不加息"
    },
    {
      "start": 1889.44,
      "end": 1893.02,
      "text": "而是美国财政政策可信度通胀"
    },
    {
      "start": 1893.02,
      "end": 1895.2,
      "text": "以及货币购买力风险"
    },
    {
      "start": 1895.2,
      "end": 1901.2,
      "text": "那么那个时候黄金就有可能会向4200"
    },
    {
      "start": 1901.2,
      "end": 1903.6599999999999,
      "text": "甚至是更高的位置前进"
    },
    {
      "start": 1903.6599999999999,
      "end": 1905.0,
      "text": "那么说完黄金之后"
    },
    {
      "start": 1905.0,
      "end": 1907.08,
      "text": "我们就可以看一下我们自己的A股"
    },
    {
      "start": 1907.08,
      "end": 1908.3400000000001,
      "text": "是吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1908.3400000000001,
      "end": 1910.1,
      "text": "上证我们先来看上证"
    },
    {
      "start": 1910.1,
      "end": 1914.88,
      "text": "上证从4258回落到最近的一个低点"
    },
    {
      "start": 1914.88,
      "end": 1916.6599999999999,
      "text": "差不多是10个点"
    },
    {
      "start": 1916.6599999999999,
      "end": 1917.92,
      "text": "10个点左右"
    },
    {
      "start": 1917.92,
      "end": 1921.3400000000001,
      "text": "回撤5%是4046"
    },
    {
      "start": 1921.3400000000001,
      "end": 1924.3400000000001,
      "text": "然后回撤10%就是3833"
    },
    {
      "start": 1924.3400000000001,
      "end": 1926.6799999999998,
      "text": "那么回撤15%是3620"
    },
    {
      "start": 1926.6799999999998,
      "end": 1928.94,
      "text": "回撤20%是3407"
    },
    {
      "start": 1928.94,
      "end": 1932.5,
      "text": "我们8月份"
    },
    {
      "start": 1932.5,
      "end": 1934.42,
      "text": "首先我们要看3833"
    },
    {
      "start": 1934.42,
      "end": 1935.4,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1935.4,
      "end": 1937.1,
      "text": "也就是10%的一个回撤线"
    },
    {
      "start": 1937.1,
      "end": 1941.92,
      "text": "如果我们的指数能够重新站上3833"
    },
    {
      "start": 1941.92,
      "end": 1943.8200000000002,
      "text": "并且能够守住"
    },
    {
      "start": 1943.8200000000002,
      "end": 1947.1599999999999,
      "text": "那就说明这个10%的一个回调"
    },
    {
      "start": 1947.1599999999999,
      "end": 1949.08,
      "text": "已经吸引中长期资金成见"
    },
    {
      "start": 1949.08,
      "end": 1951.56,
      "text": "那么我们可以将本轮的下跌"
    },
    {
      "start": 1951.56,
      "end": 1954.2,
      "text": "定义为牛市当中正常的一个修正"
    },
    {
      "start": 1954.2,
      "end": 1956.8600000000001,
      "text": "也就我们周五收盘的这个位置"
    },
    {
      "start": 1956.8600000000001,
      "end": 1958.1399999999999,
      "text": "差不多对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1958.1399999999999,
      "end": 1959.78,
      "text": "差不多就收盘这个位置"
    },
    {
      "start": 1959.78,
      "end": 1963.52,
      "text": "如果反弹始终无法站回3833"
    },
    {
      "start": 1963.52,
      "end": 1965.46,
      "text": "那么这个点位"
    },
    {
      "start": 1965.46,
      "end": 1967.08,
      "text": "就会从支撑上来到3833"
    },
    {
      "start": 1967.1,
      "end": 1969.04,
      "text": "会从平均位转变为压力位"
    },
    {
      "start": 1969.04,
      "end": 1972.6399999999999,
      "text": "每次靠近的时候都会面临着解套盘"
    },
    {
      "start": 1972.6399999999999,
      "end": 1975.54,
      "text": "因为我们的市场"
    },
    {
      "start": 1975.54,
      "end": 1979.24,
      "text": "它虽然经历了10%的一个回撤"
    },
    {
      "start": 1979.24,
      "end": 1983.48,
      "text": "但是并没有进入明显的恐慌"
    },
    {
      "start": 1983.48,
      "end": 1987.3200000000002,
      "text": "这就意味着市场可能完成了空间上的调整"
    },
    {
      "start": 1987.3200000000002,
      "end": 1990.4,
      "text": "却没有完成恐慌的初清"
    },
    {
      "start": 1990.4,
      "end": 1994.8400000000001,
      "text": "如果3833没有办法站稳的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 1994.8400000000001,
      "end": 1996.52,
      "text": "指数是会向3620的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1996.52,
      "end": 2000.62,
      "text": "3620附近去找一个承接的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2000.62,
      "end": 2003.3400000000001,
      "text": "因此我们在抄底8月份的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 2003.3400000000001,
      "end": 2007.04,
      "text": "我们不应该只看简单的抄底"
    },
    {
      "start": 2007.04,
      "end": 2010.3400000000001,
      "text": "我们需要确认3833这个点"
    },
    {
      "start": 2010.3400000000001,
      "end": 2012.08,
      "text": "是支撑还是压力位"
    },
    {
      "start": 2012.08,
      "end": 2015.8600000000001,
      "text": "所以我对于整体上证的一个判断"
    },
    {
      "start": 2015.8600000000001,
      "end": 2017.08,
      "text": "8月份的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 2017.08,
      "end": 2020.26,
      "text": "更像是会收6月份的这种显"
    },
    {
      "start": 2020.26,
      "end": 2021.52,
      "text": "收一个十字星"
    },
    {
      "start": 2021.52,
      "end": 2023.08,
      "text": "我认为是比较好的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2023.08,
      "end": 2023.7,
      "text": "好吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2023.7,
      "end": 2026.0,
      "text": "我对于整体8月份的判断来讲"
    },
    {
      "start": 2026.0,
      "end": 2026.5,
      "text": "会稍微有点不太好"
    },
    {
      "start": 2026.52,
      "end": 2028.78,
      "text": "稍微的乐观"
    },
    {
      "start": 2028.78,
      "end": 2029.74,
      "text": "没有那么悲观"
    },
    {
      "start": 2029.74,
      "end": 2031.48,
      "text": "那么再来回过头来"
    },
    {
      "start": 2031.48,
      "end": 2034.74,
      "text": "再来看一下我们周五的整体一个表现"
    },
    {
      "start": 2034.74,
      "end": 2036.7,
      "text": "因为我们在周五的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 2036.7,
      "end": 2041.6799999999998,
      "text": "是11点钟确认90分钟的一个底形成"
    },
    {
      "start": 2041.6799999999998,
      "end": 2041.98,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2041.98,
      "end": 2044.72,
      "text": "因为MACD这边红角线已经出来了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2044.72,
      "end": 2046.98,
      "text": "我们之前也抄过底"
    },
    {
      "start": 2046.98,
      "end": 2048.54,
      "text": "就在7月初的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 2048.54,
      "end": 2050.02,
      "text": "7月8号"
    },
    {
      "start": 2050.02,
      "end": 2051.2,
      "text": "就8号吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2051.2,
      "end": 2052.12,
      "text": "7月9号"
    },
    {
      "start": 2052.12,
      "end": 2052.84,
      "text": "7月9号的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 2052.84,
      "end": 2053.34,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2053.34,
      "end": 2055.7799999999997,
      "text": "当时说底部顿化形成"
    },
    {
      "start": 2055.7799999999997,
      "end": 2056.5,
      "text": "底部顿化形成"
    },
    {
      "start": 2056.52,
      "end": 2058.96,
      "text": "因为是只有30%的一个几率"
    },
    {
      "start": 2058.96,
      "end": 2061.7,
