1
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00:00:00,440 --> 00:00:01,380
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哈喽大家好
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2
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00:00:01,380 --> 00:00:02,920
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开始我们今天一个视频
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3
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00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:05,300
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韩后出来一个消息
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4
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00:00:05,300 --> 00:00:07,100
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这个消息其实挺有意思的
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5
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00:00:07,100 --> 00:00:08,700
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就韩国那边开始抓人了
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6
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00:00:08,700 --> 00:00:12,140
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一般来讲开始抓人就离底不远了
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7
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00:00:12,140 --> 00:00:12,980
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是吧
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8
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00:00:12,980 --> 00:00:14,160
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但开个玩笑
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9
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00:00:14,160 --> 00:00:17,960
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但这个确实值得说一下的
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10
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00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:21,360
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那么我们这个底
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11
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00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:24,040
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因为今天整体来讲
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12
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00:00:24,040 --> 00:00:26,200
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让大家就是不要太过于焦虑
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13
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00:00:26,200 --> 00:00:26,840
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对吧
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14
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00:00:26,840 --> 00:00:28,240
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因为我们其实已经
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15
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00:00:28,240 --> 00:00:30,420
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属于一个慢慢摸底的过程当中
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16
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00:00:30,420 --> 00:00:32,400
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其实看整个60分钟的话
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17
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00:00:32,400 --> 00:00:33,880
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会更为清晰一点
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18
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00:00:33,880 --> 00:00:35,440
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整体的结构
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19
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00:00:35,440 --> 00:00:37,680
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其实是慢慢走一个收敛三角形
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20
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00:00:37,680 --> 00:00:40,640
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那么差不多再推演下去
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21
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00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:43,160
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到8月7号
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22
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00:00:43,160 --> 00:00:44,360
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差不多这周五
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23
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00:00:44,360 --> 00:00:46,060
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这周五和下周一
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24
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00:00:46,060 --> 00:00:49,000
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我感觉这个位置就差不多了
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25
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00:00:49,000 --> 00:00:51,500
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时间节点上来讲的话也差不多
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26
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00:00:51,500 --> 00:00:53,600
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因为我们今天整体的量
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27
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00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:55,020
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缩量对吧
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28
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00:00:55,020 --> 00:00:56,120
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缩量是对着的
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29
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00:00:56,120 --> 00:00:57,800
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如果今天反而放量不好
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30
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00:00:57,800 --> 00:00:57,920
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不好
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31
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00:00:57,920 --> 00:00:59,380
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所以缩量就对了
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32
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00:00:59,380 --> 00:01:00,440
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缩量的话
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33
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00:01:00,440 --> 00:01:03,300
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它就会慢慢的形成一个收敛三角形
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34
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00:01:03,300 --> 00:01:06,380
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那么一旦形成我们这一波反弹
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35
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00:01:06,380 --> 00:01:09,060
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因为现在走出一个背离结构
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36
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00:01:09,060 --> 00:01:09,500
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对吧
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37
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00:01:09,500 --> 00:01:10,640
