{ "conclusion": { "base_midpoint": "42.07999999991848687146902704", "price_label": "当前价格处于基准合理区间", "price_position": "WITHIN_BASE_RANGE", "safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-0.06511406844312787024622510011" }, "engine_version": "1.0.0", "holding_period": { "cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0", "required_exit_price": "72.1830582", "required_profit_by_exit_pe": [ { "exit_pe": "20", "required_profit": "885539047.52376459" }, { "exit_pe": "25", "required_profit": "708431238.019011672" }, { "exit_pe": "30", "required_profit": "590359365.01584306" }, { "exit_pe": "35", "required_profit": "506022312.8707226228571428571" }, { "exit_pe": "40", "required_profit": "442769523.761882295" }, { "exit_pe": "50", "required_profit": "354215619.009505836" }, { "exit_pe": "60", "required_profit": "295179682.50792153" }, { "exit_pe": "75", "required_profit": "236143746.006337224" }, { "exit_pe": "100", "required_profit": "177107809.504752918" } ], "required_return": "0.1", "years": 5 }, "institutions": { "coverage_status": "available", "detail": [ { "core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。", "estimates": { "2026": { "eps": "2.104", "profit": "516235859.896" }, "2027": { "eps": "2.9", "profit": "711541822.1" }, "2028": { "eps": "3.2425", "profit": "795577364.8825" } }, "included": true, "institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池5家）", "report_date": "2026-08-04", "source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260804", "statuses": [ "CURRENT" ] } ], "summary": { "2026": { "eps_mean": "2.104", "eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0", "institution_count": 1, "pe_on_mean": "21.30228136882129277566539924", "profit_max": "516235859.896", "profit_mean": "516235859.896", "profit_median": "516235859.896", "profit_min": "516235859.896" }, "2027": { "eps_mean": "2.9", "eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0", "institution_count": 1, "pe_on_mean": "15.45517241379310344827586207", "profit_max": "711541822.1", "profit_mean": "711541822.1", "profit_median": "711541822.1", "profit_min": "711541822.1" }, "2028": { "eps_mean": "3.2425", "eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0", "institution_count": 1, "pe_on_mean": "13.82266769468003084040092521", "profit_max": "795577364.8825", "profit_mean": "795577364.8825", "profit_median": "795577364.8825", "profit_min": "795577364.8825" } } }, "meta": { "as_of_date": "2026-08-04", "code": "688063.SH", "company": "派能科技", "currency": "CNY", "latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-23", "market": "上海证券交易所", "report_period_end": "2026-03-31" }, "metrics": { "annual_cash_conversion": "8.056233566919038436995823087", "annual_fcf": "173950839.24", "book_value_per_share": "37.65541833937549670279598875", "current_fcf": "-400168340.16", "deduct_pe": "236.1547418385499069946991021", "diluted_shares": "245359249.0", "enterprise_value": "5469203802.660", "market_cap": "10997001540.180", "normalized_eps": "0.1897908111057187006632874068", "normalized_pe": "236.1547418385499577076701689", "normalized_profit": "46566930.88", "pb": "1.190266951652284462068196985", "price": "44.82", "ps": "2.937388960307597166977203320", "reported_pe": "75.74193750881168849448993330", "ttm_attributable_profit": "145190391.24", "ttm_deduct_profit": "46566930.88000001", "ttm_eps": "0.5917461511304185643313572418", "ttm_revenue": "3743801617.28" }, "normalization_adjustments": [ { "amount": "-98623460.36", "basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数", "description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理" } ], "qa": { "error_count": 0, "info_count": 0, "issues": [], "status": "PASS", "warning_count": 0 }, "reverse_pe": [ { "implied_eps": "2.241", "implied_margin": "0.1468694480153798583488601660", "implied_profit": "549850077.009", "pe": "20" }, { "implied_eps": "1.7928", "implied_margin": "0.1174955584123038866790881328", "implied_profit": "439880061.6072", "pe": "25" }, { "implied_eps": "1.494", "implied_margin": "0.09791296534358657223257344402", "implied_profit": "366566718.006", "pe": "30" }, { "implied_eps": "1.280571428571428571428571429", "implied_margin": "0.08392539886593134762792009488", "implied_profit": "314200044.0051428571428571429", "pe": "35" }, { "implied_eps": "1.1205", "implied_margin": "0.07343472400768992917443008301", "implied_profit": "274925038.5045", "pe": "40" }, { "implied_eps": "0.8964", "implied_margin": "0.05874777920615194333954406641", "implied_profit": "219940030.8036", "pe": "50" }, { "implied_eps": "0.747", "implied_margin": "0.04895648267179328611628672201", "implied_profit": "183283359.003", "pe": "60" }, { "implied_eps": "0.5976", "implied_margin": "0.03916518613743462889302937761", "implied_profit": "146626687.2024", "pe": "75" }, { "implied_eps": "0.4482", "implied_margin": "0.02937388960307597166977203320", "implied_profit": "109970015.4018", "pe": "100" } ], "scenarios": [ { "assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。", "cagr_high": "-0.13695227714943947", "cagr_low": "-0.2672475496475363", "equity_value_high": "5265605770.88", "equity_value_low": "2323061369.50", "method": "pe", "name": "悲观", "price_high": "21.46079999975872113954832002", "price_low": "9.467999999869578994350443256", "role": "pessimistic", "upside_to_high": "-0.5211780455207781985821436854", "upside_to_low": "-0.7887550200832311692469780621" }, { "assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与5家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。", "cagr_high": "0.0617990842845797", "cagr_low": "-0.11987312782037474", "equity_value_high": "14841780972.00", "equity_value_low": "5807653423.80", "method": "pe", "name": "基准", "price_high": "60.48999999995924343573451352", "price_low": "23.66999999987773030720354055", "role": "base", "upside_to_high": "0.349620705041482450596486245", "upside_to_low": "-0.4718875502035312292011704473" }, { "assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。", "cagr_high": "0.2147686090110037", "cagr_low": "0.08223327652104118", "equity_value_high": "29089890705.05", "equity_value_low": "16325959069.25", "method": "pe", "name": "乐观", "price_high": "118.5603999996348211841812411", "price_low": "66.53900000015895060063539728", "role": "optimistic", "upside_to_high": "1.645256581874940231686328449", "upside_to_low": "0.484582775550177389572409578" } ] }