      "text": "但是底部结构形成"
    },
    {
      "start": 2061.7,
      "end": 2064.14,
      "text": "它整体的一个几率就会大一点"
    },
    {
      "start": 2064.14,
      "end": 2067.38,
      "text": "所以我们其实用沙盘推演看一下"
    },
    {
      "start": 2067.38,
      "end": 2069.9,
      "text": "哪怕它指数不涨的情况下"
    },
    {
      "start": 2069.9,
      "end": 2073.18,
      "text": "我们也能够明显的看到MACD这边"
    },
    {
      "start": 2073.18,
      "end": 2074.2,
      "text": "红柱是会放大的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2074.2,
      "end": 2075.66,
      "text": "懂吗"
    },
    {
      "start": 2075.66,
      "end": 2078.46,
      "text": "我们也是能够明显看到指数是同步放大的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2078.46,
      "end": 2081.54,
      "text": "所以它理论上对应是8个交易日"
    },
    {
      "start": 2081.54,
      "end": 2083.92,
      "text": "当然如果出现明显的下跌"
    },
    {
      "start": 2083.92,
      "end": 2084.94,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2084.94,
      "end": 2086.06,
      "text": "你出现明显的下跌"
    },
    {
      "start": 2086.06,
      "end": 2086.26,
      "text": "好"
    },
    {
      "start": 2086.52,
      "end": 2087.52,
      "text": "我们也能够明显的下跌"
    },
    {
      "start": 2087.52,
      "end": 2088.52,
      "text": "但是我们也能够明显的下跌"
    },
    {
      "start": 2088.52,
      "end": 2089.52,
      "text": "但是我们也能够明显的下跌"
    },
    {
      "start": 2089.52,
      "end": 2090.52,
      "text": "但至少哪怕它不涨"
    },
    {
      "start": 2090.52,
      "end": 2091.52,
      "text": "它处于一个横盘情况下"
    },
    {
      "start": 2091.52,
      "end": 2093.52,
      "text": "这边红角线也会是会出现的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2093.52,
      "end": 2095.84,
      "text": "因此我们周一就要重点观察"
    },
    {
      "start": 2095.84,
      "end": 2096.06,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2096.06,
      "end": 2098.9,
      "text": "各周期的一个底部顿化是否会消失"
    },
    {
      "start": 2098.9,
      "end": 2100.4,
      "text": "那么如果消失好了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2100.4,
      "end": 2102.24,
      "text": "我们该撤撤"
    },
    {
      "start": 2102.24,
      "end": 2103.52,
      "text": "如果它没有消失"
    },
    {
      "start": 2103.52,
      "end": 2105.86,
      "text": "我们就继续拿着去做这波的反弹"
    },
    {
      "start": 2105.86,
      "end": 2109.4,
      "text": "所以我对于月初的整体的反弹"
    },
    {
      "start": 2109.4,
      "end": 2110.48,
      "text": "我是不悲观的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2110.48,
      "end": 2111.04,
      "text": "好吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2111.04,
      "end": 2113.6,
      "text": "月初没有什么利空的消息"
    },
    {
      "start": 2113.6,
      "end": 2115.16,
      "text": "唯一就是特朗普那边"
    },
    {
      "start": 2115.16,
      "end": 2116.32,
      "text": "但特朗普那边也已经"
    },
    {
      "start": 2116.32,
      "end": 2116.86,
      "text": "塔扣了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2116.86,
      "end": 2119.74,
      "text": "那么我对于至少说前"
    },
    {
      "start": 2119.74,
      "end": 2122.96,
      "text": "前月初的整体的一个行情"
    },
    {
      "start": 2122.96,
      "end": 2123.92,
      "text": "不是很悲观了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2123.92,
      "end": 2126.44,
      "text": "我们要把这一轮的反弹"
    },
    {
      "start": 2126.44,
      "end": 2127.42,
      "text": "至少说吃到"
    },
    {
      "start": 2127.42,
      "end": 2130.24,
      "text": "而现在唯一出现一个问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 2130.24,
      "end": 2133.32,
      "text": "就在于我们A股这边的硬科技"
    },
    {
      "start": 2133.32,
      "end": 2133.6,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2133.6,
      "end": 2136.3,
      "text": "AI的硬件端这一块"
    },
    {
      "start": 2136.3,
      "end": 2137.7,
      "text": "是高开低走"
    },
    {
      "start": 2137.7,
      "end": 2141.46,
      "text": "甚至得名利从早上的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2141.46,
      "end": 2142.84,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2142.84,
      "end": 2144.2200000000003,
      "text": "风单风的挺强的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2144.2200000000003,
      "end": 2145.42,
      "text": "直接一路下跌"
    },
    {
      "start": 2145.42,
      "end": 2145.74,
      "text": "然后"
    },
    {
      "start": 2145.74,
      "end": 2146.3,
      "text": "然后"
    },
    {
      "start": 2146.32,
      "end": 2147.2200000000003,
      "text": "收绿了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2147.2200000000003,
      "end": 2149.84,
      "text": "这是一个非常恶心的事情"
    },
    {
      "start": 2149.84,
      "end": 2151.92,
      "text": "确实很恶心"
    },
    {
      "start": 2151.92,
      "end": 2155.64,
      "text": "但也很符合A股的一个情况"
    },
    {
      "start": 2155.64,
      "end": 2157.2799999999997,
      "text": "因为同时"
    },
    {
      "start": 2157.2799999999997,
      "end": 2158.7,
      "text": "整体上涨"
    },
    {
      "start": 2158.7,
      "end": 2159.68,
      "text": "涨得最猛的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2159.68,
      "end": 2161.4,
      "text": "是AI的应用"
    },
    {
      "start": 2161.4,
      "end": 2163.26,
      "text": "市场出现了新的方向"
    },
    {
      "start": 2163.26,
      "end": 2165.08,
      "text": "但是我说一点"
    },
    {
      "start": 2165.08,
      "end": 2165.82,
      "text": "就是说"
    },
    {
      "start": 2165.82,
      "end": 2168.76,
      "text": "AI应用和AI硬科技"
    },
    {
      "start": 2168.76,
      "end": 2171.32,
      "text": "它并不是一个相反的东西"
    },
    {
      "start": 2171.32,
      "end": 2172.42,
      "text": "并不是"
    },
    {
      "start": 2172.42,
      "end": 2173.38,
      "text": "这两者"
    },
    {
      "start": 2173.38,
      "end": 2174.76,
      "text": "它不是一个翘翘板"
    },
    {
      "start": 2174.76,
      "end": 2176.3,
      "text": "所以说"
    },
    {
      "start": 2176.32,
      "end": 2178.2799999999997,
      "text": "AI应用这一块"
    },
    {
      "start": 2178.2799999999997,
      "end": 2179.88,
      "text": "我们最重"
    },
    {
      "start": 2179.88,
      "end": 2181.04,
      "text": "因为这个东西"
    },
    {
      "start": 2181.04,
      "end": 2183.08,
      "text": "它刚出来最强的票"
    },
    {
      "start": 2183.08,
      "end": 2184.56,
      "text": "就是普联软件"
    },
    {
      "start": 2184.56,
      "end": 2186.56,
      "text": "包括说为什么它周五涨"
    },
    {
      "start": 2186.56,
      "end": 2187.76,
      "text": "有这么几点催化"
    },
    {
      "start": 2187.76,
      "end": 2190.84,
      "text": "首先是因为海外的谷歌亚马逊"
    },
    {
      "start": 2190.84,
      "end": 2191.08,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2191.08,
      "end": 2193.08,
      "text": "他们的收入增长了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2193.08,
      "end": 2195.48,
      "text": "然后其次是因为"
    },
    {
      "start": 2195.48,
      "end": 2199.32,