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走出一个背离结构
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38
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00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:12,620
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那么反弹的日期我们看不到
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39
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00:01:12,620 --> 00:01:13,840
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但是能够反弹
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40
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00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:15,520
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差不多高度能够看到
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41
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00:01:15,520 --> 00:01:17,400
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差不多就1900吧
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42
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00:01:17,400 --> 00:01:19,620
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科广501900好吧
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43
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00:01:19,620 --> 00:01:21,980
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这个位置我是能看得到的
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44
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00:01:21,980 --> 00:01:24,180
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所以最近就慢慢加就好了
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45
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00:01:24,180 --> 00:01:25,560
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不用太过于着急
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46
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00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:27,380
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让你加快一点
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47
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00:01:27,380 --> 00:01:27,900
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加百分之百
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48
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00:01:27,900 --> 00:01:27,920
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加百分之百
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49
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00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:33,580
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10上周二加百分之十周三加百分之十周四加百分之百分之百分之三十
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50
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00:01:33,580 --> 00:01:35,800
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然后周五高开肯定这天不能加
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51
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00:01:35,800 --> 00:01:39,260
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那你就只能今天加那百分之四十
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52
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00:01:39,260 --> 00:01:40,380
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你再慢慢加下去
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53
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00:01:40,380 --> 00:01:41,480
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我觉得差不多吧
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54
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00:01:41,480 --> 00:01:46,160
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明天正常来讲是要收一根小阳线的好吧
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55
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00:01:46,160 --> 00:01:48,760
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那么他收一根小阳线
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56
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00:01:48,760 --> 00:01:51,980
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那明天肯定你买买阴不买阳嘛
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57
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00:01:51,980 --> 00:01:54,240
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但整体来讲就OK了
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58
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00:01:54,240 --> 00:01:55,780
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就差不多了
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59
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00:01:55,780 --> 00:01:56,040
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好吧
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60
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00:01:56,040 --> 00:01:57,900
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我觉得时间来讲也是一样的
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61
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00:01:57,920 --> 00:02:01,580
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差不多空间也也刚好再往下跌
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62
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00:02:01,580 --> 00:02:02,200
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说实话
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63
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00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:04,640
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整体整体不会看那么大了
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64
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00:02:04,640 --> 00:02:07,780
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因为今天整个行情大家其实有点看不明白
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65
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00:02:07,780 --> 00:02:08,740
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对吧
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66
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00:02:08,740 --> 00:02:11,060
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看不明白给各位看一张图
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67
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00:02:11,060 --> 00:02:17,320
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这个是情绪周期的这个东西前几个月还跟大家说过
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68
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00:02:17,320 --> 00:02:23,060
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因为还没有到整体整体开始讲情绪周期的时候对吧
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69
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00:02:23,060 --> 00:02:26,160
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但你看了之后就差不多就能明白情绪周期
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70
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00:02:26,160 --> 00:02:27,500
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我们一共分四个阶段
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71
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00:02:27,500 --> 00:02:27,900
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第一阶段是情绪周期
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72
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00:02:27,900 --> 00:02:29,240
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第二阶段是情绪反抽期
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73
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00:02:29,240 --> 00:02:31,600
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第二阶段是资金建仓期
