{ "conclusion": { "base_midpoint": "35.34636363634545667764603134", "price_label": "当前价格处于基准合理区间", "price_position": "WITHIN_BASE_RANGE", "safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "0.02649108819167542257251583084" }, "engine_version": "1.0.0", "holding_period": { "cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0", "required_exit_price": "55.4176491", "required_profit_by_exit_pe": [ { "exit_pe": "20", "required_profit": "5819535615.536019135" }, { "exit_pe": "25", "required_profit": "4655628492.428815308" }, { "exit_pe": "30", "required_profit": "3879690410.35734609" }, { "exit_pe": "35", "required_profit": "3325448923.163439505714285714" }, { "exit_pe": "40", "required_profit": "2909767807.7680095675" }, { "exit_pe": "50", "required_profit": "2327814246.214407654" }, { "exit_pe": "60", "required_profit": "1939845205.178673045" }, { "exit_pe": "75", "required_profit": "1551876164.142938436" }, { "exit_pe": "100", "required_profit": "1163907123.107203827" } ], "required_return": "0.1", "years": 5 }, "institutions": { "coverage_status": "available", "detail": [ { "core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期;估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期,不替代单家研报。", "estimates": { "2026": { "eps": "1.198181818182", "profit": "2516476926.769473" }, "2027": { "eps": "1.450909090909", "profit": "3047266445.465264" }, "2028": { "eps": "1.73", "profit": "3633426093.81" } }, "included": true, "institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总(覆盖池11家)", "report_date": "2026-08-04", "source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260804", "statuses": [ "CURRENT" ] } ], "summary": { "2026": { "eps_mean": "1.198181818182", "eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000009058139877031404155382672621", "institution_count": 1, "pe_on_mean": "28.71851289832644375479803479", "profit_max": "2516476926.769473", "profit_mean": "2516476926.769473", "profit_median": "2516476926.769473", "profit_min": "2516476926.769473" }, "2027": { "eps_mean": "1.450909090909", "eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0000000000000001266797659175682831995114593", "institution_count": 1, "pe_on_mean": "23.71616541353531755738441967", "profit_max": "3047266445.465264", "profit_mean": "3047266445.465264", "profit_median": "3047266445.465264", "profit_min": "3047266445.465264" }, "2028": { "eps_mean": "1.73", "eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0", "institution_count": 1, "pe_on_mean": "19.89017341040462427745664740", "profit_max": "3633426093.81", "profit_mean": "3633426093.81", "profit_median": "3633426093.81", "profit_min": "3633426093.81" } } }, "meta": { "as_of_date": "2026-08-04", "code": "002179.SZ", "company": "中航光电", "currency": "CNY", "latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-25", "market": "深圳证券交易所", "report_period_end": "2026-03-31" }, "metrics": { "annual_cash_conversion": "0.7225627607155963925423477203", "annual_fcf": "-20306341.77", "book_value_per_share": "11.74776413626501444558909273", "current_fcf": "-2519922007.78", "deduct_pe": "38.88521145924562258695225224", "diluted_shares": "2100246297.0", "enterprise_value": "70793319154.810", "market_cap": "72269475079.770", "normalized_eps": "0.8849122509225403624173131919", "normalized_pe": "38.88521145924561777477223060", "normalized_profit": "1858533678.17000023", "pb": "2.929067999737695335353195403", "price": "34.41", "ps": "3.373982910817607787636243577", "reported_pe": "37.64144188919539225056144152", "ttm_attributable_profit": "1919944387.16", "ttm_deduct_profit": "1858533678.17", "ttm_eps": "0.9141520163146846391035441497", "ttm_revenue": "21419632816.77" }, "normalization_adjustments": [ { "amount": "-61410708.98999977", "basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数", "description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理" } ], "qa": { "error_count": 0, "info_count": 0, "issues": [ { "action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。", "field": "metrics.annual_fcf", "issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF", "message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。", "recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证", "severity": "WARNING" } ], "status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS", "warning_count": 1 }, "reverse_pe": [ { "implied_eps": "1.7205", "implied_margin": "0.1686991455408803893818121789", "implied_profit": "3613473753.9885", "pe": "20" }, { "implied_eps": "1.3764", "implied_margin": "0.1349593164327043115054497431", "implied_profit": "2890779003.1908", "pe": "25" }, { "implied_eps": "1.147", "implied_margin": "0.1124660970272535929212081192", "implied_profit": "2408982502.659", "pe": "30" }, { "implied_eps": "0.9831428571428571428571428571", "implied_margin": "0.09639951173764593678960695937", "implied_profit": "2064842145.136285714285714286", "pe": "35" }, { "implied_eps": "0.86025", "implied_margin": "0.08434957277044019469090608944", "implied_profit": "1806736876.99425", "pe": "40" }, { "implied_eps": "0.6882", "implied_margin": "0.06747965821635215575272487155", "implied_profit": "1445389501.5954", "pe": "50" }, { "implied_eps": "0.5735", "implied_margin": "0.05623304851362679646060405962", "implied_profit": "1204491251.3295", "pe": "60" }, { "implied_eps": "0.4588", "implied_margin": "0.04498643881090143716848324770", "implied_profit": "963593001.0636", "pe": "75" }, { "implied_eps": "0.3441", "implied_margin": "0.03373982910817607787636243577", "implied_profit": "722694750.7977", "pe": "100" } ], "scenarios": [ { "assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期,利润下修且估值回归低位。", "cagr_high": "-0.11110257103984733", "cagr_low": "-0.2236373848430061", "equity_value_high": "40106351020.50", "equity_value_low": "20383463106.90", "method": "pe", "name": "悲观", "price_high": "19.09602272732872719832249275", "price_low": "9.705272727306229836909456529", "role": "pessimistic", "upside_to_high": "-0.4450443845588861610484599608", "upside_to_low": "-0.7179519695638991619613642392" }, { "assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与11家机构覆盖池预期为锚,按行业成长和周期属性定价。", "cagr_high": "0.06984481801766096", "cagr_low": "-0.08173535190471282", "equity_value_high": "101288196302.30", "equity_value_low": "47183942377.00", "method": "pe", "name": "基准", "price_high": "48.22681818174394810038796131", "price_low": "22.46590909094696525490410137", "role": "base", "upside_to_high": "0.401534966048937753571286292", "upside_to_low": "-0.3471110406583270777418162926" }, { "assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期,利润与估值中枢同步上移。", "cagr_high": "0.21893636349197143", "cagr_low": "0.09043384940557275", "equity_value_high": "194473336900.8", "equity_value_low": "111417015932.60", "method": "pe", "name": "乐观", "price_high": "92.59549090913121605184765623", "price_low": "53.04949999995167233474236665", "role": "optimistic", "upside_to_high": "1.690947134819273933503273939", "upside_to_low": "0.541688462654800125973332364" } ] }