      "text": "OpenAI这边进行一轮降价"
    },
    {
      "start": 2199.32,
      "end": 2201.92,
      "text": "所以它是对于AI应用端"
    },
    {
      "start": 2201.92,
      "end": 2203.2799999999997,
      "text": "是有明显利好的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2203.2799999999997,
      "end": 2205.32,
      "text": "并且说有一些"
    },
    {
      "start": 2205.32,
      "end": 2208.12,
      "text": "AI应用相关的一些股票"
    },
    {
      "start": 2208.12,
      "end": 2210.4,
      "text": "他们的整体的一个业绩"
    },
    {
      "start": 2210.4,
      "end": 2212.48,
      "text": "是会稍微好一点"
    },
    {
      "start": 2212.48,
      "end": 2214.2799999999997,
      "text": "中报可能出现了一些反转"
    },
    {
      "start": 2214.2799999999997,
      "end": 2217.08,
      "text": "因此他们起来的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 2217.08,
      "end": 2218.2799999999997,
      "text": "因为我们上周五"
    },
    {
      "start": 2218.2799999999997,
      "end": 2219.44,
      "text": "整体看的是一"
    },
    {
      "start": 2219.44,
      "end": 2220.08,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2220.08,
      "end": 2221.8599999999997,
      "text": "是一波很有力的反弹"
    },
    {
      "start": 2221.8599999999997,
      "end": 2223.2799999999997,
      "text": "所以因此我们对于"
    },
    {
      "start": 2223.2799999999997,
      "end": 2224.66,
      "text": "这一轮AI应用"
    },
    {
      "start": 2224.66,
      "end": 2226.08,
      "text": "可以高看一眼"
    },
    {
      "start": 2226.08,
      "end": 2227.1,
      "text": "整个消息"
    },
    {
      "start": 2227.1,
      "end": 2228.34,
      "text": "我也是在周五"
    },
    {
      "start": 2228.34,
      "end": 2229.6,
      "text": "周五发出来了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2229.6,
      "end": 2232.24,
      "text": "所以这样一个情况下"
    },
    {
      "start": 2232.24,
      "end": 2234.48,
      "text": "我们明天"
    },
    {
      "start": 2235.3199999999997,
      "end": 2238.44,
      "text": "最先观察的东西是普联软件"
    },
    {
      "start": 2238.44,
      "end": 2240.52,
      "text": "普联软件因为"
    },
    {
      "start": 2240.52,
      "end": 2244.8,
      "text": "它是周三的晚上出来一个公告"
    },
    {
      "start": 2244.8,
      "end": 2246.52,
      "text": "我看一下是不是周三晚上"
    },
    {
      "start": 2246.52,
      "end": 2248.76,
      "text": "它是周四复牌的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2248.76,
      "end": 2250.52,
      "text": "因为之前实控人对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2250.52,
      "end": 2251.24,
      "text": "变更"
    },
    {
      "start": 2251.24,
      "end": 2252.2,
      "text": "然后周四"
    },
    {
      "start": 2253.44,
      "end": 2255.2799999999997,
      "text": "但它竟然一开始没有一字版"
    },
    {
      "start": 2255.2799999999997,
      "end": 2257.8,
      "text": "它是早上拉上去的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2257.8,
      "end": 2259.76,
      "text": "实控人复牌"
    },
    {
      "start": 2259.76,
      "end": 2262.3199999999997,
      "text": "它是变为了名略科技"
    },
    {
      "start": 2262.3199999999997,
      "end": 2264.12,
      "text": "这个名略科技呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2264.12,
      "end": 2265.16,
      "text": "它是跟"
    },
    {
      "start": 2265.3199999999997,
      "end": 2267.3199999999997,
      "text": "腾讯那边有关系的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2267.3199999999997,
      "end": 2270.76,
      "text": "它是属于腾讯系的一个公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 2270.76,
      "end": 2274.2799999999997,
      "text": "也就是说它是被腾讯系给控股了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2274.2799999999997,
      "end": 2276.3199999999997,
      "text": "然后腾讯那边对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2276.3199999999997,
      "end": 2279.12,
      "text": "因为布局的agent这边比较多"
    },
    {
      "start": 2279.12,
      "end": 2282.12,
      "text": "所以我们在周五"
    },
    {
      "start": 2282.12,
      "end": 2285.2,
      "text": "讲的最好的明确的东西呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2285.2,
      "end": 2287.52,
      "text": "就是agent相关的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2287.52,
      "end": 2290.04,
      "text": "当然我这个收纳的不是很全"
    },
    {
      "start": 2290.04,
      "end": 2292.2799999999997,
      "text": "我这个收纳的不是很全"
    },
    {
      "start": 2292.2799999999997,
      "end": 2295.16,
      "text": "它主要就是跟agent相关的一些公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 2295.3199999999997,
      "end": 2298.52,
      "text": "因为我们AI应用的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 2298.52,
      "end": 2302.3599999999997,
      "text": "我认为有两个值得我们去看的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2302.3599999999997,
      "end": 2303.92,
      "text": "一个是agent"
    },
    {
      "start": 2303.92,
      "end": 2308.6,
      "text": "我们A股跟agent的关系比较大"
    },
    {
      "start": 2308.6,
      "end": 2315.48,
      "text": "但是还有一个就是可能会就是整体业绩可能会比较好的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2315.48,
      "end": 2318.3599999999997,
      "text": "也就是说有一定的价值的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2318.3599999999997,
      "end": 2319.6800000000003,
      "text": "就例如讯测"
    },
    {
      "start": 2319.6800000000003,
      "end": 2320.4,
      "text": "讯测"
    },
    {
      "start": 2321.6,
      "end": 2322.96,
      "text": "不这个讯吗"
    },
    {
      "start": 2322.96,
      "end": 2324.2,
      "text": "这个讯测"
    },
    {
      "start": 2325.3199999999997,
      "end": 2327.16,
      "text": "就是说这个公司呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2327.16,
      "end": 2329.0,
      "text": "它是给人处理数据的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2329.0,
      "end": 2330.96,
      "text": "就我们知道"
    },
    {
      "start": 2330.96,
      "end": 2333.44,
      "text": "AI的很多东西的对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2333.44,
      "end": 2334.48,
      "text": "他的知识库呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2334.48,
      "end": 2335.92,
      "text": "是来源于数据"
    },
    {
      "start": 2335.92,
      "end": 2337.4,
      "text": "但是很多的数据"
    },
    {
      "start": 2337.4,
      "end": 2340.84,
      "text": "比如说垂类比较深的一些数据"
    },
    {
      "start": 2341.92,
      "end": 2343.6400000000003,
      "text": "你在网上是找不到的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2343.6400000000003,
      "end": 2345.04,
      "text": "比如说一些"
    },
    {
      "start": 2346.2799999999997,
      "end": 2348.0,
      "text": "诊疗信信息对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2348.0,
      "end": 2349.3199999999997,
      "text": "或者公益参数"
    },
    {
      "start": 2349.3199999999997,
      "end": 2353.6400000000003,
      "text": "这些隐隐秘性比较高的数据是没有的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2353.6400000000003,
      "end": 2354.96,
      "text": "然后这些公司呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2355.3199999999997,