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74
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00:02:31,600 --> 00:02:33,520
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第三阶段是祖身期
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75
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00:02:33,520 --> 00:02:36,020
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祖身期里面我们又分四个小阶段
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76
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00:02:36,020 --> 00:02:39,160
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第一个小阶段是人气的形成的一个初期
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77
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00:02:39,160 --> 00:02:41,200
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第二小阶段是人气亢奋期
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78
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00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:42,540
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第三小阶段成熟期
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79
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00:02:42,540 --> 00:02:44,860
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然后第四小阶段是衰退阶段
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80
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00:02:44,860 --> 00:02:46,860
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整个第四阶段呢
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81
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00:02:46,860 --> 00:02:49,600
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就情绪周期的第四个阶段是退烧期
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82
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00:02:49,600 --> 00:02:52,180
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所以一共有四个周期四大周期
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83
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00:02:52,180 --> 00:02:56,540
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那我们如果从情绪周期的角度来看的话
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84
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00:02:56,540 --> 00:02:56,620
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其实对于今天整个很重要的一阶段是什么呢
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85
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00:02:56,620 --> 00:02:56,640
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其实对于今天整个很重要的一阶段是
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86
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00:02:56,640 --> 00:03:00,220
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其实对于今天整个行情就会比较明了了
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87
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00:03:00,220 --> 00:03:02,540
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因为我们目前是处于情绪反抽期
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88
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00:03:02,540 --> 00:03:03,560
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也就是第一阶段
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89
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00:03:03,560 --> 00:03:05,820
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第一阶段的特征呢
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90
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00:03:05,820 --> 00:03:08,300
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就是前期的老腰股指跌反抽
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91
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00:03:08,300 --> 00:03:10,920
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所以我们可以看到
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92
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00:03:10,920 --> 00:03:15,700
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前段时间的MLCC的那个票涨得比较好
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93
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00:03:15,700 --> 00:03:15,960
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对吧
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94
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00:03:15,960 --> 00:03:16,720
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包括今天
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95
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00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:20,860
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我们也看到有一些商业航天出来了
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96
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00:03:20,860 --> 00:03:23,620
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包括说AI应用那边的票
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97
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00:03:23,620 --> 00:03:25,300
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整体走的都还不错
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98
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00:03:25,300 --> 00:03:25,540
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对吧
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99
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00:03:25,540 --> 00:03:25,840
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今天
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100
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00:03:25,840 --> 00:03:26,620
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因为今天是上个月
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101
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00:03:26,620 --> 00:03:27,920
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今天有个票是炸了嘛
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102
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00:03:27,920 --> 00:03:28,960
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炸了之后
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103
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00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:29,800
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NEO这边
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104
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00:03:29,800 --> 00:03:31,180
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它是板上了
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105
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00:03:31,180 --> 00:03:33,800
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这个也是属于之前的一个老腰股的
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106
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00:03:33,800 --> 00:03:35,000
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之前的一个老腰股
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107
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00:03:35,000 --> 00:03:37,680
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所以从本质上来讲呢
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108
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00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:39,300
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是处于一个情绪反抽期
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109
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00:03:39,300 --> 00:03:41,700
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然后这些老腰反抽
