Cai
6 days ago 129e0ebd2ca859b3463ad2c31ae335c72bace22d
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{
  "snapshot_id": "03888-HK-20260905-current",
  "meta": {
    "company": "金山软件",
    "code": "03888.HK",
    "market": "香港联合交易所主板",
    "as_of_date": "2026-09-05",
    "currency": "HKD",
    "report_period_end": "2026-06-30",
    "latest_operating_info_date": "2026-08-19"
  },
  "market": {
    "price": 25.60,
    "price_type": "香港市场最新完整交易日未复权收盘价",
    "price_timestamp": "2026-09-04T16:00:00+08:00",
    "diluted_shares": 1374440310,
    "shares_date": "2026-09-05",
    "platform_market_cap": 35185671936
  },
  "financials": {
    "annual": {
      "period_end": "2025-12-31",
      "basis": "audited_converted_to_hkd_at_2026-09-04_central_parity",
      "revenue": 11199519998.15,
      "attributable_profit": 2318337227.32,
      "deduct_profit": 2318337227.32,
      "cfo": 2650558652.76,
      "capex": null
    },
    "current_cumulative": {
      "period_end": "2026-06-30",
      "basis": "interim_report_unaudited_converted_to_hkd_at_2026-09-04_central_parity",
      "revenue": 5698873441.44,
      "attributable_profit": 1896037382.31,
      "deduct_profit": 671511022.69,
      "cfo": 820797381.39,
      "capex": null
    },
    "prior_year_same_period": {
      "period_end": "2025-06-30",
      "basis": "reported_comparative_converted_to_hkd_at_2026-09-04_central_parity",
      "revenue": 5373021582.73,
      "attributable_profit": 944174049.83,
      "deduct_profit": 770798538.02,
      "cfo": 768999976.87,
      "capex": null
    }
  },
  "balance_sheet": {
    "period_end": "2026-06-30",
    "equity": 31325134747.51,
    "cash_available": 28330625274.70,
    "non_operating_financial_assets": 3903786809.78,
    "interest_bearing_debt": 255509033.29,
    "minority_interest": 9237049193.60
  },
  "normalization": {
    "adjustments": [
      {
        "description": "2026H1以公司披露的经调整归母净利润替代受未实现投资收益显著影响的IFRS归母利润",
        "amount": -1224526359.62,
        "basis": "2026H1 IFRS归母16.393亿元人民币,非IFRS经调整归母5.806亿元人民币"
      }
    ]
  },
  "valuation": {
    "scenarios": [
      {
        "name": "悲观",
        "role": "pessimistic",
        "method": "pe",
        "profit_low": 925767889.61,
        "profit_high": 1272298688.84,
        "multiple_low": 12,
        "multiple_high": 18,
        "assumption": "游戏继续收缩、AI投入压制费用率,经调整利润低于H1年化水平。"
      },
      {
        "name": "基准",
        "role": "base",
        "method": "pe",
        "profit_low": 1387957158.85,
        "profit_high": 1850609561.40,
        "multiple_low": 18,
        "multiple_high": 24,
        "assumption": "WPS维持较快增长,游戏降幅逐步收窄,估值以经调整利润并保留控股折价。"
      },
      {
        "name": "乐观",
        "role": "optimistic",
        "method": "pe",
        "profit_low": 1966291112.45,
        "profit_high": 2549237761.23,
        "multiple_low": 24,
        "multiple_high": 30,
        "assumption": "WPS AI商业化超预期、游戏新品改善,经常利润恢复且投资收益占比下降。"
      }
    ],
    "reverse_pe_multiples": [12, 15, 18, 20, 22, 24, 25, 30, 35, 40],
    "exit_pe_multiples": [12, 15, 18, 20, 22, 24, 25, 30],
    "holding_period": {
      "years": 5,
      "required_return": 0.1,
      "cumulative_dividend_per_share": 0.13
    }
  },
  "institutions": {
    "coverage_status": "no_usable_forecasts",
    "forecasts": []
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "SRC-HKEX-03888-H1-20260819",
      "source_type": "archived_primary",
      "title": "金山软件截至2026年6月30日止六个月及三个月业绩公告",
      "publish_date": "2026-08-19",
      "period_end": "2026-06-30",
      "url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0819/2026081901069.pdf",
      "supports": ["financials.current_cumulative", "financials.prior_year_same_period", "balance_sheet.equity", "balance_sheet.cash_available", "balance_sheet.interest_bearing_debt", "analysis"],
      "revision_status": "current"
    },
    {
      "id": "SRC-HKEX-03888-ANNUAL-2025",
      "source_type": "archived_primary",
      "title": "金山软件2025年年度业绩公告",
      "publish_date": "2026-03-25",
      "period_end": "2025-12-31",
      "url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0325/2026032500615.pdf",
      "supports": ["financials.annual"],
      "revision_status": "current"
    },
    {
      "id": "SRC-EM-03888-20260904",
      "source_type": "quote_provider",
      "title": "东方财富金山软件2026-09-04未复权日K与总股本",
      "publish_date": "2026-09-05",
      "period_end": "2026-09-04",
      "url": "https://push2his.eastmoney.com/api/qt/stock/kline/get?secid=116.03888",
      "supports": ["market.price", "market.diluted_shares", "market.platform_market_cap"],
      "revision_status": "current"
    },
    {
      "id": "SRC-FX-HKD-CNY-20260904",
      "source_type": "professional_database",
      "title": "2026-09-04人民币汇率中间价:1港元兑0.86458人民币",
      "publish_date": "2026-09-04",
      "period_end": "2026-09-04",
      "url": "https://hzf.mofcom.gov.cn/article/zyfw/jrfw/jrfwywzn/jrfwwh/hlfxglzy/202609/7872.html",
      "supports": ["financials", "balance_sheet", "valuation"],
      "revision_status": "current"
    }
  ],
  "analysis": {
    "company_type": "控股型软件集团,核心为金山办公与网络游戏",
    "primary_model": "经调整归母利润PE,控股折价、净现金和分部趋势交叉验证",
    "cross_checks": ["2026H1经调整归母利润", "WPS与游戏分部趋势", "净现金", "控股公司折价"],
    "profit_sources": ["2026H1办公软件及服务收入33.13亿元人民币,同比增长25%;游戏及其他收入16.14亿元,同比下降19%。"],
    "profit_source_quality": ["H1 IFRS归母16.39亿元含大额合营及联营投资未实现收益,经调整归母仅5.81亿元且同比下降13%,估值必须采用后者。"],
    "risks": ["游戏收入继续下滑。", "WPS AI研发和营销投入可能压制利润率。", "投资收益波动会显著扭曲报表利润。", "控股折价与所持上市资产价格波动影响SOTP。"],
    "upgrade_triggers": ["WPS AI付费和WPS 365加速且利润率稳定。", "游戏新品带动经常利润恢复。"],
    "downgrade_triggers": ["经调整利润继续下滑或游戏收入维持双位数下降。", "控股折价扩大。"],
    "fx_rate_cny_per_hkd": 0.86458,
    "executive_conclusion": "25.60港元位于基准合理区间约18.18—32.31港元,判断为基本合理;估值安全垫主要来自净现金,但经常利润仍受游戏下滑与AI投入约束。",
    "information_cutoff": "2026-09-05T23:30:00+08:00"
  }
}