      "end": 2360.04,
      "text": "干的事情就是帮帮一些公司去整理这种数据"
    },
    {
      "start": 2360.04,
      "end": 2363.2799999999997,
      "text": "就把整个企业的那种私有数据"
    },
    {
      "start": 2363.2799999999997,
      "end": 2367.48,
      "text": "然后精炼成AI可以直接消费的一种场景的token"
    },
    {
      "start": 2367.48,
      "end": 2369.48,
      "text": "然后赚这个的钱"
    },
    {
      "start": 2369.48,
      "end": 2374.76,
      "text": "所以这些公司他们可能未来的业绩会比较好"
    },
    {
      "start": 2374.76,
      "end": 2375.76,
      "text": "包括说港股"
    },
    {
      "start": 2375.76,
      "end": 2378.4,
      "text": "港股这种公司是蛮多的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2378.4,
      "end": 2382.48,
      "text": "包括之前我跟各位提到的五一对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2382.48,
      "end": 2383.3599999999997,
      "text": "五一世界"
    },
    {
      "start": 2383.3599999999997,
      "end": 2384.44,
      "text": "它虽然是"
    },
    {
      "start": 2385.3199999999997,
      "end": 2389.2,
      "text": "跟机器人跟巨声智能那边相关"
    },
    {
      "start": 2389.2,
      "end": 2390.48,
      "text": "但说白了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2390.48,
      "end": 2392.24,
      "text": "它也是用来做数据的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2392.24,
      "end": 2394.2,
      "text": "所以这些公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 2394.2,
      "end": 2398.3599999999997,
      "text": "就是如果是AI应用能够起的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 2398.3599999999997,
      "end": 2401.6,
      "text": "这一类公司我是能够看好"
    },
    {
      "start": 2399.8,
      "end": 2401.6,
      "text": "这一类公司我是能够看好"
    },
    {
      "start": 2401.6,
      "end": 2404.0,
      "text": "这一类公司在港股会比较多"
    },
    {
      "start": 2404.08,
      "end": 2405.92,
      "text": "在港股会多一点"
    },
    {
      "start": 2405.92,
      "end": 2408.68,
      "text": "我们A股很少"
    },
    {
      "start": 2408.68,
      "end": 2410.52,
      "text": "所以涨停的那些里面"
    },
    {
      "start": 2410.52,
      "end": 2413.52,
      "text": "比如说中文在线对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2413.52,
      "end": 2415.12,
      "text": "这个算是"
    },
    {
      "start": 2415.76,
      "end": 2417.16,
      "text": "然后像我"
    },
    {
      "start": 2417.68,
      "end": 2418.6,
      "text": "我跟各位说对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2418.6,
      "end": 2421.16,
      "text": "我做的是立方控股"
    },
    {
      "start": 2421.24,
      "end": 2421.88,
      "text": "30厘米"
    },
    {
      "start": 2421.88,
      "end": 2425.0,
      "text": "因为 但这个东西没有价值"
    },
    {
      "start": 2425.08,
      "end": 2426.56,
      "text": "我首先说它就是个垃圾"
    },
    {
      "start": 2426.56,
      "end": 2427.44,
      "text": "它就是垃圾"
    },
    {
      "start": 2427.44,
      "end": 2428.32,
      "text": "我为什么做它"
    },
    {
      "start": 2428.32,
      "end": 2429.76,
      "text": "因为有记忆点"
    },
    {
      "start": 2430.2,
      "end": 2433.24,
      "text": "之前我们每次做AI应用的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 2433.24,
      "end": 2434.32,
      "text": "这种东西对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2434.76,
      "end": 2436.32,
      "text": "这东西三连板30厘米"
    },
    {
      "start": 2436.32,
      "end": 2436.76,
      "text": "三连板"
    },
    {
      "start": 2436.76,
      "end": 2439.08,
      "text": "甚至5天4版"
    },
    {
      "start": 2440.28,
      "end": 2442.12,
      "text": "我们上轮炒AI应用的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 2442.12,
      "end": 2442.8,
      "text": "我做过它"
    },
    {
      "start": 2442.8,
      "end": 2443.68,
      "text": "所以有记忆点"
    },
    {
      "start": 2443.68,
      "end": 2445.24,
      "text": "也就是说你们做短线的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 2445.24,
      "end": 2446.16,
      "text": "为什么我说"
    },
    {
      "start": 2447.04,
      "end": 2449.36,
      "text": "你做短线入门需要时间"
    },
    {
      "start": 2449.36,
      "end": 2450.6,
      "text": "因为你需要知道对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2450.6,
      "end": 2451.24,
      "text": "什么时候做过"
    },
    {
      "start": 2451.24,
      "end": 2451.76,
      "text": "这个"
    },
    {
      "start": 2451.88,
      "end": 2453.2,
      "text": "这个东西一旦好"
    },
    {
      "start": 2453.2,
      "end": 2455.88,
      "text": "你发现短线精灵这边快快开始刷"
    },
    {
      "start": 2456.0,
      "end": 2457.84,
      "text": "你知道AI应用"
    },
    {
      "start": 2458.08,
      "end": 2459.4,
      "text": "这个东西今天"
    },
    {
      "start": 2459.76,
      "end": 2460.48,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2460.76,
      "end": 2462.4,
      "text": "因为我早上也在找"
    },
    {
      "start": 2462.4,
      "end": 2464.12,
      "text": "那么硬件下来之后"
    },
    {
      "start": 2464.28,
      "end": 2466.68,
      "text": "哪一部分它表现最好"
    },
    {
      "start": 2466.68,
      "end": 2468.52,
      "text": "你看AI应用"
    },
    {
      "start": 2468.56,
      "end": 2470.0,
      "text": "好一做AI应用"
    },
    {
      "start": 2470.0,
      "end": 2473.36,
      "text": "脑袋里帮第一时间想到弹性最大的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2473.36,
      "end": 2473.92,
      "text": "东西"
    },
    {
      "start": 2474.04,
      "end": 2477.24,
      "text": "我今天因为今天我是整体看一个反弹"
    },
    {
      "start": 2477.24,
      "end": 2478.88,
      "text": "我认为今天力度会非常大"
    },
    {
      "start": 2478.88,
      "end": 2481.64,
      "text": "那么我当天我就直接要去干"
    },
    {
      "start": 2481.64,
      "end": 2483.16,
      "text": "最牛逼的30厘米"
    },
    {
      "start": 2483.68,
      "end": 2485.96,
      "text": "我老代人就蹦一个立方控股"
    },
    {
      "start": 2485.96,
      "end": 2487.72,
      "text": "包括另一个国资软件"
    },
    {
      "start": 2487.72,
      "end": 2489.08,
      "text": "当时我拉出来一看对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2489.08,
      "end": 2490.8,
      "text": "立方控股涨得比国资软件高"
    },
    {
      "start": 2490.96,
      "end": 2492.32,
      "text": "我直接进立方控股"
    },
    {
      "start": 2492.32,
      "end": 2493.4,
      "text": "就这么简单"
    },
    {
      "start": 2493.4,
      "end": 2494.32,
      "text": "你们不要学"
    },
    {
      "start": 2494.72,
      "end": 2495.84,
      "text": "这个东西是个垃圾"
    },
    {
      "start": 2495.84,
      "end": 2496.44,
      "text": "它是干嘛的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2496.44,
      "end": 2499.24,
      "text": "它是这家公司好像是做什么"
    },
    {
      "start": 2499.24,
      "end": 2500.24,
      "text": "做停车场的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2500.88,
      "end": 2503.08,
      "text": "好像是做停车场的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2503.32,
      "end": 2503.64,
      "text": "好吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2503.64,
      "end": 2505.92,