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110
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00:03:41,700 --> 00:03:43,560
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它的整体高度不会很高的
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111
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00:03:43,560 --> 00:03:45,080
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所以你们一直在问M
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112
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00:03:45,080 --> 00:03:45,480
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对吧
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113
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00:03:45,480 --> 00:03:46,840
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MLCC走这么强
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114
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00:03:46,840 --> 00:03:48,980
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它是不是可以
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115
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00:03:48,980 --> 00:03:51,300
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后面有行情的话
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116
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00:03:51,300 --> 00:03:52,100
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它会继续更强
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117
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00:03:52,100 --> 00:03:53,020
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不一定的
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118
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00:03:53,020 --> 00:03:55,180
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它后面哪怕是会走
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119
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00:03:55,180 --> 00:03:56,600
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也不一定会真的有走得比较好
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120
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00:03:56,620 --> 00:03:58,520
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它会在主线行情走出来之后强
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121
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00:03:58,520 --> 00:04:00,640
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我们后面肯定还是要去看主线行情
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122
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00:04:00,640 --> 00:04:03,080
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但是离情绪反抽期到主线的一个行程
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123
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00:04:03,080 --> 00:04:04,960
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它会有一段的时间
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124
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00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:05,320
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好吧
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125
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00:04:05,320 --> 00:04:05,980
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快的话
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126
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00:04:05,980 --> 00:04:06,940
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可能一两周
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127
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00:04:06,940 --> 00:04:07,780
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慢的话
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128
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00:04:07,780 --> 00:04:11,200
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可能这边稍微等的时间比较久了
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129
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00:04:11,200 --> 00:04:14,200
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但我今天想想跟各位聊的呢
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130
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00:04:14,200 --> 00:04:15,940
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就是CPU这边
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131
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00:04:15,940 --> 00:04:19,480
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像今天的部分的光走的还不错
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132
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00:04:19,480 --> 00:04:20,140
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对吧
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133
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00:04:20,140 --> 00:04:21,120
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因为有一些
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134
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00:04:21,120 --> 00:04:23,620
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我们如果看这个池子的话
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135
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00:04:23,620 --> 00:04:26,600
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能够看到有前面的这些光
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136
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00:04:26,620 --> 00:04:29,380
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因为有一些走的还不错
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137
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00:04:29,380 --> 00:04:30,360
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包括这边
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138
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00:04:30,360 --> 00:04:33,240
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这边少记了一个彭东光
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139
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00:04:33,240 --> 00:04:34,880
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少记一个北交所的
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|
140
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00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:36,720
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这个今天也不错
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141
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00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:38,420
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没有让各位买的意思
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|
142
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00:04:38,420 --> 00:04:39,480
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就是我说
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143
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00:04:39,480 --> 00:04:41,020
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因为为什么呢
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|
144
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00:04:41,020 --> 00:04:42,220
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因为光通信这边
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|
145
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00:04:42,220 --> 00:04:46,360
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它出了一个还行的利好
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|
146
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00:04:46,360 --> 00:04:48,160