      "text": "它虽然跟着科技有关"
    },
    {
      "start": 2505.92,
      "end": 2508.08,
      "text": "但跟科技没有太大关系"
    },
    {
      "start": 2508.48,
      "end": 2510.24,
      "text": "就只是情绪的标的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2510.24,
      "end": 2510.92,
      "text": "然后"
    },
    {
      "start": 2511.64,
      "end": 2514.72,
      "text": "还有一块就是说"
    },
    {
      "start": 2514.72,
      "end": 2515.8,
      "text": "因为我们要去想"
    },
    {
      "start": 2515.96,
      "end": 2517.92,
      "text": "如果说应用对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2517.92,
      "end": 2519.84,
      "text": "它表现没有就超跌反弹"
    },
    {
      "start": 2520.0,
      "end": 2521.12,
      "text": "超跌反弹那一波"
    },
    {
      "start": 2521.12,
      "end": 2523.44,
      "text": "但因为A股尿性就这个样子"
    },
    {
      "start": 2524.6,
      "end": 2528.6,
      "text": "所以我们要去探寻更多的可能性"
    },
    {
      "start": 2528.6,
      "end": 2530.76,
      "text": "所以像网速科技对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2531.2,
      "end": 2534.84,
      "text": "这个票大家应该是比较熟悉的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2534.84,
      "end": 2537.2,
      "text": "我们年前做"
    },
    {
      "start": 2537.88,
      "end": 2539.68,
      "text": "做应用也做过这个票"
    },
    {
      "start": 2539.68,
      "end": 2541.6,
      "text": "年初的时候做应用也做过"
    },
    {
      "start": 2541.6,
      "end": 2542.24,
      "text": "应用这个票"
    },
    {
      "start": 2542.24,
      "end": 2544.16,
      "text": "那么这个票也有一个催化"
    },
    {
      "start": 2544.16,
      "end": 2546.04,
      "text": "就是mcp协议"
    },
    {
      "start": 2546.6,
      "end": 2548.8,
      "text": "因为mcp协议正式发布"
    },
    {
      "start": 2548.8,
      "end": 2552.28,
      "text": "它会支持agent可以大规模生产部署"
    },
    {
      "start": 2552.28,
      "end": 2552.72,
      "text": "那么"
    },
    {
      "start": 2553.72,
      "end": 2557.72,
      "text": "这个票它就可以是mcp的一个"
    },
    {
      "start": 2557.72,
      "end": 2560.84,
      "text": "因为这个东西之前也炒过"
    },
    {
      "start": 2561.6,
      "end": 2563.28,
      "text": "恒峰信息也是"
    },
    {
      "start": 2563.28,
      "end": 2565.2,
      "text": "恒峰信息在对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2565.2,
      "end": 2568.24,
      "text": "在他们在7月30号的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 2568.24,
      "end": 2570.56,
      "text": "就在周四的时候就已经表现过了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2570.56,
      "end": 2571.2,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2571.6,
      "end": 2573.32,
      "text": "这个也是当时一个概念"
    },
    {
      "start": 2574.08,
      "end": 2575.2,
      "text": "mcp一个概念"
    },
    {
      "start": 2575.2,
      "end": 2576.64,
      "text": "所以它也是表现过的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2576.96,
      "end": 2579.76,
      "text": "那么这种mcp我们也可以去做"
    },
    {
      "start": 2579.76,
      "end": 2582.16,
      "text": "我今天会把AI应用相关的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2582.52,
      "end": 2583.84,
      "text": "好吧给你们整理一下"
    },
    {
      "start": 2583.84,
      "end": 2585.68,
      "text": "我看有没有必要去"
    },
    {
      "start": 2586.52,
      "end": 2590.84,
      "text": "做一个产业的视频"
    },
    {
      "start": 2590.84,
      "end": 2591.8,
      "text": "如果有必要的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 2591.8,
      "end": 2593.28,
      "text": "可能周二把周二出好吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2593.28,
      "end": 2595.8,
      "text": "周一因为要例行梳理"
    },
    {
      "start": 2596.0,
      "end": 2597.72,
      "text": "梳理行情周二可能会出"
    },
    {
      "start": 2598.52,
      "end": 2600.72,
      "text": "所以你们如果想做AI应用的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 2601.6,
      "end": 2603.0,
      "text": "其实也就两个方向"
    },
    {
      "start": 2603.84,
      "end": 2606.36,
      "text": "三个方向也就差不多三个方向"
    },
    {
      "start": 2606.36,
      "end": 2609.76,
      "text": "一个方向是去港股做我刚才说的跟"
    },
    {
      "start": 2610.32,
      "end": 2611.36,
      "text": "数据有关的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2611.36,
      "end": 2614.96,
      "text": "然后他们可能业绩会还不错"
    },
    {
      "start": 2614.96,
      "end": 2616.88,
      "text": "另一个是去"
    },
    {
      "start": 2617.4,
      "end": 2620.4,
      "text": "如果你在A股就去做跟agent相关的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2621.04,
      "end": 2621.2,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2621.2,
      "end": 2623.28,
      "text": "顶级数字这种跟agent相关的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2623.28,
      "end": 2624.32,
      "text": "包括你要去看"
    },
    {
      "start": 2624.84,
      "end": 2625.36,
      "text": "普联软件"
    },
    {
      "start": 2625.36,
      "end": 2627.44,
      "text": "我并不是说你要去买普联软件好吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2627.44,
      "end": 2629.32,
      "text": "你要去把它当做一个风向标"
    },
    {
      "start": 2629.92,
      "end": 2631.44,
      "text": "如果说AI应用有成功的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 2631.44,
      "end": 2632.96,
      "text": "有持续性很好的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 2632.96,
      "end": 2634.64,
      "text": "那么他周一一定不会差"
    },
    {
      "start": 2634.64,
      "end": 2636.84,
      "text": "普联软件这个票他绝对不能"
    },
    {
      "start": 2637.48,
      "end": 2637.88,
      "text": "差"
    },
    {
      "start": 2638.4,
      "end": 2640.56,
      "text": "他如果弱的话就不太行"
    },
    {
      "start": 2640.56,
      "end": 2643.48,
      "text": "包括说10厘米的范围网络"
    },
    {
      "start": 2643.48,
      "end": 2643.84,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2643.84,
      "end": 2644.76,
      "text": "这个是二联版"
    },
    {
      "start": 2644.76,
      "end": 2647.96,
      "text": "还有你们买的比较多的税有股份"
    },
    {
      "start": 2647.96,
      "end": 2650.0,
      "text": "这个因为是在复盘里面提到的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2650.64,
      "end": 2651.6,
      "text": "这也是二联版"
    },
    {
      "start": 2652.2799999999997,
      "end": 2655.04,
      "text": "所以这两个票因为三板三板来讲"
    },
    {
      "start": 2655.52,
      "end": 2656.32,
      "text": "不高"
    },
    {
      "start": 2656.64,
      "end": 2657.96,
      "text": "所以他们也不能出问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 2657.96,
      "end": 2659.76,
      "text": "这两个二板不能出问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 2660.12,
      "end": 2660.36,
      "text": "好吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2660.36,
      "end": 2661.2799999999997,
      "text": "这两个二板不能出问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 2661.44,
      "end": 2663.32,
      "text": "所以你们可以去做"
    },
    {
      "start": 2663.32,
      "end": 2668.24,