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因为Rubin Ultra
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|
147
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00:04:48,160 --> 00:04:50,300
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就是因为它下一代的
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|
148
|
00:04:50,300 --> 00:04:51,260
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就Rubin嘛
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|
149
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00:04:51,260 --> 00:04:52,220
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它原先是
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150
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00:04:52,220 --> 00:04:55,140
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Rubin Ultra是384级别
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|
151
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00:04:55,140 --> 00:04:56,600
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然后现在是
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152
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00:04:56,620 --> 00:04:59,240
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缩减到了192级别
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|
153
|
00:04:59,240 --> 00:05:01,140
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为什么要这个样子缩呢
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|
154
|
00:05:01,140 --> 00:05:02,740
|
有两个原因
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|
155
|
00:05:02,740 --> 00:05:06,220
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一个是因为HBM供应紧张
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|
156
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00:05:06,220 --> 00:05:06,940
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价格上涨
|
|
157
|
00:05:06,940 --> 00:05:08,520
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另一个原因呢
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|
158
|
00:05:08,520 --> 00:05:10,060
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是因为电力瓶颈
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|
159
|
00:05:10,060 --> 00:05:13,260
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所以它们整个规格是变小的
|
|
160
|
00:05:13,260 --> 00:05:16,060
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规格变小之后
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|
161
|
00:05:16,060 --> 00:05:19,340
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那么就会影响到HBM的放量
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|
162
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00:05:19,340 --> 00:05:20,380
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对吧
|
|
163
|
00:05:20,380 --> 00:05:22,800
|
它的整个增长是放缓了的
|
|
164
|
00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:26,080
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但是对于网络的投入
|
|
165
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00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:27,060
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它会上升
|
|
166
|
00:05:27,060 --> 00:05:29,940
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也就是光互联NVSwitch
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|
167
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00:05:29,940 --> 00:05:32,720
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这些网络的用量会提高
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|
168
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00:05:32,720 --> 00:05:34,000
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因为之前的话
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|
169
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00:05:34,000 --> 00:05:38,100
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整体HBM占比占整个结构
|
|
170
|
00:05:38,100 --> 00:05:39,660
|
大概是40%
|
|
171
|
00:05:39,660 --> 00:05:44,660
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然后从328G降到198G之后
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|
172
|
00:05:44,660 --> 00:05:46,000
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384G
|
|
173
|
00:05:46,000 --> 00:05:48,620
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然后降到192G之后
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|
174
|
00:05:48,620 --> 00:05:50,920
|
它的HBM的占的总成本
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|
175
|
00:05:50,920 --> 00:05:52,860
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大概要缩到28%
|
|
176
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00:05:52,860 --> 00:05:54,240
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就缩12%左右
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|
177
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00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:56,040
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然后网络
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|
178
|
00:05:56,080 --> 00:05:57,260
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这一块的配比
|
|
179
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00:05:57,260 --> 00:05:58,300
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就要提高
|
|
180
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00:05:58,300 --> 00:06:00,280
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从4%提高到12%
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|
181
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00:06:00,280 --> 00:06:03,620
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所以今天光整体走得还不错
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|
182
|
00:06:03,620 --> 00:06:04,820
|
它是有利好的
|
|
183
|
00:06:04,820 --> 00:06:06,760
|
也就是说
|
|
184
|
00:06:06,760 --> 00:06:10,200
|
目前的市场没有乱潮
|
|
185
|
00:06:10,200 --> 00:06:12,280
|
就是没有出现问题
|
|
186
|
00:06:12,280 --> 00:06:12,920
|
就是说
|
|
187
|
00:06:12,920 --> 00:06:15,680
|
哪怕是它有利好
|
|
188
|
00:06:15,680 --> 00:06:16,900
|
是正常你要去涨
|
|
189
|
00:06:16,900 --> 00:06:19,040
|
包括之前的MSCC
|
|
190
|
00:06:19,040 --> 00:06:20,460
|
也是因为涨价
|
|
191
|
00:06:20,460 --> 00:06:22,200
|
所以才往上去涨
|
|
192
|
00:06:22,200 --> 00:06:23,680
|
也就是说
|
|
193
|
00:06:23,680 --> 00:06:24,700
|
现在的东西
|
|
194
|
00:06:24,700 --> 00:06:25,880
|
它并不是说
|
|
195
|
00:06:25,880 --> 00:06:27,720
|
没有根源的市场
|
|
196
|
00:06:27,720 --> 00:06:29,780
|
不讲道理的胡乱的砸
|
|
197
|
00:06:29,780 --> 00:06:31,340
|
它都是有原因的
|
|
198
|
00:06:31,340 --> 00:06:34,180
|
为什么韩国那边会砸
|
|
199
|
00:06:34,180 --> 00:06:38,080
|
因为HBM的用量变少了
|
|
200
|
00:06:38,080 --> 00:06:39,760
|
所以存储整体沉压
|
|
201
|
00:06:39,760 --> 00:06:42,200
|
这是整体的原因
|
|
202
|
00:06:42,200 --> 00:06:44,740
|
那么HBM这边一旦沉压之后
|
|
203
|
00:06:44,740 --> 00:06:47,040
|
对于半导体设备
|
|
204
|
00:06:47,040 --> 00:06:48,360
|
然后我们这边的
|
|
205
|
00:06:48,360 --> 00:06:50,080
|
这种存储芯片
|
|
206
|
00:06:50,080 --> 00:06:50,320
|
对吧
|
|
207
|
00:06:50,320 --> 00:06:51,320
|
就更不用说了
|
|
208
|
00:06:51,320 --> 00:06:53,360
|
那么他们基本上也都是
|
|
209
|
00:06:53,360 --> 00:06:54,960
|
本来就不是很正宗的
|
|
210
|
00:06:54,960 --> 00:06:55,580
|
然后
|
|
211
|
00:06:55,880 --> 00:06:56,840
|
那边一跌
|
|
212
|
00:06:56,840 --> 00:06:59,260
|
那么我们这边自然也跟着跌
|
|
213
|
00:06:59,260 --> 00:07:02,260
|
然后之前因为半导体涨了
|
|
214
|
00:07:02,260 --> 00:07:05,860
|
因为半导体是最后一轮去涨的
|
|
215
|
00:07:05,860 --> 00:07:07,100
|
所以它跌的时候
|
|
216
|
00:07:07,100 --> 00:07:09,000
|
也是最后一轮跌的
|
|
217
|
00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:10,800
|
然后在上一周
|
|
218
|
00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:13,040
|
光这边是完成了补跌
|
|
219
|