      "text": "然后跟硬件一起调下来调的比较多的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2668.52,
      "end": 2670.16,
      "text": "还有算力租赁"
    },
    {
      "start": 2670.16,
      "end": 2671.56,
      "text": "但是算力租赁对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2671.56,
      "end": 2673.48,
      "text": "周五的表现就非常的好"
    },
    {
      "start": 2674.12,
      "end": 2676.0,
      "text": "就只有力通电子炸了一下"
    },
    {
      "start": 2676.36,
      "end": 2677.88,
      "text": "宏景科技这些都没有炸"
    },
    {
      "start": 2678.2,
      "end": 2678.4,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2678.4,
      "end": 2679.76,
      "text": "迎风环境也没有炸"
    },
    {
      "start": 2679.76,
      "end": 2683.76,
      "text": "因为他算力租赁本身和AI应用"
    },
    {
      "start": 2683.76,
      "end": 2685.56,
      "text": "也是有点关联的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2685.56,
      "end": 2688.0,
      "text": "所以这又形成了第二条线"
    },
    {
      "start": 2688.52,
      "end": 2691.08,
      "text": "那么第三条线自然就是机器人了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2691.44,
      "end": 2694.36,
      "text": "那么因为机器人是语术"
    },
    {
      "start": 2694.6,
      "end": 2698.16,
      "text": "语术那边也是他们是7月30号的一个公告"
    },
    {
      "start": 2698.16,
      "end": 2700.6,
      "text": "所以语术这边也有催化"
    },
    {
      "start": 2700.6,
      "end": 2702.56,
      "text": "对于人行机器人这边也有催化"
    },
    {
      "start": 2702.56,
      "end": 2705.44,
      "text": "整体来讲AI应用这边有催化"
    },
    {
      "start": 2705.92,
      "end": 2707.0,
      "text": "机器人有催化"
    },
    {
      "start": 2707.0,
      "end": 2710.76,
      "text": "然后我把算力就放在AI应用里边一起"
    },
    {
      "start": 2710.76,
      "end": 2714.16,
      "text": "那么大家可以今天晚上再去了解一下"
    },
    {
      "start": 2714.16,
      "end": 2716.84,
      "text": "然后看明天整体的一个情况"
    },
    {
      "start": 2717.88,
      "end": 2718.08,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2718.08,
      "end": 2720.04,
      "text": "因为起来的节点"
    },
    {
      "start": 2720.04,
      "end": 2720.36,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2720.36,
      "end": 2724.24,
      "text": "我们如果把它当做这一轮的一个趋势的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 2724.24,
      "end": 2726.16,
      "text": "这是起点出现的东西"
    },
    {
      "start": 2726.16,
      "end": 2727.52,
      "text": "我们一定要重视"
    },
    {
      "start": 2727.52,
      "end": 2730.04,
      "text": "也不说他走出多牛逼的主线行情"
    },
    {
      "start": 2730.2,
      "end": 2735.68,
      "text": "至少我觉得会在我们这一轮反弹的期间"
    },
    {
      "start": 2735.68,
      "end": 2737.2,
      "text": "都会有所表现"
    },
    {
      "start": 2737.4,
      "end": 2737.76,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2737.76,
      "end": 2741.44,
      "text": "但前提也成立在我们这一轮反弹确实是OK"
    },
    {
      "start": 2741.44,
      "end": 2742.12,
      "text": "没有问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 2742.12,
      "end": 2744.68,
      "text": "也就是说我们周一表现不能弱"
    },
    {
      "start": 2744.68,
      "end": 2745.92,
      "text": "表现不能差"
    },
    {
      "start": 2745.92,
      "end": 2747.32,
      "text": "整个双创走的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2747.88,
      "end": 2749.2799999999997,
      "text": "你可以不涨"
    },
    {
      "start": 2749.2799999999997,
      "end": 2750.36,
      "text": "但是你不能给我往前走"
    },
    {
      "start": 2750.36,
      "end": 2752.48,
      "text": "往下杀往下杀就不对了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2752.76,
      "end": 2753.24,
      "text": "好吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2753.24,
      "end": 2754.76,
      "text": "如果他不往下杀"
    },
    {
      "start": 2755.24,
      "end": 2757.64,
      "text": "AI硬件也能够得到修复"
    },
    {
      "start": 2758.08,
      "end": 2760.88,
      "text": "应用这边我认为也能够得到修复"
    },
    {
      "start": 2761.2799999999997,
      "end": 2765.68,
      "text": "唯一不好的可能就是保险高股息"
    },
    {
      "start": 2765.88,
      "end": 2766.24,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2766.24,
      "end": 2767.56,
      "text": "因为中正红利"
    },
    {
      "start": 2767.56,
      "end": 2771.04,
      "text": "他跟硬科技就AI硬件那边是翘翘板"
    },
    {
      "start": 2771.04,
      "end": 2773.16,
      "text": "这种东西跟AI硬件是翘翘板"
    },
    {
      "start": 2773.8,
      "end": 2776.2799999999997,
      "text": "所以后续我在看好的情况下"
    },
    {
      "start": 2776.2799999999997,
      "end": 2779.24,
      "text": "这种东西我认为就可以稍微先出来了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2779.24,
      "end": 2779.56,
      "text": "好吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2779.56,
      "end": 2780.2,
      "text": "可以稍微先出来了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2780.36,
      "end": 2784.44,
      "text": "除非是我们趋势彻底被否定"
    },
    {
      "start": 2784.44,
      "end": 2786.6,
      "text": "我们继续看下一轮的整个下跌"
    },
    {
      "start": 2786.6,
      "end": 2789.68,
      "text": "但我认为这个情况可能不太大"
    },
    {
      "start": 2789.68,
      "end": 2791.76,
      "text": "我认为我们我认为8月份"
    },
    {
      "start": 2791.76,
      "end": 2795.48,
      "text": "我们是看反弹的情况下会情况会比较大一点"
    },
    {
      "start": 2795.48,
      "end": 2797.44,
      "text": "所以这是这是很好的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2797.44,
      "end": 2799.36,
      "text": "因此对于港股"
    },
    {
      "start": 2799.36,
      "end": 2802.52,
      "text": "我们就不能再去把它简单的看为消费"
    },
    {
      "start": 2802.52,
      "end": 2803.56,
      "text": "或者是怎么对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2803.56,
      "end": 2808.68,
      "text": "他港股是有可能会进行一波表现的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2808.68,
      "end": 2810.36,
      "text": "因为整个周五的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 2810.36,
      "end": 2812.7200000000003,
      "text": "港股表现没有那么好"
    },
    {
      "start": 2812.7200000000003,
      "end": 2814.0,
      "text": "但是也还行"
    },
    {
      "start": 2814.0,
      "end": 2815.24,
      "text": "我认为也还行"
    },
    {
      "start": 2815.24,
      "end": 2819.0,
      "text": "所以说你所以说做港股的就好吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2819.0,
      "end": 2821.12,
      "text": "如果这一波AI应用有机会的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 2821.12,
      "end": 2824.24,
      "text": "港股这边肯定是有肯定是会有机会的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2825.24,
      "end": 2826.88,
      "text": "包括金山云这种东西对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2826.88,
      "end": 2829.2,
      "text": "金山云他整体长得也很不错"
    },
    {
      "start": 2829.76,
      "end": 2831.76,
      "text": "所以这都是机会"
    },
    {
      "start": 2831.76,
      "end": 2834.52,
      "text": "但是行情它是一步一步走出来的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2834.52,
      "end": 2836.36,
      "text": "你现在问我他能涨多少"
    },
    {