00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:16,040
|
然后今天半导体那边是进行补跌
|
|
220
|
00:07:16,040 --> 00:07:18,480
|
像一些市值比较大的
|
|
221
|
00:07:18,480 --> 00:07:18,740
|
对吧
|
|
222
|
00:07:18,740 --> 00:07:19,820
|
它跌的还是比较狠
|
|
223
|
00:07:19,820 --> 00:07:20,600
|
像中威公司
|
|
224
|
00:07:20,600 --> 00:07:22,800
|
包括华清科这种东西
|
|
225
|
00:07:22,800 --> 00:07:23,660
|
整体来讲
|
|
226
|
00:07:23,660 --> 00:07:25,860
|
跌的还是比较厉害的
|
|
227
|
00:07:25,880 --> 00:07:26,980
|
然后这些呢
|
|
228
|
00:07:26,980 --> 00:07:29,980
|
占科创50的权重又比较高
|
|
229
|
00:07:29,980 --> 00:07:33,480
|
所以以至于整个科创版
|
|
230
|
00:07:33,480 --> 00:07:34,680
|
科创50
|
|
231
|
00:07:34,680 --> 00:07:36,800
|
科创半导体设备ETF
|
|
232
|
00:07:36,800 --> 00:07:38,940
|
今天表现很
|
|
233
|
00:07:38,940 --> 00:07:39,920
|
很惨
|
|
234
|
00:07:39,920 --> 00:07:42,860
|
但是这最后一个板块也跌
|
|
235
|
00:07:42,860 --> 00:07:43,120
|
对吧
|
|
236
|
00:07:43,120 --> 00:07:44,260
|
我们之前超节点
|
|
237
|
00:07:44,260 --> 00:07:45,140
|
什么算力
|
|
238
|
00:07:45,140 --> 00:07:46,040
|
国产算力
|
|
239
|
00:07:46,040 --> 00:07:47,280
|
这些东西也都跌过了
|
|
240
|
00:07:47,280 --> 00:07:48,920
|
那么这些东西
|
|
241
|
00:07:48,920 --> 00:07:50,420
|
这两天的一个下跌
|
|
242
|
00:07:50,420 --> 00:07:51,660
|
我认为差不多了
|
|
243
|
00:07:51,660 --> 00:07:52,280
|
好吧
|
|
244
|
00:07:52,280 --> 00:07:53,440
|
时候也差不多了
|
|
245
|
00:07:53,440 --> 00:07:54,800
|
从时间上来讲
|
|
246
|
00:07:54,800 --> 00:07:55,840
|
从空间上来讲
|
|
247
|
00:07:55,880 --> 00:07:58,180
|
基本上也都也都快到位了
|
|
248
|
00:07:58,180 --> 00:07:59,980
|
基本上再跌
|
|
249
|
00:07:59,980 --> 00:08:01,300
|
再调整个
|
|
250
|
00:08:01,300 --> 00:08:03,760
|
三三四天左右
|
|
251
|
00:08:03,760 --> 00:08:05,100
|
我觉得就差不多了
|
|
252
|
00:08:05,100 --> 00:08:05,700
|
就到位了
|
|
253
|
00:08:05,700 --> 00:08:07,060
|
如果能够那样调的话
|
|
254
|
00:08:07,060 --> 00:08:08,160
|
我觉得是比较好的
|
|
255
|
00:08:08,160 --> 00:08:10,100
|
因为它整个完整的形态
|
|
256
|
00:08:10,100 --> 00:08:10,980
|
也能走出来
|
|
257
|
00:08:10,980 --> 00:08:12,960
|
所以科创这边
|
|
258
|
00:08:12,960 --> 00:08:14,760
|
虽然说它创新低了
|
|
259
|
00:08:14,760 --> 00:08:16,520
|
但是整体走了一个背离
|
|
260
|
00:08:16,520 --> 00:08:17,060
|
好吧
|
|
261
|
00:08:17,060 --> 00:08:18,160
|
这种背离走出来
|
|
262
|
00:08:18,160 --> 00:08:21,160
|
反而是对于后面的行情会更好的
|
|
263
|
00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:22,640
|
那么美中不足的
|
|
264
|
00:08:22,640 --> 00:08:24,520
|
就是上证这边没有踩地
|
|
265
|
00:08:24,520 --> 00:08:25,560
|
而这条没有砸下来
|
|
266
|
00:08:25,880 --> 00:08:28,960
|
那我估计国家队也不太想
|
|
267
|
00:08:28,960 --> 00:08:30,480
|
就是让上证这边下来
|
|
268
|
00:08:30,480 --> 00:08:32,280
|
如果不想让上证这边下来
|
|
269
|
00:08:32,280 --> 00:08:33,560
|
也无所谓好吧
|
|
270
|
00:08:33,560 --> 00:08:36,120
|
本身它能够横住也都ok了
|
|
271
|
00:08:36,120 --> 00:08:37,920
|
这个没有什么关系
|
|
272
|
00:08:37,920 --> 00:08:40,480
|
因此我们再回过头来看
|
|
273
|
00:08:40,480 --> 00:08:42,000
|
对吧
|
|
274
|
00:08:42,000 --> 00:08:45,080
|
我们重点就是后面
|
|
275
|
00:08:45,080 --> 00:08:46,100
|
包括说
|
|
276
|
00:08:46,100 --> 00:08:50,460
|
因为光这边光通信这边是有利好的
|
|
277
|
00:08:50,460 --> 00:08:53,780
|
所以它这两天可能会有表现
|
|
278
|
00:08:53,780 --> 00:08:55,840
|
如果说明天收一根阳线
|
|
279
|
00:08:55,880 --> 00:09:00,240
|
那么这些光是有可能会表现的
|
|
280
|
00:09:00,240 --> 00:09:04,320
|
但是我认为它整体一个幅度不会很大
|
|
281
|
00:09:04,320 --> 00:09:07,400
|
基本上也就1000就差不多了好吧
|
|
282
|
00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:11,240
|
我觉得这一波它整体反弹也就差不多了
|
|
283
|
00:09:11,240 --> 00:09:12,780
|
然后后面它再慢慢上
|
|
284
|
00:09:12,780 --> 00:09:13,800
|
后面再慢慢上
|
|
285
|
00:09:13,800 --> 00:09:16,360
|
因为等整体的一个结构起稳
|
|
286
|
00:09:16,360 --> 00:09:16,880
|
好吧
|
|
287
|
00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:19,680
|
在这边不能说就把它看作是
|
|
288
|
00:09:19,680 --> 00:09:21,220
|
多么牛的一个行情了
|
|
289
|
00:09:21,220 --> 00:09:23,020
|
因为主线行情目前还没有出来
|
|
290
|
00:09:23,020 --> 00:09:24,800
|
AI应用机器人
|
|
291
|
00:09:24,800 --> 00:09:25,840
|
包括商业航天人
|
|
292
|
00:09:25,840 --> 00:09:27,380
|
对吧
|
|
293
|
00:09:27,380 --> 00:09:29,940
|
硬科技这些都是想要去表现
|
|
294
|
00:09:29,940 --> 00:09:34,800
|
都想要去做下一个阶段的一个主线
|
|
295
|
00:09:34,800 --> 00:09:36,840
|
但是没有那么容易
|
|
296
|
00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:38,120
|
谁能走出来了
|
|
297
|
00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:39,160
|
我们进一步观察
|
|
298
|
00:09:39,160 --> 00:09:42,480
|
目前来讲的话最有可能是AI应用和
|
|
299
|
00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:45,040
|
还是和半导体相关的好吧
|
|
300
|
00:09:45,040 --> 00:09:46,320
|
但大家也知道
|
|
301
|
00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:49,140
|
因为AI应用我们这边确实不太行
|
|
302
|
00:09:49,140 --> 00:09:50,680
|
正宗的在港股
|
|
303
|
00:09:50,680 --> 00:09:54,000
|
昨天跟各位说了一个港股的票
|
|
304
|
00:09:54,000 --> 00:09:55,800
|
那个票涨的有点开了
|
|
305
|
00:09:55,840 --> 00:09:57,380
|
开盘都开的特别猛
|
|
306
|
00:09:57,380 --> 00:09:58,920
|
我也
|
|
307
|
00:09:58,920 --> 00:10:00,700
|
我也没办法说了好吧
|
|
308
|
00:10:00,700 --> 00:10:03,000
|
这种东西我有还是不提了
|
|
309
|
00:10:03,000 --> 00:10:04,540
|
提出去就
|
|
310
|
00:10:04,540 --> 00:10:05,560
|
就长成那个样子
|
|
311
|
00:10:05,560 --> 00:10:06,600
|
很恶心
|
|
312
|
00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:08,120
|
所以我们
|
|
313
|
00:10:08,120 --> 00:10:09,920
|
就继续去
|
|
314
|
00:10:09,920 --> 00:10:10,940
|
观察就好了
|
|
315
|
00:10:10,940 --> 00:10:12,480
|
谁能走出来
|
|
316
|
00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:13,500
|
不知道
|
|
317
|
00:10:13,500 --> 00:10:14,780
|
等走出来之后
|
|
318
|
00:10:14,780 --> 00:10:16,840
|
因为主线行情它一定是走出来
|
|
319
|
00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:17,860
|
走出来我们知道
|
|
320
|
00:10:17,860 --> 00:10:18,880
|
看到它成
|
|
321
|
00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:19,900
|
成为主线行情的时候
|
|
322
|
00:10:19,900 --> 00:10:21,180
|
它一定已经是
|
|
323
|
00:10:21,180 --> 00:10:22,200
|
涨了一
|
|
324
|
00:10:22,200 --> 00:10:23,480
|
一段了
|
|
325
|
00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:24,760
|
就是这些
|
|
326
|
00:10:24,760 --> 00:10:25,800
|
我们目前
|
|
327
|
00:10:25,800 --> 00:10:27,080
|
所有的
|
|
328
|
00:10:27,080 --> 00:10:29,380
|
包括说AI硬科技
|
|
329
|
00:10:29,380 --> 00:10:31,440
|
AI应用
|
|
330
|
00:10:31,440 --> 00:10:34,500
|
商业航天机器人这些东西全都属于
|
|
331
|
00:10:34,500 --> 00:10:35,520
|
超跌反弹
|
|
332
|
00:10:35,520 --> 00:10:38,080
|
只不过AI应用它跌的是
|
|
333
|
00:10:38,080 --> 00:10:39,880
|
时间是比较久的对吧
|
|
334
|
00:10:39,880 --> 00:10:40,900
|
它整体
|
|
335
|
00:10:40,900 --> 00:10:43,460
|
筹码结构出新的也比较完整
|
|
336
|
00:10:43,460 --> 00:10:45,260
|
那么周五
|
|
337
|
00:10:45,260 --> 00:10:47,820
|
资金流向了最没有
|
|
338
|
00:10:47,820 --> 00:10:49,600
|
阻力的一个位置
|
|
339
|
00:10:49,600 --> 00:10:52,420
|
包括说这边应该是有一些人
|
|
340
|
00:10:52,420 --> 00:10:53,440
|
想要去做出
|
|
341
|
00:10:53,440 --> 00:10:54,480
|
东西来的
|
|
342
|
00:10:54,480 --> 00:10:55,760
|
所以他们整个
|
|
343
|
00:10:55,760 --> 00:10:58,320
|
最近吹得非常厉害对吧
|
|
344
|
00:10:58,320 --> 00:11:00,360
|
一些卖方这边的
|
|
345
|
00:11:00,360 --> 00:11:01,640
|
资料发的也特别
|
|
346
|
00:11:01,640 --> 00:11:02,420
|
特别多
|
|
347
|
00:11:02,420 --> 00:11:05,240
|
那么说明他们是想要做出点动作
|
|
348
|
00:11:05,240 --> 00:11:07,280
|
那么再配合到
|
|
349
|
00:11:07,280 --> 00:11:08,820
|
一些实际的
|
|
350
|
00:11:08,820 --> 00:11:11,120
|
因素例如DeepSeek那边
|
|
351
|
00:11:11,120 --> 00:11:13,160
|
降价包括OpenAI降价
|
|
352
|
00:11:13,160 --> 00:11:17,260
|
然后最大的呢其实就是腾讯那边的
|
|
353
|
00:11:17,260 --> 00:11:20,340
|
那个AI智能体WorkBuddy
|
|
354
|
00:11:20,340 --> 00:11:22,380
|
那么这个东西
|
|
355
|
00:11:22,380 --> 00:11:25,720
|
甚至后面是有可能会
|
|
356
|
00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:28,320
|
被统一部署到
|
|
357
|
00:11:28,320 --> 00:11:29,340
|
央国企的
|
|
358
|
00:11:29,340 --> 00:11:30,880
|
以及政府单位当中
|
|
359
|
00:11:30,880 --> 00:11:32,920
|
所以后面的催化
|
|
360
|
00:11:32,920 --> 00:11:33,700
|
有
|
|
361
|
00:11:33,700 --> 00:11:34,980
|
故事也有
|
|
362
|
00:11:34,980 --> 00:11:38,300
|
AI的业绩也都能够给你挖掘到
|
|
363
|
00:11:38,300 --> 00:11:39,580
|
也都能够实现
|
|
364
|
00:11:39,580 --> 00:11:40,600
|
但是
|
|
365
|
00:11:40,600 --> 00:11:42,660
|
它能不能走出来
|
|
366
|
00:11:42,660 --> 00:11:44,960
|
需要整体资金的一个共识
|
|
367
|
00:11:44,960 --> 00:11:46,760
|
好吧因此我们在这段
|
|
368
|
00:11:46,760 --> 00:11:48,040
|
这段时间内呢
|
|
369
|
00:11:48,040 --> 00:11:50,080
|
还是不要追高
|
|
370
|
00:11:50,080 --> 00:11:51,360
|
对啊不要追高
|
|
371
|
00:11:51,360 --> 00:11:54,180
|
慢慢的去把科技的仓位打上去
|
|
372
|
00:11:54,180 --> 00:11:55,720
|
因为这些东西都超级反弹
|
|
373
|
00:11:55,760 --> 00:11:57,040
|
只要谈
|
|
374
|
00:11:57,040 --> 00:11:59,340
|
科创50谈
|
|
375
|
00:11:59,340 --> 00:12:00,880
|
不管那些半导体也好
|
|
376
|
00:12:00,880 --> 00:12:02,160
|
AI硬件也好
|
|
377
|
00:12:02,160 --> 00:12:03,440
|
光PCB这些东西
|
|
378
|
00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:05,740
|
他们都会有表现
|
|
379
|
00:12:05,740 --> 00:12:07,540
|
整个创业板
|
|
380
|
00:12:07,540 --> 00:12:09,840
|
上涨这些科技股也都会有表现
|
|
381
|
00:12:09,840 --> 00:12:11,380
|
甚至那些AI应用对吧
|
|
382
|
00:12:11,380 --> 00:12:13,160
|
他们也都会有表现
|
|
383
|
00:12:13,160 --> 00:12:15,220
|
我们整体把仓位推上去
|
|
384
|
00:12:15,220 --> 00:12:17,520
|
配置选手呢就把仓位推上去
|
|
385
|
00:12:17,520 --> 00:12:21,100
|
去做ETF这些东西没有什么问题
|
|
386
|
00:12:21,100 --> 00:12:23,400
|
该吃到都能吃到
|
|
387
|
00:12:23,400 --> 00:12:24,680
|
至于说
|
|
388
|
00:12:24,680 --> 00:12:25,720
|
我们去做
|
|
389
|
00:12:25,720 --> 00:12:27,760
|
组生期的时候
|
|
390
|
00:12:27,760 --> 00:12:28,280
|
对吧
|
|
391
|
00:12:28,280 --> 00:12:30,580
|
那得等他们资金杀出来之后
|
|
392
|
00:12:30,580 --> 00:12:31,600
|
我们再去做选择
|
|
393
|
00:12:31,600 --> 00:12:33,920
|
这是那些主力资金要做的事情
|
|
394
|
00:12:33,920 --> 00:12:35,440
|
对吧他们去
|
|
395
|
00:12:35,440 --> 00:12:37,240
|
杀出一条血路来
|
|
396
|
00:12:37,240 --> 00:12:38,780
|
然后我们跟着后
|
|
397
|
00:12:38,780 --> 00:12:40,560
|
跟在后面吃肉就行了
|
|
398
|
00:12:40,560 --> 00:12:41,600
|
就这么简单
|
|
399
|
00:12:41,600 --> 00:12:43,640
|
现阶段不要去赌方向
|
|
400
|
00:12:43,640 --> 00:12:45,180
|
有能力做港股的人
|
|
401
|
00:12:45,180 --> 00:12:46,720
|
去做港股的相关的配置
|
|
402
|
00:12:46,720 --> 00:12:48,240
|
好吧
|
|
403
|
00:12:48,240 --> 00:12:50,800
|
这个都没有什么问题
|
|
404
|
00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:51,840
|
嗯
|
|
405
|
00:12:51,840 --> 00:12:54,640
|
昨天跟各位讲了8月份的一个宏观
|
|
406
|
00:12:54,640 --> 00:12:55,680
|
感觉是不是有点
|
|
407
|
00:12:55,680 --> 00:12:57,720
|
把大家吓到了对吧
|
|
408
|
00:12:57,720 --> 00:13:00,540
|
其实不用太过于悲观
|
|
409
|
00:13:00,540 --> 00:13:01,060
|
好吧
|
|
410
|
00:13:01,060 --> 00:13:04,120
|
这些数据并不一定非得要往
|
|
411
|
00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:05,400
|
不好的方向走
|
|
412
|
00:13:05,400 --> 00:13:08,480
|
它是有可能会往好的方向走的
|
|
413
|
00:13:08,480 --> 00:13:11,800
|
所以不用太过于非得就说这种时候
|
|
414
|
00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:13,340
|
就要出现利空了
|
|
415
|
00:13:13,340 --> 00:13:16,680
|
我们其实上周五的上涨也是因为
|
|
416
|
00:13:16,680 --> 00:13:19,240
|
出现的是利好的消息对不对
|
|
417
|
00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:20,520
|
不是出现利空的嘛
|
|
418
|
00:13:20,520 --> 00:13:22,040
|
所以是出现利好的
|
|
419
|
00:13:22,040 --> 00:13:23,840
|
所以我们也不用太过于悲观
|
|
420
|
00:13:23,840 --> 00:13:25,380
|
照说整个8月份
|
|
421
|
00:13:25,380 --> 00:13:27,180
|
就让他们慢慢磨底嘛
|
|
422
|
00:13:27,180 --> 00:13:28,960
|
这个底磨的时间越长
|
|
423
|
00:13:28,960 --> 00:13:31,020
|
也就代表着后面
|
|
424
|
00:13:31,020 --> 00:13:34,080
|
金九银十的整个行情会长得越顺畅
|
|
425
|
00:13:34,080 --> 00:13:34,600
|
好吧
|
|
426
|
00:13:34,600 --> 00:13:35,620
|
我们整体就
|
|
427
|
00:13:35,620 --> 00:13:37,420
|
我觉得在这种位置
|
|
428
|
00:13:37,420 --> 00:13:40,220
|
没有必要去悲观了
|
|
429
|
00:13:40,220 --> 00:13:41,260
|
好吧
|
|
430
|
00:13:41,260 --> 00:13:43,560
|
这种位置真的没有必要去悲观
|
|
431
|
00:13:43,560 --> 00:13:44,840
|
该怎么做怎么做
|
|
432
|
00:13:44,840 --> 00:13:46,120
|
等出现了
|
|
433
|
00:13:46,120 --> 00:13:48,160
|
我们想象当中的主线行情的时候
|
|
434
|
00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:50,460
|
到时候去积极参与就好了
|
|
435
|
00:13:50,460 --> 00:13:52,260
|
现阶段呢就是
|
|
436
|
00:13:52,260 --> 00:13:55,340
|
尽量不要去追涨杀跌好吧
|
|
437
|
00:13:55,340 --> 00:13:56,620
|
不要去追涨杀跌
|
|
438
|
00:13:56,620 --> 00:13:58,920
|
不要被大资金牵着鼻子走
|
|
439
|
00:13:58,920 --> 00:14:01,480
|
因为现阶段从情绪周期上来讲
|
|
440
|
00:14:01,480 --> 00:14:03,280
|
是很难的
|
|
441
|
00:14:03,280 --> 00:14:04,560
|
我承认这
|
|
442
|
00:14:04,560 --> 00:14:05,320
|
我承认
|
|
443
|
00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:06,860
|
除了主升期
|
|
444
|
00:14:06,860 --> 00:14:08,400
|
主升期的
|
|
445
|
00:14:08,400 --> 00:14:12,240
|
人气亢奋期和成熟阶段相对来讲好做之外
|
|
446
|
00:14:12,240 --> 00:14:14,800
|
其他的这些所有的节点都不好做
|
|
447
|
00:14:14,800 --> 00:14:16,580
|
都很难做
|
|
448
|
00:14:16,580 --> 00:14:18,120
|
所以对于
|
|
449
|
00:14:18,120 --> 00:14:20,180
|
散户来讲其实
|
|
450
|
00:14:20,180 --> 00:14:23,760
|
你在做票的很大程度上其实都是在等
|
|
451
|
00:14:23,760 --> 00:14:24,780
|
在慢慢的等
|
|
452
|
00:14:24,780 --> 00:14:25,800
|
在熬时间
|
|
453
|
00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:30,160
|
正儿八经可以做行情的时候其实很少
|
|
454
|
00:14:30,160 --> 00:14:32,200
|
对吧所以我们整体还是要等
|
|
455
|
00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:34,260
|
包括到了资金建仓期
|
|
456
|
00:14:34,260 --> 00:14:38,340
|
这边整体的仓位甚至是要比情绪反抽期要更少的
|
|
457
|
00:14:38,340 --> 00:14:41,420
|
因为情绪反抽我们还能去做一个
|
|
458
|
00:14:41,420 --> 00:14:42,700
|
超跌反弹
|
|
459
|
00:14:42,700 --> 00:14:44,240
|
包括说我们
|
|
460
|
00:14:44,240 --> 00:14:47,560
|
这整个7月份哪怕是白酒医药
|
|
461
|
00:14:47,560 --> 00:14:51,400
|
消费对吧那些东西他们其实本质上也都是超跌反弹
|
|
462
|
00:14:51,400 --> 00:14:54,740
|
就是大量的整个超跌股呢同步上的
|
|
463
|
00:14:54,740 --> 00:14:58,840
|
只不过他会在不同的板块之间去进行一个表现
|
|
464
|
00:14:58,840 --> 00:15:01,660
|
但是在整体上涨三五天之后
|
|
465
|
00:15:01,660 --> 00:15:03,180
|
就会陆续的分化
|
|
466
|
00:15:03,180 --> 00:15:04,980
|
纯粹依赖那种
|
|
467
|
00:15:04,980 --> 00:15:09,080
|
超跌的品种呢他会回落的比较快一点
|
|
468
|
00:15:09,080 --> 00:15:11,120
|
具备产业逻辑
|
|
469
|
00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:12,400
|
业绩支撑
|
|
470
|
00:15:12,400 --> 00:15:12,920
|
与
|
|
471
|
00:15:12,920 --> 00:15:15,480
|
资金承接方向的他会走出第二波
|
|
472
|
00:15:15,480 --> 00:15:17,780
|
那么这种第二波
|
|
473
|
00:15:17,780 --> 00:15:19,320
|
他就是主线了
|
|
474
|
00:15:19,320 --> 00:15:21,880
|
所以我们在反弹初期
|
|
475
|
00:15:21,880 --> 00:15:23,920
|
没有必要去
|
|
476
|
00:15:23,920 --> 00:15:24,700
|
找对吧
|
|
477
|
00:15:24,700 --> 00:15:27,000
|
谁会是主线
|
|
478
|
00:15:27,000 --> 00:15:28,020
|
因为第
|
|
479
|
00:15:28,020 --> 00:15:29,300
|
因为
|
|
480
|
00:15:29,300 --> 00:15:33,140
|
我们在第1波反弹的时候他解决的就是
|
|
481
|
00:15:33,140 --> 00:15:34,420
|
情绪修复
|
|
482
|
00:15:34,420 --> 00:15:38,780
|
你到了第2波才会去定产业方向和龙头归属
|
|
483
|
00:15:38,780 --> 00:15:41,600
|
所以我们今天也能够看到一些
|
|
484
|
00:15:41,600 --> 00:15:44,920
|
AI应用的方向对吧他们是出现了分歧的
|
|
485
|
00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:47,220
|
因为周五整体已经普涨了嘛
|
|
486
|
00:15:47,220 --> 00:15:48,760
|
整体板块已经高潮了
|
|
487
|
00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:50,300
|
那么他们出现分歧
|
|
488
|
00:15:50,300 --> 00:15:52,600
|
分歧之后的再加强
|
|
489
|
00:15:52,600 --> 00:15:54,660
|
他才能够确认
|
|
490
|
00:15:54,700 --> 00:15:56,740
|
这个方向是有的
|
|
491
|
00:15:56,740 --> 00:15:57,520
|
东西做
|
|
492
|
00:15:57,520 --> 00:15:59,300
|
你在第1天
|
|
493
|
00:15:59,300 --> 00:16:02,380
|
普涨的时候那一天你反而是没有什么可以做的
|
|
494
|
00:16:02,380 --> 00:16:05,200
|
你整体仓位你是推不上去的
|
|
495
|
00:16:05,200 --> 00:16:08,520
|
你只有他们在分歧结束之后再次
|
|
496
|