      "start": 2836.36,
      "end": 2837.96,
      "text": "涨多少天我不知道好吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2837.96,
      "end": 2838.24,
      "text": "这个东西你做股票不要去猜啊"
    },
    {
      "start": 2838.24,
      "end": 2838.32,
      "text": "这个东西你做股票不要去猜啊"
    },
    {
      "start": 2838.32,
      "end": 2838.48,
      "text": "这个东西你做股票不要去猜啊"
    },
    {
      "start": 2838.48,
      "end": 2838.76,
      "text": "这个东西你做股票不要去猜啊"
    },
    {
      "start": 2838.76,
      "end": 2838.96,
      "text": "这个东西你做股票不要去猜啊"
    },
    {
      "start": 2838.96,
      "end": 2840.52,
      "text": "这个东西你做股票不要去猜啊"
    },
    {
      "start": 2841.36,
      "end": 2843.12,
      "text": "行情是一步一步走出来的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2843.12,
      "end": 2844.56,
      "text": "它如果走弱我们走掉"
    },
    {
      "start": 2844.56,
      "end": 2847.52,
      "text": "它如果走强我们持有就这么简单"
    },
    {
      "start": 2847.52,
      "end": 2850.08,
      "text": "那么就根据我在交易之道里面"
    },
    {
      "start": 2850.08,
      "end": 2853.7200000000003,
      "text": "跟你们说的强趋势的做法去做好不好"
    },
    {
      "start": 2854.92,
      "end": 2856.92,
      "text": "不要死拿着不动"
    },
    {
      "start": 2856.92,
      "end": 2859.16,
      "text": "被套的到时候又又说好吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2859.16,
      "end": 2861.48,
      "text": "不要这个样子动起来"
    },
    {
      "start": 2861.48,
      "end": 2864.56,
      "text": "其他的其他也没有太多太多可以讲的吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2865.76,
      "end": 2867.8,
      "text": "哦对了忘了讲一个东西"
    },
    {
      "start": 2867.8,
      "end": 2868.88,
      "text": "买了cc"
    },
    {
      "start": 2868.88,
      "end": 2868.92,
      "text": "买了cc"
    },
    {
      "start": 2868.92,
      "end": 2868.96,
      "text": "买了cc"
    },
    {
      "start": 2868.96,
      "end": 2869.92,
      "text": "刚好有人问我"
    },
    {
      "start": 2869.92,
      "end": 2872.08,
      "text": "我也想跟各位讲一下"
    },
    {
      "start": 2872.08,
      "end": 2875.84,
      "text": "因为mlcc他启动的相对久早一点对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2875.84,
      "end": 2877.08,
      "text": "周一都都启动了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2877.08,
      "end": 2879.08,
      "text": "然后他随后走比较强"
    },
    {
      "start": 2879.08,
      "end": 2884.7200000000003,
      "text": "所以有些人可能会会把他当做就是这一轮反弹的东西"
    },
    {
      "start": 2884.7200000000003,
      "end": 2885.6,
      "text": "不要去这样想"
    },
    {
      "start": 2885.6,
      "end": 2889.4,
      "text": "mlcc涨是因为本身一个底"
    },
    {
      "start": 2889.4,
      "end": 2891.52,
      "text": "政策底已经跌出来了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2891.52,
      "end": 2893.24,
      "text": "那么他有明确的利好"
    },
    {
      "start": 2893.24,
      "end": 2894.96,
      "text": "他涨价了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2894.96,
      "end": 2897.08,
      "text": "所以他能够提前走"
    },
    {
      "start": 2897.08,
      "end": 2898.92,
      "text": "但如果硬件这边走的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2898.92,
      "end": 2899.76,
      "text": "不强的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 2899.76,
      "end": 2901.04,
      "text": "他是会被砸的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2901.04,
      "end": 2902.64,
      "text": "他一定会提前被砸"
    },
    {
      "start": 2902.64,
      "end": 2906.8,
      "text": "因为mlcc在在周三周四的时候太强了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2906.8,
      "end": 2909.04,
      "text": "你看风华高科他只是10厘米"
    },
    {
      "start": 2909.04,
      "end": 2911.48,
      "text": "但是云种科技这个东西已经走的很强"
    },
    {
      "start": 2911.48,
      "end": 2912.56,
      "text": "非常强了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2912.56,
      "end": 2913.8,
      "text": "那么在这种情况下"
    },
    {
      "start": 2913.8,
      "end": 2915.56,
      "text": "你们再去做mlcc"
    },
    {
      "start": 2916.68,
      "end": 2917.56,
      "text": "为什么呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2919.0,
      "end": 2921.2799999999997,
      "text": "这不就是追高中的追高吗"
    },
    {
      "start": 2921.2799999999997,
      "end": 2921.6,
      "text": "对不对"
    },
    {
      "start": 2921.6,
      "end": 2922.04,
      "text": "包括"
    },
    {
      "start": 2922.8,
      "end": 2925.48,
      "text": "风华高科周四本身他就"
    },
    {
      "start": 2926.52,
      "end": 2928.88,
      "text": "风华高科本身周四就已经炸了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2928.88,
      "end": 2931.92,
      "text": "周四尾盘炸板了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2932.04,
      "end": 2934.04,
      "text": "你们还敢去接这种东西"
    },
    {
      "start": 2934.04,
      "end": 2935.4,
      "text": "不应该对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2935.4,
      "end": 2939.12,
      "text": "你7月被科技股这样砸"
    },
    {
      "start": 2939.12,
      "end": 2940.92,
      "text": "经历了一轮股灾之后"
    },
    {
      "start": 2940.92,
      "end": 2943.8,
      "text": "你们还敢去做这种动作是不应该的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2943.8,
      "end": 2944.4,
      "text": "好不好"
    },
    {
      "start": 2944.4,
      "end": 2946.08,
      "text": "至于他后面怎么去涨"
    },
    {
      "start": 2946.08,
      "end": 2947.48,
      "text": "这是后面的事情了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2947.92,
      "end": 2952.52,
      "text": "但是你们在周五的行为就不能去参与mlcc"
    },
    {
      "start": 2953.68,
      "end": 2957.76,
      "text": "而且我当时说他本身也只是一个涨价概念"
    },
    {
      "start": 2957.76,
      "end": 2958.36,
      "text": "就是"
    },
    {
      "start": 2958.36,
      "end": 2959.96,
      "text": "海外的那些大厂"
    },
    {
      "start": 2960.84,
      "end": 2962.64,
      "text": "人家干不了的订单"
    },
    {
      "start": 2962.64,
      "end": 2965.92,
      "text": "一些低价的廉价的东西传导到我们这里"
    },
    {
      "start": 2965.92,
      "end": 2969.7200000000003,
      "text": "并且mlcc在整个rubin的机构机柜里面"
    },
    {
      "start": 2969.7200000000003,
      "end": 2971.64,
      "text": "它占比并没有那么高"
    },
    {
      "start": 2971.64,
      "end": 2972.88,
      "text": "它只是从"
    },
    {
      "start": 2973.48,
      "end": 2974.76,
      "text": "b300对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2974.76,
      "end": 2976.04,
      "text": "b300可能用的少"
    },
    {
      "start": 2976.04,
      "end": 2977.56,
      "text": "然后到rubin用的差不多"
    },
    {
      "start": 2977.56,
      "end": 2979.36,
      "text": "它整体增长的比较高"
    },
    {
      "start": 2979.36,
      "end": 2982.44,
      "text": "但并不代表它的一个重要性很高"
    },
    {
      "start": 2982.68,
      "end": 2985.48,
      "text": "所以你们做科技股做硬科技"
    },
    {
      "start": 2985.76,
      "end": 2986.7200000000003,
      "text": "这都什么时候了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2986.7200000000003,
      "end": 2988.2,
      "text": "你们一定要做那种"
    },
    {
      "start": 2988.36,
      "end": 2991.64,
      "text": "真的就我们这边能有话语权的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2992.36,
      "end": 2994.24,
      "text": "你至少说你去做一个pcb"
    },
    {
      "start": 2995.36,
      "end": 2997.04,
      "text": "你至少说你去做一个光"
    },
    {
      "start": 2997.96,
      "end": 2999.16,
      "text": "这些我都能理解"
    },
    {
      "start": 2999.16,
      "end": 2999.6,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2999.6,
      "end": 3001.76,
      "text": "你去做人剩下的东西"
    },
    {
      "start": 3001.76,
      "end": 3002.96,
      "text": "你去做存储"
    },
    {
      "start": 3002.96,
      "end": 3004.04,
      "text": "我就不能理解"
    },
    {
      "start": 3004.04,
      "end": 3006.32,
      "text": "长兴这边扩产完了之后"
    },
    {
      "start": 3007.04,
      "end": 3008.52,
      "text": "不光是床长兴扩产"
    },
    {
      "start": 3009.56,
      "end": 3012.04,
      "text": "sk海力是三星那边都在扩产"
    },
    {
      "start": 3012.04,
      "end": 3013.32,
      "text": "扩产一年半"
    },
    {
      "start": 3013.92,
      "end": 3015.88,
      "text": "差不多最开始这一批"
    },
    {
      "start": 3015.88,
      "end": 3017.32,
      "text": "今年下半年就出来了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3017.32,
      "end": 3017.76,
      "text": "明年"
    },
    {
      "start": 3018.36,
      "end": 3021.08,
      "text": "明年下半年明年上半年扩产就出来了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3021.08,
      "end": 3022.64,
      "text": "出来之后这些存储公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 3022.64,
      "end": 3024.56,
      "text": "它能有好日子过吗"
    },
    {
      "start": 3024.56,
      "end": 3026.88,
      "text": "你说白了这些公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 3026.88,
      "end": 3028.7200000000003,
      "text": "这些虽然是科技公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 3028.7200000000003,
      "end": 3030.36,
      "text": "但它本质上它是制造业"
    },
    {
      "start": 3030.36,
      "end": 3031.68,
      "text": "它是贴牌的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3032.36,
      "end": 3034.6,
      "text": "那么这种制造业的这种公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 3034.6,
      "end": 3037.92,
      "text": "它是要根据整个周期去动的制造业"
    },
    {
      "start": 3037.92,
      "end": 3039.68,
      "text": "是周期性行业"
    },
    {
      "start": 3039.92,
      "end": 3040.84,
      "text": "缺的时候扩产"
    },
    {
      "start": 3040.84,
      "end": 3041.76,
      "text": "扩产完了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3041.96,
      "end": 3043.76,
      "text": "就是他们主压最高点了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3043.76,
      "end": 3045.2799999999997,
      "text": "所以这些存储公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 3045.2799999999997,
      "end": 3047.76,
      "text": "我很早我就说我不看了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3047.76,
      "end": 3049.8,
      "text": "长期上市之后更不能看"
    },
    {
      "start": 3049.8,
      "end": 3050.52,
      "text": "好吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 3050.88,
      "end": 3052.44,
      "text": "王已经出来了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3053.12,
      "end": 3054.84,
      "text": "王的PE只有36"
    },
    {
      "start": 3054.84,
      "end": 3057.92,
      "text": "你让那些存储公司他们怎么去做"
    },
    {
      "start": 3058.68,
      "end": 3061.04,
      "text": "虽然德明利现在的PE非常低"
    },
    {
      "start": 3061.04,
      "end": 3064.84,
      "text": "但是它这种低反而是它的最高点"
    },
    {
      "start": 3065.2799999999997,
      "end": 3067.6,
      "text": "因为它是周期性的行业"
    },
    {
      "start": 3067.6,
      "end": 3068.76,
      "text": "我们说它对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 3068.76,
      "end": 3071.16,
      "text": "你去拿ROE算"
    },
    {
      "start": 3071.16,
      "end": 3073.96,
      "text": "它的ROE还能够去涨吗"
    },
    {
      "start": 3074.44,
      "end": 3076.48,
      "text": "我不认为它ROE还能涨了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3076.48,
      "end": 3078.92,
      "text": "那么一旦它ROE没办法涨了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3079.44,
      "end": 3080.7200000000003,
      "text": "它是不是就结束了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3080.92,
      "end": 3082.16,
      "text": "你们要去这样想问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 3082.96,
      "end": 3084.7200000000003,
      "text": "这种制造业成长"
    },
    {
      "start": 3084.7200000000003,
      "end": 3086.64,
      "text": "涨不动的时候就已经结束了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3086.64,
      "end": 3087.0,
      "text": "好吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 3087.0,
      "end": 3088.24,
      "text": "成长已经到头了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3088.24,
      "end": 3091.36,
      "text": "国产半导体我是会继续去看的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3091.36,
      "end": 3092.7200000000003,
      "text": "我们国产替代这一块"
    },
    {
      "start": 3092.7200000000003,
      "end": 3094.0,
      "text": "我是会继续去看的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3094.84,
      "end": 3097.8,
      "text": "我认为它会在后面走出独立性"
    },
    {
      "start": 3098.32,
      "end": 3100.7200000000003,
      "text": "但是当前是跟科技强绑定的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3101.56,
      "end": 3104.0,
      "text": "所以找相对低的位置"
    },
    {
      "start": 3104.0,
      "end": 3105.92,
      "text": "更健康的位置去介入"
    },
    {
      "start": 3105.92,
      "end": 3107.52,
      "text": "会更为好一点"
    },
    {
      "start": 3107.52,
      "end": 3109.0,
      "text": "所以索成科技这种"
    },
    {
      "start": 3109.0,
      "end": 3111.04,
      "text": "就整个周五也涨得不错"
    },
    {
      "start": 3111.04,
      "end": 3113.12,
      "text": "它就是我说的卖数据"
    },
    {
      "start": 3113.12,
      "end": 3114.68,
      "text": "就物理AI对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 3115.44,
      "end": 3118.2,
      "text": "但当然索成科技这种国内的这种公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 3118.2,
      "end": 3121.0,
      "text": "它一定程度上可能就是炒概念的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3121.48,
      "end": 3123.8,
      "text": "但只要这个概念这一波还能涨"
    },
    {
      "start": 3123.8,
      "end": 3125.44,
      "text": "那么他们就能继续做下去"
    },
    {
      "start": 3125.44,
      "end": 3125.84,
      "text": "好吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 3125.84,
      "end": 3127.4,
      "text": "所以差不多就这个样子"
    },
    {
      "start": 3129.2,
      "end": 3131.2,
      "text": "玩复盘时候我们再好好说"
    },
    {
      "start": 3131.52,
      "end": 3132.84,
      "text": "那今天视频就到这里"
    },
    {
      "start": 3132.84,
      "end": 3133.12,
      "text": "好吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 3133.12,
      "end": 3133.76,
      "text": "谢谢大家"
    }
  ]
}