00:16:08,520 --> 00:16:10,060
|
转强的时候
|
|
497
|
00:16:10,060 --> 00:16:11,860
|
我们才能够对他
|
|
498
|
00:16:11,860 --> 00:16:12,880
|
高看一
|
|
499
|
00:16:12,880 --> 00:16:15,180
|
所以行情是走出来不是拆出来的
|
|
500
|
00:16:15,180 --> 00:16:15,940
|
好吧
|
|
501
|
00:16:15,940 --> 00:16:17,220
|
大家
|
|
502
|
00:16:17,220 --> 00:16:20,560
|
很多散户陷入了一个误区就是非得要找确定性
|
|
503
|
00:16:20,560 --> 00:16:21,840
|
没有确定性的
|
|
504
|
00:16:21,840 --> 00:16:24,400
|
等真出确定性的时候你又不敢去买了
|
|
505
|
00:16:24,400 --> 00:16:25,940
|
还是我说了一句话好吧
|
|
506
|
00:16:25,940 --> 00:16:28,500
|
做交易不要又贪又怂
|
|
507
|
00:16:28,500 --> 00:16:29,780
|
贪呢是因为
|
|
508
|
00:16:29,780 --> 00:16:31,060
|
主线涨出来了
|
|
509
|
00:16:31,060 --> 00:16:33,880
|
主线没涨出来你想买在最底部对吧
|
|
510
|
00:16:33,880 --> 00:16:36,180
|
那么怂呢是主线涨起来了
|
|
511
|
00:16:36,180 --> 00:16:38,220
|
然后你又不敢买了
|
|
512
|
00:16:38,220 --> 00:16:40,520
|
往往就错过了主线行情
|
|
513
|
00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:42,320
|
这是散户最大的一个问题
|
|
514
|
00:16:42,320 --> 00:16:45,140
|
但也是交易当中最反人性的事情
|
|
515
|
00:16:45,140 --> 00:16:47,700
|
这也是所有散户必须要卖过的坎
|
|
516
|
00:16:47,700 --> 00:16:50,520
|
好吧你不卖过这个坎呢
|
|
517
|
00:16:50,520 --> 00:16:53,320
|
自然你就享受不到主身了
|
|
518
|
00:16:53,320 --> 00:16:54,360
|
这是我今天想讲的
|
|
519
|
00:16:54,360 --> 00:16:55,380
|
想跟各位说的
|
|
520
|
00:16:55,380 --> 00:16:56,660
|
所以最近
|
|
521
|
00:16:56,660 --> 00:16:57,680
|
依旧
|
|
522
|
00:16:57,680 --> 00:16:58,960
|
大跌大买小跌小买
|
|
523
|
00:16:58,960 --> 00:17:00,500
|
但我认为不会有
|
|
524
|
00:17:00,500 --> 00:17:01,520
|
大跌出现了好吧
|
|
525
|
00:17:01,520 --> 00:17:03,580
|
除非出现特别的利空
|
|
526
|
00:17:03,580 --> 00:17:06,640
|
那么如果出现特别的利空
|
|
527
|
00:17:06,640 --> 00:17:10,240
|
那这种点位也是比较好加仓的位置
|
|
528
|
00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:13,300
|
因为如果是因为外部的干扰的话
|
|
529
|
00:17:13,300 --> 00:17:15,600
|
反而它反弹的力度会整体会大一点
|
|
530
|
00:17:15,600 --> 00:17:17,140
|
但我不太希望这种事情出现
|
|
531
|
00:17:17,140 --> 00:17:18,160
|
因为
|
|
532
|
00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:19,960
|
暴涨和暴跌
|
|
533
|
00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:24,060
|
都不利于整体行情的一个修复
|
|
534
|
00:17:24,060 --> 00:17:25,860
|
和它的发展
|
|
535
|
00:17:25,860 --> 00:17:27,140
|
所以我还是
|
|
536
|
00:17:27,140 --> 00:17:28,160
|
希望
|
|
537
|
00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:29,440
|
好好走向今天对吧
|
|
538
|
00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:31,220
|
这个科技走成这个样子
|
|
539
|
00:17:31,220 --> 00:17:33,540
|
涨跌加速这边4000多家红牌
|
|
540
|
00:17:33,540 --> 00:17:34,820
|
只有1000多家
|
|
541
|
00:17:34,820 --> 00:17:35,840
|
绿牌
|
|
542
|
00:17:35,840 --> 00:17:37,620
|
但你如果在科技里面对吧
|
|
543
|
00:17:37,620 --> 00:17:40,440
|
就相对来讲会难受点
|
|
544
|
00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:42,240
|
包括上周五的时候
|
|
545
|
00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:44,800
|
涨跌加速也非常夸张
|
|
546
|
00:17:44,800 --> 00:17:47,100
|
但你的体感就会很弱
|
|
547
|
00:17:47,100 --> 00:17:48,120
|
这就是
|
|
548
|
00:17:48,120 --> 00:17:50,180
|
情绪反抽期的
|
|
549
|
00:17:50,180 --> 00:17:50,940
|
时候
|
|
550
|
00:17:50,940 --> 00:17:51,960
|
就这个样子
|
|
551
|
00:17:51,960 --> 00:17:54,020
|
好吧他就是要去恶心你的
|
|
552
|
00:17:54,060 --> 00:17:57,140
|
这个阶段就是散户最难受的时候
|
|
553
|
00:17:57,140 --> 00:17:58,660
|
最难受的时候
|
|
554
|
00:17:58,660 --> 00:18:00,720
|
他甚至比退烧期要更难受
|
|
555
|
00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:01,480
|
因为退烧期的吧
|
|
556
|
00:18:01,480 --> 00:18:02,260
|
见顶了
|
|
557
|
00:18:02,260 --> 00:18:03,780
|
大家都知道见顶
|
|
558
|
00:18:03,780 --> 00:18:05,580
|
那你就直接
|
|
559
|
00:18:05,580 --> 00:18:07,120
|
干脆不做不看对吧
|
|
560
|
00:18:07,120 --> 00:18:08,140
|
或者去
|
|
561
|
00:18:08,140 --> 00:18:08,660
|
搞别的
|
|
562
|
00:18:08,660 --> 00:18:10,700
|
但现在就是给你来回
|
|
563
|
00:18:10,700 --> 00:18:11,460
|
电风扇
|
|
564
|
00:18:11,460 --> 00:18:14,020
|
所以在这个阶段一定不要去追高好吧
|
|
565
|
00:18:14,020 --> 00:18:15,060
|
你追高
|
|
566
|
00:18:15,060 --> 00:18:15,560
|
会
|
|
567
|
00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:17,100
|
死得非常惨
|
|
568
|
00:18:17,100 --> 00:18:18,900
|
这是我想跟各位说的
|
|
569
|
00:18:18,900 --> 00:18:23,500
|
不悲观哪怕后面再跌好吧不悲观不悲观
|
|
570
|
00:18:23,500 --> 00:18:25,540
|
哪怕后面再跌也是正常的
|
|
571
|
00:18:25,540 --> 00:18:29,140
|
他再跌下去整个背离就会更大了
|
|
572
|
00:18:29,140 --> 00:18:29,640
|
那么
|
|
573
|
00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:32,720
|
我们对于后面的行情整体来讲就会
|
|
574
|
00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:33,740
|
更为舒服一点
|
|
575
|
00:18:33,740 --> 00:18:37,580
|
那如果你本身已经在这种位置打满仓了
|
|
576
|
00:18:37,580 --> 00:18:38,600
|
对吧那么
|
|
577
|
00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:40,140
|
后面出现上涨
|
|
578
|
00:18:40,140 --> 00:18:41,160
|
是不是你就
|
|
579
|
00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:42,960
|
比较好做替的时候了
|
|
580
|
00:18:42,960 --> 00:18:44,500
|
你就要把自己的仓位
|
|
581
|
00:18:44,500 --> 00:18:45,260
|
进行
|
|
582
|
00:18:45,260 --> 00:18:46,540
|
动一下把你的
|
|
583
|
00:18:46,540 --> 00:18:48,340
|
因为在这种时候
|
|
584
|
00:18:48,340 --> 00:18:49,360
|
其实你
|
|
585
|
00:18:49,360 --> 00:18:53,460
|
如果动一下做替的话是能把你成本
|
|
586
|
00:18:53,460 --> 00:18:55,760
|
降下来的是能够降
|
|
587
|
00:18:55,760 --> 00:18:57,560
|
降挺多的说实话
|
|
588
|
00:18:57,560 --> 00:18:58,580
|
对吧你
|
|
589
|
00:18:58,580 --> 00:18:59,600
|
周五的时候
|
|
590
|
00:18:59,600 --> 00:19:01,660
|
早盘你如果卖的话今天
|
|
591
|
00:19:01,660 --> 00:19:02,420
|
今天你
|
|
592
|
00:19:02,420 --> 00:19:06,520
|
你在一接你整体成本能降多少能降不少的
|
|
593
|
00:19:06,520 --> 00:19:08,560
|
抓住这种时候好好去把你
|
|
594
|
00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:09,840
|
你如果能
|
|
595
|
00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:11,640
|
做替去把你成本降下来
|
|
596
|
00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:13,420
|
如果做不了替
|
|
597
|
00:19:13,420 --> 00:19:15,480
|
那就继续等着呗好吧等
|
|
598
|
00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:16,760
|
反正这一轮
|
|
599
|
00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:18,300
|
科创我是
|
|
600
|
00:19:18,300 --> 00:19:21,620
|
就底部跌出来之后我认为我能看到19001900的话整体代价局部选择
|
|
601
|
00:19:21,620 --> 00:19:23,420
|
我认为我能看到190019的话整体代价局部选择
|
|
602
|
00:19:23,420 --> 00:19:25,220
|
会修复会修复的还不错
|
|
603
|
00:19:25,220 --> 00:19:28,020
|
一些被腰斩的股票甚至能
|
|
604
|
00:19:28,020 --> 00:19:29,060
|
对吧涨25%
|
|
605
|
00:19:29,060 --> 00:19:32,380
|
涨25%我认为
|
|
606
|
00:19:32,380 --> 00:19:34,420
|
还行吧好吧对于你们
|
|
607
|
00:19:34,420 --> 00:19:35,960
|
那这样已经很好了
|
|
608
|
00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:39,540
|
那么到后面再找一轮主线行情直接就做回来了好吧
|
|
609
|
00:19:39,540 --> 00:19:40,320
|
所以我认为
|
|
610
|
00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:42,100
|
整体难度没有那么大
|
|
611
|
00:19:42,100 --> 00:19:44,160
|
现阶段没有那么悲观了
|
|
612
|
00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:45,940
|
没有那么悲观
|
|
613
|
00:19:45,940 --> 00:19:48,260
|
我对于下半年来讲还是看好了
|
|
614
|
00:19:48,260 --> 00:19:49,280
|
好吧
|
|
615
|
00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:51,580
|
所以今天的视频能讲的不多
|
|
616
|
00:19:51,580 --> 00:19:53,120
|
差不多就就到这里吧
|
|
617
|
00:19:53,120 --> 00:19:53,380
|
嗯
|
|
618
|
00:19:53,420 --> 00:19:56,240
|
嗯这周也要开始看
|
|
619
|
00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:59,060
|
强趋势我还有一节没讲
|
|
620
|
00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:00,920
|
我先讲一节看图说话
|
|
621
|
00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:02,800
|
强趋势后面再讲
|
|
622
|
00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:03,600
|
好吧
|
|
623
|
00:20:03,600 --> 00:20:04,700
|
今天视频就到这里
|
|
624
|
00:20:04,700 --> 00:20:05,260
|
谢谢大家
|
